scholarly journals Significance of Environmental Input Data in Risk Assessment Analyses

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 36-38
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Gruszecka-Kosowska
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Environmental Input

The environment is becoming more and more polluted [...]

A Semi-Quantitative Pipeline Risk Assessment Tool for Piggable and Un-Piggable Pipelines

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunnar Weigold ◽  
Colin Argent ◽  
John Healy ◽  
Ian Diggory
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment Criteria ◽  
Assessment Approach

ROSEN have developed together with MACAW Engineering Ltd. a Risk Assessment Tool that can be applied to both piggable and un-piggable pipelines. The Risk Model is structured to answer three basic questions relating to pipeline integrity: • What threats are active on the pipeline? • Will the active threats result in a leak or a rupture? • What is the company liability (cost) in the event of a failure? The risk assessment criteria on which the model is based are taken from codes and technical papers that have become accepted as industry norms. The Risk Model itself is semi-quantitative and is based on input data that operators should have for all pipelines. The results of the risk assessment provide an objective identification of active threats to pipeline integrity and a first level benchmarking of the operators procedures with regards to industry best practice. The paper will present the fast and robust Risk Assessment Approach and illustrate it’s application by different examples as it was used to identify and prioritize active threats mechanism to optimize maintenance expenditures for effective preservation of pipeline integrity.

A Decision Making Method of Pipeline Risk Assessment

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Lu ◽  
Allison Denby
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Matrix Method ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Mitigation Options ◽  
Score Index

The pipeline risk assessment has been more and more widely used in the industry because of economic factors and regulatory requirements. The three most popular risk assessment methods are qualitative method (simple decision making matrix method), semi-quantitative method (score index method) and quantitative method. The decision-making matrix method greatly depends on expert’s opinion, and does not provide much information to optimize the mitigation program. The quantitative method provides details of mitigation options, mitigation criteria, and prioritizations, but requires a lot of input data that the pipeline operators usually do not have. The score index risk assessment is widely used in the pipeline industry. The input data is relatively easy to acquire. The method provides details of mitigation options and relative risk values. The score index risk assessment is a relative method. Upstream pipeline operators often have questions, such as “Which is the most effective mitigation option to use with my limited resources?” and how the index scores relate with the actual failure frequencies and failure consequence. In order to effectively answer these questions, this paper outlines a method to correlate the probability of failure score with actual failure probability, and leak impact factor score with actual failure consequence in monetary units. Rather than using the final risk score, this method applies the monetarily calibrated consequence factor to the probability of failure so that a normalized and calibrated risk in monetary unit is obtained. By comparing the cost of an estimated mitigation program, the decision can be made based on relative risk. This process is straightforward and practical for industrial application, especially for upstream companies where operators have limited resources to run an in-depth risk assessment. A case study is presented using this method based on upstream pipelines.

scholarly journals Economic-mathematical model for complex risk assessment of the enterprise investment project using fuzzy logic

2021 ◽  
Vol 107 ◽  
pp. 12002
Author(s):  
Inna Chaikovska ◽  
Pavlo Hryhoruk ◽  
Maksym Chaikovskyi
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Linguistic Terms ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Project Risks

The article proposes an economic-mathematical model for determining a comprehensive risk assessment of the investment project of the enterprise which are based on the approaches of A. Nedosekin. The model is built using fuzzy logic and takes into account the probability of occurrence of each of the identified risks and the level of impact of each of them on the project. The probability of risk is set by experts in the form of points and converted into linguistic terms, and the level of influence of each of them on the project – the ratio of benefits and is determined using Fishburne scales. The proposed Project Risk Model consists of the following stages: formation of initial data using expert opinions; construction of a hierarchical project risk tree; determination of weight coefficients (Fishburne weights) of project risks; selection and description of membership function and linguistic variables; conversion of input data provided by experts from a score scale into linguistic terms; recognition of qualitative input data on a linguistic scale; determination of a complex indicator of investment project risks; interpretation of a complex indicator. The developed model allows managing the risks of the project to maximize the probability of its successful implementation, to compare alternative projects and choose less risky, to minimize the level of unforeseen costs of the project.

scholarly journals Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 3135-3160
Author(s):  
Stefan Oberndorfer ◽  
Philip Sander ◽  
Sven Fuchs
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Hazard Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Mountain hazard risk analysis for transport infrastructure is regularly based on deterministic approaches. Standard risk assessment approaches for roads need a variety of variables and data for risk computation, however without considering potential uncertainty in the input data. Consequently, input data needed for risk assessment are normally processed as discrete mean values without scatter or as an individual deterministic value from expert judgement if no statistical data are available. To overcome this gap, we used a probabilistic approach to analyse the effect of input data uncertainty on the results, taking a mountain road in the Eastern European Alps as a case study. The uncertainty of the input data are expressed with potential bandwidths using two different distribution functions. The risk assessment included risk for persons, property risk and risk for non-operational availability exposed to a multi-hazard environment (torrent processes, snow avalanches and rockfall). The study focuses on the epistemic uncertainty of the risk terms (exposure situations, vulnerability factors and monetary values), ignoring potential sources of variation in the hazard analysis. As a result, reliable quantiles of the calculated probability density distributions attributed to the aggregated road risk due to the impact of multiple mountain hazards were compared to the deterministic outcome from the standard guidelines on road safety. The results based on our case study demonstrate that with common deterministic approaches risk might be underestimated in comparison to a probabilistic risk modelling setup, mainly due to epistemic uncertainties of the input data. The study provides added value to further develop standardized road safety guidelines and may therefore be of particular importance for road authorities and political decision-makers.

Frequency of Ship Collisions in the Strait of Messina through Regulatory and Environmental Constraints Assessment

2017 ◽  
Vol 70 (5) ◽  
pp. 1002-1022 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Cucinotta ◽  
E. Guglielmino ◽  
F. Sfravara
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Input Data ◽  
International Association ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Environmental Constraints ◽  
Separation Scheme ◽  
Assessment Program ◽  
Port Authorities ◽  
Regulatory Constraints ◽  
Sea Area

The Strait of Messina is a very busy sea area that separates Sicily and the Italian mainland. In respect of environment and for the prevention of human loss, it is fundamental to have an estimate of the possible ship accidents that could occur. In this work, the approach used is the International Association of Lighthouse Authorities Waterways Risk Assessment Program (IWRAP) model. The first part of the paper describes the local and global traffic and the separation scheme in the Strait of Messina. The model input data is obtained from the Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) system thanks to the Coast Guard of Messina. The second part concerns calculation of the geometrical collisions (number of collisions in different scenarios) and the causation probability. This analysis is the basis for the discussion of new regulatory constraints due to the future realisation of new piers in the south and the planned unification of the two Port Authorities of the two shores into one single authority.

Development of Launch Area Risk Assessment Input Data for Ares I-X

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Gowan ◽  
Robert Cross ◽  
Brett Starr ◽  
James Beaty ◽  
Brian Thompson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Ares I

Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks

2017 ◽  
Vol 125 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 399-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Landquist ◽  
J. Norrman ◽  
A. Lindhe ◽  
T. Norberg ◽  
I.-M. Hassellöv ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

scholarly journals Making Sense of Algorithms: Relational Perception of Contact Tracing and Risk Assessment during COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuncheng Liu ◽  
Ross Graham
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Individual Factors ◽  
Making Sense ◽  
Data Collection And Analysis ◽  
Key Sites ◽  
Relational Interactions ◽  
Over Time

Governments, institutions, and citizens of nearly every nation have been compelled to respond to COVID-19. Many measures have been adopted, including contact tracing and risk assessment, whereby citizen whereabouts are constantly monitored to trace contact with other infectious individuals and isolate contagious parties via algorithmic evaluation of their risk status. This paper investigates how citizens make sense of Health Code (jiankangma), the contact tracing and risk assessment algorithm in China. We probe how people accept or resist the algorithm by examining their ongoing, dynamic, and relational interactions with it over time. By seeking a deeper, iterative understanding of how individuals accept or resist the algorithm, our data unearths three key sites of concern. First, how understandings of algorithmic surveillance shape and are shaped by notions of privacy, including fatalism towards the possibility of true privacy in China and a trade-off narrative between privacy and twin imperatives of public and economic health. Second, how trust in the algorithm is mediated by the perceived competency of the technology, the veracity of input data, and well-publicized failures in both data collection and analysis. Third, how the implementation of Health Code in social life alters beliefs about the algorithm, such as its further role after COVID-19 passes, or contradictory and disorganized enforcement measures upon risk assessment. Chinese citizens make sense of Health Code in a relational fashion, whereby users respond very differently to the same sociotechnical assemblage based upon social and individual factors.

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