scholarly journals Performance Analysis of Hybrid MTS/MTO Systems with Stochastic Demand and Production

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 1925
Author(s):  
Dieter Fiems ◽  
Eline De Cuypere ◽  
Koen De Turck ◽  
Dieter Claeys
Keyword(s):  
Random Processes ◽  
Numerical Approach ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Threshold Policy ◽  
Order Processing ◽  
Processing Times ◽  
Make To Order ◽  
Make To Stock ◽  
Stochastic Setting ◽  
The Impact

We present a comprehensive numerical approach with reasonably light complexity in terms of implementation and computation for assessing the performance of hybrid make-to-stock (MTS)/make-to-order (MTO) systems. In such hybrid systems, semi-finished products are produced up front and stored in a decoupling inventory. When an order arrives, the products are completed and possibly customised. We study this system in a stochastic setting: demand and production are modelled by random processes. In particular, our model includes two coupled Markovian queues: one queue represents the decoupling inventory and the other the order backlog. These queues are coupled as order processing can only occur when both queues are non-empty. We rely on matrix analytic techniques to study the performance of the MTO/MTS system under non-restrictive stochastic assumptions. In particular, we allow for arrival correlation and non-exponential setup and MTS and MTO processing times, while the hybrid MTS/MTO system is managed by an (s,S)-type threshold policy that governs switching from MTO to MTS and back. By some numerical examples, we assess the impact of inventory control, irregular order arrivals, setup and order processing times on inventory levels and lead times.

scholarly journals Information Sharing in a Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Asymmetric Demand Forecasts

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pan Zhang ◽  
Zhongkai Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Information Sharing ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Collection Efficiency ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Closed Loop Supply Chain ◽  
Make To Order ◽  
Make To Stock ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Demand Forecasts

This paper studies the problem of sharing demand forecast information in a closed-loop supply chain with the manufacturer collecting and remanufacturing. We investigate two scenarios: the “make-to-order” scenario, in which the manufacturer schedules production based on the realized demand, and the “make-to-stock” scenario, in which the manufacturer schedules production before the demand is known. For each scenario, we find that it is possible for the retailer to share his forecast without incentives when the collection efficiency of the manufacturer is high. When the efficiency is moderate, information sharing can be realized by a bargaining mechanism, and when the efficiency is low, non-information sharing is a unique equilibrium. Moreover, the possibility of information sharing in the make-to-stock scenario is higher than that in the make-to-order scenario. In addition, we analyze the impact of demand forecasts’ characteristics on the value of information sharing in both scenarios.

scholarly journals Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip E. Bett ◽  
Gill M. Martin ◽  
Nick Dunstone ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Hazel E. Thornton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
June July ◽  
The Impact

AbstractSeasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June, May–June–July (MJJ), and June–July–August (JJA) 2020 are presented, based on the Met Office GloSea5 system. The three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index, which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression. The June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of precipitation. The forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong, consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three months. However, the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period, leading to observed values that lie outside the 95% prediction intervals of the three-month forecasts. The forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall, whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast, but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not captured. This case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

scholarly journals The Impact of Shape-Based Cue Discriminability on Attentional Performance

Vision ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Olga Lukashova-Sanz ◽  
Siegfried Wahl ◽  
Thomas S. A. Wallis ◽  
Katharina Rifai
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Processing ◽  
Visual Cues ◽  
Human Performance ◽  
Covert Attention ◽  
Orientation Discrimination ◽  
Know How ◽  
Processing Times ◽  
Attentional Performance ◽  
Cue Processing ◽  
The Impact

With rapidly developing technology, visual cues became a powerful tool for deliberate guiding of attention and affecting human performance. Using cues to manipulate attention introduces a trade-off between increased performance in cued, and decreased in not cued, locations. For higher efficacy of visual cues designed to purposely direct user’s attention, it is important to know how manipulation of cue properties affects attention. In this verification study, we addressed how varying cue complexity impacts the allocation of spatial endogenous covert attention in space and time. To gradually vary cue complexity, the discriminability of the cue was systematically modulated using a shape-based design. Performance was compared in attended and unattended locations in an orientation-discrimination task. We evaluated additional temporal costs due to processing of a more complex cue by comparing performance at two different inter-stimulus intervals. From preliminary data, attention scaled with cue discriminability, even for supra-threshold cue discriminability. Furthermore, individual cue processing times partly impacted performance for the most complex, but not simpler cues. We conclude that, first, cue complexity expressed by discriminability modulates endogenous covert attention at supra-threshold cue discriminability levels, with increasing benefits and decreasing costs; second, it is important to consider the temporal processing costs of complex visual cues.

scholarly journals Influence of Age on the Technical Wear of Tenement Houses

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 297
Author(s):  
Jarosław Konior ◽  
Marek Sawicki ◽  
Mariusz Szóstak
Keyword(s):  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Numerical Approach ◽  
Technical Condition ◽  
Visual Methods ◽  
Secondary Importance ◽  
Building Maintenance ◽  
Technical Maintenance ◽  
Traditional Construction ◽  
The Impact

The research presented in the article, which includes methods, models, and conclusions, contains synthetic and analytical model solutions concerning the problems of the technical maintenance and wear of residential buildings with a traditional construction. The cause and effect relationships between the occurrence of damage in the elements of tenement houses (treated as proof of their maintenance conditions), and the size of the technical wear of these elements were determined using a representative and purposefully selected sample of 102 residential buildings erected during the second half of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in Wroclaw’s “Downtown” district. Quantitative damage analysis, which was carried out using empirical (visual) methods of assessing the technical condition of a building, indicates the type and size of damage to the building’s elements that are characteristic for the relevant maintenance conditions. Research concerning the cause–effect relationships (“damage–technical wear”) in observed states allows for a numerical approach to the impact of building maintenance conditions on the degree of the technical wear of its components. The maintenance and exploitation conditions determine the degree of the technical wear of the elements of an old residential building. The exploitation condition of these buildings is manifested by damage to elements caused by water and moisture penetration, which is especially important for poorly maintained buildings. The article shows that the age of the elements of an old residential building with a traditional construction is of secondary importance in the process of the intensity of losing its serviceability value. It was calculated that no more than 30% of the damage of building components is explained by the passage of time, and it is therefore not age that determines the course of the technical wear of the elements of the analyzed tenement houses.

scholarly journals Combining make to order and make to stock

OR Spectrum ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivo J. B. F. Adan ◽  
Jan van der Wal
Keyword(s):  
Make To Order ◽  
Make To Stock
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