scholarly journals Bayesian Framework for Multi-Wave COVID-19 Epidemic Analysis Using Empirical Vaccination Data

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Jiawei Xu ◽  
Yincai Tang
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Social Events ◽  
The One ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the necessity of advanced modeling inference using the limited data of daily cases. Tracking a long-term epidemic trajectory requires explanatory modeling with more complexities than the one with short-time forecasts, especially for the highly vaccinated scenario in the latest phase. With this work, we propose a novel modeling framework that combines an epidemiological model with Bayesian inference to perform an explanatory analysis on the spreading of COVID-19 in Israel. The Bayesian inference is implemented on a modified SEIR compartmental model supplemented by real-time vaccination data and piecewise transmission and infectious rates determined by change points. We illustrate the fitted multi-wave trajectory in Israel with the checkpoints of major changes in publicly announced interventions or critical social events. The result of our modeling framework partly reflects the impact of different stages of mitigation strategies as well as the vaccination effectiveness, and provides forecasts of near future scenarios.

scholarly journals Digital Disruption in Retailing and Beyond

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 187-204
Author(s):  
Heiner Evanschitzky ◽  
Boris Bartikowski ◽  
Tim Baines ◽  
Markus Blut ◽  
Christian Brock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Models ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Service Robots ◽  
Sensory Marketing ◽  
Digital Disruption ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

The increased disruption of business models through digital technologies creates opportunities and challenges for retail businesses and their network partners. Digital transformation – the process of digitalization of previously analogue operations, procedures, organizational tasks, and managerial processes in order to drive value for customers, employees and other stakeholders – is the order of the day. With that in mind, this article provides a purposeful overview of research in the field of digital transformation with a focus on retailing and customer-facing functions of digital technologies such as managing customer journeys, assessing the impact of sensory marketing and the use of service robots on the one hand, and their strategic implications for business models such as servitization on the other. This article concludes by highlighting immediate as well as long-term challenges in the field, with a focus on disruptive technologies, innovations and trends that retail marketing-management will likely face in the near future.

Preaching and Sermons

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Ellison
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Religious Revival ◽  
Early Nineteenth Century ◽  
Denominational Identity ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Prompted by the convulsions of the late eighteenth century and inspired by the expansion of evangelicalism across the North Atlantic world, Protestant Dissenters from the 1790s eagerly subscribed to a millennial vision of a world transformed through missionary activism and religious revival. Voluntary societies proliferated in the early nineteenth century to spread the gospel and transform society at home and overseas. In doing so, they engaged many thousands of converts who felt the call to share their experience of personal conversion with others. Though social respectability and business methods became a notable feature of Victorian Nonconformity, the religious populism of the earlier period did not disappear and religious revival remained a key component of Dissenting experience. The impact of this revitalization was mixed. On the one hand, growth was not sustained in the long term and, to some extent, involvement in interdenominational activity undermined denominational identity; on the other hand, Nonconformists gained a social and political prominence they had not enjoyed since the middle of the seventeenth century and their efforts laid the basis for the twentieth-century explosion of evangelicalism in Africa, Asia, and South America.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Infection during Pregnancy: Risk of Vertical Transmission, Fetal, and Neonatal Outcomes

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Marwa Saadaoui ◽  
Manoj Kumar ◽  
Souhaila Al Khodor
Keyword(s):  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Vertical Transmission ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Pregnancy Risk ◽  
Public Health Challenge ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Critical Public Health ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic is a worldwide, critical public health challenge and is considered one of the most communicable diseases that the world had faced so far. Response and symptoms associated with COVID-19 vary between the different cases recorded, but it is amply described that symptoms become more aggressive in subjects with a weaker immune system. This includes older subjects, patients with chronic diseases, patients with immunosuppression treatment, and pregnant women. Pregnant women are receiving more attention not only because of their altered physiological and immunological function but also for the potential risk of viral vertical transmission to the fetus or infant. However, very limited data about the impact of maternal infection during pregnancy, such as the possibility of vertical transmission in utero, during birth, or via breastfeeding, is available. Moreover, the impact of infection on the newborn in the short and long term remains poorly understood. Therefore, it is vital to collect and analyze data from pregnant women infected with COVID-19 to understand the viral pathophysiology during pregnancy and its effects on the offspring. In this article, we review the current knowledge about pre-and post-natal COVID-19 infection, and we discuss whether vertical transmission takes place in pregnant women infected with the virus and what are the current recommendations that pregnant women should follow in order to be protected from the virus.

scholarly journals High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo M. De Salazar ◽  
Nicholas B. Link ◽  
Karuna Lamarca ◽  
Mauricio Santillana
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Early Effect ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies. Methods We evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2-mRNA vaccine to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, Spain. We monitor all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents once more than 70% of them were fully vaccinated (February–March 2021). We develop a modeling framework based on the relationship between community and LTCFs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July–December 2020). We compute the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction in the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We compare the true observations with the counterfactual predictions. Results We estimate that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population are fully vaccinated, 74% (58–81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36–86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents are prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents is reduced up to 90% (76–93%, 90% CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic conditional on key factors such as vaccine escape, roll out and coverage.

scholarly journals Influence of Customer Attrition on Diffusion of Business Education Services

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-134
Author(s):  
Nitin Sachdeva
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
New Product ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Diffusion Models ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Type I ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Customer Attrition ◽  
The Impact

Innovation diffusion models have been developed by many researchers during the past few decades based on the famous Bass (1969) model. Several such diffusion models have been developed in consideration of price, marketing efforts etc., however, it is hardly seen that customer attrition (disadoption) can play a significant role in long term growth process of any new product or service. This paper defines two types of disadoption process, Type I disadoption and Type II disadoption process, representing disadopters from innovators and imitators, respectively. We illustrate that there is an increase in the market size along with the adoption of new product and this increase is addressed in this paper. The explicit mean value function for the two types of disadoption processes is derived in this paper. The thrust of the research is on studying the management educational services in the Delhi/NCR region of India and the impact of disadoption on the long term growth of such services. In order to validate the proposed modeling framework, we make use of different goodness-of-fit criteria on primary data collected from an institute in Delhi/NCR.

scholarly journals E-Government services in Moldova: Value and opportunities

2018 ◽  
Vol 325 ◽  
pp. 347-358
Author(s):  
Mihai Grecu ◽  
Ilie Costaş ◽  
Artus Reaboi
Keyword(s):  
High Performance ◽  
Electronic Government ◽  
Government Services ◽  
Telecommunications Infrastructure ◽  
Technology Changes ◽  
Multiple Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

Technological progress in ICT has created conditions for a new government paradigm - from a government that leads to a government providing services to society. Technology changes the nature of the connection between government and citizens: governance becomes more participatory and citizens' interests prevail. The impact of e-Government solutions is complex, on multiple levels, depending on the maturity of the models applied and the capacity of citizens and business to assimilate e-Government services. In a short time, electronic government services in Moldova have evolved from simple information services to integrated transactional services. On the one hand, this is due to high performance telecommunications infrastructure (broadband, 2G, 3G and 4G technology) and, on the other hand, to citizens' expectations that boosted recently and determined the government to accelerate the implementation of new e-services, increasingly complex and a better quality. The paper addresses the issue of e-Government services in terms of the value that it gives to the government and to citizens' lives and analyzes opportunities to develop e-Government services in the new technological and social realities.

scholarly journals Experimental Research on the Impact of Interface Temperature on the Adhesion Properties of Clay under the Condition of Different Contacting Time

Geofluids ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Tao Qiu ◽  
Yonggang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Adhesion Force ◽  
Interface Temperature ◽  
Heating Process ◽  
Adhesion Properties ◽  
Interfacial Temperature ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Hot Surface ◽  
Shield Machine ◽  
The Impact

Mud cakes are very likely to occur at the shield cutter when the shield machine passes through a clay stratum, which adhere to the cutter and reduce the excavation efficiency. Due to the thrust of the cutter, the mud cakes are compacted and cause friction at the soil-structure interface, which results in high temperature and aggravates the adhesion, and the effect tends to become stronger as the heating process lasts. In this paper, the effects of the interface temperature and the contacting time between the soil and the hot surface on the adhesion properties of the soil were studied by a self-made adhesion test device. According to the findings, at low interfacial temperature (≤40°C), both the adhesion force and the amount of adhered soil were insignificant in a short term, and the effects were found to be strengthened as the contacting time went on; at the high interfacial temperature (≥50°C), very significant soil adhesion occurred at the structure surface within a short time, and as the contacting time increased, the amount of the adhered soil decreased rapidly while the adhesion force kept increasing, and both tended to remain a constant and become independent with the temperature after a long-term contact. This study is of guiding significance for understanding the formation and development of the shield mud cakes during shield construction.

scholarly journals Beyond novelty effect: a mixed-methods exploration into the motivation for long-term activity tracker use

JAMIA Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grace Shin ◽  
Yuanyuan Feng ◽  
Mohammad Hossein Jarrahi ◽  
Nicci Gafinowitz
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Methods ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Health Informatics ◽  
Novelty Effect ◽  
Activity Tracker ◽  
Monitoring Technologies ◽  
Daily Physical Activities ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objectives Activity trackers hold the promise to support people in managing their health through quantified measurements about their daily physical activities. Monitoring personal health with quantified activity tracker-generated data provides patients with an opportunity to self-manage their health. Many have been conducted within short-time frames; makes it difficult to discover the impact of the activity tracker’s novelty effect or the reasons for the device’s long-term use. This study explores the impact of novelty effect on activity tracker adoption and the motivation for sustained use beyond the novelty period. Materials and methods This study uses a mixed-methods approach that combines both quantitative activity tracker log analysis and qualitative one-on-one interviews to develop a deeper behavioral understanding of 23 Fitbit device users who used their trackers for at least 2 months (range of use = 69–1073 days). Results Log data from users’ Fitbit devices revealed 2 stages: the novelty period and the long-term use period. The novelty period for Fitbit users in this study was approximately 3 months, during which they might have discontinued using their devices. Discussion The qualitative interview data identified various factors that users to continuously use the Fitbit devices in different stages. The discussion of these results provides design implications to guide future development of activity tracking technology. Conclusion This study reveals important dynamics emerging over long-term activity tracker use, contributes new knowledge to consumer health informatics and human-computer interaction, and offers design implications to guide future development of similar health-monitoring technologies that better account for long-term use in support of patient care and health self-management.

The Protection of Turkish Citizens Against Expulsion—This Far and No Further? The Impact of the Ziebell Case

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-267
Author(s):  
Kathrin Hamenstädt
Keyword(s):  
Case Law ◽  
Fundamental Rights ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Court Of Justice ◽  
Council Decision ◽  
European Court ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

This Article focuses on the Ziebell judgment, in which the European Court of Justice rejected the analogous application of the protection against expulsion for Union citizens to Turkish citizens covered by the Association Agreement. The judgment is placed in the context of the opinion of the Advocate General, the pre-Ziebell judgments of the Court, and judgments of German courts regarding the expulsion of Turkish citizens. On the one hand, against the background of previous case-law of the Court, the judgment might be seen as a setback. On the other hand, the Court's reference to the Long-Term Residents Directive also provides for new interpretative possibilities. Next to the applicability of the directive and the advantages and disadvantages for Turkish nationals triggered by this shift, the interpretative possibilities are discussed in light of fundamental rights and the stand-still obligation anchored in Association Council Decision 1/80.

Protest and participation in post-transformation Poland: The case of the Committee for the Defense of Democracy (KOD)

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ireneusz Paweł Karolewski
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Citizen Participation ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Identity Conflict ◽  
Symbolic Politics ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Civil Resistance ◽  
Post Communism ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

The paper explores the recent political participation in Poland focusing on the KOD movement. Given that very limited data is available on the impact of citizen participation in political process in Poland, the paper attempts a preliminary assessment of the participation “between elections”. The paper tries to take a snapshot of the KOD movement and to examine it in the context of civil society concept. The paper argues that the KOD movement is located between civil and political society on the one hand. On the other hand, it draws strongly on the symbolism of the civil resistance during the last two decades of communism. The dichotomy of post-communism and the former anti-communist opposition (including former Solidarity and KOR activists) was relevant for the political participation in Poland in the 1990s and 2000s and, as I argue now, has been replaced by new identity conflict between the symbolic politics of nationhood and the liberal Europeanized vision of politics.

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