scholarly journals Plasma Oxalate as a Predictor of Kidney Function Decline in a Primary Hyperoxaluria Cohort

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 3608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronak Jagdeep Shah ◽  
Lisa E. Vaughan ◽  
Felicity T. Enders ◽  
Dawn S. Milliner ◽  
John C. Lieske
Keyword(s):  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Primary Hyperoxaluria ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
End Stage

This retrospective analysis investigated plasma oxalate (POx) as a potential predictor of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among primary hyperoxaluria (PH) patients. PH patients with type 1, 2, and 3, age 2 or older, were identified in the Rare Kidney Stone Consortium (RKSC) PH Registry. Since POx increased with falling estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), patients were stratified by chronic kidney disease (CKD) subgroups (stages 1, 2, 3a, and 3b). POx values were categorized into quartiles for analysis. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for risk of ESKD were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model with a time-dependent covariate. There were 118 patients in the CKD1 group (nine ESKD events during follow-up), 135 in the CKD 2 (29 events), 72 in CKD3a (34 events), and 45 patients in CKD 3b (31 events). During follow-up, POx Q4 was a significant predictor of ESKD compared to Q1 across CKD2 (HR 14.2, 95% CI 1.8–115), 3a (HR 13.7, 95% CI 3.0–62), and 3b stages (HR 5.2, 95% CI 1.1–25), p < 0.05 for all. Within each POx quartile, the ESKD rate was higher in Q4 compared to Q1–Q3. In conclusion, among patients with PH, higher POx concentration was a risk factor for ESKD, particularly in advanced CKD stages.

scholarly journals Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Farhadian ◽  
Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽  
Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽  
Hossein Mahjub
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

scholarly journals Elevated plasma growth and differentiation factor 15 predicts incident anemia in older adults aged 60 years and older

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuko Yamaguchi ◽  
Marta Zampino ◽  
Toshiko Tanaka ◽  
Stefania Bandinelli ◽  
Yusuke Osawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Differentiation Factor ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Anemia is common in older adults and associated with greater morbidity and mortality. The causes of anemia in older adults have not been completely characterized. Although elevated circulating growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been associated with anemia in older adults, it is not known whether elevated GDF-15 predicts the development of anemia. Methods We examined the relationship between plasma GDF-15 concentrations at baseline in 708 non-anemic adults, aged 60 years and older, with incident anemia during 15 years of follow-up among participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study. Results During follow-up, 179 (25.3%) participants developed anemia. The proportion of participants who developed anemia from the lowest to highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 was 12.9%, 20.1%, 21.2%, and 45.8%, respectively. Adults in the highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 had an increased risk of developing anemia (Hazards Ratio 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.21, P&lt;.0001) compared to those in the lower three quartiles in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, serum iron, soluble transferrin receptor, ferritin, vitamin B12, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Conclusions Circulating GDF-15 is an independent predictor for the development of anemia in older adults.

scholarly journals Clinical impact of regression from sustained to paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Fujino ◽  
H Ogawa ◽  
S Ikeda ◽  
K Doi ◽  
Y Hamatani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Death ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Clinical Impact ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cardiac Events ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Adverse Cardiac Events

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) commonly progresses from paroxysmal type to sustained type in the natural course of the disease, and we previously demonstrated that the progression of AF was associated with increased risk of clinical adverse events. There are some patients, though less frequently, who regress from sustained to paroxysmal AF, but the clinical impact of the regression of AF remains unknown. Purpose We sought to investigate whether regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF is associated with better clinical outcomes. Methods Using the dataset of the Fushimi AF Registry, patients who were diagnosed as sustained (persistent or permanent) AF at baseline were studied. Conversion of sustained AF to paroxysmal AF during follow-up was defined as regression of AF. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as the composite of cardiac death, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Event rates were compared between the patients with and without regression of AF. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, predictors of MACE were identified using Cox proportional hazards model. Results Among 2,253 patients who were diagnosed as sustained AF at baseline, regression of AF was observed in 9.0% (202/2,253, 2.0 per 100 patient-years) during a median follow-up of 4.0 years. Of these, 24.3% (49/202, 4.6 per 100 patient-years) of the patients finally recurred to sustained AF during follow-up. The proportion of asymptomatic patients was lower in patients with regression of AF than those without (with vs without regression; 49.0% vs 69.5%, p&lt;0.01). The percentage of beta-blocker use at baseline was similar between the two groups (37.2% vs 33.8%, p=0.34). The prevalence of patients who underwent catheter ablation or electrical cardioversion during follow-up was higher in patients with regression of AF (catheter ablation: 15.8% vs 5.5%; p&lt;0.01, cardioversion: 4.0% vs 1.4%; p&lt;0.01, respectively). The rate of MACE was significantly lower in patients with regression of AF as compared with patients who maintained sustained AF (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 patient-years, log-rank p&lt;0.01). Figure shows the Kaplan-Meier curves for MACE, cardiac death, hospitalization for heart failure, and stroke. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, multivariable Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that regression of AF was an independent predictor of lower MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28 to 0.88, p=0.02), stroke (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.88, p=0.02), and hospitalization for HF (HR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.85, p=0.01). Conclusion Regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF was associated with a lower incidence of adverse cardiac events. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Risk factors for disease progression in low-teens normal-tension glaucoma

2019 ◽  
Vol 104 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sung Uk Baek ◽  
Ahnul Ha ◽  
Dai Woo Kim ◽  
Jin Wook Jeoung ◽  
Ki Ho Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Disease Progression ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Normal Tension Glaucoma ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Diurnal Iop

Background/AimsTo investigate the risk factors for disease progression of normal-tension glaucoma (NTG) with pretreatment intraocular pressure (IOP) in the low-teens.MethodsOne-hundred and two (102) eyes of 102 patients with NTG with pretreatment IOP≤12 mm Hg who had been followed up for more than 60 months were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were divided into progressor and non-progressor groups according to visual field (VF) progression as correlated with change of optic disc or retinal nerve fibre layer defect. Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics including diurnal IOP and 24 hours blood pressure (BP) were compared between the two groups. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the risk factors for disease progression.ResultsThirty-six patients (35.3%) were classified as progressors and 66 (64.7%) as non-progressors. Between the two groups, no significant differences were found in the follow-up periods (8.7±3.4 vs 7.7±3.2 years; p=0.138), baseline VF mean deviation (−4.50±5.65 vs −3.56±4.30 dB; p=0.348) or pretreatment IOP (11.34±1.21 vs 11.17±1.06 mm Hg; p=0.121). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model indicated that greater diurnal IOP at baseline (HR=1.609; p=0.004), greater fluctuation of diastolic BP (DBP; HR=1.058; p=0.002) and presence of optic disc haemorrhage during follow-up (DH; HR=3.664; p=0.001) were risk factors for glaucoma progression.ConclusionIn the low-teens NTG eyes, 35.3% showed glaucoma progression during the average 8.7 years of follow-up. Fluctuation of DBP and diurnal IOP as well as DH were significantly associated with greater probability of disease progression.

scholarly journals Hyperlipidemia and Statins Use for the Risk of New Diagnosed Sarcopenia in Patients with Chronic Kidney: A Population-Based Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min-Hua Lin ◽  
She-Yu Chiu ◽  
Pei-Hsuan Chang ◽  
Yu-Liang Lai ◽  
Pau-Chung Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Research Database ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Hazards Model

Background: Previous research found that statins, in addition to its efficiency in treating hyperlipidemia, may also incur adverse drug reactions, which mainly include myopathies and abnormalities in liver function. Aim: This study aims to assess the risk for newly onset sarcopenia among patients with chronic kidney disease using statins. Material and Method: In a nationwide retrospective population-based cohort study, 75,637 clinically confirmed cases of chronic kidney disease between 1997 and 2011were selected from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan. The selection of the chronic kidney disease cohort included a discharge diagnosis with chronic kidney disease or more than 3 outpatient visits with the diagnosis of chronic kidney disease found within 1 year. After consideration of patient exclusions, we finally got a total number of 67,001 cases of chronic kidney disease in the study. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to perform preliminary analysis on the effect of statins usage on the occurrence of newly diagnosed sarcopenia; the Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates was conducted to take into consideration the individual temporal differences in medication usage, and calculated the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval after controlling for gender, age, income, and urbanization. Results: Our main findings indicated that patients with chronic kidney disease who use statins seem to effectively prevent patients from occurrences of sarcopenia, high dosage of statins seem to show more significant protective effects, and the results are similar over long-term follow-up. In addition, the risk for newly diagnosed sarcopenia among patients with lipophilic statins treatment was lower than that among patients with hydrophilic statins treatment. Conclusion: It seems that patients with chronic kidney disease could receive statin treatment to reduce the occurrence of newly diagnosed sarcopenia. Additionally, a higher dosage of statins could reduce the incidence of newly diagnosed sarcopenia in patients with chronic kidney disease.

Natural history of t(11;14) multiple myeloma (MM).

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 8014-8014
Author(s):  
Arjun Lakshman ◽  
Muhamad Alhaj Moustafa ◽  
S.Vincent Rajkumar ◽  
Angela Dispenzieri ◽  
Morie A. Gertz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Induction Therapy ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cell Transplant ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Best Response

8014 Background: t(11;14) is a standard risk cytogenetic marker in MM. Methods: We reviewed 366 patients with MM who had t(11;14) by FISH and 732 age and period-matched controls without t(11;14), seen at our institution from 2004 to 2014 and outcomes were analyzed using time to first progression or death (PFS1) and overall survival (OS). Results: For the t(11;14) group at diagnosis, the median age was 63.7 yr (range, 22.1-95.4) with 64.5% of patients being male. Eighty nine (24.3%) patients were above 70 yr of age at diagnosis. 33.8%, 40.3% and 25.9% patients belonged to ISS 1, II and III stages respectively. 13% patients had elevated LDH. Monosomy 17 or del 17p were identified in 10.6% patients. The median follow up period was 56.9 months (m) (95% CI: 54.6-62.2) and 209 (57.1%) patients were alive at last follow-up. Among patients receiving proteasome inhibitor (PI)-based, immunomodulator (IMiD)-based, PI+IMiD based or other agent based induction therapy, 71.2%, 70.3%, 90.4% and 37.5% patients respectively attained ≥PR as best response to induction (p < 0.01). During their course, 223 (60.9%) patients underwent stem cell transplant. Median PFS1 and OS were 23.1 (CI: 20.8-27.9) and 78.6 (CI: 66.7-105.9) m respectively. Among the controls, high risk cytogenetics (HRC) was present in 142 (19.4%), and the median OS was 83.8 m (CI: 70.8-97.0) being comparable to t(11;14) group (p = 0.8). For all 1098 patients, using a Cox-proportional hazards model with age > 70 years, induction therapy (novel agent-based vs others), cytogenetics [HRC vs t(11;14) without HRC vs no HRC or t(11;14)], and ISS stage III vs II/I as predictors, age > 70 years [HR-2.2 (CI: 1.8-2.8) and p < 0.01], ISS III vs ISS II/I [HR-1.4 (CI: 1.1-1.8) and p < 0.01] and HRC [HR of 2.1 (CI: 1.6-2.8) vs no HRC or t(11;14) (p < 0.01) and 1.9 (CI = 1.4-2.6) for t(11;14) without HRC (p < 0.01)were associated with reduced OS. The risk for reduced OS did not differ between t(11;14) without HRC, and those without t(11;14) or HRC [HR-1.1 (CI: 0.9-1.4), p = 0.4]. Conclusions: Our study characterizes the outcomes of a large cohort of MM patients with t(11;14) at diagnosis. Advanced age, HRC and advanced stage at diagnosis were associated with worse OS in our cohort. t(11;14) MM without HRC does not differ in outcome compared to non-t(11;14) MM without HRC.

scholarly journals Survival of Captive Chimpanzees: Impact of Location and Transfers

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Lauer
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Random Survival Forests ◽  
Survival Forests

AbstractTo inform the retirement of NIH-owned chimpanzees, we analyzed the outcomes of 764 NIH-owned chimpanzees that were located at various points in time in at least one of 4 specific locations. All chimpanzees considered were alive and at least 10 years of age on January 1, 2005; transfers to a federal sanctuary began a few months later. During a median follow-up of just over 7 years, there were 314 deaths. In a Cox proportional hazards model that accounted for age, sex, and location (which was treated as a time-dependent covariate), age and sex were strong predictors of mortality, but location was only marginally predictive. Among 273 chimpanzees who were transferred to the federal sanctuary, we found no material increased risk in mortality in the first 30 days after arrival. During a median follow-up at the sanctuary of 3.5 years, age was strongly predictive of mortality, but other variables – sex, season of arrival, and ambient temperature on the day of arrival – were not predictive. We confirmed our regression findings using random survival forests. In summary, in a large cohort of captive chimpanzees, we find no evidence of materially important associations of location of residence or recent transfer with premature mortality.

Substance Use is a Robust Predictor of Adolescent Recidivism

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Stoolmiller ◽  
Elaine A. Blechman
Keyword(s):  
Substance Use ◽  
Juvenile Offenders ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Best Fitting ◽  
Data Source

How well does substance use predict adolescent recidivism? When the Cox proportional hazards model was applied to officially recorded first rearrest of 505 juvenile offenders, a best-fitting complex multivariate model indicated that: (a) parent reports that youths “often” use substances more than doubles first rearrest risk, (b) averaged youth and parent substance use reports predict recidivism better than a single source, (c) parent or youth denial of youth substance use predicts recidivism, (d) age at first arrest does not predict recidivism, (e) non-White/non-Asians have a 79% higher recidivism risk than peers, (f) parent-reported delinquency predicts recidivism with declining accuracy, and (g) substance use robustly predicts recidivism despite prior reported delinquency, gender, ethnicity, age, follow-up time, or data source. Findings are related to host-provocation theory.

scholarly journals Outcomes of Constrained Prostheses in Primary and Revision TKR

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (5_suppl5) ◽  
pp. 2325967117S0016
Author(s):  
Ben Parkinson ◽  
Michelle Lorimer ◽  
Peter Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Knee Prostheses ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
Total Knee

Introduction: The decision to use varus/valgus constrained or hinge knee prostheses in complex Total Knee Replacement (TKR) cases is difficult. There are few publications that compare survival rates, to aid this decision-making. This study compares the survival rates of unlinked fully constrained and hinge constrained prostheses in the primary and revision settings. Methods: Data from the AOANJRR to 31st of December 2013 was analysed to determine the survival rate of unlinked and hinge constrained TKR in the primary and revision settings (excluding the diagnosis of tumour and infection). Only first-time revisions of a known primary TKR were included in the revision analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimates of survivorship were calculated for the two categories of constraint and were matched for age and diagnosis in both primary and revision TKR situations. Hazard ratios using the Cox proportional-hazards model were used. The survivorship of individual prosthesis models was determined. Results: There were 3237 prostheses implanted during the study period that met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 1896 were for primary TKR and 1341 for revision TKR. There were 1349 unlinked fully constrained and 547 hinge prostheses for primary TKR and 991 unlinked fully constrained and 350 hinge prostheses for revision TKR. In both the primary and revision settings when matched by age, there was no difference in rates of revision for either level of constraint. When matched by indication in the primary setting, there was no difference in the rates of revision for either level of constraint. The rate of revision for both categories of constrained prosthesis was significantly higher in younger patients <55 years of age (p < 0.05). There were no differences in survival rates of individual models of constrained TKR. Conclusions: The survival rates of unlinked constrained and hinge knee prostheses are similar when matched by age or diagnosis. In complex TKR instability cases, surgeons should feel confident in choosing the appropriate prosthesis to gain a stable knee and need not be concerned that a hinge prosthesis may carry a higher revision rate.

scholarly journals Prognostic role of BNP in children undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease: analysis of prediction models incorporating standard risk factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Cantinotti ◽  
Raffaele Giordano ◽  
Marco Scalese ◽  
Sabrina Molinaro ◽  
Francesca della Pina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Surgery ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Pediatric Cardiac Surgery ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Hazard Ratios

AbstractThe routine use of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) in pediatric cardiac surgery remains controversial. Our aim was to test whether BNP adds information to predict risk in pediatric cardiac surgery.In all, 587 children undergoing cardiac surgery (median age 6.3 months; 1.2–35.9 months) were prospectively enrolled at a single institution. BNP was measured pre-operatively, on every post-operative day in the intensive care unit, and before discharge. The primary outcome was major complications and length ventilator stay >15 days. A first risk prediction model was fitted using Cox proportional hazards model with age, body surface area and Aristotle score as continuous predictors. A second model was built adding cardiopulmonary bypass time and arterial lactate at the end of operation to the first model. Then, peak post-operative log-BNP was added to both models. Analysis to test discrimination, calibration, and reclassification were performed.BNP increased after surgery (p<0.001), peaking at a mean of 63.7 h (median 36 h, interquartile range 12–84 h) post-operatively and decreased thereafter. The hazard ratios (HR) for peak-BNP were highly significant (first model HR=1.40, p=0.006, second model HR=1.44, p=0.008), and the log-likelihood improved with the addition of BNP at 12 h (p=0.006; p=0.009). The adjunction of peak-BNP significantly improved the area under the ROC curve (first model p<0.001; second model p<0.001). The adjunction of peak-BNP also resulted in a net gain in reclassification proportion (first model NRI=0.089, p<0.001; second model NRI=0.139, p=0.003).Our data indicates that BNP may improve the risk prediction in pediatric cardiac surgery, supporting its routine use in this setting.

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