scholarly journals Evaluating Temporal Approximation Methods Using Burglary Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 386
Author(s):  
Lukas Oswald ◽  
Michael Leitner
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Approximation Methods ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Occurrence Time ◽  
Criminal Intelligence ◽  
Time Stamps ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Crime Types ◽  
The City ◽  
Intelligence Service

Law enforcement is very interested in knowing when a crime has happened. Unfortunately, the occurrence time of a crime is often not exactly known. In such circumstances, estimating the most likely time that a crime has happened is crucial for spatio-temporal analysis. The main purpose of this research is to introduce two novel temporal approximation methods, termed retrospective temporal analysis (RTA) and extended retrospective temporal analysis (RTAext). Both methods are compared to six existing temporal approximation methods and subsequently evaluated in order to identify the method that can most accurately estimate the occurrence time of crimes. This research is conducted with 100,000+ burglary crimes from the city of Vienna, Austria provided by the Criminal Intelligence Service Austria, from 2009–2015. The RTA method assumes that crimes in the immediate past occur at very similar times as in the present and in the future. Historical crimes with accurately known time stamps can therefore be applied to estimate when crimes occur in the present/future. The RTAext method enhances one existing temporal approximation method, aoristicext, with probability values derived from historical crime data with accurately known time stamps. The results show that the RTA method performs superiorly to all other temporal approximation methods, including the novel RTAext method, in two out of the three crime types analyzed. Additionally, the RTAext method shows very good results that are similar to the best performing existing approximation methods.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal Analysis of Urban Growth and Its Effects on Wetlands in Rwanda: The Case of Rwampara Wetland in the City of Kigali

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (9) ◽  
pp. 1495-1501
Author(s):  
G. Rwanyiziri ◽  
C. Kayitesi ◽  
M. Mugabowindekwe ◽  
R.V. Byizigiro ◽  
E. Muyombano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Wetland Management ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
High Population ◽  
Central Administration ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Wetland Resources ◽  
The City

This study aimed at analyzing the spatio-temporal patterns of urban growth and its effects on Rwampara wetland, located in the City of Kigali,  Rwanda. First, the study was based on the application of remote sensing technology, where 4 Landsat images (1987, 1999, 2009 & 2018) were  classified using maximum likelihood classification algorithm. This helped in analyzing the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) trends in the study area. Secondly, it used the existing LULC data for the years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018 in order to investigate the overall changes in LULC in Kigali City. Finally, semi-structured interviews were used to collect data from local people and decision-makers about their past and future management strategies of Rwampara wetland. In this regard, 30 local communities (mainly natives from the study area), 15 local government authorities at sector and district levels as well as 4 senior government authorities in the central administration were interviewed. The findings revealed that over the past 4 decades, urban growth in Kigali City has rapidly increased at the expense of resource degradation in Rwampara wetland. Specifically, there has been an increase of about 77% of the built-up area over the last 31 years (1987-2018) which has led to the decrease of the wetland surface area from 24 ha in 1987 to only 7.7 ha in 2018. The results also revealed that demographic factors (i.e. a high population growth rate and high population  densities) were mainly responsible for urban growth and degradation of wetland resources in the area under investigation. Keywords: urban growth, wetland, wetland resources, wetland degradation, wetland management

scholarly journals The spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ezra Gayawan ◽  
Olawale Awe ◽  
Bamidele M Oseni ◽  
Ikemefuna C. Uzochukwu ◽  
Adeshina Adekunle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
The Novel ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Disease Patterns ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The City

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in the city of Wuhan, China in December 2019. Although, the disease appears on the African continent late, it has spread to virtually all the countries. We provide early spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 within the first 62 days of the disease’s appearance on the African continent. We used a two-parameter hurdle Poisson model to simultaneously analyze the zero counts and the frequency of occurrence. We investigate the effects of important healthcare capacities including hospital beds and number of medical doctors in the different countries. The results show that cases of the pandemic vary geographically across Africa with notable high incidence in neighboring countries particularly in West and North Africa. The burden of the disease (per 100,000) was most felt in Djibouti Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria. Temporally, during the first 4 weeks, the burden was highest in Senegal, Egypt and Mauritania, but by mid-April it shifted to Somalia, Chad, Guinea, Tanzania, Gabon, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. Currently, Namibia, Angola, South Sudan, Burundi and Uganda have the least burden. The findings could be useful in implementing epidemiological intervention and allocation of scarce resources based on heterogeneity of the disease patterns.

scholarly journals Monitoring and Landscape Quantification of Uncontrolled Urbanisation in Oasis Regions: The Case of Adrar City in Algeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-219
Author(s):  
Assoule Dechaicha ◽  
Adel Daikh ◽  
Djamel Alkama
Keyword(s):  
Landscape Metrics ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Monitoring And Evaluation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Multi Temporal ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Landsat Satellite ◽  
Landscape Transformations ◽  
The City

Nowadays, uncontrolled urbanisation is one of the major problems facing Algerian oasis regions. The monitoring and evaluation of its landscape transformations remain a key step for any oasis sustainability project. This study highlights the evolution of spatial growth in the city of Adrar in southern Algeria during the period 1986-2016 by establishing a Spatio-temporal mapping and landscape quantification. The methodological approach is based on a multi-temporal analysis of Landsat satellite images for 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2016, and the application of landscape metrics. The results show two opposite spatial trends: significant growth of built-up areas against an excessive loss of palm groves. The landscape metrics allowed the identification of a progressive fragmentation process characterising the palm groves. Thus, the findings of this study show the utility of satellite imagery and landscape metrics approach for monitoring urbanisation patterns and assessing their impacts on oasis ecosystems.

scholarly journals A Proposal for Redesigning the Water Quality Network of the Tunjuelo River in Bogotá, Colombia through a Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Resources ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Peña-Guzmán ◽  
Lina Soto ◽  
Angie Diaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Surface Water Quality ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Government Agencies ◽  
Urban Center ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Analysis ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The City

Bogotá is the capital of Colombia and represents the most important urban center in the country. Bogotá’s population and economic growth have accelerated exponentially in recent years and this growth has brought with it a variety of environmental impacts, including degradation of surface water quality. Government agencies have developed the water quality network of Bogotá that spans across four large rivers, including the Tunjuelo. According to measurements since 2009, water quality has changed in association with the dynamics of the city. This article utilizes a spatial and temporal analysis with multivariate statistics (Principal Components Analyses, dendograms, and Kruskal-Wallis) to propose a redesign of the Tunjuelo River water quality network. Based on these analyses, the number of monitoring stations can be reduced from nine to seven and the measurement frequency can be reduced. Together, the proposed spatial and temporal redesign would reduce the sample acquisition and analysis costs across the network by 50%.

scholarly journals Estimating and predicting the temporal information of apartment burglaries that possess imprecise time stamps: A comparative study using eight different temporal approximation methods in Vienna, Austria

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0253591
Author(s):  
Philip Glasner ◽  
Michael Leitner ◽  
Lukas Oswald
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Study ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Temporal Information ◽  
New Method ◽  
Approximation Methods ◽  
Seasonal Differences ◽  
Crime Data ◽  
Time Stamps ◽  
The One

This research compares and evaluates different approaches to approximate offense times of crimes. It contributes to and extends all previously proposed naïve and aoristic temporal approximation methods and one recent study [1] that showed that the addition of historical crimes with accurately known time stamps to temporal approximation methods can outperform all traditional approximation methods. It is paramount to work with crime data that possess precise temporal information to conduct reliable (spatiotemporal) analysis and modeling. This study contributes to and extends existing studies on temporal analysis. One novel and one relatively new temporal approximation methods are introduced that rely on weighting aoristic scores with historic offenses with exactly known offense times. It is hypothesized that these methods enhance the accuracy of the temporal approximation. In total, eight different methods are evaluated for apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, for yearly and seasonal differences. Results show that the one novel and one relatively new method applied in this research outperform all other existing approximation methods to estimate and predict offense times. These two methods are particularly useful for both researchers and practitioners, who often work with temporally imprecise crime data.

scholarly journals Determination of the Long-Term Ground Surface Displacements Using a PSI Technique—Case Study on Wrocław (Poland)

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3343
Author(s):  
Piotr Grzempowski ◽  
Janusz Badura ◽  
Wojciech Milczarek ◽  
Jan Blachowski ◽  
Tadeusz Głowacki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Surface ◽  
Surface Displacement ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Recent Measurement ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Surface Displacements ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Potential Factors ◽  
The City

Wrocław is a major city located in the southwestern part of Poland in an aseismic tectonic fault zone. Slow, long-term, vertical displacements have been observed there from the 1930s based on the levelling network measurements with the use of a precise levelling method. Due to the high cost of classic surveys, these were performed at intervals of several decades and the most recent measurement of ground surface displacement was performed in 1999. The main aim of this study is to determine the ground surface displacements on the area of Wrocław in the 1995–2019 period, the spatio-temporal analysis of deformations and the identification of the potential factors causing these deformations. To determine the ground movements, an advanced PSI technique and data from ERS-2, Envisat, and Sentinel-1 sensors were used. Application of SAR technology for the first time in this area, provided new knowledge about the process of deformation in short time intervals over the entire area of the city. The results verify the hypothesis on the linearity of displacements obtained from historical geodetic observations. The obtained results show that the displacements, which continue to occur in the area of Wrocław have a cyclic character with 4–5 year long period of subsidence and 2–3 year long periods of stabilization or uplift. The displacement trends indicate that the area of the city gradually subsides in relation to the reference area located on the Fore-Sudetic Block.

scholarly journals Analytical report of the 2016 dengue outbreak in Córdoba city, Argentina

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilo Rotela ◽  
Laura Lopez ◽  
María Frías Céspedes ◽  
Gabriela Barbas ◽  
Andrés Lighezzolo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Dengue Outbreak ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Dengue Control ◽  
The City

After elimination of the Aedes aegypti vector in South America in the 1960s, dengue outbreaks started to reoccur during the 1990s; strongly in Argentina since 1998. In 2016, Córdoba City had the largest dengue outbreak in its history. In this article we report this outbreak including spatio-temporal analysis of cases and vectors in the city. A total of 653 dengue cases were recorded by the laboratory-based dengue surveillance system and georeferenced by their residential addresses. Case maps were generated from the epidemiological week 1 (beginning of January) to week 19 (mid-May). Dengue outbreak temporal evolution was analysed globally and three specific, high-incidence zones were detected using Knox analysis to characterising its spatio-temporal attributes. Field and remotely sensed data were collected and analysed in real time and a vector presence map based on the MaxEnt approach was generated to define hotspots, towards which the pesticide- based strategy was then targeted. The recorded pattern of cases evolution within the community suggests that dengue control measures should be improved.

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