scholarly journals Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Lancang-Mekong Region, South East Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (17) ◽  
pp. 6153
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Wei Song ◽  
Wen Song
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Crop Water Stress Index ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Mekong Region ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
South Central ◽  
High Hazard

Natural disasters worldwide regularly impact on human activities. As a frequently occurring natural disaster, drought has adverse impacts on agricultural production. The Lancang-Mekong River is a transnational river running through China and five Southeast Asian countries and it is a vital water resource for irrigation in the region. Drought in the Lancang-Mekong Region (LMR) has occurred frequently in recent years. Assessing the risk of drought in the region is essential for rational planning of agricultural production and formulation of drought relief measures. In this study, an assessment of drought risk has been achieved by combining the hazard and vulnerability assessments for drought. The assessment of the drought hazard depends mainly on the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The assessment of drought vulnerability takes into account various indicators such as climatic factors (e.g., crop water stress index), soil factors (e.g., available water capacity), and irrigation factors (e.g., irrigation support). The results reveal that: (1) Drought distribution in the LMR is characterized by a spreading of the drought to countries along the middle and lower reaches of the Mekong River. Countries located in the middle and lower reaches of the Mekong River are more prone to drought. Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia are the regions with higher and high-drought risk levels. (2) The spatial distributions for the drought hazard and the drought vulnerability in the LMR exhibit significant differences as evidenced in the mapping results. High-hazard and high-vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in the middle LMR, and the middle to higher hazard areas and the middle to higher vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in the south-central LMR, while the low-hazard areas and the low-vulnerability areas are mainly in the north. (3) The majority of planting areas for sugarcane, rice, and cassava are located in the high-hazard areas. The distributions of drought-prone and high-hazard areas also correspond to the main agricultural areas in the LMR.

scholarly journals Perceiving and managing the 2018 & 2019 droughts in Europe: is there a need for macro-governance in Europe?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veit Blauhut ◽  
Claudia Teutschbein ◽  
Mathias N. Andersen ◽  
Manuela Brunner ◽  
Carmelo Cammalleri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
International Exchange ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Management ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
National Differences

<p>In recent years, the adverse effects of drought have been experienced and perceived more severely and frequently all over Europe. These impacts are a result of the drought hazard and the socio-economic and ecological vulnerability. Due to the heterogeneity of Europe’s hydro-climatology and its cultural, political, social and economic diversity , the socio-economic and ecological impacts vary not only with respect to the extent, duration and severity of the drought, but also with the characteristics of affected societies, economic sectors and ecosystems. </p><p>The lack  of understanding the spatio-temporal differences in the drivers of drought risk hinders the successful mitigation of future impacts, and the design of suitable reactive and proactive drought action plans. Therefore, this study describes the European drought events of 2018 and 2019 beyond the hazard. The hypothesis to be proven is that similar hazard conditions result in different impacts due to national and sub-national differences in drought vulnerability, perception and drought-risk management. Based on research in 35 European countries, comparable national datasets on drought management and perception are established. For each of these countries, a uniform questionnaire was distributed to water management-related stakeholders at different administrative levels. A major focus of the questions was the perception and impacts of the recent droughts and current management strategies on a national and sub-national scale. The results of the questionnaires are also compared to country-scale profiles of past drought events for different drought types, i.e. meteorological, soil moisture, hydrological and vegetation drought, which were established based on information derived from the European Drought Observatory indicator system.</p><p>The results highlight a large diversity in the national perception of drought as a natural hazard and its impacts; but also a different spatial extent of 2018/2019 drought events At the same time,  existing drought management strategies are shown to increase national and sub-national resilience. The study, therefore, calls for international exchange and mutual learning to improve national and international drought governance and management.</p>

scholarly journals Drought Risk Assessment by Using Drought Hazard and Vulnerability Indexes

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Dabanli
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hazard Index ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Hazard Vulnerability ◽  
Composite Risk

Abstract. Drought has multiple impacts on socioeconomic sectors and it is expected to increase in the coming years due to non-stationary nature of climate variability and change. Here, we investigated drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk based on hydro-meteorological and actual socio-economic data for provinces of Turkey. Although, drought vulnerability and risk assessment are essential parts of drought phenomenon, so far, lack of proper integrated drought risk assessment in Turkey (and elsewhere) has led to higher socio-economic impacts. Firstly, the Drought Hazard Index (DHI) is derived based on the probability occurrences of drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to facilitate the understanding of drought phenomenon. Secondly, the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is calculated by utilizing four socio-economic indicators to quantify drought impact on society. Finally, the Drought Risk Index (DRI) is obtained by multiplying DHI and DVI for provinces of Turkey to highlight the relative importance of hazard and vulnerability assessment for drought risk management. A set of drought hazard, vulnerability, and composite risk maps were then developed. The outputs of analysis reveal that among 81 administrative provinces in Turkey, 73 provinces are exposed to the low drought risk (0 

scholarly journals Probabilistic modelling of the dependence between rainfed crops and drought hazard

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Patrícia Páscoa ◽  
Carlos A. L. Pires
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Crop Loss ◽  
Archimedean Copulas ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
Joint Probability Distributions

Abstract. Extreme weather events, such as droughts, have been increasingly affecting the agricultural sector causing several socio-economic consequences. The growing economy requires improved assessments of drought-related impacts in agriculture, particularly under a climate that is getting drier and warmer. This work proposes a probabilistic model which intends to contribute to the agricultural drought risk management in rainfed cropping systems. Our methodology is based on a bivariate copula-approach using Elliptical and Archimedean copulas, which application is quite recent in agrometeorological studies. In this work we use copulas to model joint probability distributions describing the amount of dependence between drought conditions and crop anomalies. Afterwards, we use the established copula models to simulate pairs of yield anomalies and drought hazard, preserving their dependence structure, to further estimate the probability of crop-loss. In the first step, we analyse the probability of crop-loss without distinguishing the class of drought, and in a second step we compare the probability of crop-loss under drought and non-drought conditions. The results indicate that, in general, Archimedean copulas provide the best statistical fits of the joint probability distributions, suggesting a dependence among extreme values of rainfed cereal yield anomalies and drought indicators. Moreover, the estimated conditional probabilities suggest that the likelihood of crop-loss under dry conditions is higher than under non-drought conditions. From an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to the decision-making process in agricultural practices.

scholarly journals Study on the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Wang ◽  
Jingyi Jiang ◽  
Qing Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Curve ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Drought Hazard

Abstract. Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed great threaten to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. Results of the drought hazard intensity index showed that the risk of agricultural drought displayed a negative correlation with the precipitation and kept rising from 1966 to 2011. Risk assessments of yield loss ratio shows that physical vulnerability curve has magnify and reduce function to drought hazard. So improving the capacity of maize to resist drought can help them adapt to drought hazard. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China had great sensitivity to climate change and high probability for severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understanding the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to the climate change.

scholarly journals The drought risk of maize in the farming–pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 2697-2711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Wang ◽  
Jingyi Jiang ◽  
Qing Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Curve ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Spring Maize

Abstract. Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed a great threat to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming–pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. The probability distribution of drought hazard intensity index decreased from south-west to north-east and increased from south-east to north-west along the rainfall isoline. The physical vulnerability curve had a reduction effect in three parts of the farming–pastoral ecotone in Northern China, which helped to reduce drought hazard vulnerability on spring maize. The risk of yield loss ratio calculated based on physical vulnerability curve was lower compared with the drought hazard intensity index, which suggested that the capacity of spring maize to resist and adapt to drought is increasing. In conclusion, the farming–pastoral ecotone in Northern China is greatly sensitive to climate change and has a high probability of severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understand the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to climate change.

scholarly journals Studying Onset and Evolution of Agricultural Drought in Mekong River Basin through Hydrologic Modeling

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3622
Author(s):  
Bakkiyalakshmi Palanisamy ◽  
Balaji Narasimhan ◽  
Sabu Paul ◽  
Raghavan Srinivasan ◽  
Winai Wangpimool ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mekong River Basin ◽  
Percent Normal

Departures in precipitation from the normal are the cause of the onset of agricultural drought. In this study, we aim to identify extreme precipitation deficits using an index called Percent Normal (PN). We applied the proposed PN index to the agriculturally productive Mekong River Basin (MRB) to evaluate the propagation of precipitation deficits into agricultural drought based on the change in slope and mean of the precipitation, soil moisture and evapotranspiration anomalies. The results of the study showed the proposed PN index identified historical droughts in the years 1992, 1997–1998 and 2000–2006 in MRB; of these, 1992 was shown to be the longest drought, which lasted from the 43rd week (October) of 1991 to the 49th week (December) of 1994. The short-term but extreme drought was identified to occur in 2005 with below-normal precipitation that lasted for more than a year. An immediate effect of precipitation deficit was observed in evapotranspiration (ET) and soil water for agricultural (Thailand) and forested regions (Parts of Cambodia) of the basin with <5 weeks lag. We conclude that the drought indices adopted in this study are suitable to identify the small and long-term drought events, which will facilitate the development of a drought-resilient agricultural production system.

scholarly journals Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment in Southwest China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaoqi Zeng ◽  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Zhaolei Li ◽  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Yahui Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Southwest China ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

Drought disasters jeopardize agricultural production and are expected to become more serious in the context of global climate change. However, in China, little attention has been paid to evaluating agricultural drought risk in humid areas (such as in Southwest China), which have also been affected by severe drought in recent years. In this work, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which was computed from high-quality monthly precipitation and temperature data from 92 rain-gauge stations across Southwest China, to study the drought characteristics (e.g., intensity, duration, and frequency) and their decadal variations from 1960 to 2017. Furthermore, we applied a widely accepted conceptual model that emphasizes the combined role of drought hazard (calculated by the intensity and frequency of drought) and agricultural drought vulnerability (integrated with high-resolution soil properties, climate, topography, irrigation, and gross domestic product) to conduct a spatial assessment of agricultural drought risk at a 1-km grid scale. The results revealed that drought has become more serious and frequent in Southwest China, especially since the 2000s. About 27.4% of the agricultural area has been exposed to an extremely high risk of drought, 33.5% to a high risk, 22.5% to a moderate risk, and 16.6% to a low risk. The extreme agricultural risk areas were located mainly in northeastern and southeastern Chongqing, southwestern Sichuan, northeastern and eastern Guizhou, and central and eastern Yunnan. Our findings highlighted that more attention should be paid to the agricultural drought risk in humid regions of China. Furthermore, this work could set the stage for policy makers and practitioners to take measures to reduce the agricultural drought risk in Southwest China.

scholarly journals A Spatially Transferable Drought Hazard and Drought Risk Modeling Approach Based on Remote Sensing Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maximilian Schwarz ◽  
Tobias Landmann ◽  
Natalie Cornish ◽  
Karl-Friedrich Wetzel ◽  
Stefan Siebert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Model ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Regional Drought ◽  
Hazard Vulnerability

Drought adversely affects vegetation conditions and agricultural production and consequently the food security and livelihood situation of the often most vulnerable communities. In spite of recent advances in modeling drought risk and impact, coherent and explicit information on drought hazard, vulnerability and risk is still lacking over wider areas. In this study, a spatially explicit drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk modeling framework was investigated for agricultural land, grassland and shrubland areas. The developed drought hazard model operates on a higher spatial resolution than most available drought models while also being scalable to other regions. Initially, a logistic regression model was developed to predict drought hazard for rangelands and croplands in the USA. The drought hazard model was cross-verified for the USA using the United States Drought Monitor (USDM). The comparison of the model with the USDM showed a good spatiotemporal agreement, using visual interpretation. Subsequently, the explicit and accurate USA model was transferred and calibrated for South Africa and Zimbabwe, where drought vulnerability and drought risk were assessed in combination with drought hazard. The drought hazard model used time series crop yields data from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) and biophysical predictors from satellite remote sensing (SPI, NDVI, NDII, LST, albedo). A McFadden’s Pseudo R² value of 0.17 for the South African model indicated a good model fit. The plausibility of the drought hazard model results in southern Africa was evaluated by using regional climate patterns, published drought reports and a visual comparison to a global drought risk model and food security classification data. Drought risk and vulnerability were assessed for southern Africa and could also be spatially explicit mapped showing, for example, lower drought vulnerability and risk over irrigated areas. The innovative aspect of the presented drought hazard model is that it can be applied to other countries at a global scale, since it only uses globally available data sets and therefore can be easily modified to account for country-specific characteristics. At the same time, it can capture regional drought conditions through a higher resolution than other existing global drought hazard models. This model addressed the gap between global drought models, that cannot spatially and temporally explicitly capture regional drought effects, and sub-regional drought models that may be spatially explicit but not spatially transferable. Since we used globally available and spatially consistent data sets (both as predictors and response variables), the approach of this study can potentially be used globally to enhance existing modelling routines, drought intervention strategies and preparedness measures.

scholarly journals Probabilistic modelling of the dependence between rainfed crops and drought hazard

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2795-2809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Patrícia Páscoa ◽  
Carlos A. L. Pires
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Crop Loss ◽  
Archimedean Copulas ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
Joint Probability Distributions ◽  
Cluster 2

Abstract. Extreme weather events, such as droughts, have been increasingly affecting the agricultural sector, causing several socio-economic consequences. The growing economy requires improved assessments of drought-related impacts in agriculture, particularly under a climate that is getting drier and warmer. This work proposes a probabilistic model that is intended to contribute to the agricultural drought risk management in rainfed cropping systems. Our methodology is based on a bivariate copula approach using elliptical and Archimedean copulas, the application of which is quite recent in agrometeorological studies. In this work we use copulas to model joint probability distributions describing the amount of dependence between drought conditions and crop yield anomalies. Afterwards, we use the established copula models to simulate pairs of yield anomalies and drought hazard, preserving their dependence structure to further estimate the probability of crop loss. In the first step, we analyse the probability of crop loss without distinguishing the class of drought, and in the second step we compare the probability of crop loss under drought and non-drought conditions. The results indicate that, in general, Archimedean copulas provide the best statistical fits of the joint probability distributions, suggesting a dependence among extreme values of rainfed cereal yield anomalies and drought indicators. Moreover, the estimated conditional probabilities suggest that when drought conditions are below moderate thresholds, the risk of crop loss increases between 32.53 % (cluster 1) and 32.6 % (cluster 2) in the case of wheat and between 31.63 % (cluster 2) and 55.55 % (cluster 2) in the case of barley. From an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to the decision-making process in agricultural practices.

scholarly journals Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janna Frischen ◽  
Isabel Meza ◽  
Daniel Rupp ◽  
Katharina Wietler ◽  
Michael Hagenlocher
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Agricultural Systems ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Changing Patterns

The devastating impacts of drought are fast becoming a global concern. Zimbabwe is among the countries more severely affected, where drought impacts have led to water shortages, declining yields, and periods of food insecurity, accompanied by economic downturns. In particular, the country’s agricultural sector, mostly comprised of smallholder rainfed systems, is at great risk of drought. In this study, a multimethod approach is applied, including a remote sensing-based analysis of vegetation health data from 1989–2019 to assess the drought hazard, as well as a spatial analysis combined with expert consultations to determine drought vulnerability and exposure of agricultural systems. The results show that droughts frequently occur with changing patterns across Zimbabwe. Every district has been affected by drought during the past thirty years, with varying levels of severity and frequency. Severe drought episodes have been observed in 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2015–2016, and 2018–2019. Drought vulnerability and exposure vary substantially in the country, with the south-western provinces of Matabeleland North and South showing particularly high levels. Assessments of high-risk areas, combined with an analysis of the drivers of risk, set the path towards tailor-made adaptation strategies that consider drought frequency and severity, exposure, and vulnerability.

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