scholarly journals Risk Transfer in an Electricity Market

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (21) ◽  
pp. 2661
Author(s):  
David Esteban Rodriguez ◽  
Alfredo Trespalacios ◽  
David Galeano
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Forward Contracts ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Market Variables

Energy is traded using different products; long-term contracts or electricity forward contracts can assure the future transaction price. However, due to the difficulties in storing electrical energy for long periods and in large amounts, risks must be incorporated when defining contract prices through a Forward Risk Premia (FRP). This study analyzes the transfer of uncertainty from electricity market variables to the FRP in long-term contracts. We evaluate a type of econometric risk with the construction of Autoregressive Distributed Lag contagion models for the FRP using electricity demand, spot price, power generation via different technologies, and the Oceanic Niño Index. As a case study, we consider the Colombian electricity market. Our results show empirical models where the FRP has a short-term response with the following variables: hydropower generation, coal power generation, electricity demand, and Oceanic Niño Index, even though its transaction is reflected one or two years after the occurrence of the event.

scholarly journals Modeling Electricity Price and Quantity Uncertainty: An Application for Hedging with Forward Contracts

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3345
Author(s):  
Alfredo Trespalacios ◽  
Lina M. Cortés ◽  
Javier Perote
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Risk Indicator ◽  
Forward Contracts ◽  
Hedging Strategy ◽  
Hedge Ratio ◽  
Nonparametric Distribution ◽  
Forward Risk Premium

Energy transactions in liberalized markets are subject to price and quantity uncertainty. This paper considers the spot price and energy generation to follow a bivariate semi-nonparametric distribution defined in terms of the Gram–Charlier expansion. This distribution allows us to jointly model not only mean, variance, and correlation but also skewness, kurtosis, and higher-order moments. Based on this model, we propose a static hedging strategy for electricity generators that participate in a competitive market where hedging is carried out through forward contracts that include a risk premium in their valuation. For this purpose, we use Monte Carlo simulation and consider information from the Colombian electricity market as the case study. The results show that the volume of energy to be sold under long-term contracts depends on each electricity generator and the risk assessment made by the market in the forward risk premium. The conditions of skewness, kurtosis, and correlation, as well as the type of the employed risk indicator, affect the hedging strategy that each electricity generator should implement. A positive correlation between the spot price and energy production tends to increase the hedge ratio; meanwhile, negative correlation tends to reduce it. The increase of forward risk premium, on the other hand, reduces the hedge ratio.

scholarly journals The link between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey: Evidence from dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alper Aslan ◽  
BUKET ALTINOZ ◽  
BAKİ OZSOLAK
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Similar Relationship ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This study investigates the relationship between urbanization and air pollution in Turkey. Dynamic ARDL method was used for the period 1960–2014. According to the findings, there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between long-term urbanization and Co2. If urbanization increased by 1%, carbon emissions increased by 0.02%. There is a similar relationship between the shocks that will occur in population growth and Co2 emission in the long term. However, there is a negative and statistically insignificant relationship between the two variables. In the relationship between GDP and Co2, there is a positive relationship in the long term. GDP increase of 1% increases Co2 emissions by 0.11%. There is a similar relationship between long-term GDP shocks and Co2 emissions. According to short-term analysis results, energy consumption increases Co2 emissions by the same rate as GDP. However, the astonishing result of the study emerges here. Empirical results show that a long-term positive shock in energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions and a negative shock increases pollution. According to these results, Turkey has not reached the point of sustainable growth. For this reason, this developing country needs to make regulatory implementations and determine future policies for these impacts affecting air pollution.

scholarly journals DAMPAK PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI, PENGELUARAN RUMAH TANGGA, DAN KETERBUKAAN PERDAGANGAN TERHADAP KONSUMSI ENERGI FINAL DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Bambang Priyo Cahyono ◽  
Yusro Hakimah
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Final Energy ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Final Energy Consumption

This study investigates the impact of economic growth on three main development sectors, household final consumption expenditure, and trade openness towards the growth of final energy consumption in Indonesia using annual data for the period 1972-2016. We applied autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedures which consist of stationarity test, cointegration test, as well as estimation the short-term and long-term relationships. The cointegration test revealed existence cointegration<br />relationship among the variables in the model. In the short-term and long-term model, our results indicated that the growth of value-added in agriculture sector and industry sector, household final consumption expenditures, and trade openness in the short-term and long-term have a significant effect toward final energy consumption in Indonesia, while the growth of value-added in the service sector only given a short-term effect toward final energy consumption in Indonesia. Based on these<br />results, it can be concluded that sustainable economic development in Indonesia needs to be accompanied by the development of new and renewable energy in order to fulfil domestic energy supply which is predicted to continue to increase rapidly in the future.<br />Keyword : final energi consumption, economic development, household final consumption expenditure, trade openness, autoregressive distributed lag modeling<br />JEL Classification : D1, E21, F14, O13, Q43.

COINTEGRATED-BASED FORECAST OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIPS

2021 ◽  
Vol 14(63) (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Klara-Dalma Deszke ◽  
Liliana Duguleana
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Relationship Of

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) are used to estimate the cointegration in the case of long-run relationship of quarterly GDP and Final Consumption in Romania during the period 1995 – 2019. The actual data of 2020 Q1 and Q2 were used to check the best model’s validity. The static and dynamic approaches of the ARDL model were used to forecast the Final Consumption for Q3 and Q4 of the year 2020. Applying the cointegration model shows the long term relationship of GDP and Final Consumption, but also the effects of other factors, seen in the differences of Final Consumption from its Long-Run evolution, and comprised in the cointegrating terms.

Investigating the Roles of Physical Infrastructure, Financial Development and Human Capital on Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-175
Author(s):  
Faroque Ahmed ◽  
Md. Jamal Hossain ◽  
Mohammad Tareque
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Physical Infrastructure ◽  
Long Term Impact

This article investigates the dynamic relationship among physical infrastructure, financial development, human capital and economic growth in Bangladesh, employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound co-integration and Granger causality test for the period 1985–2019. The study finds a significantly positive long-term impact of physical infrastructure and human capital on economic growth. However, the effect of financial development on growth is found to be negative, and the result suggests that financial development will take place with economic growth. From the policy perspective, this study emphasises increasing investment in physical infrastructure and human capital for Bangladesh to foster long-term economic growth.

scholarly journals Research on Risk Control under the Background of Electricity Futures Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 06032
Author(s):  
Suyuan Chang ◽  
Dunnan Liu ◽  
Xiaoyu Li
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Price Difference ◽  
Forward Contracts ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Futures Hedging ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Market Factors

In the process of electricity marketization, the electricity futures market is an effective means to avoid the risk of electricity price fluctuations. Based on the background of the electricity futures market, this article first analyzes the physical and market factors of the price fluctuation risk in the electricity market; then, it studies the principle and implementation effects of the power futures hedging function; finally, the manufacturer’s strategy of hedging based on the price difference between the spot price of electricity and the price of forward contracts has been studied in detail. This article believes that the electricity futures market can effectively hedge the spot market risk, and hedging strategies based on the difference between the spot price and the forward price are better.

scholarly journals The relationship between renewable energy and sustainable development in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (1) ◽  
pp. 012034
Author(s):  
G Syamni ◽  
Wardhiah ◽  
Zulkifli ◽  
M J A Siregar ◽  
Y A Sitepu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract This paper is conducted to examine the relationship between the use of renewable energy and FDI in Indonesia. The data used in this study is secondary data that has been published by the World Bank and accessed in www.Data.worldbank.org. periode 2004-2019. The data analysis method used is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. The results of the study found that the use of renewable energy in the short and long term has a positive effect on Indonesia’s economic growth. Meanwhile, the same thing is also shown from the FDI variable in the short term and long term which has a significant positive effect on economic growth and has a positive effect on economic growth. Finally, with this finding, it is concluded that both the short and long term the Indonesian government needs to make a breakthrough to explore renewable energy sources for economic growth.

scholarly journals Revisiting the effects of relevant factors on Pakistan's agricultural products export

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 12) ◽  
pp. 527-541
Author(s):  
Zaid Ashiq Khan ◽  
Mansoor Ahmed Koondhar ◽  
Noshaba Aziz ◽  
Uzair Ali ◽  
Liu Tianjun
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

Pakistan is an agriculture-based country, so the agricultural sector is known as the backbone of the national economy. Considering the national economy and the agricultural industry, it is necessary to focus on earnings through agricultural products export to improve the livelihood of local farmers. Therefore, the current study aimed to analyse the short-term and long-term factors affecting agricultural products export. The annual time series of 1976–2016 were collected from World Bank indicators, the Food and Agriculture Organization, and the Statistical Bureau of Pakistan. An autoregressive distributed lag, along with a vector error correction model, was employed. A cointegration test showed long-term associations between the selected variables. While the autoregressive distributed lag model confirmed the short-term correlation between area sown and crop production towards agricultural products export, there is no long-term relationship between the selected variables. In addition, the bidirectional correlation between employment in agriculture and agricultural products export was confirmed by the vector error correction model. Therefore, it is essential to increase agricultural production with the available natural resources to increase foreign earnings.

scholarly journals Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016)

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-104
Author(s):  
Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Bound Test

Objective – The preceding three years (2014, 2015, and 2016) saw a drop in the price of oil which has impacted all parts of Omani macroeconomic life. This study aims to identify the association between oil price changes and aggregate household consumption expenditure in the Sultanate by analyzing the long term relationship between the variables of interest. Methodology/Technique – The (ARDL) Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound test of co-integration is used with 27 annual observations obtained between 1990 and 2016. Findings – The statistical results show that there is a long term, positive relationship between the two variables. Novelty – As Oman is heavily dependent on oil, any fluctuation in the price of oil will undoubtedly cause instability in the economy (macroeconomic variables) demonstrating the presence of a robust correlation between consumption and oil prices. The bound test of the ARDL approach demonstrates this relationship. This study is therefore useful for Muscat officials to identify ways to reduce the dependency on oil. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Total Household Consumption Expenditure; Crude Oil Price; Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); Omani Economy. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi. 2019. Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016), J. Bus. Econ. Review 4 (2): 97 – 104. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.2(4) JEL Classification: D1, D13, D19, E30.

scholarly journals Investigating the Income Inequality in Indonesia: An Application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 184-193
Author(s):  
Zulfa Nazli ◽  
Abd. Jamal ◽  
Muhammad Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Skills Training ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study investigates the effect of economic growth, urban population, unemployment, and human capital on income inequality in Indonesia. Annual data collected from World Development Indicator (WDI) is used from 1984 to 2019. The analytical method of this research is Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to examine the short and long-term relationships. The results show that economic growth positively and significantly affects income inequality in the short and long term. The urban population variable has a significant negative effect in the short term but not in the long term. The unemployment variable has a significant positive effect in the long run. Finally, human capital negatively affects the short term while not in the long term. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the government stabilize inequality by increasing progressive taxes, creating jobs, providing soft skills training beyond formal education, and socializing the concept of commuter work.

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