scholarly journals On the Risk Assessment of Terrorist Attacks Coupled with Multi-Source Factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xun Zhang ◽  
Min Jin ◽  
Jingying Fu ◽  
Mengmeng Hao ◽  
Chongchong Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Recommendation Algorithm ◽  
Spatial Risk ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
F Measure

Terrorism has wreaked havoc on today’s society and people. The discovery of the regularity of terrorist attacks is of great significance to the global counterterrorism strategy. In this study, we improve the traditional location recommendation algorithm coupled with multi-source factors and spatial characteristics. We used the data of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia from 1970 to 2016, and comprehensively considered 17 influencing factors, including socioeconomic and natural resource factors. The improved recommendation algorithm is used to build a spatial risk assessment model of terrorist attacks, and the effectiveness is tested. The model trained in this study is tested with precision, recall, and F-Measure. The results show that, when the threshold is 0.4, the precision is as high as 88%, and the F-Measure is the highest. We assess the spatial risk of the terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia through experiments. It can be seen that the southernmost part of the Indochina peninsula and the Philippines are high-risk areas and that the medium-risk and high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the coastal areas. Therefore, future anti-terrorism measures should pay more attention to these areas.

scholarly journals Spatial Distribution Assessment of Terrorist Attack Types Based on I-MLKNN Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 547
Author(s):  
Ruifang Zhao ◽  
Xiaolan Xie ◽  
Xun Zhang ◽  
Min Jin ◽  
Mengmeng Hao
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
International Community ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Different Types

Terrorist attacks are harmful to lives and property and seriously affect the stability of the international community and economic development. Exploring the regularity of terrorist attacks and building a model for assessing the risk of terrorist attacks (a kind of public safety risk, and it means the possibility of a terrorist attack) are of great significance to the security and stability of the international community and to global anti-terrorism. We propose a fusion of Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and a Multi-label k-Nearest Neighbor (I-MLKNN)-based assessment model for terrorist attacks, which is in a grid-scale and considers 17 factors of socio-economic and natural environments, and applied the I-MLKNN assessment model to assess the risk of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia. The results show the I-MLKNN multi-label classification algorithm is proven to be an ideal tool for the assessment of the spatial distribution of terrorist attacks, and it can assess the risk of different types of terrorist attacks, thus revealing the law of distribution of different types of terrorist attacks. The terrorist attack risk assessment results indicate that Armed Attacks, Bombing/Explosions and Facility/Infrastructure Attacks in Southeast Asia are high-risk terrorist attack events, and the southernmost part of Thailand and the Philippines are high-risk terrorist attack areas for terrorism. We do not only provide a reference for incorporating spatial features in multi-label classification algorithms, but also provide a theoretical basis for decision-makers involved in terrorist attacks, which is meaningful to the implementation of the international counter-terrorism strategy.

scholarly journals An Alternative Risk Assessment Model of Urban Waterlogging: A Case Study of Ningbo City

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 826
Author(s):  
Meiling Zhou ◽  
Xiuli Feng ◽  
Kaikai Liu ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Lijian Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
The North ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The City

Influenced by climate change, extreme weather events occur frequently, and bring huge impacts to urban areas, including urban waterlogging. Conducting risk assessments of urban waterlogging is a critical step to diagnose problems, improve infrastructure and achieve sustainable development facing extreme weathers. This study takes Ningbo, a typical coastal city in the Yangtze River Delta, as an example to conduct a risk assessment of urban waterlogging with high-resolution remote sensing images and high-precision digital elevation models to further analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlogging risk. Results indicate that waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is mainly low risk, accounting for 36.9%. The higher-risk and medium-risk areas have the same proportions, accounting for 18.7%. They are followed by the lower-risk and high-risk areas, accounting for 15.5% and 9.6%, respectively. In terms of space, waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is high in the south and low in the north. The high-risk area is mainly located to the west of Jiangdong district and the middle of Haishu district. The low-risk area is mainly distributed in the north of Jiangbei district. These results are consistent with the historical situation of waterlogging in Ningbo, which prove the effectiveness of the risk assessment model and provide an important reference for the government to prevent and mitigate waterlogging. The optimized risk assessment model is also of importance for waterlogging risk assessments in coastal cities. Based on this model, the waterlogging risk of coastal cities can be quickly assessed, combining with local characteristics, which will help improve the city’s capability of responding to waterlogging disasters and reduce socio-economic loss.

A Multi-Level Relational Risk Assessment Model for Secure E-Government Projects

2012 ◽  
pp. 390-418
Author(s):  
Dionysis Kefallinos ◽  
Maria A. Lambrou ◽  
Efstathios D. Sykas
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Technical Risk ◽  
Government Project ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Relational Risk ◽  
Secure Implementation

In this chapter, the authors propose a model for a risk assessment tool directed towards and tailored specifically for e-government projects. The authors’ goal is to cover the particular threats pertinent to the e-government project context and provide an interface between the broader philosophy of IT governance frameworks and the technical risk assessment methodologies, thus aiding in the successful and secure implementation and operation of e-government infrastructures. The model incorporates a wide range of applicable risk areas, grouped into eleven levels, as well as seven accompanying dimensions, assembled into a checklist-like matrix, along with an application algorithm and associated indices, which an evaluator can use to calculate risk for one or for multiple interacting projects.

scholarly journals Ecological risk assessment of geohazards in Natural World Heritage Sites: an empirical analysis of Bogda, Tianshan

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 327-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qin Liu ◽  
Zhaoping Yang ◽  
Hui Shi ◽  
Zhi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Ecological Risk ◽  
Ecological Risk Assessment ◽  
World Heritage ◽  
Natural World ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
World Heritage Site ◽  
Heritage Site ◽  
Risk Areas

Abstract Ecological risk assessment plays an important role in avoiding disasters and reducing losses. Natural world heritage site is the most precious natural assets on earth, yet few studies have assessed ecological risks from the perspective of world heritage conservation and management. A methodology for considering ecological threats and vulnerabilities and focusing on heritage value was introduced and discussed for the Bogda component of the Xinjiang Tianshan Natural World Heritage Site. Three important results are presented. (1) Criteria layers and ecological risk showed obvious spatial heterogeneity. Extremely high-risk and high-risk areas, accounting for 13.60% and 32.56%, respectively, were mainly gathered at Tianchi Lake and Bogda Glacier, whereas the extremely low-risk and low-risk areas, covering 1.33% and 17.51% of the site,were mainly distributed to the north and scattered around in the southwest montane region. (2) The level of risk was positively correlated with the type of risk, and as the level of risk increases, the types of risk increase. Only two risk types were observed in the extremely low-risk areas, whereas six risk types were observed in the high-risk areas and eight risk types were observed in the extremely high-risk areas. (3) From the perspective of risk probability and ecological damage, four risk management categories were proposed, and correlative strategies were proposed to reduce the possibility of ecological risk and to sustain or enhance heritage value.

scholarly journals Two cases of imported respiratory diphtheria in Edinburgh, Scotland, October 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Li ◽  
Daniella Ross ◽  
Katherine Hill ◽  
Sarah Clifford ◽  
Louise Wellington ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Corynebacterium Diphtheriae ◽  
High Index ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Emerging Infections ◽  
Diphtheria Antitoxin ◽  
History Of ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
High Index Of Suspicion

Abstract We report two cases of respiratory toxigenic Corynebacterium diphtheriae infection in fully vaccinated UK born adults following travel to Tunisia in October 2019. Both patients were successfully treated with antibiotics and neither received diphtheria antitoxin. Contact tracing was performed following a risk assessment but no additional cases were identified. This report highlights the importance of maintaining a high index of suspicion for re-emerging infections in patients with a history of travel to high-risk areas outside Europe.

A Validated Risk Model for Prediction of Early Readmission in Patients with Hepatic Encephalopathy

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 0-10
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Kruger ◽  
Fasika Aberra ◽  
Sylvester M. Black ◽  
Alice Hinton ◽  
James Hanje ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hepatic Encephalopathy ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Early Readmission ◽  
The Impact

Introduction and aim. Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a common complication in cirrhotics and is associated with an increased healthcare burden. Our aim was to study independent predictors of 30-day readmission and develop a readmission risk model in patients with HE. Secondary aims included studying readmission rates, cost, and the impact of readmission on mortality. Material and methods. We utilized the 2013 Nationwide Readmission Database (NRD) for hospitalized patients with HE. A risk assessment model based on index hospitalization variables for predicting 30-day readmission was developed using multivariate logistic regression and validated with the 2014 NRD. Patients were stratified into Low Risk and High Risk groups. Cox regression models were fit to identify predictors of calendar-year mortality. Results. Of 24,473 cirrhosis patients hospitalized with HE, 32.4% were readmitted within 30-days. Predictors of readmission included presence of ascites (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.06-1.33), receiving paracentesis (OR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.26-1.62) and acute kidney injury (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.00-1.22). Our validated model stratified patients into Low Risk and High Risk of 30-day readmissions (29% and 40%, respectively). The cost of the first readmission was higher than index admission in the 30-day readmission cohort ($14,198 vs. $10,386; p-value < 0.001). Thirty-day readmission was the strongest predictor of calendar-year mortality (HR: 4.03; 95% CI: 3.49-4.65). Conclusions. Nearly one-third of patients with HE were readmitted within 30-days, and early readmission adversely impacted healthcare utilization and calendar-year mortality. With our proposed simple risk assessment model, patients at high risk for early readmissions can be identified to potentially avert poor outcomes.

External validation of the IMPROVE Bleeding Risk Assessment Model in medical patients

2016 ◽  
Vol 116 (09) ◽  
pp. 530-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Rosenberg ◽  
Anne Press ◽  
Joanna Fishbein ◽  
Martin Lesser ◽  
Lauren McCullagh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
High Risk Patient ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Validation Sample ◽  
Medical Patients ◽  
Medically Ill ◽  
Major Bleed ◽  
Hospitalised Patients

SummaryThe IMPROVE Bleed Risk Assessment Model (RAM) remains the only bleed RAM in hospitalised medical patients using 11 clinical and laboratory factors. The aim of our study was to externally validate the IMPROVE Bleed RAM. A retrospective chart review was conducted between October 1, 2012 and July 31, 2014. We applied the point scoring system to compute risk scores for each patient in the validation sample. We then dichotomised the patients into those with a score <7 (low risk) vs ≥ 7 (high risk), as outlined in the original study, and compared the rates of any bleed, non-major bleed, and major bleed. Among the 12,082 subjects, there was an overall 2.6 % rate of any bleed within 14 days of admission. There was a 2.12 % rate of any bleed in those patients with a score of < 7 and a 4.68 % rate in those with a score ≥ 7 [Odds Ratio (OR) 2.3 (95 % CI=1.8–2.9), p<0.0001]. MB rates were 1.5 % in the patients with a score of < 7 and 3.2 % in the patients with a score of ≥ 7, [OR 2.2 (95 % CI=1.6–2.9), p<0.0001]. The ROC curve was 0.63 for the validation sample. This study represents the largest externally validated Bleed RAM in a hospitalised medically ill patient population. A cut-off point score of 7 or above was able to identify a high-risk patient group for MB and any bleed. The IMPROVE Bleed RAM has the potential to allow for more tailored approaches to thromboprophylaxis in medically ill hospitalised patients.Supplementary Material to this article is available online at www.thrombosis-online.com.

scholarly journals The epidemiological characteristics of dengue in high-risk areas of China, 2013–2016

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0009970
Author(s):  
Shaowei Sang ◽  
Qiyong Liu ◽  
Xiaofang Guo ◽  
De Wu ◽  
Changwen Ke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Guangdong Province ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Envelope Gene ◽  
Network Analyses ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Introduction Dengue has become a more serious human health concern in China, with increased incidence and expanded outbreak regions. The knowledge of the cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological characteristics and the evolutionary dynamics of dengue in high-risk areas of China is limited. Methods Records of dengue cases from 2013 to 2016 were obtained from the China Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Full envelope gene sequences of dengue viruses detected from the high-risk areas of China were collected. Maximum Likelihood tree and haplotype network analyses were conducted to explore the phylogenetic relationship of viruses from high-risk areas of China. Results A total of 56,520 cases was reported in China from 2013 to 2016. During this time, Yunnan, Guangdong and Fujian provinces were the high-risk areas. Imported cases occurred almost year-round, and were mainly introduced from Southeast Asia. The first indigenous case usually occurred in June to August, and the last one occurred before December in Yunnan and Fujian provinces but in December in Guangdong Province. Seven genotypes of DENV 1–3 were detected in the high-risk areas, with DENV 1-I the main genotype and DENV 2-Cosmopolitan the secondary one. The Maximum Likelihood trees show that almost all the indigenous viruses separated into different clusters. DENV 1-I viruses were found to be clustered in Guangdong Province, but not in Fujian and Yunnan, from 2013 to 2015. The ancestors of the Guangdong viruses in the cluster in 2013 and 2014 were most closely related to strains from Thailand or Singapore, and the Guangdong virus in 2015 was most closely related to the Guangdong virus of 2014. Based on closest phylogenetic relationships, viruses from Myanmar possibly initiated further indigenous cases in Yunnan, those from Indonesia in Fujian, while viruses from Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia were predominant in Guangdong Province. Conclusions Dengue is still an imported disease in China, although some genotypes continued to circulate in successive years. Viral phylogenies based on the envelope gene suggested periodic introductions of dengue strains into China, primarily from Southeast Asia, with occasional sustained, multi-year transmission in some regions of China.

Research into behavioral traits of the susceptibility to the risk of significant financial misstatements

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 262-275
Author(s):  
S.V. Arzhenovskii ◽  
T.G. Sinyavskaya ◽  
A.V. Bakhteev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Expert Survey ◽  
Personal Traits ◽  
Behavioral Traits ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The article identifies behavioral signs of the susceptibility to the risk of material misstatements through the expert survey of professional auditors. Objectives. We do empirical research into the impact five behavioral traits have, which we discovered through the two parameter risk assessment model, i.e. tolerance to violation of laws, money pathology, susceptibility to high risk, aspiration of impunity and legislative illiteracy in finance. Method.s We performed the expert survey of professional auditors to discover what determines the susceptibility to fraud among those charged with financial reporting. The expert group was made on the basis of an unbiased approach and documentation. We applied the Rasch model to rank personal traits. The collected data were processed with methods of descriptive statistics and multivariate statistical analysis. Results. Carrying out the statistical analysis of experts’ opinions, we found that their significantly correlated. Personal traits were sorted by their impact on risk assessment. Money pathology, susceptibility to high risk, aspiration of impunity and legislative illiteracy in finance were acknowledged as the most influential factors in terms of the susceptibility to misstatements of financial reporting. Conclusions and Relevance. We empirically proved the importance of factors influencing the propensity to risk of misstating financial reports. We used our own theoretical concept. The findings can be useful to auditing forms to detect the customers’ propensity to the risk of manipulating financial reporting.

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