scholarly journals Towards the Development of a Probabilistic Approach to Informal Settlement Fire Spread Using Ignition Modelling and Spatial Metrics

Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Antonio Cicione ◽  
Lesley Gibson ◽  
Colleen Wade ◽  
Michael Spearpoint ◽  
Richard Walls ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Spatial Metrics ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Fire Scenarios ◽  
Potential Applications

Large conflagrations of informal settlements occur regularly, leaving thousands of people homeless daily and taking tens of thousands of lives annually. Over the past few years, a large amount of data has been collected from a number of full-scale informal settlement fire experiments. This paper uses that data with a semi-probabilistic fire model previously proposed by the authors, to illustrate the potential applications of the fire spread method proposed. The current model is benchmarked against a 20-dwelling full-scale informal settlement fire experiment, and the effects of the (a) ignition criteria, (b) wind direction, and (c) wind speeds on the predicted fire spread rates are investigated through the use of a parametric study. Colour maps of the fire spread rates and patterns are then used to visually interpret the effects of different types of fire scenarios and fire breaks. Finally, the fire spread capability within B-RISK is used to derive a linear equation for the potential fire spread rate as a function of the settlement spatial metrics (e.g., density and distance to nearest neighbour). To further illustrate the potential application of this work, the fire spread rate equation is then applied across the whole of Cape Town, South Africa, to show the 10 informal settlement areas most at “risk” of large conflagrations.

Experimental study of fire spread between multiple full scale informal settlement dwellings

2019 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
pp. 19-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Cicione ◽  
Richard S. Walls ◽  
Charles Kahanji
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Study ◽  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Full Scale

A physics-based approach to modelling grassland fires

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Mell ◽  
Mary Ann Jenkins ◽  
Jim Gould ◽  
Phil Cheney
Keyword(s):  
Blow Up ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Governing Equations ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Scale Field ◽  
Computational Resources ◽  
Semi Empirical

Physics-based coupled fire–atmosphere models are based on approximations to the governing equations of fluid dynamics, combustion, and the thermal degradation of solid fuel. They require significantly more computational resources than the most commonly used fire spread models, which are semi-empirical or empirical. However, there are a number of fire behaviour problems, of increasing relevance, that are outside the scope of empirical and semi-empirical models. Examples are wildland–urban interface fires, assessing how well fuel treatments work to reduce the intensity of wildland fires, and investigating the mechanisms and conditions underlying blow-up fires and fire spread through heterogeneous fuels. These problems are not amenable to repeatable full-scale field studies. Suitably validated coupled atmosphere–fire models are one way to address these problems. This paper describes the development of a three-dimensional, fully transient, physics-based computer simulation approach for modelling fire spread through surface fuels. Grassland fires were simulated and compared to findings from Australian experiments. Predictions of the head fire spread rate for a range of ambient wind speeds and ignition line-fire lengths compared favourably to experiments. In addition, two specific experimental cases were simulated in order to evaluate how well the model predicts the development of the entire fire perimeter.

Fire Growth in Grassland Fuels

1995 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 237 ◽  
Author(s):  
NP Cheney ◽  
JS Gould
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Fire Growth ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Steady Rate ◽  
Scale Field ◽  
Wildfire Spread

The development of grass fires originating from both point and line ignitions and burning in both open grasslands and woodlands with a grassy understorey was studied using 487 periods of fire spread and associated fuel, weather and fire-shape observations. The largest fires travelled more than 1000 m from the origin and the fastest 2-minute spread rate was over 2 m s-1. Given continuous fuel of uniform moisture content, the rate of forward spread was related to both the wind speed and the width of the head fire measured normal to the direction of fire travel. The head fire width required to achieve the potential quasi-steady rate of forward spread for the prevailing conditions increased with increasing wind speeds. These findings have important implications for relating small-scale field or laboratory measurements of fire spread to predictions of wildfire spread. The time taken to reach the potential quasi-steady rate of spread at any wind speed was highly variable. This time was strongly influenced by the frequency of changes in wind direction and the rate of development of a wide head fire.

Upward Fire Spread Rate Over Real-Scale EPS ETICS Façades

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biao Zhou ◽  
Hideki Yoshioka ◽  
Takafumi Noguchi ◽  
Kai Wang ◽  
Xinyan Huang
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Real Scale

scholarly journals Determination of Critical Separation Distance Between Dwellings in Informal Settlements Fire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Wang ◽  
Lesley Gibson ◽  
Mohamed Beshir ◽  
David Rush
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Separation Distance ◽  
Flame Length ◽  
Critical Distance ◽  
Fire Disaster ◽  
Critical Separation

AbstractApproximately one billion people across the globe are living in informal settlements with a large potential fire risk. Due to the high dwelling density, a single informal settlement dwelling fire may result in a very serious fire disaster leaving thousands of people homeless. In this work, a simple physics-based theoretical model was employed to assess the critical fire separation distance between dwellings. The heat flux and ejected flame length were obtained from a full-scale dwelling tests with ISO 9705 dimension (3.6 m × 2.4 m × 2.4 m) to estimate the radiation decay coefficient of the radiation heat flux away from the open door. The ignition potential of combustible materials in adjacent dwellings are analyzed based on the critical heat flux from cone calorimeter tests. To verify the critical distance in real informal settlement fire, a parallel method using aerial photography within geographic information systems (GIS), was employed to determine the critical separation distances in four real informal settlement fires of 2014–2015 in Masiphumelele, Cape Town, South Africa. The fire-spread distances were obtained as well through the real fires. The probabilistic analysis was conducted by Weibull distribution and logistic regression, and the corresponding separation distances were given with different fire spread probabilities. From the experiments with the assumption of no interventions and open doors and windows, it was established that the heat flux would decay from around 36 kW/m2 within a distance of 1.0 m to a value smaller than 5 kW/m2 at a distance of 4.0 m. Both experiments and GIS results agree well and suggest the ignition probabilities at distances of 1.0 m, 2.0 m and 3.0 m are 97%, 52% and 5% respectively. While wind is not explicitly considered in the work, it is implicit within the GIS analyses of fire spread risk, therefore, it is reasonable to say that there is a relatively low fire spread risk at distances greater than 3 m. The distance of 1.0 m in GIS is verified to well and conservatively predict the fire spread risk in the informal settlements.

Characterisation of the fuel and fire environment in southern Ontario’s tallgrass prairie

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (8) ◽  
pp. 1118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Kidnie ◽  
B. Mike Wotton
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Tallgrass Prairie ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Prairie Restoration ◽  
Prescribed Burn ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Tallgrass Prairie Restoration

Prescribed burning can be an integral part of tallgrass prairie restoration and management. Understanding fire behaviour in this fuel is critical to conducting safe and effective prescribed burns. Our goal was to quantify important physical characteristics of southern Ontario’s tallgrass fuel complex prior to and during prescribed burns and synthesise our findings into useful applications for the prescribed fire community. We found that the average fuel load in tallgrass communities was 0.70 kg m–2. Fuel loads varied from 0.38 to 0.96 kg m–2. Average heat of combustion did not vary by species and was 17 334 kJ kg–1. A moisture content model was developed for fully cured, matted field grass, which was found to successfully predict moisture content of the surface layers of cured tallgrass in spring. We observed 25 head fires in spring-season prescribed burns with spread rates ranging from 4 to 55 m min–1. Flame front residence time averaged 27 s, varying significantly with fuel load but not fire spread rate. A grassland spread rate model from Australia showed the closest agreement with observed spread rates. These results provide prescribed-burn practitioners in Ontario better information to plan and deliver successful burns.

scholarly journals Statistical Downscaling of Daily Wind Speed Variations

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 660-675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan C. Kirchmeier ◽  
David J. Lorenz ◽  
Daniel J. Vimont
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Scale Parameters ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Distribution Shape ◽  
Realistic Information

AbstractThis study presents the development of a method to statistically downscale daily wind speed variations in an extended Great Lakes region. A probabilistic approach is used, predicting a daily-varying probability density function (PDF) of local-scale daily wind speed conditioned on large-scale daily wind speed predictors. Advantages of a probabilistic method are that it provides realistic information on the variance and extremes in addition to information on the mean, it allows the autocorrelation of downscaled realizations to be tuned to match the autocorrelation of local-scale observations, and it allows flexibility in the use of the final downscaled product. Much attention is given to fitting the proper functional form of the PDF by investigating the observed local-scale wind speed distribution (predictand) as a function of the decile of the large-scale wind (predictor). It is found that the local-scale standard deviation and the local-scale shape parameter (from a gamma distribution) are nonconstant functions of the large-scale predictor. As such, a vector generalized linear model is developed to relate the large-scale and local-scale wind speeds. Maximum likelihood and cross validation are used to fit local-scale gamma distribution shape and scale parameters to the large-scale wind speed. The result is a daily-varying probability distribution of local-scale wind speed, conditioned on the large-scale wind speed.

First Ocean Going Ships With Springing and Whipping Included in the Ship Design

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaute Storhaug ◽  
Erlend Moe ◽  
Ricardo Barreto Portella ◽  
Tomazo Garzia Neto ◽  
Nelson Luiz Coelho Alves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Model Tests ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Transient Vibration ◽  
Hull Girder ◽  
Fatigue Evaluation ◽  
Wave Induced

It is well known that ships vibrate due to waves. The wave induced vibrations of the hull girder are referred to as springing (resonance) and whipping (transient vibration from impacts). These vibrations contribute to the fatigue damage of fatigue sensitive details. An Ore Carrier of 400 000 dwt is currently being built by DSME, and at time of delivery, it will be the world’s largest bulk (ore) carrier. The scantlings of large ships must be carefully designed with respect to global loading, and when extending the design beyond experience, it is also wise to consider all aspects that may affect operation and the life time costs. The vessel will also enter a long term contract and is therefore to be evaluated for 30 year Brazil-China operation. In order to minimize the risk of fatigue damage, the vessel is designed according to DNV’s class notation CSA-2 requiring direct calculations of the loading and strength. Further it has been requested to include the effect of springing and whipping in the design. Reliable numerical tools for assessing the additional fatigue effect of vibrations are non-existing. DNV has, however, developed an empirical guidance on how the additional effect may be taken into account based on previous development projects related to the effect of vibrations on large ore carriers Due to the size and route of operation of the new design, it has, however, been required by the owner to carry out model tests in both ballast and cargo condition in order to quantify the contribution from vibration. The results from this project have been used for verification and further calibration of DNV’s existing empirical guidance. A test program has been designed for the purpose of evaluating the consequence in head seas for the Brazil to China trade. Full scale measurements from previous development projects of ore carriers and model tests have been utilized to convert the current model tests results into estimated full scale results for the 400 000 dwt vessels. It is further important to carefully consider how the vibrations are to be included in the design verification, and to develop a procedure for taking into account the vibrations which results in reasonable scantlings based on in-service experience with similar designs and trades. This procedure has been developed, and a structural verification has been carried out for the design. The final outcome of the model test was in line with previous experience and in overall agreement with DNV’s empirical guidance, showing a significant contribution from vibrations to the fatigue damage. The springing/whipping vibrations more than doubled the fatigue damage compared to fatigue evaluation of the isolated wave induced loading. The cargo condition vibrated relatively more than experienced on smaller vessels. Various sources to establish the wave conditions for the Brazil to China ore trade were used, and the different sources resulted in significant differences in the predicted fatigue life of the design.

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