scholarly journals Targeting Malaria Hotspots to Reduce Transmission Incidence in Senegal

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Kankoé Sallah ◽  
Roch Giorgi ◽  
El-Hadj Ba ◽  
Martine Piarroux ◽  
Renaud Piarroux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
Scaling Up ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Transmission Season ◽  
Additional Control ◽  
The Impact

In central Senegal, malaria incidence declined in response to scaling-up of control measures from 2000 to 2010 and has since remained stable, making elimination unlikely in the short term. Additional control measures are needed to reduce transmission. We simulated chemoprophylaxis interventions targeting malaria hotspots using a metapopulation mathematical model, based on a differential-equation framework and incorporating human mobility. The model was fitted to weekly malaria incidence from 45 villages. Three approaches for selecting intervention targets were compared: (a) villages with malaria cases during the low transmission season of the previous year; (b) villages with highest incidence during the high transmission season of the previous year; (c) villages with highest connectivity with adjacent populations. Our results showed that intervention strategies targeting hotspots would be effective in reducing malaria incidence in both targeted and untargeted areas. Regardless of the intervention strategy used, pre-elimination (1–5 cases per 1000 per year) would not be reached without simultaneously increasing vector control by more than 10%. A cornerstone of malaria control and elimination is the effective targeting of strategic locations. Mathematical tools help to identify those locations and estimate the impact in silico.

scholarly journals Targeting hotspots to reduce transmission of malaria in Senegal: modeling of the effects of human mobility

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kankoé Sallah ◽  
Roch Giorgi ◽  
El Hadj Ba ◽  
Martine Piarroux ◽  
Renaud Piarroux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Scaling Up ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Season ◽  
Targeted Interventions ◽  
Additional Control ◽  
Mathematical Simulations

AbstractBackgroundIn central Senegal malaria incidences have declined in recent years in response to scaling-up of control measures, but now remains stable, making elimination improbable. Additional control measures are needed to reduce transmission.MethodsBy using a meta-population mathematical model, we evaluated chemotherapy interventions targeting stable malaria hotspots, using a differential equation framework and incorporating human mobility, and fitted to weekly malaria incidences from 45 villages, over 5 years. Three simulated approaches for selecting intervention targets were compared: a) villages with at least one malaria case during the low transmission season of the previous year; b) villages ranked highest in terms of incidence during the high transmission season of the previous year; c) villages ranked based on the degree of connectivity with adjacent populations.ResultsOur mathematical modeling, taking into account human mobility, showed that the intervention strategies targeting hotspots should be effective in reducing malaria incidence in both treated and untreated areas.ConclusionsMathematical simulations showed that targeted interventions allow increasing malaria elimination potential.

scholarly journals Targeting Malaria Hotspots to Reduce Transmission Incidence in Senegal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kankoe Sallah ◽  
Roch Giorgi ◽  
El-Hadj Ba ◽  
Martine Piarroux ◽  
Renaud Piarroux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Scaling Up ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Season ◽  
Targeted Interventions ◽  
Additional Control ◽  
Stage 1

In central Senegal malaria incidences have declined from 2000 to 2010 in response to scaling-up of control measures and then remained stable, making elimination improbable. Additional control measures are needed to reduce transmission. We simulated chemoprophylaxis interventions targeting malaria hotspots, using a meta-population mathematical model based on differential equation framework and incorporating human mobility. The model was fitted to weekly malaria incidences from 45 villages. Three approaches for selecting intervention targets were compared: a) villages with malaria cases during the low transmission season of the previous year; b) villages with highest incidences during the high transmission season of the previous year; c) villages with highest connectivity with adjacent populations. Our modeling, considering human mobility, showed that the intervention strategies targeting hotspots would be effective in reducing malaria incidence in both targeted and untargeted areas. But whatever the intervention, pre-elimination stage (1-5 cases per 1,000 per year) would not be reached without simultaneously increasing vector control by more than 10%. Targeted interventions allow increasing overall malaria control and elimination potential.

scholarly journals Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bimandra A. Djaafara ◽  
Charles Whittaker ◽  
Oliver J. Watson ◽  
Robert Verity ◽  
Nicholas F. Brazeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Additional Insight ◽  
Short Term ◽  
If Current ◽  
Vaccine Impact ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Background As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

scholarly journals The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz U.G. Kraemer ◽  
Chia-Hung Yang ◽  
Bernardo Gutierrez ◽  
Chieh-Hsi Wu ◽  
Brennan Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Travel History ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
State Interventions ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Analysis of Effectiveness of Quarantine Measures in Controlling COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garima Kaushik ◽  
Shaney Mantri ◽  
Shrishti Kaushik ◽  
Dhananjay Kalbande ◽  
B. N. Chaudhari
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractCOVID-19 has created an interesting discourse among the people of the world particularly regarding preventive measures of infectious diseases. In this paper, the authors forecast the spread of the Coronavirus outbreak and study how the reduction of transmission rates influences its decline. The paper makes use of the SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) Model which is a deterministic model used in the field of epidemiology-based on differential equations derived from sections of the population. The Basic Reproduction Number (Ro) represents the criticality of the epidemic in numeric terms. Forecasting an epidemic provides insights about the geographic spreading of the disease and the case incidences required to better inform intervention strategists about situations that may occur during the outbreak. Through this research paper, the authors wish to provide an insight into the impact of control measures on the pandemic. By drawing a comparison of three countries and their quarantine measures, observations on the decline of the outbreak are made. Authors intend to guide the intervention strategies of under-resourced countries like India and aid in the overall containment of the outbreak.

scholarly journals Predicting Dynamic Patterns of Short-Term Movement

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S26-S34
Author(s):  
Sveta Milusheva
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
Population Movement ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Important Health ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Short-term human mobility has important health consequences, but measuring short-term movement using survey data is difficult and costly, and use of mobile phone data to study short-term movement is only possible in locations that can access the data. Combining several accessible data sources, Senegal is used as a case study to predict short-term movement within the country. The focus is on two main drivers of movement—economic and social—which explain almost 70 percent of the variation in short-term movement. Comparing real and predicted short-term movement to measure the impact of population movement on the spread of malaria in Senegal, the predictions generated by the model provide estimates for the effect that are not significantly different from the estimates using the real data. Given that the data used in this paper are often accessible in other country settings, this paper demonstrates how predictive modeling can be used by policy makers to estimate short-term mobility.

Grey relational evaluation of impact and control of malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tawiah Kwatekwei Quartey-Papafio ◽  
Sifeng Liu ◽  
Sara Javed
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent States ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
And Control ◽  
Grey Relational ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The rise in malaria deaths discloses a decline of global malaria eradication that shows that control measures and fund distribution have missed its right of way. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to study and evaluate the impact and control of malaria on the independent states of the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region over the time period of 2010–2017 using Deng’s Grey incidence analysis, absolute degree GIA and second synthetic degree GIA model. Design/methodology/approach The purposive data sampling is a secondary data from World Developmental Indicators indicating the incidence of new malaria cases (per 1,000 population at risk) for 45 independent states in SSA. GIA models were applied on array sequences into a single relational grade for ranking to be obtained and analyzed to evaluate trend over a predicted period. Findings Grey relational analysis classifies West Africa as the highly infectious region of malaria incidence having Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Benin, Liberia and Gambia suffering severely. Also, results indicate Southern Africa to be the least of all affected in the African belt that includes Eswatini, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa and Mozambique. But, predictions revealed that the infection rate is expected to fall in West Africa, whereas the least vulnerable countries will experience a rise in malaria incidence through to the next ten years. Therefore, this study draws the attention of all stakeholders and interest groups to adopt effective policies to fight malaria. Originality/value The study is a pioneer to unravel the most vulnerable countries in the SSA region as far as the incidence of new malaria cases is a concern through the use of second synthetic GIA model. The outcome of the study is substantial to direct research funds to control and eliminate malaria.

scholarly journals Impact of Host Heterogeneity on the Efficacy of Interventions to ReduceStaphylococcus aureusCarriage

2015 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiuzhi Chang ◽  
Marc Lipsitch ◽  
William P. Hanage
Keyword(s):  
Bacterial Infections ◽  
Homogeneous Model ◽  
Healthcare Setting ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Heterogeneous Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Carriage Prevalence ◽  
Host Heterogeneity

BACKGROUNDStaphylococcus aureusis a common cause of bacterial infections worldwide. It is most commonly carried in and transmitted from the anterior nares. Hosts are known to vary in their proclivity forS. aureusnasal carriage and may be divided into persistent carriers, intermittent carriers, and noncarriers, depending on duration of carriage. Mathematical models ofS. aureusto predict outcomes of interventions have, however, typically assumed that all individuals are equally susceptible to colonization.OBJECTIVETo characterize biases created by assuming a homogeneous host population in estimating efficacy of control interventions.DESIGNMathematical model.METHODSWe developed a model ofS. aureuscarriage in the healthcare setting under the homogeneous assumption as well as a heterogeneous model to account for the 3 types ofS. aureuscarriers. In both models, we calculated the equilibrium carriage prevalence to predict the impact of control measures (reducing contact and decolonization).RESULTSThe homogeneous model almost always underestimatesS. aureustransmissibility and overestimates the impact of intervention strategies in lowering carriage prevalence compared to the heterogeneous model. This finding is generally consistent regardless of changes in model setting that vary the proportions of various carriers in the population and the duration of carriage for these carrier types.CONCLUSIONSNot accounting for host heterogeneity leads to systematic and substantial biases in predictions of the effects of intervention strategies. Further understanding of the clinical impacts of heterogeneity through modeling can help to target control measures and allocate resources more efficiently.Infect. Control Hosp. Epidemiol.2016;37(2):197–204

scholarly journals Impact of different control policies for COVID-19 outbreak on the air transportation industry: A comparison between China, the U.S. and Singapore

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0248361
Author(s):  
Fanyu Meng ◽  
Wenwu Gong ◽  
Jun Liang ◽  
Xian Li ◽  
Yiping Zeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Air Transportation ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Air Cargo ◽  
Transportation Industry ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Freight Traffic ◽  
The U.S

Many countries have been implementing various control measures with different strictness levels to prevent the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from spreading. With the great reduction in human mobility and daily activities, considerable impacts have been imposed on the global air transportation industry. This study applies a hybrid SARIMA-based intervention model to measure the differences in the impacts of different control measures implemented in China, the U.S. and Singapore on air passenger and air freight traffic. To explore the effect of time span for the measures to be in force, two scenarios are invented, namely a long-term intervention and a short-term intervention, and predictions are made till the end of 2020 for all three countries under both scenarios. As a result, predictive patterns of the selected metrics for the three countries are rather different. China is predicted to have the mildest economic impact on the air transportation industry in this year in terms of air passenger revenue and air cargo traffic, provided that the control measures were prompt and effective. The U.S. would suffer from a far-reaching impact on the industry if the same control measures are maintained. More uncertainties are found for Singapore, as it is strongly associated with international travel demands. Suggestions are made for the three countries and the rest of the world on how to seek a balance between the strictness of control measures and the potential long-term industrial losses.

scholarly journals Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana: A population level mathematical modelling approach.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Awine ◽  
Sheetal P Silal
Keyword(s):  
Malaria Control ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Protective Efficacy ◽  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Information Management System ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Bed Nets ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Insecticide Treated Bed Nets ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Assessing the effectiveness of malaria control measures in Ghana will require taking transmission dynamics of the disease into account given the influence of climate variability in the region of interest. The impact of preventative interventions on malaria incidence and the prospects of meeting program timelines in Ghana have been investigated using mathematical models based on regionally diverse climatic zones. Methods An ordinary non-linear differential equation model with its associated rate parameters was developed incorporating the transitions between various disease compartments for three ecological zones in Ghana. Model parameters were estimated using data captured on the District Health Information Management System in Ghana from 2008 to 2017.The impact of insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying on the incidence of malaria were simulated at various levels of coverage and protective effectiveness in each ecological zone. To fit the model, Approximate Bayesian Computational sampling approach was adopted. Results Increasing the coverage levels of both long lasting insecticide treated bed nets or indoor residual spraying activities without a corresponding increase in their proper use or patronage does not impact highly on averting predicted incidence of malaria in Ghana. Improving on the protective efficacy of long lasting insecticide treated bed nets through proper usage could lead to substantial reductions in the predicted incidence of malaria. Similar results were obtained with indoor residual spraying across all zones. Conclusions Projected goals set in the National Strategic plan for malaria control 2014-2020 as well as WHO targets for malaria pre-elimination by 2030 are only likely be achieved if a substantial improvement in treated bed net usage is achieved coupled with targeted deployment of indoor residual spraying with high efficacy.

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