scholarly journals Combining the Monthly Drought Code and Paleoecological Data to Assess Holocene Climate Impact on Mediterranean Fire Regime

Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Lestienne ◽  
Christelle Hély ◽  
Thomas Curt ◽  
Isabelle Jouffroy-Bapicot ◽  
Boris Vannière
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Daily Weather Data

Currently, indexes from the Fire Weather Index System (FWI) are used to predict the daily fire hazard, but there is no reliable index available in the Mediterranean region to be compared with paleofire records and check for their long-term reliability. In order to assess the past fire hazard and the fire-season length, based on data availability and requirements for fire index computation, we first chose and tested the efficiency of the Drought Code (DC) in Corsica (the main French Mediterranean fire-prone region) over the current period (1979–2016). We then used DC as a benchmark to assess the efficiency of the Monthly Drought Code (MDC) and used it to assess the Fire-Season Length (FSL), which were both used to characterize the fire hazard. Finally, we computed the Holocene MDC and FSL based on the HadCM3B-M1 climate model (three dimensional, fully dynamic, coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model without flux adjustment) datasets and compared both index trends with those from proxies of paleofire, vegetation, and land use retrieved from sedimentary records in three Corsican lakes (Bastani, Nino, and Creno). Our strategy was to (i) assess fire hazard without the constraint of the daily weather-data requirement, (ii) reconstruct Holocene fire hazard from a climate perspective, and (iii) discuss the role of climate and human fire drivers based on the MDC-Paleofire proxy comparisons. Using both the Prométhée fire database and the ERA-Interim climate database over Corsica for the current period, we showed that DC values higher than 405 units efficiently discriminated fire-days from no-fire-days. The equivalent threshold value from MDC was set at 300 units. MDC and FSL indexes calculated for each of the past 11 millennia Before Present (11 ka BP) showed high values before 7 ka BP (above 300 units for MDC) and then lower values for the mid- to late Holocene (below 300 units for MDC). Climate appeared as a key driver to predict fire occurrences, promoting fires between 11 and 8 ka BP when summers were warmer than the current ones and reducing fire hazard after 7–6 ka BP due to wetter conditions. Since 5 ka BP, humans have taken control of the fire regime through agro-pastoralism, favoring large and/or frequent events despite less fire-prone climate conditions. The current fire hazard and fire-season length computed over the last few decades (1979–2016) both reported values that were respectively higher and longer than those assessed for the previous six millennia at least and comparable for those before 7 ka BP. For the next decades, due to climate warming associated with land abandonment (fuel accumulation) and the increase in human-related sources of ignition, we can expect an increase in fire hazard and larger fire events.

Trend analysis of fire season length and extreme fire weather in North America between 1979 and 2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 1009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Jain ◽  
Xianli Wang ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Extreme Fire

We have constructed a fire weather climatology over North America from 1979 to 2015 using the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. We tested for the presence of trends in potential fire season length, based on a meteorological definition, and extreme fire weather using the non-parametric Theil–Sen slope estimator and Mann–Kendall test. Applying field significance testing (i.e. joint significance of multiple tests) allowed the identification of the locations of significant trends, taking into account spatial correlations. Fire season length was found to be increasing over large areas of North America, especially in eastern Canada and the south-western US, which is consistent with a later fire season end and an earlier fire season start. Both positive and negative trends in potential fire spread days and the 99th percentile of FWI occurred in Canada and the contiguous United States, although the trends of largest magnitude and statistical significance were mostly positive. In contrast, the proportion of trends with significant decreases in these variables were much lower, indicating an overall increase in extreme fire weather. The smaller proportion of significant positive trends found over Canada reflects the truncation of the time series, necessary because assimilation of precipitation observations over Canada ceased in the reanalysis post-2002.

Evaluation of critical atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of forest fires in a climate change context in the northwest of Argentine Patagonia.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Dankiewicz ◽  
Matilde M. Rusticucci ◽  
Soledad M. Collazo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Argentine Patagonia ◽  
In Fire

<p>Forest fires are a global phenomenon and result from complex interactions between weather and climate conditions, ignition sources, and humans. Understanding these relationships will contribute to the development of management strategies for their mitigation and adaptation. In the context of climate change, fire hazard conditions are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to projected changes in climate, which include an increase in temperatures and the occurrence of more intense droughts. In Argentina, northwestern Patagonia is an area very sensitive to these changes because of its climate, vegetation, the urbanizations highly exposed to fires, and the proximity of two of the largest and oldest National Parks in the country. The main objective of this work is to analyze the possible influence of climate change on some atmospheric patterns related to fire danger in northwestern Argentine Patagonia. The data were obtained from two CMIP5 global climate models CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and GFDL-ESM2G and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, in the historical experiment and two representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The data used in this study cover the region's fire season (FS), from September to April, and were divided into five periods of 20 years each, a historical period (1986-2005), which was compared with four future periods: near (2021-2040), medium (2041-2060), far (2061-2080) and very far (2081-2100). The statistical distribution of the monthly composite fields of the FS was studied for some of the main fire drivers: sea surface temperature in the region of the index EN3.4 (SST EN3.4), sea level pressure anomalies ​​(SLP), surface air temperature anomalies (TAS), the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and monthly accumulated precipitation (PR). In addition, the partial correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the independent contribution of each atmospheric variable to the Fire Weather Index (FWI), used as a proxy for the mean FS danger. As a result, we observed that SST EN3.4 is the only one that could indicate a reduction in fire danger in the future, although no variable presented a significant contribution to the FWI with respect to the others. In the RCP8.5 scenario, greater fire danger is projected by the TAS, the PR, the SLP, and relative by the AOI, while in the RCP2.6 scenario, only the TAS shows influence leading to an increase, which would be offset by the opposite influence of SST EN3.4 for the same periods in this scenario. In conclusion, in RCP8.5 it could be assumed that there is a trend towards an increase in fire danger given the influence in this sense of most of the variables analyzed, but not in RCP2.6 where there would be no significant changes.</p>

Monthly adaptations of the Drought Code reveal nuanced fire–drought associations in montane forests with a mixed-severity fire regime

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphaël D. Chavardès ◽  
Lori D. Daniels ◽  
Bianca N. I. Eskelson ◽  
Paul D. Pickell
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Montane Forests ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Drought Conditions

We compared three monthly adaptations of the daily Drought Code (DC) of Canada’s Fire Weather Index System and applied them to interpret drought conditions associated with historical fires in montane forests of south-eastern British Columbia. The three adaptations were compared with the monthly mean DC calculated from daily values for the Palliser fire-weather station. Two adaptations improved on the existing Monthly DC calculated from monthly climate data by (1) accounting for overwinter drying and an early start to the fire season, and (2) improving estimates of effective precipitation. Using a cross-dated fire-scar record from 20 sites in montane forests surrounding the Palliser station, we found significant fire–drought associations from June to August with all adaptations, and significant associations in April and May with the two new adaptations. Of the 17 fire years from 1901 to 2013, 6years had low initial drought conditions that increased late in the fire season, and 5 years had high drought conditions throughout the fire season. We conclude that variable drought within and among fire seasons influenced fire severity. Our findings provide a connection between modern drought indices used to rank fire danger and drought effects on the historical mixed-severity fire regime in montane forests of south-eastern British Columbia.

scholarly journals Burned area trends in the Brazilian Cerrado: the roles of climate and anthropogenic drivers

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrícia S. Silva ◽  
Julia A. Rodrigues ◽  
Filippe L. M. Santos ◽  
Joana Nogueira ◽  
Allan A. Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Anthropogenic Drivers

<p>Fire is a natural disturbance in the Brazilian savannas, Cerrado, with substantial ecological and economic impacts. Most studies have characterized the fire regime in this biome using climate drivers but neglected the geographical variation of anthropogenic activities. These factors can trigger inappropriate fire-fighting decisions and biodiversity conservation policies. This takes special relevance in fire-prone biomes with recent fire management policies as Cerrado, which have been highly modified over the last decades due to changes in land use and climate. </p><p>Here, we aim to identify how variations in climate and anthropogenic drivers influence burned area (BA) trends at the regional level (microregions) in Cerrado. We evaluated satellite-derived BA (MCD64, collection 6) for 172 microregions from 2001 to 2018 across the entire biome. The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) was used as a proxy of climate using meteorological variables from ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis product. The human leverage, considered here as population density (PD) and land use (LU), were derived, respectively, from the annual census of the Brazillian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and from a Brazilian platform of annual land use/cover mapping (MapBiomas). Recent BA trends considering the drivers FWI, LU and PD, were estimated using the non-parametric Theil-Sen regression and the modified Mann-Kendall test. </p><p>Results showed BA trends over the last 18 years were significant and spatially contrasted along Cerrado: positive trends were found in the north-eastern region (in particular, the most recent agricultural frontier in Brazil: MATOPIBA) whereas the south-western region showed negative trends. PD showed positive trends in all microregions and, similarly, LU obtained positive trends over most of Cerrado. Positive FWI trends were also found over the central and north-eastern regions and FWI was the driver that explained most of BA variance in Cerrado. LU and PD were found to have much more complex relations with BA. Moreover, regarding the seasonal variability of microregions with positive and negative trends, the former were found to begin earlier in June and last longer, indicating that the overall fire season in Cerrado may be extending. </p><p>The approach presented here allows the exploration of recent trends affecting fires, crucial to inform and support better allocation of resources in fire management under current and future conditions.</p><p>The study was funded by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Brazil (CNPQ) through grants 305159/2018-6 and 441971/2018-0. P. Silva is funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), grant number SFRH/BD/146646/2019.</p>

Effects of meteorology on forest fires in India: A modeling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anasuya Barik ◽  
Somnath Baidya Roy
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Relationship

<p>Meteorology has a strong impact on forest fires. Meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation alter the fuel loading in forests, control the changes in spatial distribution, intensity and frequency of forest fires and changes in forest fire season. Hence, it is important to understand the relationship between forest fires and meteorological factors and build models that can simulate these relationships.</p><p>The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) has been used globally to assess and predict the fire behavior in various forest ecosystems. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) of CFFDRS models the relationship between meteorology and forest fires. In this study we calibrate the FWI over Indian forests using percentile analysis and logistic regression technique and test the performance using satellite-derived (MODIS daily fire data from 2003-2018) fire count and Fire Radiative Power (FRP). As the Indian forest landscape is highly heterogeneous, we calibrate the FWI over 4 FWI zones namely Himalayan, Deciduous, Western Ghats and Thorn forests based on IGBP forest classification and Koppen climatic zones.  Five fire danger classes having thresholds of 99<sup>th</sup>, 95<sup>th</sup>, 90<sup>th</sup>, 80<sup>th</sup> and 70<sup>th</sup>of FWI percentiles have been defined with decreasing severity. Results show that the calibrated FWI is capable of simulating the forest fire behavior over India. Sensitivity studies show that temperature and relative humidity are the key controlling factors of forest fires over India.</p><p>This study is one of the first attempts to use fire models to simulate fire behavior over India. It can serve as a launchpad for further work on fire hazard prediction and effects of climate change on fire hazard in India.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal expansion of global fire activity in response to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martín Senande-Rivera ◽  
Damián Insua-Costa ◽  
Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Climatic Characteristics

Abstract Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear. Here, we show that climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season. We categorize these regions according to the climatic characteristics of their fire season into four classes, within general Boreal, Temperate, Tropical and Arid climate zones. Based on climate model projections, we assess the modification of the fire-prone regions in extent and fire season length at the end of the 21st century. We find that due to global warming, the global fire-prone area will increase by 27%, mostly in Boreal (+95%) and Temperate (+17%) zones, where there will also be significant lengthenings of the potential fire season. Our estimates of the global expansion of fire-prone areas highlight the large but uneven impact of a warming climate on Earth’s environment.

Variation in local weather explains differences in fire regimes within a Québec south-eastern boreal forest landscape

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Drobyshev ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Martin P. Girardin ◽  
Byambagere Suran
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Spatial Arrangement ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Variable Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Lightning Strikes ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Local Weather

Variation in natural disturbance regime within a landscape is important for species population dynamics, because it controls spatial arrangement of sites providing regeneration and survival opportunities. In this study, we examine the differences in fire regime and evaluate possible sources of its variation between the surrounding mainland and the islands of Lake Duparquet (44.5 km2), a typical boreal lake in north-western Quebec, Canada. Dendrochronological reconstructions suggest that fires were frequent and of variable intensity on the islands, whereas fires were less frequent on the adjacent mainland, but were usually large and intense. Islands were significantly drier and warmer than the mainland, and maximum values of Fire Weather Index were significantly higher on the islands during both the early part of the fire season (May–June) and the whole fire season (May–September). The lightning density within the lake perimeter was significantly higher than in the surrounding mainland (0.63 v. 0.48 year–1 km–2 respectively). This pattern was a result of the differences in lightning density during the first half of the lightning season. The study suggests that more fire-prone local weather and higher frequency of lightning strikes could cause a higher frequency of low-intensity fires on the islands, compared with the mainland.

Post-Soviet economy development: From the past to the future

2017 ◽  
pp. 5-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Yasin
Keyword(s):  
Present Situation ◽  
Soviet Economy ◽  
Market Reforms ◽  
Democratic Development ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
Working Out ◽  
A Current

The article is devoted to major events in the history of the post-Soviet economy, their influence on forming and development of modern Russia. The author considers stages of restructuring, market reforms, transformational crisis, and recovery growth (1999-2011), as well as a current period which started in2011 and is experiencing serious problems. The present situation is analyzed, four possible scenarios are put forward for Russia: “inertia”, “mobilization”, “decisive leap”, “gradual democratic development”. More than 30 experts were questioned in the process of working out the scenarios.

The Effects of Changes in State Tax Enforcement on Corporate Income Tax Collections

2015 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Gupta ◽  
Daniel P. Lynch
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
State Level ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Corporate Income Tax ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Tax Policies ◽  
Tax Enforcement ◽  
Current Period ◽  
State Tax

ABSTRACT Using a new hand-collected database on state department of revenue (DOR) expenditures, this study examines the association between changes in state corporate tax enforcement expenditures and state-level tax collections during the 2000–2008 time period. The results, after addressing endogeneity concerns using a changes specification and state fixed effects, suggest a $1 increase (decrease) in current period corporate enforcement is associated with an $8 to $11 increase (decrease) in state tax collections two years into the future. The association appears to be attenuated in states with restrictive tax policies (i.e., unitary/combined reporting and related-party add-back provisions) suggesting that enforcement and restrictive tax policies could serve as substitutes. JEL Classifications: H26; H71; H72. Data Availability: Enforcement data were hand collected from state revenue department annual reports and by contacting state corporate income tax personnel. All annual reports are publicly available.

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