scholarly journals Measuring Initial Attack Suppression Effectiveness through Burn Probability

Fire ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Reimer ◽  
Dan K. Thompson ◽  
Nicholas Povak
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Exclusion Zone ◽  
Escape Probability ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Intensity Spread

Most wildfires in North America are quickly extinguished during initial attack (IA), the first phase of suppression. While rates of success are high, it is not clear how much IA suppression reduces annual fire risk across landscapes. This study introduces a method of estimating IA effectiveness by pairing burn probability (BP) analysis with containment probability calculations based on initial fire intensity, spread rate, and crew response time. The method was demonstrated on a study area in Kootenay National Park, Canada by comparing burn probabilities with and without modeled IA suppression. Results produced landscape-level analyses of three variables: burn probability, suppression effectiveness, and conditional escape probability. Overall, IA reduced mean study area BP by 78% as compared to a no-suppression scenario, but the primary finding was marked spatial heterogeneity. IA was most effective in recently burned areas (86% reduction), whereas mature, contiguous fuels moderated its influence (50%). Suppression was least effective in the designated wildfire exclusion zone, suggesting supplementary management approaches may be appropriate. While the framework includes assumptions about IA containment, results offer new insight into emergent risk patterns and how management strategies alter them. Managers can adopt these methods to anticipate, quantify, and compare fine-scale policy outcomes.

scholarly journals Using the Landsat Burned Area Products to Derive Fire History Relevant for Fire Management and Conservation in the State of Florida, Southeastern USA

Fire ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Casey Teske ◽  
Melanie K. Vanderhoof ◽  
Todd J. Hawbaker ◽  
Joe Noble ◽  
John Kevin Hiers
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Fire ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Behavior Modeling ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Burn Probability

Development of comprehensive spatially explicit fire occurrence data remains one of the most critical needs for fire managers globally, and especially for conservation across the southeastern United States. Not only are many endangered species and ecosystems in that region reliant on frequent fire, but fire risk analysis, prescribed fire planning, and fire behavior modeling are sensitive to fire history due to the long growing season and high vegetation productivity. Spatial data that map burned areas over time provide critical information for evaluating management successes. However, existing fire data have undocumented shortcomings that limit their use when detailing the effectiveness of fire management at state and regional scales. Here, we assessed information in existing fire datasets for Florida and the Landsat Burned Area products based on input from the fire management community. We considered the potential of different datasets to track the spatial extents of fires and derive fire history metrics (e.g., time since last burn, fire frequency, and seasonality). We found that burned areas generated by applying a 90% threshold to the Landsat burn probability product matched patterns recorded and observed by fire managers at three pilot areas. We then created fire history metrics for the entire state from the modified Landsat Burned Area product. Finally, to show their potential application for conservation management, we compared fire history metrics across ownerships for natural pinelands, where prescribed fire is frequently applied. Implications of this effort include increased awareness around conservation and fire management planning efforts and an extension of derivative products regionally or globally.

scholarly journals Effects of canopy midstory management and fuel moisture on wildfire behavior

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tirtha Banerjee ◽  
Warren Heilman ◽  
Scott Goodrick ◽  
Kevin Hiers ◽  
Rodman Linn
Keyword(s):  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Fuel Heterogeneity ◽  
Fire Exclusion ◽  
Intensity Spread

Wildfires burning more and more areas in North America can partly be attributed to fire exclusion activities in the past few decades which led to higher fuel accumulation. Mechanical thinning and prescribed burns are effective techniques to manage fuel loads and to establish a higher degree of control over future fire risk as well as to restore fire prone landscapes to their natural states of succession. However, given the complexity of interactions between fine scale fuel heterogeneity and wind, it is difficult to assess the success of thinning operations and prescribed burns. The present work addresses this issue systematically by simulating a fire starting from a simple fire line and moving through a vegetative environment where the midstory has been cleared in different degrees, leading to a canopy with almost no midstory, another with a sparse midstory and another with a thick midstory. The simulations are conducted for these three canopies under two different conditions, where the fuel moisture is high and where it is low. These six sets of simulations show widely different fire behavior, in terms of fire intensity, spread rate and consumption. To understand the physical mechanisms that lead to these differences, detailed analyses are conducted to look at wind patterns, mean flow and turbulent fluxes of momentum and energy. The analyses also lead to improved understanding of processes leading to high intensity crowning behavior in presence of a dense midstory. Moreover, this work highlights the importance of considering fine scale fuel heterogeneity, seasonality, wind effects and the associated fire-canopy-atmosphere interactions while considering prescribed burns and forest management operations.

scholarly journals Effects of canopy midstory management and fuel moisture on wildfire behavior

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tirtha Banerjee ◽  
Warren Heilman ◽  
Scott Goodrick ◽  
J. Kevin Hiers ◽  
Rod Linn
Keyword(s):  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Fuel Heterogeneity ◽  
Intensity Spread

Abstract Increasing trends in wildfire severity can partly be attributed to fire exclusion in the past century which led to higher fuel accumulation. Mechanical thinning and prescribed burns are effective techniques to manage fuel loads and to establish a higher degree of control over future fire risk, while restoring fire prone landscapes to their natural states of succession. However, given the complexity of interactions between fine scale fuel heterogeneity and wind, it is difficult to assess the success of thinning operations and prescribed burns. The present work addresses this issue systematically by simulating a simple fire line and propagating through a vegetative environment where the midstory has been cleared in different degrees, leading to a canopy with almost no midstory, another with a sparse midstory and another with a dense midstory. The simulations are conducted for these three canopies under two different conditions, where the fuel moisture is high and where it is low. These six sets of simulations show widely different fire behavior, in terms of fire intensity, spread rate and consumption. To understand the physical mechanisms that lead to these differences, detailed analyses are conducted to look at wind patterns, mean flow and turbulent fluxes of momentum and energy. The analyses also lead to improved understanding of processes leading to high intensity crowning behavior in presence of a dense midstory. Moreover, this work highlights the importance of considering fine scale fuel heterogeneity, seasonality, wind effects and the associated fire-canopy-atmosphere interactions while considering prescribed burns and forest management operations.

scholarly journals COMPORTAMENTO DO FOGO EM QUEIMAS CONTROLADAS DE VEGETAÇÃO DE ESTEPE NO MUNICÍPIO DE PALMEIRA, PARANÁ, BRASIL

FLORESTA ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 557
Author(s):  
Celso Darci Seger ◽  
Antonio Carlos Batista ◽  
Alexandre França Tetto ◽  
Ronaldo Viana Soares
Keyword(s):  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Average Moisture Content ◽  
Fuel Loading ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Controlled Burning ◽  
Heat Released

As queimas controladas constituem práticas de manejo utilizadas em diferentes tipos de vegetação e difundidas em vários países. No entanto, para a realização de tais práticas com segurança e eficiência é fundamental o conhecimento do comportamento do fogo. O objetivo desse trabalho foi caracterizar o comportamento do fogo em queimas controladas de vegetação Estepe Gramíneo-Lenhosa no estado do Paraná. Para isso, foi instalado um experimento no município de Palmeira, onde 20 parcelas foram queimadas, sendo metade a favor e metade contra o vento. A carga de material combustível fino estimada foi de 2,26 kg.m-2, com teor médio de umidade de 50,45%. A quantidade de material consumido pela queima foi de 1,76 kg.m-2, com uma eficiência média de queima de 76,86%. As médias obtidas, a favor e contra o vento, foram respectivamente: velocidade de propagação do fogo de 0,049 e 0,012 m.s-1, altura das chamas de 1,34 e 0,843 m, intensidade do fogo de 210,53 e 50,68 kcal.m-1.s-1 e calor liberado de 4.067,19 e 4.508,92 kcal.m-2. Os resultados permitiram concluir que as queimas controladas em vegetação de campos naturais, realizadas dentro dos critérios estabelecidos de planos de queima, são viáveis e seguras sob o ponto de vista de perigo de incêndios.Palavras chave: Queima prescrita; material combustível; intensidade do fogo; perigo de incêndios. AbstractFire behavior of prescribed burns in grassland on Palmeira county, Paraná, Brazil. The prescribed burns are practices of management used in different types of vegetation and widespread in several countries. However, to carry out such practices safely and effectively is fundamental knowledge of fire behavior. The aim of this study was to characterize the fire behavior in controlled burning of grassland vegetation in Paraná state. For this, an experiment was conducted in Palmeira County, where 20 plots were burned, half in favor and half against the wind. The estimated fine fuel loading was 2.26 kg.m-2, with average moisture content of 50.45%. The fuel consumption by burning was 1.76 kg.m-2 with an average efficiency of burning of 76.86%. The averages, for and against the wind, were: speed of fire spread of 0.049 and 0.012 m.s-1, the flame height of 1.34 m and 0.843, fire intensity of 210.53 and 50.68 kcal.m-1.s-1 and heat released from 4,067.19 and 4,508.92 kcal.m-2. The results show that the controlled burnings of grasslands vegetation, carried out within the established criteria burning plans are feasible and safe from the aspect of fire danger.Keywords: Prescribed burns; fuel loading; fire intensity; fire risk.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Characteristics of Recent Major Wildfires in the USA, Australia and Brazil in 2018–2019 Using Multi-Source Satellite Products

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahlatse Kganyago ◽  
Lerato Shikwambana
Keyword(s):  
Forest Cover ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

This study analysed the characteristics of the recent (2018–2019) wildfires that occurred in the USA, Brazil, and Australia using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fires (AF), fire radiative power (FRP, MW) and burned area (BA) products. Meteorological and environmental parameters were also analysed. The study found various patterns in the spatial distribution of fires, FRP and BA at the three sites, associated with various vegetation compositions, prevailing meteorological and environmental conditions and anthropogenic activities. We found significant fire clusters along the western and eastern coasts of the USA and Australia, respectively, while vastly distributed clusters were found in Brazil. Across all sites, significant fire intensity was recorded over forest cover (FC) and shrublands (SL), attributed to highly combustible tree crown fuel load characterised by leafy canopies and thin branches. In agreement, BA over FC was the highest in the USA and Australia, while Brazil was dominated by the burning of SL, characteristic of fire-tolerant Cerrado. The relatively lower BA over FC in Brazil can be attributed to fuel availability and proximity to highly flammable cover types such as cropland, SL and grasslands rather than fuel flammability. Overall, this study contributes to a better understanding of wildfires in various regions and the underlying environmental and meteorological causal factors, towards better wildfire disaster management strategies and habitat-specific firefighting.

An optimization model for locating fuel treatments across a landscape to reduce expected fire losses

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 868-877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Wei ◽  
Douglas Rideout ◽  
Andy Kirsch
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Information ◽  
Solution Process ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fuel Treatments ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
Mip Model ◽  
Fire Ignition

Locating fuel treatments with scarce resources is an important consideration in landscape-level fuel management. This paper developed a mixed integer programming (MIP) model for allocating fuel treatments across a landscape based on spatial information for fire ignition risk, conditional probabilities of fire spread between raster cells, fire intensity levels, and values at risk. The fire ignition risk in each raster cell is defined as the probability of fire burning a cell because of the ignition within that cell. The conditional probability that fire would spread between adjacent cells A and B is defined as the probability of a fire spreading into cell B after burning in cell A. This model locates fuel treatments by using a fire risk distribution map calculated through fire simulation models. Fire risk is assumed to accumulate across a landscape following major wind directions and the MIP model locates fuel treatments to efficiently break this pattern of fire risk accumulation. Fuel treatment resources are scarce and such scarcity is introduced through a budget constraint. A test case is designed based on a portion of the landscape (15 552 ha) within the Southern Sierra fire planning unit to demonstrate the data requirements, solution process, and model results. Fuel treatment schedules, based upon single and dual wind directions, are compared.

Changing fuel management strategies - The challenge of meeting new information and analysis needs

2001 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan G. Conard ◽  
Timothy Hartzell ◽  
Michael W. Hilbruner ◽  
G. Thomas Zimmerman
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Fuel Management ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Ecological Principles ◽  
In Fire

This paper was presented at the conference ‘Integrating spatial technologies and ecological principles for a new age in fire management’, Boise, Idaho, USA, June 1999 ‘The earth, born in fire, baptized by lightning since before life"s beginning, has been and is a fire planet.’ E.V. Komarek Attitudes and policies concerning wildland fire, fire use, and fire management have changed greatly since early European settlers arrived in North America. Active suppression of wildfires accelerated early in the 20th Century, and areas burned dropped dramatically. In recent years, burned areas and cost of fires have begun to increase, in part due to fuel buildups resulting from fire suppression. The importance of fire as an ecosystem process is also being increasingly recognized. These factors are leading to changes in Federal agency fire and fuels management policies, including increased emphasis on use of prescribed fire and other treatments to reduce fuel loads and fire hazard. Changing fire management strategies have highlighted the need for better information and improved risk analysis techniques for setting regional and national priorities, and for monitoring and evaluating the ecological, economic, and social effects and tradeoffs of fuel management treatments and wildfires. The US Department of Interior and USDA Forest Service began the Joint Fire Science Program in 1998 to provide a sound scientific basis for implementing and evaluating fuel management activities. Development of remote sensing and GIS tools will play a key role in enabling land managers to evaluate hazards, monitor changes, and reduce risks to the environment and the public from wildland fires.

Forest fire risk assessment using point process modelling of fire occurrence and Monte Carlo fire simulation

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyeyoung Woo ◽  
Woodam Chung ◽  
Jonathan M. Graham ◽  
Byungdoo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Occurrence Probability ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Forest Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Ignition

Risk assessment of forest fires requires an integrated estimation of fire occurrence probability and burn probability because fire spread is largely influenced by ignition locations as well as fuels, weather, topography and other environmental factors. This study aims to assess forest fire risk over a large forested landscape using both fire occurrence and burn probabilities. First, we use a spatial point processing method to generate a fire occurrence probability surface. We then perform a Monte Carlo fire spread simulation using multiple fire ignition points generated from the fire occurrence surface to compute burn probability across the landscape. Potential loss per land parcel due to forest fire is assessed as the combination of burn probability and government-appraised property values. We applied our methodology to the municipal boundary of Gyeongju in the Republic of Korea. The results show that the density of fire occurrence is positively associated with low elevation, moderate slope, coniferous land cover, distance to roads, high density of tombs and interaction among fire ignition locations. A correlation analysis among fire occurrence probability, burn probability, land property value and potential value loss indicates that fire risk in the study landscape is largely associated with the spatial pattern of burn probability.

scholarly journals Large-scale fire risk planning for initial attack and fuels: the U.S. state of Idaho

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas B. Rideout ◽  
Nicole Kernohan ◽  
Joe-Riley Epps
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Risk Planning

scholarly journals Estimation of the Contribution of Dust Storm on April 16, 2020 to Radioactive Contamination of the Atmosphere During Forest Fires in the Exclusion Zone

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 81-95
Author(s):  
M. M. Таlerko ◽  
◽  
Т. D. Lev ◽  
V. O. Кashpur ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Dust Storm ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Activity Concentration ◽  
Total Activity ◽  
137Cs Activity ◽  
Wildland Fires ◽  
Exclusion Zone ◽  
137Cs Activity Concentration ◽  
Burned Areas

On April 16, 2020, a strong dust storm was observed in the northern regions of Ukraine, which coincided with the period of intense wildland fires in the Chornobyl exclusion zone. The activity of 137Cs in aerosol particles released into the atmosphere as a result of resuspension from burned areas in the meadow biocenoses in the exclusion zone is evaluated in the article. Resuspension of radioactively contaminated particles from burned areas formed after fires in meadow biocenoses of the exclusion zone can be a powerful source of air contamination in the zone itself, as well as increase of the radionuclides transport outside it. The total 137Cs activity that entered the atmosphere during the dust storm was estimated to be about 162 GBq, i. e. up to 20% of the total activity emitted in the air during the entire period of forest fires on April 3–20, 2020. The 137Cs emission from burned areas during the dust storm on April 16 and 17 amounted to 0.24% of the total stock of 137Cs activity in this territory. According to the results of modeling, the relative contribution of wildland fires and resuspension due to the dust storm on April 16 and 17 significantly depends on the distance to the emission sources. It was found that the resuspension of radioactive particles from burned areas during the dust storm determined 80–95% of the 137Cs activity concentration in the surface air near Chornobyl nuclear power plant and in Chornobyl city and the rest was due to the continuing forest fires in neighboring territories. The maximum 3-hour averaged value of the 137Cs activity concentration in the air due to resuspension from the burned areas was obtained for the location of the monitoring post VRP-750 of SSE “Ecocenter” to be about 28 mBq/m3 for the period 9–12 hours on April 16. In Kyiv, the 3-hour averaged 137Cs activity concentration due to the dust storm in the Exclusion Zone was calculated as 44 μBq/m3 in the period from 9 to 12 hours on April 17, 2020. This value was only about 4% of the total 137Cs activity in the air in this period.

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