scholarly journals Tree-Ring-Recorded Drought Variability in the Northern Daxing’anling Mountains of Northeastern China

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Yu ◽  
Sher Shah ◽  
Guang Zhou ◽  
Zhenzhao Xu ◽  
Qijing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The North

We developed two tree-ring width chronologies of Mongolian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) from the low elevation forest of the northern Daxing’anling Mountains of Inner Mongolia. Although the two chronologies come from different sampling sites, significant correlations existed among the chronologies (r = 0.318), and the first principal component (PC1) accounted for 65.9% of total variance over their common period 1792–2016. Climate-growth correlation analysis revealed that the previous June and July Palmer drought severity index (PDSIp6-7) was the main climatic factor controlling tree-ring growth. Using a linear regression model, we reconstructed the PDSIp6-7 for the past 225 years (1792–2016). The reconstruction satisfied required statistical calibration and validation tests, and represented 38.6% of the PDSI variance recorded by instruments over the period 1955–2016. Six wet and five dry periods were revealed during these 225 years. The drought of 1903–1927 was the most severe drought in the study area in the last 225 years. Comparison with other tree-ring-based moisture-sensitive sequences from nearby regions confirmed a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction. The results of a spatial climate correlation analysis with a gridded PDSI dataset revealed that our reconstructions contained strong regional drought signals for the southern Stanovoy Range and the northern Daxing’anling Mountains. The power spectrum revealed the existence of significant frequency cycles, which may be linked to large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, solar activity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

scholarly journals A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 783-798
Author(s):  
Sarir Ahmad ◽  
Liangjun Zhu ◽  
Sumaira Yasmeen ◽  
Yuandong Zhang ◽  
Zongshan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Cedrus Deodara ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract. The rate of global warming has led to persistent drought. It is considered to be the preliminary factor affecting socioeconomic development under the background of the dynamic forecasting of the water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semiarid Hindu Kush range are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537–2017. We reconstructed the March–August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the past 424 years, going back to 1593 CE. Our reconstruction featured nine dry periods (1593–1598, 1602–1608, 1631–1645, 1647–1660, 1756–1765, 1785–1800, 1870–1878, 1917–1923, and 1981–1995) and eight wet periods (1663–1675, 1687–1708, 1771–1773, 1806–1814, 1844–1852, 1932–1935, 1965–1969, and 1990–1999). This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in West Asia, thereby confirming its reliability. The multi-taper method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1–2.4, 3.3, 6.0, 16.8, and 34.0–38.0 years. The drought patterns could be linked to the large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of the Hindu Kush mountain range in northern Pakistan.

scholarly journals Juniper Tree-Ring Data from the Kuramin Range (Northern Tajikistan) Reveals Changing Summer Drought Signals in Western Central Asia

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Chen ◽  
Tongwen Zhang ◽  
Andrea Seim ◽  
Shulong Yu ◽  
Ruibo Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
June July

Coniferous forests cover the mountains in many parts of Central Asia and provide large potentials for dendroclimatic studies of past climate variability. However, to date, only a few tree-ring based climate reconstructions exist from this region. Here, we present a regional tree-ring chronology from the moisture-sensitive Zeravshan juniper (Juniperus seravschanica Kom.) from the Kuramin Range (Tajikistan) in western Central Asia, which is used to reveal past summer drought variability from 1650 to 2015 Common Era (CE). The chronology accounts for 40.5% of the variance of the June–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the instrumental period (1901 to 2012). Seven dry periods, including 1659–1696, 1705–1722, 1731–1741, 1758–1790, 1800–1842, 1860–1875, and 1931–1987, and five wet periods, including 1742–1752, 1843–1859, 1876–1913, 1921–1930, and 1988–2015, were identified. Good agreements between drought records from western and eastern Central Asia suggest that the PDSI records retain common drought signals and capture the regional dry/wet periods of Central Asia. Moreover, the spectral analysis indicates the existence of centennial (128 years), decadal (24.3 and 11.4 years), and interannual (8.0, 3.6, 2.9, and 2.0 years) cycles, which may be linked with climate forces, such as solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis between the scPDSI reconstruction and large-scale atmospheric circulations during the reconstructed extreme dry and wet years can provide information about the linkages of extremes in our scPDSI record with the large-scale ocean–atmosphere–land circulation systems.

scholarly journals Growth response of Abies spectabilis to climate along an elevation gradient of the Manang valley in the central Himalayas

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2245-2254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samresh Rai ◽  
Binod Dawadi ◽  
Yafeng Wang ◽  
Xiaoming Lu ◽  
Huang Ru ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Elevation Gradient ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Moisture Stress ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Tree Ring Width ◽  
Standard Tree

Abstract The Himalayas are characterized by a broad gradient of bioclimatic zones along their elevation. However, less is known how forest growth responds to climatic change along elevation. In this study, four standard tree-ring width chronologies of Himalayan fir (Abiesspectabilis) were developed, spanning 142–649 years along an elevation gradient of 3076–3900 m a.s.l. Principal component analysis classified the four chronologies into two groups; the ones at lower elevations (M1 and M2) and higher elevations (M3 and M4) show two distinct growth trends. Radial growth is limited by summer (June–August) precipitation at M3, and by precipitation during spring (March–May) and summer at M4. It is limited by spring temperatures and winter precipitation (December–February) at M1. Tree-ring width chronologies also significantly correlate with winter and spring Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) at M1, and with summer PDSI at M3 and M4. Thus, Himalayan fir growth at high elevations is mainly limited by moisture stress rather than by low temperatures. Furthermore, the occurrence of missing rings coincides with dry periods, providing additional evidence for moisture limitation of Himalayan fir growth.

scholarly journals The 600-mm precipitation isoline distinguishes tree-ring-width responses to climate in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 359-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Liu ◽  
Huiming Song ◽  
Changfeng Sun ◽  
Yi Song ◽  
Qiufang Cai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Variations ◽  
Tree Ring Width ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
Tree Ring Data

AbstractThe numerous temperature and precipitation reconstructions in China based on tree-ring-width data have played significant roles in furthering the understanding of past climate changes. However, the geographical variability in the responses of trees to climate variations in China remains largely undetermined. Here, we describe an important spatial boundary in the response of trees to climate variations, namely the 600-mm annual precipitation isoline. We found that, to the north of this line, tree-ring widths are usually positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with growing-season temperature. To the south of this line, the tree-ring widths respond positively to temperature, and winter half-year temperatures are the main reconstructed parameters, especially on the third topographical step of China. We also found that precipitation reconstructions based on tree-ring data and the Palmer Drought Severity Index almost exclusively fall in the region of the 200- to 600-mm annual precipitation isolines, not other regions. Our findings indicate that, when using multiple tree-ring-width chronologies for large-scale past climate reconstructions, the climatic signal of each tree-ring-width series should be carefully considered.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KEKERINGAN DI KABUPATEN SRAGEN DENGAN METODE PALMER, THORNTHWAITE, DAN STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-124
Author(s):  
Safrudin Nor Aripbilah ◽  
Heri Suprapto
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Suitable Method ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Dry Conditions

El Nino and La Nina in Indonesia are one of the reasons that caused climate changes, which has possibility of drought and flood disasters. Sragen Regency wherethe dry season occurs, drought happened meanwhile other areas experience floods and landslides. A study on drought needs to be carried out so as to reduce the risk of losses due to the drought hazard. This study is to determine the drought index in Sragen Regency based on several methods and the correlation of each methods and its suitability to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall. Drought was analyzed using several methods such as Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Thornthwaite-Matter, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) then correlated with SOI to determine the most suitable method for SOI. The variables are applied in this method are rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration. The results showed that the drought potential of the Palmer method is only in Near Normal conditions, which is 1%, Severe drought conditions are 29% for the Thornthwaite-Matter method, and Extreme Dry conditions only reach 1,11% for the SPI method. The PDSI and SPI methods are inversely proportional to the Thornthwaite-Matter method and the most suitable method for SOI values or rainfall is the SPI method. These three methods can be identified the potential for drought with only a few variables so that they could be applied if they only have those data.Keywords: Drought, PDSI, Thornthwaite-Matter, SPI, SOI

scholarly journals Last Millennium Reanalysis with an expanded proxy database and seasonal proxy modeling

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1251-1273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Tardif ◽  
Gregory J. Hakim ◽  
Walter A. Perkins ◽  
Kaleb A. Horlick ◽  
Michael P. Erb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Tree Ring Width ◽  
Forward Models ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Northern Latitudes

Abstract. The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) utilizes an ensemble methodology to assimilate paleoclimate data for the production of annually resolved climate field reconstructions of the Common Era. Two key elements are the focus of this work: the set of assimilated proxy records and the forward models that map climate variables to proxy measurements. Results based on an updated proxy database and seasonal regression-based forward models are compared to the LMR prototype, which was based on a smaller set of proxy records and simpler proxy models formulated as univariate linear regressions against annual temperature. Validation against various instrumental-era gridded analyses shows that the new reconstructions of surface air temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height are significantly improved (from 10 % to more than 100 %), while improvements in reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index are more modest. Additional experiments designed to isolate the sources of improvement reveal the importance of the updated proxy records, including coral records for improving tropical reconstructions, and tree-ring density records for temperature reconstructions, particularly in high northern latitudes. Proxy forward models that account for seasonal responses, and dependence on both temperature and moisture for tree-ring width, also contribute to improvements in reconstructed thermodynamic and hydroclimate variables in midlatitudes. The variability of temperature at multidecadal to centennial scales is also shown to be sensitive to the set of assimilated proxies, especially to the inclusion of primarily moisture-sensitive tree-ring-width records.

scholarly journals Last 1100 yr of precipitation variability in western central Asia as revealed by tree-ring data from the Pamir-Alay

2018 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Opała-Owczarek ◽  
Tadeusz Niedźwiedź
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Transfer Function Method ◽  
Tree Ring Data

AbstractWe developed a 1108 yr chronology of tree-ring widths, based on 64 Himalayan pencil juniper (Juniperus semiglobosa Regel) trees, for the Pamir-Alay Mountains, central Asia. Dendroclimatological analysis demonstrates that precipitation has significant effects on tree growth in the semiarid mountainous area of northwestern Tajikistan located on the edge of the great midlatitude Karakum and Kyzylkum deserts. The highest level of linear correlation (r=0.67) is observed between tree growth and seasonalised winter (previous December–February) precipitation. Our studies also show that moisture (precipitation/Palmer Drought Severity Index) from the previous June to the current September was the dominant climatic factor accounting for interannual variations in tree-ring width, suggesting that this should be considered in climate reconstruction. Using the transfer function method, we reconstructed the region’s drought history over the period AD 908–2015. The results of this moisture reconstruction showed that the most recent millennium was characterised by series of dry and wet stages. The driest periods occurred before 1000, 1200–1250, and at the end of the eighteenth century and beginning of the nineteenth century. The wettest conditions existed in 1650–1700 and after 1990.

scholarly journals Development of a Larix principis-rupprechtii tree-ring width chronology and its climatic signals for the southern Greater Higgnan Mountains

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tongwen Zhang ◽  
Shulong Yu ◽  
Yujiang Yuan ◽  
Liping Huang ◽  
Shengxia Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Tree Ring Width ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Climatic Signals

Abstract Forty-one living larch (Larix principis-rupprechtii) trees collected from two sampling sites in 1310–1530 m a.s.l. in the southern Greater Higgnan Mountains in the northeastern China are used to develop a regional tree-ring width chronology. The credible chronology spans 185 years from 1830 to 2014. The results of correlation analyses indicate that moisture is the main climatic factor controlling radial growth of larch trees in this mountainous area. Spatial correlation proves that the regional tree-ring width chronology contains climatic signals representative for a large area including the eastern Mongolian Plateau and Nuluerhu Mountains. A comparison between the newly developed chronology and a May–July Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstruction for the Ortindag Sand Land reveals similar variations, particularly in the low-frequency domain. The tree-ring records also capture a severe and sustained drying trend recorded in the 1920s across a wide area of northern China.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of the March–August PDSI since 1703 AD based on tree rings of Chinese pine (<i>Pinus tabulaeformis</i> Carr.) in the Lingkong Mountain, southeast Chinese loess Plateau

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 509-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Cai ◽  
Y. Liu ◽  
Y. Lei ◽  
G. Bao ◽  
B. Sun
Keyword(s):  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Chinese Loess Plateau ◽  
Pinus Tabulaeformis ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Chinese Loess ◽  
Pdsi Reconstruction

Abstract. We utilised tree-ring cores, collected from three sites at Lingkong Mountain located in the southeast part of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), to develope a regional ring-width chronology. Significant positive correlations between the tree-ring index and the monthly Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were identified, indicating that the radial growth of trees in this region was moisture-limited. The March–August mean PDSI was quantitatively reconstructed from 1703 to 2008 with an explained variance of 46.4%. Seven dry periods during 1719–1726, 1742–1748, 1771–1778, 1807–1818, 1832–1848, 1867–1932 and 1993–2008 and six wet periods during 1727–1741, 1751–1757, 1779–1787, 1797–1805, 1853–1864 and 1934–1957 were revealed in our reconstruction. Among them, 1867–1932 and 1934–1957 were identified as the longest dry and wet periods, respectively. On the centennial scale, the 19th century was recognised as the driest century. The drying tendency since 1960s was evident. However, recent drought in 1993–2008 was still within the frame of natural climate variability based on the 306 yr PDSI reconstruction. The dry and wet phases of Lingkong Mountain were in accordance with changes in the summer Asian-Pacific oscillation (IAPO) and sunspot numbers, they also showed strong similarity to other tree-ring based moisture indexes in large areas in and around the CLP, indicating the moisture variability in the CLP was almost synchronous and closely related with large-scale land–ocean–atmospheric circulation and solar activity. Spatial correlation analysis suggested that this PDSI reconstruction could represent the moisture variations for most parts of the CLP, and even larger area of northern China and east Mongolia. Multi-taper spectral analysis revealed significant cycles at the inter-annual (2–7 yr), inter-decadal (37.9 yr) and centennial (102 yr) scales. Results of this study are very helpful for us to improve the knowledge of past climate change in the CLP and enable us to prevent and manage future natural disasters.

scholarly journals Moisture variation inferred from tree rings in north central China and its links with the remote oceans

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeyu Zheng ◽  
Liya Jin ◽  
Jinjian Li ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Xiaojian Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Correlation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Central China ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
North Central ◽  
The North ◽  
Moisture Variation ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractIn this study we presented a composite standard chronology, spanning 1635–2018 to reconstruct May–July moisture variation in north central China. Our reconstruction revealed four severe dry epochs and five pronounced wet epochs. Additionally, spatial correlation analysis of our reconstruction with the actual self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index showed that our reconstruction was representative of large-scale May–July moisture changes. Both the severe dry and pronounced wet epochs showed one-to-one correspondence with other reconstructions nearby during their common periods, which demonstrated the reliability of our reconstruction backwards in time. Spectral analysis showed that significant spectral peaks were found at 2.1–3.8 years, which fell within the overall bandwidth of the El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO). The spatial correlation patterns between our reconstruction and sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific further confirmed the link between regional moisture and ENSO, with warm-phase ENSO resulting in low moisture and vice-versa. However, this link was time-dependent during the past four centuries, and was modulated by different phases of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean. Additionally, significant peaks at 24.9–46.5 years and spatial correlation patterns indicated that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation may be the possible forcing factors of regional moisture at lower frequencies.

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