scholarly journals Policy Implications on Transport Infrastructure–Trade Dynamics: Case of Turkey

Logistics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Duygu Şahan ◽  
Okan Tuna
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implications ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Transport Networks ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Ict Infrastructure ◽  
Trade Dynamics

Transportation has a mediating position in international trade formation and in the past few decades, Turkey has invested substantially in transport infrastructure to increase connectivity and integration in global transport networks. Still, limited research has been conducted to understand channels and scope of the transport infrastructure development impacts on foreign trade. The objective of this study is to evaluate short-run and long-run causal linkages between transport infrastructure, exports and imports in Turkey for the period between 1987–2019. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is developed considering road and rail transport infrastructure components as well as information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure as a complement to quality transport networks. Results suggest that a speedy road network serves as a locomotive in trade development whereas rail infrastructure can be beneficial if a holistic connectivity plan is developed in a long-term perspective to improve multimodal transportation under a comprehensive, sustained transport policy. Besides, benefits of transport infrastructure investment can be realized in favor of export promotion rather than import growth if a comprehensive policy is followed. In that way transport infrastructure investment would become a stronger instrument to accomplish export competitiveness.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

SOME DETERMINANTS AND MECHANICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES: THE ROLE OF ICT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, TAXATION AND OTHER MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
RUDRA P. PRADHAN ◽  
MAK B. ARVIN ◽  
MAHENDHIRAN NAIR ◽  
SARA E. BENNETT ◽  
SAHAR BAHMANI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Ict Infrastructure

This study examines key factors in the economic growth of middle-income countries over the period 1970–2017. The variables considered are ICT infrastructure development, taxation revenue, government expenditure, gross capital formation, foreign direct investment, and inflation. This study considers interlinkages between the macroeconomic variables noted above. The purpose of this study is to determine: (1) if there is causality between the variables and (2) the direction of any causality. Using a panel vector error-correction model, we find both short-run and long-run relationships between the variables. In each specification, we find that ICT infrastructure development, taxation revenue and the four macroeconomic variables all stimulate economic growth in the long run. This suggests that policymakers should curate an integrated and holistic policy framework pertaining to taxation, ICT infrastructure development and other macroeconomic policies to create a vibrant national economic ecosystem that would ensure the sustained economic growth of middle-income countries.

scholarly journals Testing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Unemployment in Brazil

Economies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ojonugwa Usman ◽  
Osama Elsalih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Real ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Linearity Test

This paper attempts to test the pass-through of the real exchange rate (RERT) to unemployment in Brazil over the period 1981M1–2015M11 using linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. The result of the linearity test suggests that the relationship between RERT and unemployment is linear in the short-run and nonlinear in the long-run. Therefore, using the symmetric ARDL model for the short-run analysis, we find that an increase in the RERT decreases the unemployment rate. The result of the nonlinear ARDL for the long-run analysis shows that the unemployment rate reacts to the RERT appreciations and depreciations differently with depreciations having a strong effect. However, the pass-through of the RERT to unemployment is incomplete both in the short- and long-run. These findings have important policy implications for the designing of appropriate monetary policy in response to a rise in unemployment resulting from a change in the real exchange rate.

scholarly journals Gross National Income Growth and Foreign Direct Investment: Causation in the presence of Crisis in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 3099-3104
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
National Income ◽  
Gross National Income ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive

Gross National Income (GNI) of an economy explicates the standard of living of the population residing in a country. The growth in GNI indicates a successful development for a nation. In this paper, an interrelation between GNI growth and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been discussed in the presence of Indian economic crisis by implementing the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Modelling approach. The data are ranging from the time of 1991 to 2017. The relationship is judged at the background of economic liberalization of India. The result shows that there exists a long-run impact of FDI on GNI growth. The existence of cointegration further necessitates the existence of short-run causality. In the short run, GNI growth Granger causes FDI. This proves that the model is significant for discussion both for the long and short run. The error correction term signifies that there exists a ninety-seven percent chance of the model to move back to its long-run equilibrium from short-run shocks. The reliability and stability of the whole model are judged by implementing CUCUM and CUSUMQ test. Finally, in conclusion, the model chosen for the study has indicated a few policy implications required for enhancing the GNI growth of India to fight back the situation of crisis.

An empirical investigation of the link between infrastructure development and poverty reduction

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (12) ◽  
pp. 1906-1918 ◽  
Author(s):  
Varun Chotia ◽  
N.V.M. Rao
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose India is a developing nation where the marginal benefit of infrastructure development is tremendous. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between infrastructure development and poverty reduction for India using the yearly data from 1991 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the principal component analysis to construct indices for four major sub-sectors, namely, transport, water and sanitation, telecommunications and energy, falling under the broad infrastructure sector and then using these sectorwise indices, the authors construct an overall index which represents infrastructure development. The authors provide evidence on the link between infrastructure development and poverty reduction by using the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach. Findings The ARDL test results suggest that infrastructure development and economic growth reduce poverty in both long run and short run. The causality test confirms that there is a positive and unidirectional causality running from infrastructure development to poverty reduction. Research limitations/implications The study confirms that India’s Infrastructure development plays a vital role in reducing poverty and calls for the Indian Government to adopt economic policies which are aimed at developing and strengthening the infrastructure levels and bringing in more investment in the infrastructure sector in order to help the poor population by making them exposed to better opportunities of employment and income growth, thereby achieving the goal of poverty reduction. Originality/value This paper is a fresh and unique attempt of its kind to empirically investigate the causal relationship between infrastructure development and poverty reduction in India using modern econometric techniques.

Interactions among Infrastructure, Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investments and Economic Growth in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-43
Author(s):  
Rahul Sarania
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Composite Indices

This study examines the dynamic interrelationships among infrastructure, trade openness, foreign direct investments (FDI), economic growth, fixed capital formation, labour and inflation rate in the context of India for the period 1970 to 2018 through the application of Toda–Yamamoto (TY) causality test and the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to offer policy implications of the effectiveness of these important macroeconomic determinants in the short and long-run. This article developed two composite indices, namely, infrastructure development index (INFI) and trade openness index (TOI) and used to see the effectiveness of infrastructure indicators and trade openness on economic growth along with other variables of interest. Results suggest a strong causal short and long run interrelationship among infrastructure, FDIs, trade openness and economic growth during 1970–2018. In the long run, a bi-directional relationship exists between INFI and GDP, suggesting that India should expedite construction of adequate and expanded infrastructure facilities in the economy and among others things, frame its policy in a more liberalised manner for various sectors including infrastructure with a view to attracting more FDI inflows and making more openness to trade and globalisation within the environment of ease of doing business that would help to sustain higher economic growth for long period, accomplishing the goal of US$5 trillion economy by 2024–25. JEL Classification:H54, O1, H4, O4, P33, L9, C32

scholarly journals Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment on Private Infrastructure Investment

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-416
Author(s):  
Faisal Nadeem Shah ◽  
Zainab Fatima ◽  
Bilal Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Capital Formation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Role Of The Government ◽  
Bound Test

The aim of this paper is to find the relationship among government and private capital formation in Pakistan during the period 1981 to 2018. This study employs Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bound test. The results show that government infrastructure investment negatively effects on private infrastructure capital formation in long run and short run, indicating that government infrastructure investment crowds out private infrastructure investment. In determining the role of the government in investment and liberalization policies, the results of this paper have important policy implications.

scholarly journals Impact of Investment in Tourism Infrastructure Development on Attracting International Visitors: A Nonlinear Panel ARDL Approach Using Vietnam’s Data

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Quang Hai Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
International Visitors ◽  
The Impact

Investment in tourism infrastructure development to make destinations and services increasingly attractive is considered a key measure in developing a country’s tourist destinations. This paper investigates the impact of investment in tourism infrastructure components on international visitor attraction using data from Vietnam for the period 1995–2019. The results of analyzing panel data by the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach show that, in the long-run, investing in the three components of tourism infrastructure, namely transport and communications infrastructure, the hotel and restaurant industry, and recreation facilities, has a strong and positive impact on international visitor attraction. In addition, different short-run impacts of the three tourism infrastructure components on the whole market and each major international visitor market are also found.

Public Debt Service in South Africa and Its Impact on Economic Growth: An Empirical Test

2020 ◽  
pp. 003464462096022
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

By applying the autoregressive distributed lag approach, this article investigates the dynamic impact of public debt service on economic growth in South Africa, covering the period from 1970 to 2017. In the recent past, alarming bells have already started sounding about the country’s high debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio amid chronic low GDP growth. The article seeks to contribute to the debate that limiting the proportion of public debt service payments to gross national product can achieve economic growth by freeing domestic resources. The empirical findings of the study show that there is no statistically significant relationship between public debt service and economic growth in South Africa, irrespective of whether the estimations are done in the long run or in the short run. Policy implications are discussed.

scholarly journals Japan’s Inbound Tourism Boom

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (169) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inbound Tourism ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Main Determinants

In this paper, we review developments in Japanese inbound tourism and investigate the main determinants of its rapid growth prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with data on 34 tourism source markets from 1996Q1 to 2018Q4, we find that not only tourist income and tourism-related relative prices, also visa policies have had significant impacts on Japan’s inbound tourism demand in the long run. In the short run, natural disasters have had large and prolonged effects on tourism. We then derive policy implications for the post-COVID-19 revival of Japanese inbound tourism.

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