scholarly journals Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1434
Author(s):  
Juan García-Duro ◽  
Albert Ciceu ◽  
Serban Chivulescu ◽  
Ovidiu Badea ◽  
Mihai A. Tanase ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
Altitudinal Gradient ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Temperate Forests ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Forest Types ◽  
Forest Species ◽  
Forest Species Composition

The structure and functioning of temperate forests are shifting due to changes in climate. Foreseeing the trajectory of such changes is critical to implementing adequate management practices and defining long-term strategies. This study investigated future shifts in temperate forest species composition and abundance expected to occur due to climate change. It also identified the ecological mechanisms underpinning such changes. Using an altitudinal gradient in the Romanian Carpathian temperate forests encompassing several vegetation types, we explored forest change using the Landis-II landscape model coupled with the PnET ecophysiological process model. We specifically assessed the change in biomass, forest production, species composition and natural disturbance impacts under three climate change scenarios, namely, RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The results show that, over the short term (15 years), biomass across all forest types in the altitudinal gradient will increase, and species composition will remain unaltered. In contrast, over the medium and long terms (after 2040), changes in species composition will accelerate, with some species spreading (e.g., Abies alba Mill.) and others declining (e.g., Fagus sylvatica L.), particularly under the most extreme climate change scenario. Some forest types (e.g., Picea abies (L.) karst forests) in the Southern Carpathians will notably increase their standing biomass due to climate change, compared to other types, such as Quercus forests. Our findings suggest that climate change will alter the forest composition and species abundance, with some forests being particularly vulnerable to climate change, e.g., F. sylvatica forests. As far as productivity and forest composition changes are concerned, management practices should accommodate the new conditions in order to mitigate climate change impacts.

scholarly journals Estrés por sequía en Lupinus elegans procedentes de diferentes altitudes

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
José Carmen Soto-Correa ◽  
Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero ◽  
Horacio Horacio ◽  
Roberto Lindig-Cisneros
Keyword(s):  
Altitudinal Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Common Garden ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nurse Plant ◽  
Forest Species ◽  
Altitudinal Gradients ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Distribución Geográfica

The response of plants to altitudinal gradients depends on several factors and might differ among life strategies. Understanding these responses is highly relevant for management of forest species, particularly under climate change scenarios. We explored the response to drought of different provenances of Lupinus elegans, obtained from an altitudinal gradient. This species is a shrub that acts as a nurse plant in temperate forests in its geographical range. Seeds were collected from five natural provenances across an altitudinal gradient (2312 m to 2885 m a.s.l.). A common-garden experiment was conducted with four drought treatments (irrigation at every 3, 7, 15 and 21 days) in a shade-house located at 1972 m a.s.l. All provenances presented reduced heights and numbers of leaves with increased drought intensity, regardless of site of origin. Survival among provenances presented an altitudinal pattern, where those belonging to higher sites exhibited greater survival. Provenances from lower altitudes, coming from drier and warmer sites, exhibited poorer survival against drought stress. Overall, our results indicate that there are differences among provenances, but since this species is a short lived perennial (five years on average), it is more sensitive to microclimate than to conditions determined for large scale patterns such as altitudinal gradients. This should be considered for management practices such as ecological restoration.Estrés por sequía en Lupinus elegans procedentes de diferentes altitudesLa respuesta de las plantas a los gradientes altitudinales depende de varios factores y puede variar entre estrategias de vida. Entender esta respuesta es relevante para el manejo de especies forestales, en particular ante los efectos esperados del cambio climático. En este trabajo se exploró la respuesta a la sequía de diferentes procedencias de Lupinus elegans, obtenidas de un gradiente altitudinal. Esta especie es un arbusto que actúa como planta nodriza en bosques templados a lo largo de su área de distribución geográfica. Se colectaron semillas de cinco procedencias a los largo de un gradiente altitudinal (2312 m a 2885 m snm). Se llevó a cabo un experimento de jardín común con cuatro tratamientos de sequía (riego cada 3, 7, 15 y 21 días) en una casa de sombra localizada a 1972 m snm. Las plantas de todas las procedencias mostraron un menor tamaño y número de hojas conforme aumentó el grado de sequía, independientemente de la procedencia. La supervivencia entre las procedencias mostró una relación con el gradiente altitudinal de origen, pues aquellas procedentes de sitios a mayor altitud mostraron mayor supervivencia. Las procedencias de altitudes menores, que en principio son de lugares más secos y cálidos, mostraron baja supervivencia en respuesta a la sequía. Los resultados indican que hay una diferenciación entre procedencias, pero que siendo esta especie perenne de vida corta (5 años), es más sensible a las condiciones microclimáticas que a las condiciones determinadas por patrones a escalas mayores como son los gradientes altitudinales. Esto debe de ser considerado para prácticas de manejo como la restauración ecológica.

Assessing the impact of climate change on crop management in winter wheat – a case study for Eastern Austria

2016 ◽  
Vol 154 (7) ◽  
pp. 1153-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. EBRAHIMI ◽  
A. M. MANSCHADI ◽  
R. W. NEUGSCHWANDTNER ◽  
J EITZINGER ◽  
S. THALER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Management ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Eastern Austria ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYClimate change is expected to affect optimum agricultural management practices for autumn-sown wheat, especially those related to sowing date and nitrogen (N) fertilization. To assess the direction and quantity of these changes for an important production region in eastern Austria, the agricultural production systems simulator was parameterized, evaluated and subsequently used to predict yield production and grain protein content under current and future conditions. Besides a baseline climate (BL, 1981–2010), climate change scenarios for the period 2035–65 were derived from three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), namely CGMR, IPCM4 and MPEH5, with two emission scenarios, A1B and B1. Crop management scenarios included a combination of three sowing dates (20 September, 20 October, 20 November) with four N fertilizer application rates (60, 120, 160, 200 kg/ha). Each management scenario was run for 100 years of stochastically generated daily weather data. The model satisfactorily simulated productivity as well as water and N use of autumn- and spring-sown wheat crops grown under different N supply levels in the 2010/11 and 2011/12 experimental seasons. Simulated wheat yields under climate change scenarios varied substantially among the three GCMs. While wheat yields for the CGMR model increased slightly above the BL scenario, under IPCM4 projections they were reduced by 29 and 32% with low or high emissions, respectively. Wheat protein appears to increase with highest increments in the climate scenarios causing the largest reductions in grain yield (IPCM4 and MPEH-A1B). Under future climatic conditions, maximum wheat yields were predicted for early sowing (September 20) with 160 kg N/ha applied at earlier dates than the current practice.

scholarly journals Groundwater Nitrate Contamination Integrated Modeling for Climate and Water Resources Scenarios: The Case of Lake Karla Over-Exploited Aquifer

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantelis Sidiropoulos ◽  
Georgios Tziatzios ◽  
Lampros Vasiliades ◽  
Nikitas Mylopoulos ◽  
Athanasios Loukas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Modeling Tools

Groundwater quantity and quality degradation by agricultural practices is recorded as one of the most critical issues worldwide. This is explained by the fact that groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, since it is a source of natural enrichment for rivers, lakes, and wetlands and constitutes the main source of potable water. The need of aquifers simulation, taking into account water resources components at watershed level, is imperative for the choice of appropriate restoration management practices. An integrated water resources modeling approach, using hydrological modeling tools, is presented for assessing the nitrate fate and transport on an over-exploited aquifer with intensive and extensive agricultural activity under various operational strategies and future climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change affects nitrates concentration in groundwater, which is likely to be increased due to the depletion of the groundwater table and the decrease of groundwater enrichment in the future water balance. Application of operational agricultural management practices with the construction and use of water storage infrastructure tend to compensate the groundwater resources degradation due to climate change impacts.

scholarly journals An emergent disease causes directional changes in forest species composition in coastal California

Ecosphere ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (10) ◽  
pp. art86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret R. Metz ◽  
Kerri M. Frangioso ◽  
Allison C. Wickland ◽  
Ross K. Meentemeyer ◽  
David M. Rizzo
Keyword(s):  
Species Composition ◽  
Forest Species ◽  
Forest Species Composition

scholarly journals Risk Reduction and Productivity Increase Through Integrating Arachis pintoi in Cattle Production Systems in the Colombian Orinoquía

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Johanna Enciso Valencia ◽  
Álvaro Rincón Castillo ◽  
Daniel Alejandro Ruden ◽  
Stefan Burkart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Cattle Production ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Promising Alternative ◽  
Arachis Pintoi ◽  
The Impact

In many parts of the foothills of the Orinoquía region of Colombia, cattle production takes place on poorly drained soils. The region is dominated by extensive grazing systems of Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola, a grass with high adaptation potential under temporal waterlogging conditions. Inadequate management practices and low soil fertility result in degradation, however, with important negative effects on pasture productivity and the quality and provision of (soil) ecosystem services–a situation that is likely to worsen in the near future due to climate change. Against this background, AGROSAVIA (Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria) selected Arachis pintoi CIAT 22160 cv. Centauro (Centauro) as a promising alternative for the sustainable intensification of livestock production and rehabilitation of degraded areas. This study assesses dual-purpose milk production in the foothills of the Colombian Orinoquía from an economic perspective. We compare two production systems: the Centauro–Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola association (new system) and Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola as a monoculture (traditional system). We used cashflow and risk assessment models to estimate economic indicators. The projections for economic returns consider changes in forage characteristics under regional climate change scenarios RCP (2.6, 8.5). The LIFE-SIM model was used to simulate dairy production. Results show that the inclusion of Centauro has the potential to increase animal productivity and profitability under different market scenarios. The impact of climatic variables on forage production is considerable in both climate change scenarios. Both total area and potential distribution of Centauro could change, and biomass production could decline. Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola showed better persistence due to higher nitrogen levels in soil when grown in association with Centauro. The legume also provides a number of ecosystem services, such as improving soil structure and composition, and also contributes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This helps to improve the adaptation and mitigation capacity of the system.

Mapping forest areas threatened by fires and windthrows (on the example of the Ural territory)

2020 ◽  
Vol 958 (4) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
A.N. Shikhov ◽  
R.K. Abdullin ◽  
A.V. Semakina
Keyword(s):  
Species Composition ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Ural Region ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Forest Species ◽  
Predominant Species ◽  
Anthropogenic Development ◽  
Forest Species Composition ◽  
Perm Region ◽  
Main Factor

The authors discuss the methods and results of mapping the forest susceptibility to wildfires and windthrows on the example of the Ural region. We used the previously published database of fire-and wind-related forest damages in the Ural region for 2000–2016 as input data. The method of mapping is based on the analysis of the relationships of fire- and wind-damaged area with forest species composition, landscape and climatic variables, and with some indicators of anthropogenic development of the territory. The predominant forest species make the main factor determining the exposure to wildfires and windthrows. So, the calculations were performed separately for forests with various predominant species. As a result, the maps of forest susceptibility to wildfires and windthrows were created for the entire territory of the Ural, Perm region and separately for the Krasnovishersk district of the mentioned region. The obtained estimates can be used both in forestry planning and improving the monitoring of wildfires and windthrows.

scholarly journals Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1037-1055
Author(s):  
Tobias Herzfeld ◽  
Jens Heinke ◽  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Christoph Müller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Residue Management ◽  
Biophysical Model ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Warm Temperate ◽  
Soc Stocks

Abstract. Sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) on cropland has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, which in particular is needed to achieve the targets proposed in the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in atmospheric temperature to well below 2 ∘C. We analyze the historical evolution and future development of cropland SOC using the global process-based biophysical model LPJmL, which was recently extended by a detailed representation of tillage practices and residue management (version 5.0-tillage2). We find that model results for historical global estimates for SOC stocks are at the upper end of available literature, with ∼2650 Pg C of SOC stored globally in the year 2018, ∼170 Pg C of which is stored in cropland soils. In future projections, assuming no further changes in current cropland patterns and under four different management assumptions with two different climate forcings, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, results suggest that agricultural SOC stocks decline in all scenarios, as the decomposition of SOC outweighs the increase in carbon inputs into the soil from altered management practices. Different climate change scenarios, as well as assumptions on tillage management, play a minor role in explaining differences in SOC stocks. The choice of tillage practice explains between 0.2 % and 1.3 % of total cropland SOC stock change in the year 2100. Future dynamics in cropland SOC are most strongly controlled by residue management: whether residues are left on the field or harvested. We find that on current cropland, global cropland SOC stocks decline until the end of the century by only 1.0 % to 1.4 % if residue retention management systems are generally applied and by 26.7 % to 27.3 % in the case of residue harvest. For different climatic regions, increases in cropland SOC can only be found for tropical dry, warm temperate moist, and warm temperate dry regions in management systems that retain residues.

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