scholarly journals Exploring the Future of Fuel Loads in Tasmania, Australia: Shifts in Vegetation in Response to Changing Fire Weather, Productivity, and Fire Frequency

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Harris ◽  
Tomas Remenyi ◽  
Paul Fox-Hughes ◽  
Peter Love ◽  
Nathaniel Bindoff
Keyword(s):  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fuel Loads ◽  
The Future

Exploiting Poisson additivity to predict fire frequency from maps of fire weather and land cover in boreal forests of Québec, Canada

Ecography ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 200-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean Marchal ◽  
Steve G. Cumming ◽  
Eliot J. B. McIntire
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Weather

Wildland Fire Patch Dynamics in the Chaparral of Southern California and Northern Baja California

1997 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 221 ◽  
Author(s):  
RA Minnich ◽  
YH Chou
Keyword(s):  
Patch Dynamics ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Fire Control ◽  
Patch Structure ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Rotation Periods ◽  
Exogenous Factors

In ecosystems where fire occurrence has significant time-dependence, fire sequences should exhibit system-regulation that is distinguished by nonrandom (nonstationary), self-organizing patch dynamics related to spatially constrained fire probabilities. Exogenous factors such as fire weather, precipitation variability, and terrain alter the flammability of vegetation and encourage randomness in fire occurrence within pre-existing patch structure. In Californian chaparral, the roles of succession/fuel build-up and exogenous factors is examined by taking advantage of a 100 yr 'natural experiment' in southern California (SCA) and northern Baja California, Mexico (BCA), where factors influencing fire occurrence have been systematically altered by divergent management systems. In SCA, suppression has been practiced since 1900. In BCA, fire control was not official policy until the 1960s and has not been effectively practiced. Fire perimeter histories for 1920-1971 in SCA and BCA, reconstructed from fire history records and repeat aerial photographs, are compared for fire frequency (events/area), size, rotation periods, stand age structure, ignition rates, weather, burning season, and drought. Landscape-scale fire rotation periods are long (≈70 yr) regardless of management policies because fire occurrence is driven by the gradual development of fire hazard during succession, produced by small annual increments of growth and litterfall, as well as by high fuel moisture in evergreen shrubs. Without fire control frequent fires establish fine-grained mosaics. Fire control reduces fire frequencies, increases fire size, and encourages coarse-scale patch structure. Patch dynamics exhibit evidences of nonrandom turnover. Fire size distributions reflect the nearest-neighbor distances between patches below some age-dependent combustion threshold (CT) in the patch mosaic that resist the spread of fires in stands older than CT. Regional burn rates are poorly related to fire frequency, ignition rates, drought, and terrain. The small size of fires in BCA may be reinforced by interactions between fire and pre-existing, fine-grained patch structure, and by random fire occurrence in the probability distributions of fire weather and climate. In SCA, fires are nonrandomly restricted by fire control to extreme weather.

scholarly journals Development of an Experimental Reactor VVER-SKD 30 MW on Supercritical Water

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Novikova G.S. ◽  
Bogoslovskaya G.P.
Keyword(s):  
Supercritical Water ◽  
Nuclear Industry ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Industry Studies ◽  
Single Pass ◽  
Fuel Loads ◽  
Experimental Reactor ◽  
Supercritical Parameters ◽  
The Future ◽  
Uranium Plutonium

The results of neutron-physical calculations of various variants of the location of the VVER-SKD core of 30 MW on the water of supercritical parameters are considered. The calculation is made for various fuel loads: uranium, plutonium and thorium, which in the future is considered as one of the main energy resources of the nuclear industry. Studies show that it is advisable to design a reactor with a single-pass flow of coolant and a reflector of at least 20 cm.

Impact of grazing on fine fuels and potential wildfire behaviour in a non-native tropical grassland

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward W. Evans ◽  
Lisa M. Ellsworth ◽  
Creighton M. Litton
Keyword(s):  
Cattle Grazing ◽  
Model Potential ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Flame Length ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Livestock Grazing ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Native Grass ◽  
Fuel Loads ◽  
The Tropics

Non-native grass invasion has increased fuel loads and fire frequency in areas throughout the tropics, resulting in a non-native grass–wildfire cycle with negative impacts on native biodiversity and ecological processes. Megathyrsus maximus (guinea grass) invades dry and mesic ecosystems throughout the tropics, increasing fuel loads and wildfire intensity. Eradication of M. maximus is difficult, making effective wildfire management critical to the protection of adjacent developed areas and remnant native ecosystems. The use of domestic livestock grazing in non-native grass ecosystems may be effective at decreasing fine fuel loads and potential wildfire behaviour. Our objectives were to: (1) quantify live and dead fine fuel loads and moistures in a M. maximus–dominated ecosystem before and after cattle grazing, and (2) use these data to model potential wildfire behaviour in grazed and ungrazed M. maximus grasslands with the BehavePlus fire modelling system. Fine fuel loads and moistures, climate variables, and predicted wildfire behaviour were quantified at the same site (n = 1) over two 5-month periods (March–July 2009, ungrazed; March–July 2010, grazed) in the Wai‘anae Kai Forest Reserve on the Island of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i. Strong to conclusive evidence existed that cattle grazing in this system decreased dead and total fuel loads, but did not alter live fuel loads, or live and dead fuel moistures. Modelled wildfire behaviour under both low and average fuel moisture scenarios revealed that grazing decreased the potential rate of spread by 44–52% and flame length by 36–41%. These results demonstrate that cattle grazing may be an effective approach for reducing fuel loads and potential wildfire behaviour in non-native-dominated grasslands on tropical islands.

Iberian Fire Regimes for Future Climate Scenarios using a Climate Ensemble

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomás Calheiros ◽  
Mário Pereira ◽  
João Nunes
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Weather Risk ◽  
The Future

<div> <p><strong>Iberia Fire Regimes for Future Climate Scenarios using a Climate Ensemble</strong></p> <p><strong> </strong></p> <p>T. Calheiros<sup>(1)</sup>, M.G. Pereira<sup>(2,3)</sup>, J.P. Nunes<sup>(1)</sup></p> <p><sup>(1)</sup> CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal</p> <p><sup>(2)</sup>Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas (CITAB), Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal</p> <p><sup>(3)</sup>Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal</p>   <p> </p> </div><p> </p><p>Wildfires are generating higher concern worldwide, especially in the Mediterranean regions. Fire season severity and total annual burnt area strongly depend on weather conditions and climate variability.</p><p>The first objective of this work was to analyse Fire Weather Indexes (FWI) in the Iberian Peninsula for the present-day conditions and future climate scenarios, using reanalysis data from ERA-Interim (for 1980-2014) and an ensemble of 11 models from EURO-CORDEX, with high spatial (12 km) and daily resolution. FWI were computed for historical (1976 – 2005) and three future periods (2011-2040, 2041 – 2070 and 2071-2100), using maximum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed data simulated for two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The second objective was to use the Iberian Pyro-Regions and an analysis of the Number of Extreme Days (NED), using previously published methods, to apply on the future scenarios and assess the intra-annual pattern of NED; and, subsequently, to assess if the pyro-regions will change in a future climate, by taking into account the link between monthly burnt area and extreme days found in previous work.</p><p>The results anticipate a progressive growth of the SW pyro-region throughout the NW pyro-region, and a shift of the present-day NW pyro-region to most of the provinces occupying the N pyro-region, with exception of those north of the Cantabrian Mountains, in effect moving the present-day pattern northwards. This is driven by the large increase of the NED in summer months and eventually a decrease in March and April. Projections alto point to FWI values increasing considerably when comparing the historical and the future scenarios, especially in late spring and early autumn. These results anticipate a higher fire weather risk in the future, with a larger and stronger fire season.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>References:</p><p> </p><p>Calheiros, T., Pereira, M. G and Nunes, J. P. (2020, in press) ‘Recent evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of burnt areas and fire weather risk in the Iberian Peninsula’, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.</p><p> </p>

Simplified Flight Planning

1951 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 248-259
Author(s):  
W. G. Hamer
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Method ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Direct Approach ◽  
Flight Planning ◽  
Flight Plan ◽  
Fuel Loads ◽  
The Future ◽  
The One

The basic procedures used by most airlines to compile their flight plans are very similar, and are by no means as simple as they could be. When a choice of routes exists it is the normal practice to compile a series of flight plans from which the one giving the most advantageous route in the prevailing weather conditions is selected. In the absence of a direct approach to the problem of selecting the best route, the method of comparing different flight plans is improved by increasing the number of plans; it is therefore desirable that a method of speeding up the process of compilation should be evolved so that a greater number of plans can be prepared. Also the increased aircraft speeds which are to be expected in the future, and the requirement to reduce fuel loads, especially fuel reserves, to a minimum call for some rapid method of modifying the flight plan on receipt of in-flight forecasts and observations.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on Wildfires in Central Asia

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 802 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuezheng Zong ◽  
Xiaorui Tian ◽  
Yunhe Yin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Mountain Forest ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Wildfire Management ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

This study analyzed fire weather and fire regimes in Central Asia from 2001–2015 and projected the impacts of climate change on fire weather in the 2030s (2021–2050) and 2080s (2071–2099), which would be helpful for improving wildfire management and adapting to future climate change in the region. The study area included five countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The study area could be divided into four subregions based on vegetation type: shrub (R1), grassland (R2), mountain forest (R3), and rare vegetation area (R4). We used the modified Nesterov index (MNI) to indicate the fire weather of the region. The fire season for each vegetation zone was determined with the daily MNI and burned areas. We used the HadGEM2-ES global climate model with four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) to project the future weather and fire weather of Central Asia. The results showed that the fire season for shrub areas (R1) was from 1 April to 30 November, for grassland (R2) was from 1 March to 30 November, and for mountain forest (R3) was from 1 April to 30 October. The daily burned areas of R1 and R2 mainly occurred in the period from June–August, while that of R3 mainly occurred in the April–June and August–October periods. Compared with the baseline (1971–2000), the mean daily maximum temperature and precipitation, in the fire seasons of study area, will increase by 14%–23% and 7%–15% in the 2030s, and 21%–37% and 11%–21% in the 2080s, respectively. The mean MNI will increase by 33%–68% in the 2030s and 63%–146% in the 2080s. The potential burned areas of will increase by 2%–8% in the 2030s and 3%–13% in the 2080s. Wildfire management needs to improve to adapt to increasing fire danger in the future.

scholarly journals Fire behaviour in south-western Australian shrublands: evaluating the influence of fuel age and fire weather

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph B. Fontaine ◽  
Vanessa C. Westcott ◽  
Neal J. Enright ◽  
Janneke C. Lade ◽  
Ben P. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Threshold Effect ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Rate Of Spread

Fuel age (time since last fire) is often used to approximate fire hazard and informs decisions on placement of shrubland management burns worldwide. However, uncertainty remains concerning the relative importance of fuel age and weather conditions as predictors of fire hazard and behaviour. Using data from 35 experimental burns across three types of shrublands in Western Australia, we evaluated importance of fuel age and fire weather on probability of fire propagation (hazard) and four metrics of fire behaviour (rate of spread, fireline intensity, residence time, surface temperature) under moderate to high fire danger weather conditions. We found significant support for a threshold effect of fuel age for fire propagation but limited evidence for an effect of fuel age or fire weather on rates of spread or fireline intensity, although surface heating and heating duration were significantly related to fuel age and shrubland type. Further analysis suggested that dead fuel mass and accumulation rate rather than live fuels were responsible for this relationship. Using BEHAVE, predicted spread rates and intensities were consistently lower than observed values, suggesting further refinement is needed in modelling shrubland fire behaviour. These data provide important insight into fire behaviour in globally significant, fire-adapted shrublands, informing fire management and relationships between fire frequency and fire intensity.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document