scholarly journals Ex Post Nash Equilibrium in Linear Bayesian Games for Decision Making in Multi-Environments

Games ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Abbas Edalat ◽  
Samira Ghorban ◽  
Ali Ghoroghi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Trust Game ◽  
Bayesian Games ◽  
Bayesian Game ◽  
Dimensional Simplex ◽  
Type Space ◽  
Bounded Set ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Basic Game

We show that a Bayesian game where the type space of each agent is a bounded set of m-dimensional vectors with non-negative components and the utility of each agent depends linearly on its own type only is equivalent to a simultaneous competition in m basic games which is called a uniform multigame. The type space of each agent can be normalised to be given by the ( m - 1 ) -dimensional simplex. This class of m-dimensional Bayesian games, via their equivalence with uniform multigames, can model decision making in multi-environments in a variety of circumstances, including decision making in multi-markets and decision making when there are both material and social utilities for agents as in the Prisoner’s Dilemma and the Trust Game. We show that, if a uniform multigame in which the action set of each agent consists of one Nash equilibrium inducing action per basic game has a pure ex post Nash equilibrium on the boundary of its type profile space, then it has a pure ex post Nash equilibrium on the whole type profile space. We then develop an algorithm, linear in the number of types of the agents in such a multigame, which tests if a pure ex post Nash equilibrium on the vertices of the type profile space can be extended to a pure ex post Nash equilibrium on the boundary of its type profile space in which case we obtain a pure ex post Nash equilibrium for the multigame.

scholarly journals Ex Post Nash Equilibrium in Games for Decision Making in Multi-environments

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Edalat ◽  
Samira Hossein Ghorban ◽  
Ali Ghoroghi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Finite Number ◽  
Convex Combination ◽  
Solution Concept ◽  
Trust Game ◽  
Type Space ◽  
Pure Type ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Basic Game

We employ the solution concept of ex post Nash equilibrium to predict the interaction of a finite number of agents competing in a finite number of basic games simultaneously. The competition is called a multi-game. For each agent, a specific weight, considered as private information, is allocated to each basic game representing its investment in that game and the utility of each agent for any strategy profile is the weighted sum, i.e., convex combination, of its utilities in the basic games. Multi-games can model decision making in multi-environments in a variety of circumstances, including decision making in multi-markets and decision making when there are both material and social utilities for agents as, we propose, in the Prisoner's Dilemma and the Trust Game. Given a set of pure Nash equilibria, one for each basic game in a multi-game, we construct a pure Bayesian Nash equilibrium for the multi-game. We then focus on the class of so-called uniform multi-games in which each agent is constrained to play in all games the same strategy from an action set consisting of a best response per game. Uniform multi-games are equivalent to multi-dimensional Bayesian games where the type of each agent is a finite dimensional vector with non-negative components. A notion of pure type-regularity for uniform multi-games is developed and it is shown that a multi-game that is pure type-regular on the boundary of its type space has a pure ex post Nash equilibrium which is computed in constant time with respect to the number of the types and is independent of prior probability distributions. We then develop an algorithm, linear in the number of types of the agents, which tests if a multi-game is pure type-regular on the boundary of its type space in which case it returns a pure ex post Nash equilibrium for the multi-game.

The Decision-making and Outcome Evaluation during a Repeated Trust Game

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (8) ◽  
pp. 1028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiwen WANG ◽  
Zhen ZHANG ◽  
Sheng YUAN ◽  
Fengbo GUO ◽  
Shaoying HE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Outcome Evaluation ◽  
Trust Game

scholarly journals Going Beyond Panaceas: The Diversity of Land Observatory Forms in Africa

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Grislain ◽  
Jeremy Bourgoin ◽  
Ward Anseeuw ◽  
Perrine Burnod ◽  
Eva Hershaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Participant Observation ◽  
Video Conferencing ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Information Production ◽  
Dynamic Data ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante

In recent decades, mechanisms for observation and information production have proliferated in an attempt to meet the growing needs of stakeholders to access dynamic data for the purposes of informed decision-making. In the land sector, a growing number of land observatories are producing data and ensuring its transparency. We hypothesize that these structures are being developed in response to the need for information and knowledge, a need that is being driven by the scale and diversity of land issues. Based on the results of a study conducted on land observatories in Africa, this paper presents existing and past land observatories on the continent and proposes to assess their diversity through an analysis of core dimensions identified in the literature. The analytical framework was implemented through i) an analysis of existing literature on land observatories, ii) detailed assessments of land observatories based on semi-open interviews conducted via video conferencing, iii) fieldwork and visits to several observatories, and iv) participant observation through direct engagement and work at land observatories. We emphasize that the analytical framework presented here can be used as a tool by land observatories to undertake ex-post self-evaluations that take the observatory’s trajectory into account, or in the case of proposed new land observatories, to undertake ex-ante analyses and design the pathway towards the intended observatory.

scholarly journals DESIGNING A DATA VISUALISATION AND ANALYSIS TOOL FOR SUPPORTING DECISION-MAKING WITH PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1093-1102
Author(s):  
Flore Vallet ◽  
Mostepha Khouadjia ◽  
Ahmed Amrani ◽  
Juliette Pouzet
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Visual Exploration ◽  
Problem Solution ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Complex Data ◽  
Data Visualisation ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Passenger Flows

AbstractMassive data are surrounding us in our daily lives. Urban mobility generates a very high number of complex data reflecting the mobility of people, vehicles and objects. Transport operators are primary users who strive to discover the meaning of phenomena behind traffic data, aiming at regulation and transport planning. This paper tackles the question "How to design a supportive tool for visual exploration of digital mobility data to help a transport analyst in decision making?” The objective is to support an analyst to conduct an ex post analysis of train circulation and passenger flows, notably in disrupted situations. We propose a problem-solution process combined with data visualisation. It relies on the observation of operational agents, creativity sessions and the development of user scenarios. The process is illustrated for a case study on one of the commuter line of the Paris metropolitan area. Results encompass three different layers and multiple interlinked views to explore spatial patterns, spatio-temporal clusters and passenger flows. We join several transport network indicators whether are measured, forecasted, or estimated. A user scenario is developed to investigate disrupted situations in public transport.

scholarly journals Game-Theoretic Decision Support for Cyber Forensic Investigations

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (16) ◽  
pp. 5300
Author(s):  
Antonia Nisioti ◽  
George Loukas ◽  
Stefan Rass ◽  
Emmanouil Panaousis
Keyword(s):  
Cyber Security ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Bayesian Games ◽  
Bayesian Game ◽  
Cyber Forensics ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
The Cost

The use of anti-forensic techniques is a very common practice that stealthy adversaries may deploy to minimise their traces and make the investigation of an incident harder by evading detection and attribution. In this paper, we study the interaction between a cyber forensic Investigator and a strategic Attacker using a game-theoretic framework. This is based on a Bayesian game of incomplete information played on a multi-host cyber forensics investigation graph of actions traversed by both players. The edges of the graph represent players’ actions across different hosts in a network. In alignment with the concept of Bayesian games, we define two Attacker types to represent their ability of deploying anti-forensic techniques to conceal their activities. In this way, our model allows the Investigator to identify the optimal investigating policy taking into consideration the cost and impact of the available actions, while coping with the uncertainty of the Attacker’s type and strategic decisions. To evaluate our model, we construct a realistic case study based on threat reports and data extracted from the MITRE ATT&CK STIX repository, Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS), and interviews with cyber-security practitioners. We use the case study to compare the performance of the proposed method against two other investigative methods and three different types of Attackers.

scholarly journals A Computational Model of Non-optimal Suspiciousness in the Minnesota Trust Game

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Kazinka ◽  
Iris Vilares ◽  
Angus MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Inequity Aversion ◽  
Trust Game ◽  
Social Decision ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Social Decision Making

This study modeled spite sensitivity (the worry that others are willing to incur a loss to hurt you), which is thought to undergird suspiciousness and persecutory ideation. Two samples performed a parametric, non-iterative trust game known as the Minnesota Trust Game (MTG). The MTG is designed to distinguish suspicious decision-making from otherwise rational mistrust by incentivizing the player to trust in certain situations. Individuals who do not trust even under these circumstances are particularly suspicious of their potential partner’s intentions. In Sample 1, 243 undergraduates who completed the MTG showed less trust as the amount of money they could lose increased. However, for choices where partners had a financial disincentive to betray the player, variation in the willingness to trust the partner was associated with suspicious beliefs. To further examine spite sensitivity, we modified the Fehr-Schmidt (1999) inequity aversion model, which compares unequal outcomes in social decision-making tasks, to include the possibility for spite sensitivity. In this case, an anticipated partner’s dislike of advantageous inequity (i.e., guilt) parameter could take on negative values, with negative guilt indicating spite. We hypothesized that the anticipated guilt parameter would be strongly related to suspicious beliefs. Our modification of the Fehr-Schmidt model improved estimation of MTG behavior. We isolated the estimation of partner’s spite-guilt, which was highly correlated with choices most associated with persecutory ideation. We replicated our findings in a second sample, where the estimated spite-guilt parameter correlated with self-reported suspiciousness. The “Suspiciousness” condition, unique to the MTG, can be modeled to isolate spite sensitivity, suggesting that spite sensitivity is separate from inequity aversion or risk aversion, and may provide a means to quantify persecution. The MTG offers promise for future studies to quantify persecutory beliefs in clinical populations.

scholarly journals HUBUNGAN KONFORMITAS SISWA DENGAN PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN KARIR

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Septi Vatmawati
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Career Decisions ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Career Decision ◽  
Career Decision Making ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Correlational Approach ◽  
Relationship Of

Abstract. Research on Relationship between Student Conformity and Career Decision Making was motivated by the discovery of students who experienced confusion, doubts in determining career choices. The tendency to take career decisions because of joining friends, encouraging parents and teachers who are too hard on one career choice and causing students to make career decisions. This is not in accordance with the potential, talents and interests possessed.This type of research is quantitative research. Ex post fact research method with a correlational approach. The hypothesis in this research are there relationship between student conformity and career decision making. The population used in this study were students of SMK Teuku Umar Semarang class XI 2017/2018 period. Software engineering class was used as a try out class. As for the accounting class and institutional finance as research samples. Sampling used is cluster random sampling technique. This research data is obtained through the scale of student conformity and the scale of career decision making.The results of the correlation analysis between the conformity of students with career decision making is the relationship of conformity of students with career decision making (rxy) of 0.465 strong enough categories. Contribution of conformity of students with career decision making is 21.62% and the remaining 78.38% is determined by other variables. Whereas there was found no significant relationship between students' conformity with career decision making. Because α = 0, 05 and n = 17. Test two parties; dk = n-2 = 17-2 = 15 so ttable 2, 131, it turns out that t count ≤ t table or 2.031 ≤ 2.131 then Ho is accepted which means that there is no significant relationship between the conformity of students and career decision making.Based on the results of this study the suggestions that can be conveyed are finding and helping students to make career decisions effectively and efficiently and maximize the role of BK teachers and related parties in realizing it. Keywords: Career Decision Making, Student Conformity

DEONTOLOGY, THRESHOLDS, AND EFFICIENCY

Legal Theory ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher T. Wonnell
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Moral Judgments ◽  
Rule Following ◽  
Threshold Functions ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Public Decision

This article explores four topics raised by Eyal Zamir and Barak Medina's treatment of constrained deontology. First, it examines whether mathematical threshold functions are the proper way to think about limits on deontology, given the discontinuities of our moral judgments and the desired phenomenology of rule-following. Second, it asks whether constrained deontology is appropriate for public as well as private decision-making, taking issue with the book's conclusion that deontological options are inapplicable to public decision-making, whereas deontological constraints are applicable. Third, it examines the issue of the relationship between deontology and efficiency, asking whether deontological constraints should yield in situations where everyone would expect to benefit from their suspension, either ex ante or ex post. Finally, the article concludes that constrained deontology is susceptible to political abuse because of the many degrees of freedom involved in identifying constrained actions and the point at which those constraints yield to consequentialist benefits.

scholarly journals How should we regulate artificial intelligence?

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2128) ◽  
pp. 20170360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Reed
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Current System ◽  
General System ◽  
Fundamental Rights ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Human Decision

Using artificial intelligence (AI) technology to replace human decision-making will inevitably create new risks whose consequences are unforeseeable. This naturally leads to calls for regulation, but I argue that it is too early to attempt a general system of AI regulation. Instead, we should work incrementally within the existing legal and regulatory schemes which allocate responsibility, and therefore liability, to persons. Where AI clearly creates risks which current law and regulation cannot deal with adequately, then new regulation will be needed. But in most cases, the current system can work effectively if the producers of AI technology can provide sufficient transparency in explaining how AI decisions are made. Transparency ex post can often be achieved through retrospective analysis of the technology's operations, and will be sufficient if the main goal is to compensate victims of incorrect decisions. Ex ante transparency is more challenging, and can limit the use of some AI technologies such as neural networks. It should only be demanded by regulation where the AI presents risks to fundamental rights, or where society needs reassuring that the technology can safely be used. Masterly inactivity in regulation is likely to achieve a better long-term solution than a rush to regulate in ignorance. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The growing ubiquity of algorithms in society: implications, impacts and innovations'.

Why do Restatements Decrease in a Clawback Environment? An Investigation into Financial Reporting Executives' Decision-Making during the Restatement Process

2015 ◽  
Vol 90 (6) ◽  
pp. 2515-2536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan S. Pyzoha
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Executive Compensation ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Archival Studies ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Auditor Quality

ABSTRACT Prior archival studies find that firms that voluntarily adopted clawback policies have experienced a reduction in restatements. I experimentally examine this outcome by investigating the influence of two key factors (i.e., executive compensation structure and auditor quality) on financial reporting executives' (hereafter, “executives”) decision-making regarding a proposed restatement that will lead to a clawback of their incentives. I find that executives (i.e., CFOs, controllers, and treasurers) facing a lower quality auditor are less likely to agree with amending prior financial statements when a higher proportion of their pay is incentive-based. However, this tendency is reduced when executives face a higher quality auditor, indicating that higher quality auditors can act as effective monitors. My results identify an ex post unintended consequence of clawback regulation that could at least partially offset the benefits of the ex ante deterrent effects of clawbacks, and that could contribute to findings of less frequent restatements when clawback policies are in place. I discuss potential implications regarding the role of executives during restatement decisions and auditors' risk assessments in a clawback environment. Data Availability: Data are available from the author upon request.

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