scholarly journals Prediction of Damage Accumulation Effect of Wood Structural Members under Long-Term Service: A Machine Learning Approach

Materials ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1243
Author(s):  
Zheng Li ◽  
Duo Tao ◽  
Mengwei Li ◽  
Zhan Shu ◽  
Songshi Jing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Damage Accumulation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Cycle Performance ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Timber Structures ◽  
Structural Members ◽  
Accumulation Effect

It is well known that wood structural members can stand a relatively heavy load in the short term but will gradually get weaker if the load is applied for a longer period. This phenomenon is caused by the damage accumulation effect in wood and should be appropriately considered during the design of timber structures. Although various formulation methods (also known as classical models) have been proposed to evaluate the damage accumulation effect in wood, the calibration of model parameters is very time-consuming. Our work proposes a novel method to deal with the damage accumulation effect in wood that involves the application of machine learning algorithms. The proposed algorithm considers a multi-objective optimization process with a combination of goodness-of-fit and complexity. Long-term experimental data of typical wood species are used for developing the machine learning based damage accumulation model. Compared with existing pre-formulated models, our model managed to reduce the complexity of the model structure and give sufficiently accurate and unbiased predictions. This study aims to provide a novel tool for evaluating the damage accumulation in wood structural members, and the proposed model can further support the life-cycle performance assessment of timber structures under long-term service scenarios.

scholarly journals Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Using SIR, SEIQR, and Machine Learning Models: Australia, Italy, and UK Cases

Information ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iman Rahimi ◽  
Amir H. Gandomi ◽  
Panagiotis G. Asteris ◽  
Fang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Chinese City ◽  
Limited Memory ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus disease, also known as COVID-19, is a disease outbreak that was first identified in Wuhan, a Central Chinese city. In this report, a short analysis focusing on Australia, Italy, and UK is conducted. The analysis includes confirmed and recovered cases and deaths, the growth rate in Australia compared with that in Italy and UK, and the trend of the disease in different Australian regions. Mathematical approaches based on susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases and susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, and recovered (SEIQR) cases models are proposed to predict epidemiology in the above-mentioned countries. Since the performance of the classic forms of SIR and SEIQR depends on parameter settings, some optimization algorithms, namely Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS), conjugate gradients (CG), limited memory bound constrained BFGS (L-BFGS-B), and Nelder–Mead, are proposed to optimize the parameters and the predictive capabilities of the SIR and SEIQR models. The results of the optimized SIR and SEIQR models were compared with those of two well-known machine learning algorithms, i.e., the Prophet algorithm and logistic function. The results demonstrate the different behaviors of these algorithms in different countries as well as the better performance of the improved SIR and SEIQR models. Moreover, the Prophet algorithm was found to provide better prediction performance than the logistic function, as well as better prediction performance for Italy and UK cases than for Australian cases. Therefore, it seems that the Prophet algorithm is suitable for data with an increasing trend in the context of a pandemic. Optimization of SIR and SEIQR model parameters yielded a significant improvement in the prediction accuracy of the models. Despite the availability of several algorithms for trend predictions in this pandemic, there is no single algorithm that would be optimal for all cases.

scholarly journals Long-term streamflow forecasting for the Cascade Reservoir System of Han River using SWAT with CFS output

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 655-671
Author(s):  
Tian Liu ◽  
Yuanfang Chen ◽  
Binquan Li ◽  
Yiming Hu ◽  
Hui Qiu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Han River ◽  
Reservoir System

Abstract Due to the large uncertainties of long-term precipitation prediction and reservoir operation, it is difficult to forecast long-term streamflow for large basins with cascade reservoirs. In this paper, a framework coupling the original Climate Forecasting System (CFS) precipitation with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was proposed to forecast the nine-month streamflow for the Cascade Reservoir System of Han River (CRSHR) including Shiquan, Ankang and Danjiangkou reservoirs. First, CFS precipitation was tested against the observation and post-processed through two machine learning algorithms, random forest and support vector regression. Results showed the correlation coefficients between the monthly areal CFS precipitation (post-processed) and observation were 0.91–0.96, confirming that CFS precipitation post-processing using machine learning was not affected by the extended forecast period. Additionally, two precipitation spatio-temporal distribution models, original CFS and similar historical observation, were adopted to disaggregate the processed monthly areal CFS precipitation to daily subbasin-scale precipitation. Based on the reservoir restoring flow, the regional SWAT was calibrated for CRSHR. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies for three reservoirs flow simulation were 0.86, 0.88 and 0.84, respectively, meeting the accuracy requirement. The experimental forecast showed that for three reservoirs, long-term streamflow forecast with similar historical observed distribution was more accurate than that with original CFS.

scholarly journals PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS FOR PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 32-35
Author(s):  
Jakub Gęca
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Performance Comparison ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Predictive Maintenance ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Reduction Techniques ◽  
Machine Reliability ◽  
Dimensionality Reduction Techniques

The consequences of failures and unscheduled maintenance are the reasons why engineers have been trying to increase the reliability of industrial equipment for years. In modern solutions, predictive maintenance is a frequently used method. It allows to forecast failures and alert about their possibility. This paper presents a summary of the machine learning algorithms that can be used in predictive maintenance and comparison of their performance. The analysis was made on the basis of data set from Microsoft Azure AI Gallery. The paper presents a comprehensive approach to the issue including feature engineering, preprocessing, dimensionality reduction techniques, as well as tuning of model parameters in order to obtain the highest possible performance. The conducted research allowed to conclude that in the analysed case , the best algorithm achieved 99.92% accuracy out of over 122 thousand test data records. In conclusion, predictive maintenance based on machine learning represents the future of machine reliability in industry.

scholarly journals Long-Term-Based Road Blackspot Screening Procedures by Machine Learning Algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 5972
Author(s):  
Nicholas Fiorentini ◽  
Massimo Losa
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Rural Roads ◽  
Priority List ◽  
Screening Procedures ◽  
Accident Case

Screening procedures in road blackspot detection are essential tools for road authorities for quickly gathering insights on the safety level of each road site they manage. This paper suggests a road blackspot screening procedure for two-lane rural roads, relying on five different machine learning algorithms (MLAs) and real long-term traffic data. The network analyzed is the one managed by the Tuscany Region Road Administration, mainly composed of two-lane rural roads. An amount of 995 road sites, where at least one accident occurred in 2012–2016, have been labeled as “Accident Case”. Accordingly, an equal number of sites where no accident occurred in the same period, have been randomly selected and labeled as “Non-Accident Case”. Five different MLAs, namely Logistic Regression, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbor, and Naïve Bayes, have been trained and validated. The output response of the MLAs, i.e., crash occurrence susceptibility, is a binary categorical variable. Therefore, such algorithms aim to classify a road site as likely safe (“Accident Case”) or potentially susceptible to an accident occurrence (“Non-Accident Case”) over five years. Finally, algorithms have been compared by a set of performance metrics, including precision, recall, F1-score, overall accuracy, confusion matrix, and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic. Outcomes show that the Random Forest outperforms the other MLAs with an overall accuracy of 73.53%. Furthermore, all the MLAs do not show overfitting issues. Road authorities could consider MLAs to draw up a priority list of on-site inspections and maintenance interventions.

scholarly journals Novel GIS Based Machine Learning Algorithms for Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

Sensors ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 3777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ataollah Shirzadi ◽  
Karim Soliamani ◽  
Mahmood Habibnejhad ◽  
Ataollah Kavian ◽  
Kamran Chapi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Sample Size ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Promising Alternative ◽  
Statistical Measures

The main objective of this research was to introduce a novel machine learning algorithm of alternating decision tree (ADTree) based on the multiboost (MB), bagging (BA), rotation forest (RF) and random subspace (RS) ensemble algorithms under two scenarios of different sample sizes and raster resolutions for spatial prediction of shallow landslides around Bijar City, Kurdistan Province, Iran. The evaluation of modeling process was checked by some statistical measures and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results show that, for combination of sample sizes of 60%/40% and 70%/30% with a raster resolution of 10 m, the RS model, while, for 80%/20% and 90%/10% with a raster resolution of 20 m, the MB model obtained a high goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy. The RS-ADTree and MB-ADTree ensemble models outperformed the ADTree model in two scenarios. Overall, MB-ADTree in sample size of 80%/20% with a resolution of 20 m (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.942) and sample size of 60%/40% with a resolution of 10 m (AUC = 0.845) had the highest and lowest prediction accuracy, respectively. The findings confirm that the newly proposed models are very promising alternative tools to assist planners and decision makers in the task of managing landslide prone areas.

scholarly journals Use of Machine-Learning Algorithms in Intensified Preoperative Therapy of Pancreatic Cancer to Predict Individual Risk of Relapse

Cancers ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Sala Elarre ◽  
Esther Oyaga-Iriarte ◽  
Kenneth H. Yu ◽  
Vicky Baudin ◽  
Leire Arbea Moreno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Pancreatic Cancer ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Relapse Risk ◽  
Grade 3 ◽  
Risk Of Relapse

Background: Although surgical resection is the only potentially curative treatment for pancreatic cancer (PC), long-term outcomes of this treatment remain poor. The aim of this study is to describe the feasibility of a neoadjuvant treatment with induction polychemotherapy (IPCT) followed by chemoradiation (CRT) in resectable PC, and to develop a machine-learning algorithm to predict risk of relapse. Methods: Forty patients with resectable PC treated in our institution with IPCT (based on mFOLFOXIRI, GEMOX or GEMOXEL) followed by CRT (50 Gy and concurrent Capecitabine) were retrospectively analyzed. Additionally, clinical, pathological and analytical data were collected in order to perform a 2-year relapse-risk predictive population model using machine-learning techniques. Results: A R0 resection was achieved in 90% of the patients. After a median follow-up of 33.5 months, median progression-free survival (PFS) was 18 months and median overall survival (OS) was 39 months. The 3 and 5-year actuarial PFS were 43.8% and 32.3%, respectively. The 3 and 5-year actuarial OS were 51.5% and 34.8%, respectively. Forty-percent of grade 3-4 IPCT toxicity, and 29.7% of grade 3 CRT toxicity were reported. Considering the use of granulocyte colony-stimulating factors, the number of resected lymph nodes, the presence of perineural invasion and the surgical margin status, a logistic regression algorithm predicted the individual 2-year relapse-risk with an accuracy of 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56–0.84, p = 0.005). The model-predicted outcome matched 64% of the observed outcomes in an external dataset. Conclusion: An intensified multimodal neoadjuvant approach (IPCT + CRT) in resectable PC is feasible, with an encouraging long-term outcome. Machine-learning algorithms might be a useful tool to predict individual risk of relapse. A small sample size and therapy heterogeneity remain as potential limitations.

scholarly journals Short- and long-term mortality prediction after an acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in Asians: A machine learning approach

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0254894
Author(s):  
Firdaus Aziz ◽  
Sorayya Malek ◽  
Khairul Shafiq Ibrahim ◽  
Raja Ezman Raja Shariff ◽  
Wan Azman Wan Ahmad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Fasting Blood Glucose ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Timi Score ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Term Mortality

Background Conventional risk score for predicting short and long-term mortality following an ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is often not population specific. Objective Apply machine learning for the prediction and identification of factors associated with short and long-term mortality in Asian STEMI patients and compare with a conventional risk score. Methods The National Cardiovascular Disease Database for Malaysia registry, of a multi-ethnic, heterogeneous Asian population was used for in-hospital (6299 patients), 30-days (3130 patients), and 1-year (2939 patients) model development. 50 variables were considered. Mortality prediction was analysed using feature selection methods with machine learning algorithms and compared to Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score. Invasive management of varying degrees was selected as important variables that improved mortality prediction. Results Model performance using a complete and reduced variable produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.73 to 0.90. The best machine learning model for in-hospital, 30 days, and 1-year outperformed TIMI risk score (AUC = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.846–0.910; vs AUC = 0.81, 95% CI:0.772–0.845, AUC = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.870–0.935; vs AUC = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.746–0.838, AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.798–0.872; vs AUC = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.715–0.802, p < 0.0001 for all). TIMI score underestimates patients’ risk of mortality. 90% of non-survival patients are classified as high risk (>50%) by machine learning algorithm compared to 10–30% non-survival patients by TIMI. Common predictors identified for short- and long-term mortality were age, heart rate, Killip class, fasting blood glucose, prior primary PCI or pharmaco-invasive therapy and diuretics. The final algorithm was converted into an online tool with a database for continuous data archiving for algorithm validation. Conclusions In a multi-ethnic population, patients with STEMI were better classified using the machine learning method compared to TIMI scoring. Machine learning allows for the identification of distinct factors in individual Asian populations for better mortality prediction. Ongoing continuous testing and validation will allow for better risk stratification and potentially alter management and outcomes in the future.

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