scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Analysis of Active Fires in the Arctic Region during 2001–2019 and a Fire Risk Assessment Model

Fire ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Zhen Zhang ◽  
Leilei Wang ◽  
Naiting Xue ◽  
Zhiheng Du
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment

The increasing frequency of active fires worldwide has caused significant impacts on terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric systems. Polar regions have received little attention due to their sparse populations, but active fires in the Arctic cause carbon losses from peatlands, which affects the global climate system. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on the spatiotemporal variations in active fires in the Arctic and to assess the fire risk. We used MODIS C6 data from 2001 to 2019 and VIIRS V1 data from 2012 to 2019 to analyse the spatiotemporal characteristics of active fires and establish a fire risk assessment model based on logistic regression. The trends in active fire frequency based on MODIS C6 and VIIRS V1 data are consistent. Throughout the Arctic, the fire frequency appears to be fluctuating and overall increasing. Fire occurrence has obvious seasonality, being concentrated in summer (June–August) and highest in July, when lightning is most frequent. The frequency of active fires is related to multiple factors, such as vegetation type, NDVI, elevation, slope, air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and distances from roads and settlements. A risk assessment model was constructed based on logistic regression and found to be accurate. The results are helpful in understanding the risk of fires in the Arctic under climate change and provide a scientific basis for fire prediction and control and for reducing fire-related carbon emissions.

scholarly journals A fire risk assessment model for residential high-rises with a single stairwell

2018 ◽  
Vol 95 ◽  
pp. 160-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
N.D. Hansen ◽  
F.B. Steffensen ◽  
M. Valkvist ◽  
G. Jomaas ◽  
R. Van Coile
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment

scholarly journals Developing a Subway Fire Risk Assessment Model Based on Analysis Theory

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Zhenguo Yan ◽  
Yanping Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Analysis Theory ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment ◽  
And Control

In order to effectively reduce the risk of subway fires and to improve the safety of passengers, a review of the background to subway fires employing literature and comparative analyses, computer simulation, expert consultation, and other research methods has been employed to conduct an in-depth study of subway fire risk assessment and control measures. A subway fire risk assessment model based on analysis theory was established. Firstly, a subway fire risk evaluation index system was developed, and the weight values of each level were determined using the interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP), then the evaluation was derived using the fuzzy evaluation method, and the passenger distribution simulation was introduced to improve the objectivity of the evaluation. The results show that the fire evaluation of this subway system is safe. The results show that a subway fire risk assessment model may provide a scientific basis for establishing prevention and control measures, extinguishing methods, passenger safety evacuation schemes, and carrying out fire safety management activities during subway operations.

scholarly journals Screening the Influence of Biomarkers for Metabolic Syndrome in Occupational Population Based on the Lasso Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiao-Ying Xie ◽  
Ming-Wei Wang ◽  
Zu-Ying Hu ◽  
Cheng-Jian Cao ◽  
Cong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Lasso Regression

Aim: Metabolic syndrome (MS) screening is essential for the early detection of the occupational population. This study aimed to screen out biomarkers related to MS and establish a risk assessment and prediction model for the routine physical examination of an occupational population.Methods: The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression algorithm of machine learning was used to screen biomarkers related to MS. Then, the accuracy of the logistic regression model was further verified based on the Lasso regression algorithm. The areas under the receiving operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the selection accuracy of biomarkers in identifying MS subjects with risk. The screened biomarkers were used to establish a logistic regression model and calculate the odds ratio (OR) of the corresponding biomarkers. A nomogram risk prediction model was established based on the selected biomarkers, and the consistency index (C-index) and calibration curve were derived.Results: A total of 2,844 occupational workers were included, and 10 biomarkers related to MS were screened. The number of non-MS cases was 2,189 and that of MS was 655. The area under the curve (AUC) value for non-Lasso and Lasso logistic regression was 0.652 and 0.907, respectively. The established risk assessment model revealed that the main risk biomarkers were absolute basophil count (OR: 3.38, CI:1.05–6.85), platelet packed volume (OR: 2.63, CI:2.31–3.79), leukocyte count (OR: 2.01, CI:1.79–2.19), red blood cell count (OR: 1.99, CI:1.80–2.71), and alanine aminotransferase level (OR: 1.53, CI:1.12–1.98). Furthermore, favorable results with C-indexes (0.840) and calibration curves closer to ideal curves indicated the accurate predictive ability of this nomogram.Conclusions: The risk assessment model based on the Lasso logistic regression algorithm helped identify MS with high accuracy in physically examining an occupational population.

Fire Risk Assessment Using Neural Network and Logistic Regression

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 885-894 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Jafari Goldarag ◽  
Ali Mohammadzadeh ◽  
A. S. Ardakani
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment

scholarly journals Fire Risk Assessment Models Using Statistical Machine Learning and Optimized Risk Indexing

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4199
Author(s):  
Myoung-Young Choi ◽  
Sunghae Jun
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Statistical Machine Learning ◽  
Fire Insurance ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment

It is very difficult for us to accurately predict occurrence of a fire. But, this is very important to protect human life and property. So, we study fire hazard prediction and evaluation methods to cope with fire risks. In this paper, we propose three models based on statistical machine learning and optimized risk indexing for fire risk assessment. We build logistic regression, deep neural networks (DNN) and fire risk indexing models, and verify performances between proposed and traditional models using real investigated data related to fire occurrence in Korea. In general, fire prediction models currently in use do not provide satisfactory levels of accuracy. The reason for this result is that the factors affecting fire occurrence are very diverse and frequency of fire occurrence is very sparse. To improve accuracy of fire occurrence, we first build logistic regression and DNN models. In addition, we construct a fire risk indexing model for a more improved model of fire prediction. To illustrate comparison results between our research models and current fire prediction model, we use real fire data investigated in Korea between 2011 to 2017. From the experimental results of this paper, we can confirm that accuracy of prediction by the proposed method is superior to the existing fire occurrence prediction model. Therefore, we expect the proposed model to contribute to evaluating the possibility of fire risk in buildings and factories in the field of fire insurance and to calculate the fire insurance premium.

scholarly journals Establishment of Metabolic Syndrome Prediction Model for Occupational Population based on the Lasso Regression Algorithm

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiao-Ying Xie ◽  
Ming-Wei Wang ◽  
Zu-Ying Hu ◽  
Yan-Ming Chu ◽  
Cheng-Jian Cao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Lasso Regression

Abstract Background: Metabolic syndrome (MS) screening is important for the early detection of occupational population. This study aimed to screen out biomarkers related to MS and establish a risk assessment and prediction model for the routine physical examination of an occupational population.Methods: The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression algorithm of machine learning was used to screen biomarkers related to MS. Then, the accuracy of the logistic regression model was further verified based on the Lasso regression algorithm. Finally, the screened biomarkers were used to establish a logistic regression model and calculate the odds ratio (OR) of the corresponding biomarkers. Results: A total of 2844 occupational workers were included, and 10 biomarkers related to MS were screened. The area under the curve (AUC) value for non-Lasso and Lasso regression was 0.652 and 0.907, respectively. The established risk assessment model revealed that the main risk factors were basophil absolute count (OR: 3.38), platelet packed volume (OR: 2.63), leukocyte count (OR: 2.01), red blood cell count (OR: 1.99), and alanine aminotransferase level (OR: 1.53). Conclusion: The risk assessment model based on the Lasso regression algorithm helped identify Metabolic syndrome with high accuracy in physically examining an occupational population.

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