scholarly journals Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California

Insects ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley Fisher ◽  
Kiana Saniee ◽  
Charis van der Heide ◽  
Jessica Griffiths ◽  
Daniel Meade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monarch Butterfly ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Santa Barbara ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Niche Model ◽  
Complex Region ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
The Future

We use climatic conditions that are associated with known monarch butterfly overwintering groves in California to build a Maxent model, and focus on the fine scale probability of overwintering grove occurrence in a topographically complex region of the state (Santa Barbara County). Grove locations are known from recent and historical surveys and a long-term citizen science database. The climatic niche model performs well, predicting that overwintering habitat is most likely to occur along the coast and at low elevations, as shown by empirical data. We then use climatic variables in conjunction with climate change scenarios to model the future location of overwintering habitat, and find a substantial shift in the predicted distribution. Under a plausible scenario, the probability of occurrence of overwintering habitat directly reflects elevation, with coastal regions having a reduced probability relative to today, and higher elevation sites increasing in probability. Under a more extreme scenario, high probability sites are only located along ridgelines and in mountaintop regions of the county. This predicted shift in distribution is likely to have management implications, as sites that currently lack monarchs may become critical to conservation in the future. Our results suggest that estimating the size of the western overwintering population in the future will be problematic, unless annual counts compensate for a shift in the distribution and a potential change in the number and location of occupied sites.

scholarly journals A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3358
Author(s):  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Michaela Danáčová ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

scholarly journals Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 874
Author(s):  
Jinyue Song ◽  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
Wuhong Han ◽  
Yuxin Yin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Solenopsis Invicta ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Fire Ant ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Suitable Area

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE RIVER LINE OF THE OKA BASIN FOR THE COMING PERIOD OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE XXI CENTURY

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 71-75
Author(s):  
G. Kh. Ismaiylov ◽  
◽  
N.V. Muraschenkova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
21St Century ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
The City

A retrospective analysis and assessment of long-term changes in the annual and seasonal runoff of the Oka River basin over a long 131-year observation period (1881 / 1882–2011/2012) was performed. The changes in the annual distribution of the Oka river runoff over the seasons of the year (spring flood, summer-autumn and winter low water) from its annual value for the selected time periods (before and after 1976/1977) are considered. It has been noted that over the past decades, river runoff has been formed in new climatic conditions associated with global changes and, as a result, regional climate. The assessment of possible changes in the annual and seasonal runoff of the Oka River basin (to the final alignment – the city of Kaluga, with a basin area of 54,900 km2 ) in the first half of the 21st century is carried out. In assessing changes in the river flow of the Oka basin for the future period, the method of trends (trends) is used, based on the identification of cycles in fluctuations in hydrological characteristics and unidirectional trends (trends) inherent in individual phases (ups and downs) of these cycles, as well as to the establishment of functional (correlation) relationships between environmental factors (climatic, anthropogenic) and the nature of the response (river flow). In this case, the trend model serves as an alternative to the homogeneity hypothesis of long-term fluctuations in river flow. The change in the future values of the river flow of the Oka basin was estimated using averaged data of 30-year periods of time characterized by relative stationarity of climatic and hydrological conditions. The dynamics of the average 30-year values of the annual runoff in the upper reaches of the Oka River (the closure target is the city of Kaluga for the period 1881/1882–2011/2012) is considered. Possible forecasted mean annual values of the annual flow of the Oka River for the first half of the 21st century are obtained

scholarly journals Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Darren J. Kriticos ◽  
Ross E. Darnell ◽  
Tania Yonow ◽  
Noboru Ota ◽  
Robert W. Sutherst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Bemisia Tabaci ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Insect Pest ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Niche Model

AbstractProjected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990’s there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic.

scholarly journals Building Climate-Resilient Cotton Production System for Changing Climate Scenarios Using the DSSAT Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10495
Author(s):  
Zoia Arshad Awan ◽  
Tasneem Khaliq ◽  
Muhammad Masood Akhtar ◽  
Asad Imran ◽  
Muhammad Irfan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cropping System ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Cotton Production ◽  
Cotton Crop ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Future

Cotton production is highly vulnerable to climate change, and heat stress is a major constraint in the cotton zone of Punjab, Pakistan. Adaptation is perceived as a critical step to deal with forecasted and unexpected climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to standardize and authenticate a cotton crop model based on climate and crop husbandry data in order to develop an adaptation package for cotton crop production in the wake of climate change. For the study, the data were collected from the cotton-growing areas of Punjab, viz. Bahawalpur and Khanewal. After the calibration and validation against field data, the Cropping System Model CSM–CROPGRO–Cotton in the shell of the decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT) was run with a future climate generated under two representative concentrations pathways (RCPs), viz. RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 with five global circulation models (GCMs). The whole study showed that a model is an artistic tool for examining the temporal variation in cotton and determining the potential impact of planting dates on crop growth, phenology, and yield. The results showed that the future climate would have drastic effects on cotton production in the project area. Reduction in seed cotton yield (SCY) was 25.7% and 32.2% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The comparison of five GCMs showed that a hot/wet climate would be more damaging than other scenarios. The simulations with different production options showed that a 10% and 5% increase in nitrogen and plant population, respectively, compared to the present would be the best strategy in the future. The model further suggested that planting conducted 15 days earlier, combined with the use of water and nitrogen (fertigation), would help to improve yield with 10% less water under the future climate. Overall, the proposed adaptation package would help to recover 33% and 37% of damages in SCY due to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed package would also help the farmers increase crop yield by 7.5% over baseline (current) yield.

scholarly journals Influence of changes of climate on the productivity of pratal and steppe vegetation in the Forest-steppe area of Ukraine

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-29
Author(s):  
A. M. Polevoy ◽  
L. E. Bozhko ◽  
E. A. Barsukova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Steppe Zone ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Natural Fertility ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Potential Productivity ◽  
Steppe Vegetation ◽  
Yield Capacity

The influence of the climate change on the agro-climatic growth conditions, development and formation of productivity of meadow and steppe vegetation in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine for three periods has been studied: 2021–2030, 2031–2040, 2041–2050. The calculations of the expected conditions have been performed according to the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The paper provides an assessment of the agro-climatic conditions for the formation of productivity of meadow and steppe vegetation in the current global warming and further climate change conditions until 2050. The assessment has been performed by comparing the average long-term agro-climatic indicators (1980–2010) of the productivity of wild phytocenoses with the same indicators for the future over decades. The calculations of both average long-term productivity of grasses and productivity of grasses in the conditions of climate change are executed according to four types of productivity: potential productivity which in case of optimum maintenance of plants with heat, moisture and mineral food is defined by solar radiation; meteorologically possible yield, which is provided by the temperature regime and the regime of humidification of the territory; really possible yield capacity, which is provided by the natural fertility of the soil; actual yield capacity in the natural conditions. Key words: meadow, steppe vegetation, productivity, humus balance, photosynthetic potential, agroecological categories of yields, climate change.

scholarly journals Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1122
Author(s):  
Yuncheng Zhao ◽  
Mingyue Zhao ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Chunyi Wang ◽  
Yinlong Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Camellia Sinensis ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tea Production ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climate change has dramatic impacts on the growth and the geographical distribution of tea (Camellia sinensis L.). Assessing the potential distribution of tea will help decision makers to formulate appropriate adaptation measures to use the altered climatic resources and avoid the damage from climate hazards. The objective in this study is to model the current and future distribution of tea species based on the four SSPs scenarios using the MaxEnt model in China. For the modeling procedure, tea growth records in 410 sites and 9 climate variables were used in this paper. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the model. The AUC value was over 0.9 in this study, showing the excellent simulation result of the model. In relation to the current distribution, areas of 82.01 × 104 km2 (8.51% of total land area in China), 115.97 × 104 km2 (12.03% of total land area in China), and 67.14 × 104 km2 (6.97% of total land area in China) were recognized as Marginal, Medium, and Optimal climate suitable habitats for tea over China. Compared to the current distribution, most of the Optimal suitability areas in southeast China would be lost in four scenarios. The area of Marginal and Medium suitable habitats would expand in SSP370 and SSP585, especially in 2041–2061 and 2081–2100. The suitable area of tea would expand northwards and westwards, suggesting that additional new suitable habitats could be created for tea production with the future climate change, especially in Shandong, Henan, Guizhou, and Yunnan Provinces. This research would provide vital scientific understanding for policy making on tea production, tea garden site chosen and adopyion of adaptation methods in the future.

scholarly journals Potential suitable habitat of Eleusine coracana (L) Gaertn (Finger millet) under the climate change scenarios in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Mohan D. Joshi ◽  
Muniappan Rangaswami ◽  
Pramod K. Jha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Finger Millet ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Policy Framing ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Predictive Variables ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
The Future

Abstract Abstract Background: Finger millet is the fourth major crop in Nepal and is cultivated in a traditional integrated subsistence system. Timely rain and appropriate temperature predominately affects crop distribution and yield. Climate change is evident in Nepal and it is imperative to understand how it affects habitat suitability of finger millet. Main objective of this study was to map the current suitable habitat and predicting the potential changes in the future under different climate scenarios in Nepal. Habitat mapping is important for maximizing production and minimizing the loss of local landraces. Results: Maxent model was used in this study to quantify the current suitable habitat and changes in the future habitat suitability of finger millet, based on representative concentration pathways (RCP)(RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) in two different time periods (2050 and 2070AD) using climatic predictive variables and species localities. The model shows that 39.7% (58512.71km2) area of Nepal is highly suitable for finger millet, with cultivation mostly between 96-2300m above sea level. Eastern and central parts of Nepal have more suitable areas than western parts. Our research clearly shows that the future climatic suitable area of finger millet would shrink by 4.3 to 8.9% in 2050 and 8.9-10.5% under different RCPs by 2070. Conclusion: Finger millet is mostly cultivated in mid-hill terraces. The substantial increase in temperature due to climate change may be one reason for decrease in habitat suitability of finger millet. This situation would further threat loss of local landraces of finger millet in the future. The findings can help in planning and policy framing for climate resilient smart agriculture practice. Key words: Climate change, finger millet, habitat suitability, Maxent model

scholarly journals Potential suitable habitat of Eleusine coracana (L) Gaertn (Finger millet) under the climate change scenarios in Nepal

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Mohan D. Joshi ◽  
Muniappan Rangaswami ◽  
Pramod K. Jha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Finger Millet ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Policy Framing ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Predictive Variables ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
The Future

Abstract Background: Finger millet is the fourth major crop in Nepal and is cultivated in a traditional integrated subsistence system. Timely rain and appropriate temperature predominately affects crop distribution and yield. Climate change is evident in Nepal and it is imperative to understand how it affects habitat suitability of finger millet. Mapping the current suitable habitat and predicting the potential changes in the future is important for maximizing production and minimizing the loss of local landraces. Results: Maxent model was used in this study to quantify the current suitable habitat and changes in the future habitat suitability of finger millet under different climate scenarios, based on representative concentration pathways (RCP)(RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) in two different time periods (2050 and 2070AD) using climatic predictive variables and species localities. The model shows that 39.7% (58512.71km 2 ) area of Nepal is highly suitable for finger millet, with cultivation mostly between 96-2300m above sea level. Eastern and central parts of Nepal have more suitable areas than western parts. Our research clearly shows that the future climatic suitable area of finger millet would shrink by 4.3 to 8.9% in 2050 and 8.9-10.5%under different RCPs by 2070. Conclusion: Finger millet is mostly cultivated in mid-hill terraces. The substantial increase in temperature due to climate change may be one reason for decrease in habitat suitability of finger millet. This situation would further threat loss of local landraces of finger millet in the future. The findings can help in planning and policy framing for climate resilient smart agriculture practice. Key words : Climate change, finger millet, habitat suitability, Maxent model

scholarly journals Snow Vulnerability Analysis in the Korean Peninsula using RCP Climate Change Scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 251-259
Author(s):  
Joonhyeok Ha ◽  
Heeseong Park ◽  
Gunhui Chung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vulnerability Analysis ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
State Response ◽  
Thiessen Polygon ◽  
The Future ◽  
Polygon Method

Snow vulnerability analysis was implemented using 400 years of controlled RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios in the following divided periods: the former period (2011-2040), middle period (2041-2070), and later period (2071-2100). Data from a total of 74 meteorological stations were used and the Thiessen polygon method was applied in the areas without stations. The indicators were classified into the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) structure, and the weight for vulnerability analysis was calculated using the entropy method. As snow vulnerability analysis was implemented for the future scenarios, it was difficult to determine social and economic factors as indicators; thus, only predicted weather data and population trends were considered. As a result, the rankings for snow vulnerable areas were determined for each period and scenario. Overall, snow vulnerability would decrease due to the decrease in long-term heavy snowfall in climate change scenarios. However, increased snow vulnerability is also expected in Sejong-si and the western coastal area due to a rise in population and snow depth in the future. Based on this, disaster prevention projects considering the characteristics of the region in the future could be implemented.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document