scholarly journals Improving Early Warning System Indicators for Crisis Manifestations in the Russian Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 171
Author(s):  
Alexander Semin ◽  
Marina Vasiljeva ◽  
Alexander Sokolov ◽  
Nikolay Kuznetsov ◽  
Maksim Maramygin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Innovative Economy

The study is aimed at determining the oscillators of crisis manifestations when the Russian economy tries to make transition to the path for accelerating technological development and forming an innovative economy. Short-term cycles were determined in the development of the Russian economy from 1995 to the first half of 2020 through the Fourier spectral analysis. Using the Granger test, causal relationships between the leading indicators of the economic crisis and the real GDP index in Russia were identified and substantiated. They reflect the influence of the key rate dynamics on the volume of lending, savings, investments, the yield on securities and the exchange rate; volumes of bank loans per the share of non-performing and bad loans and innovative development of the economy. Based on the constructed neural models of the oscillator influence on the level of real GDP in Russia, it was determined that the rapid growth of bank and mortgage lending, the devaluation of the ruble, a decreased volume of gross foreign investment and the level of innovative development predetermine crisis manifestations in the national economy. The lags of the influence of changes in the leading indicators of the economic crisis on the development of the economy were calculated. The results obtained can contribute to the effectiveness of the anti-crisis regulation strategy in Russia. They can serve as a basis for increasing the efficiency of long-term innovative development and creating appropriate conditions for increasing the scientific and technological potential of the country.

scholarly journals Accelerating the transition to an innovative economy: efficiency increase and innovative investment stimulation under new conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 117-127
Author(s):  
Yuri A. Malenkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Investment Management ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Strategic Approach ◽  
Efficiency Increase ◽  
Innovative Economy ◽  
Scientific Base ◽  
The Way

The problems of accelerating the transition of Russian enterprises to innovative economy are considered. The structure of new factors constraining the transition of the Russian economy to innovative development is revealed, and their analysis is carried out. A number of significant shortcomings of the scientific base of innovative investment management have been identified. New categories of innovative investments and pseudo-investments based on a strategic approach and classification of investments are proposed. The way and recommendations for resolving one of the most important contradiction between business and the state on the choice of ways and of sources of innovative investment are proposed.

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic: The reaction of Russian enterprises and challenges for the post-crisis development

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 228-235
Author(s):  
Yu.V. Simachev ◽  
◽  
T.G. Dolgopyatova ◽  
А.А. Yakovlev ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Large Firms ◽  
Business Associations ◽  
Broad Application ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Regional Markets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Depth Interviews

The paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis caused by it on the activities of firms in six sectors of the Russian economy. On the basis of a series of 45 in-depth interviews with the heads of companies and business associations and Russian and international industrial statistics, we show the reaction of enterprises to the crisis and changes in their models of behavior, as well as differences in the forms of communication between government and business in different sectors of Russian economy. Paper shows that key problems faced by firms in 2020 were emerged before the pandemic. During the crisis better performance was demonstrated by firms which before made significant investment in technological development and used digital technologies. Broad application of distant employment model in 2020 led to aggressive HR policy of large firms from Moscow and St.Petersburg in regional markets and increased competition for high-qualified workers. Sectoral associations played important role as representative of collective interests of business in negotiations with authorities. In the conclusion paper discusses the challenges for business and state in the post-crisis development.

Trends And Characteristics Of Innovation World And Russian Economy

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Prigulnyy
Keyword(s):  
Technological Development ◽  
Innovation Process ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Research And Innovation ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Growth Of Knowledge ◽  
Knowledge Intensive

Innovative development of Russia is explored in the article as a complex process that reflects the latest trends in the production, stockpiling and use of modern knowledge, priorities of scientific and technological development, changes in the structure and dynamics of the financing, development and implementation of innovative technologies in the public research centers, universities and private sector companies economy, formation of research and innovation policies aimed at making the research and preparation for the future of innovation sphere. The problem is to organize support the positive dynamics of the innovation process. The solution is possible based on the integration efforts of the Russian society to create a system of technological and socio-economic forecasting, select sources of funding long-term priorities of fundamental and applied science, education for constructive solutions to the problems facing Russia. In line with the above priorities, the author examined the key factors that characterize tendenuiyu accelerate the innovative development of the Russian economy: the global growth of knowledge-intensive production of gross domestic product, the priorities of the state scientific and technical policy of the most economically developed countries, strategies for high-tech business leaders.

scholarly journals ELEMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN INNOVATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE: INTERACTION AND EFFICIENCY

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (34) ◽  
Author(s):  
A.A KURILOVA ◽  
◽  
L.V SHUKLOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Market ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Innovative Economy ◽  
Economic Balance ◽  
Almost All

Data on socio-economic development show that Russia is one of the largest countries in the world by almost all indicators. For example, in terms of area Russia is in first place in the world, in terms of population in ninth place, and in terms of exports in fifteenth place. Nevertheless, the dynamics of the development of Russia shows an insufficient level of the scientific and production base and the export orientation of the Russian economy. The problems of the unbalanced economy of Russia, with significant positive achievements, clearly manifested itself during the periods of the global crisis of 2008-2009, when the fall in energy prices, along with the increase in the cost of financial resources in the world market, had a significant negative effect on the Russian economy. The second example of problems in the Russian economy was the Crimean crisis of 2014, when the imposition of sanctions and the fall in energy prices caused the collapse of the Russian financial market and significant problems in the economy. Periodically recurring crises make it urgent to reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on the conjuncture of world markets. This is possible through the development of the domestic market and an increase in the share of the innovative economy in the economic balance of Russia. It should be noted that the Russian government has paid and continues to pay attention to the successful innovative development of Russia. An example is the "Strategy for the innovative development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020" approved by the Russian government in 2011. Nevertheless, the 2014 crisis showed the insufficient development of innovation processes in Russia. Therefore, it is relevant to assess the Russian innovation infrastructure in order to identify its strengths and weaknesses.

scholarly journals PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT OF RESOURCE SECTOR IMPACT FOR INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN ECONOMY

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 248-258
Author(s):  
Vladimir V. Shmat
Keyword(s):  
Technological Development ◽  
Innovation Process ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Predictive Assessment ◽  
Severe Uncertainty ◽  
Resource Sector ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Made In ◽  
Scientific And Technological Development

The article notes the need for the transition of the resource sector of the Russian economy to an innovative development path and shows the potential for this. Some results of constructing a scenario forecast of the Russian economy development using the expert-statistical Bayesian method are presented. The peculiarity of the method: it is based on expert estimates and allows you to make forecasts in conditions of severe uncertainty. A predictive assessment of the resource sector impact on innovation in Russia in the period until 2030-2035 was made in the framework of the study. According to experts, the existing potential will not be fully utilized. Insufficient participation of the resource sector in the national innovation process is projected; attraction to import is the most likely. This reflects the general trend of the forecasted scientific and technological development of a country with a “sluggish” innovation market: insufficient supply, insufficient demand and the weak mechanism of the relationship between the first and second.

scholarly journals The path of catching and the path of innovative development: what will Russia choose?

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 743-752
Author(s):  
Elena B. Zavyalova ◽  
Ekaterina I. Shumskaia
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
The Past ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Past Half Century

Over the past half century, global GDP growth has been exceptionally rapid, helped by significant labor force growth and increased labor productivity. Employment growth from 1964 to 2014 decreased from 1.7 to 0.3 % per year. Over the past 20 years, overall productivity growth in OECD countries has also slowed significantly. However, the introduction of digital technology is already changing the picture for the better in developed countries. Therefore, achieving the desired economic growth is seen in increasing labor productivity through the active development and implementation of key technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, but with the need to effectively redistribute existing resources within countries, both developed and developing. As a hypothesis, the thesis was put forward on the need for scientific and technological development as the main answer to the challenges of our time with the aim of further growth and development of the Russian economy. However, the study proved that in modern conditions the main solution for Russia is a more efficient distribution of existing factors of production and, as a result, economic activity. At the same time, further technological and innovative development is necessary from the point of view of long-term economic growth, since the catch-up path has its own logical limit.

Public Procurement and Innovative Economy Forming

2010 ◽  
pp. 108-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Smotritskaya ◽  
S. Chernykh
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
Innovative Activity ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Effective Management ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
Innovative Economy ◽  
Procurement System

The article analyzes the conceptual framework of public procurement system as an integral part of public regulation to ensure effective management of public resources. The authors consider the problems of transition to a new "quality" of the procurement system, increasing its innovative activity. They put forward proposals for institutional framework and mechanisms of regulating procurement, meeting the needs in innovative upgrading and modernization of the Russian economy.

Estimation of welfare costs of inflation: The case of Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 55-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey M. Drobyshevskiy ◽  
Natalia V. Makeeva ◽  
Elena V. Sinelnikova-Muryleva ◽  
Pavel V. Trunin
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Welfare Costs ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Quantitative Estimates ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper is devoted to the estimation of welfare costs of inflation, taking into account the peculiarities of the Russian economy. Theoretical approaches that are used in the literature to analyze the costs of inflation are discussed in the paper. It also provides an overview of the empirical studies of this topic. Research found in academic literature shows that the results of quantitative estimates are extremely sensitive to the choice of the functional form of the money demand equation, as well as to assumptions that are made to simplify the analysis, some of which do not fit Russian data. As a result, we have modified the standard approaches to estimating welfare costs of inflation, taking into account the monetization growth in Russia, and provide quantitative estimates of the magnitude of welfare costs of inflation. The results indicate a significant gain for economic agents in terms of real GDP with a decrease in inflation, which is regarded as a positive effect from the inflation targeting policy.

2008 Economy Results: The End of the "Fat" Years

2009 ◽  
pp. 4-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Zamaraev ◽  
A. Kiyutsevskaya ◽  
A. Nazarova ◽  
E. Sukhanov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Basic Change ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World

The article analyzes the current economic conditions in Russia. Succession, distribution and the transmission mechanism of the world financial and economic crisis to the Russian economy are considered in this article as well as the changes in the banking system, share and housing markets. Production, consumption and investment on the boundary of 2008-2009 are described. The conclusion about the basic change of conditions of national economy development is presented.

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