scholarly journals Resilience as a Moving Target: An Evaluation of Last Century Management Strategies in a Dry-Edge Maritime Pine Ecosystem

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1151
Author(s):  
Daniel Moreno-Fernández ◽  
Miguel A. Zavala ◽  
Jaime Madrigal-González ◽  
Francisco Seijo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spanish Civil War ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Forest Understory ◽  
Tree Cover ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Historical Management

Forests are intrinsically coupled to human dynamics, both temporally and spatially. This evolution is conditioned by global changes in climatic conditions (teleconnections) and distant socio-economical processes (telecoupling). The main goal of this study is to describe the teleconnections and telecoupling dynamics that have shaped structure and processes in a dry-edge—highly vulnerable to desertification—Mediterranean pine forest during the last century and to evaluate the contribution of historical management strategies to this coupled human and natural system’s (CHANS) overall resilience. For this study, we collected relevant human and natural system data from a dry edge Pinus pinaster Ait. located forest in Central Spain using a CHANS analytical framework operationalizing telecoupling and teleconnection. A key extractive economic activity in the studied forest was resin tapping, which was the main form of land use from the 1920s to the 1950s. Since the 1950s changes in the Spanish economy linked to the emergence of new resin-producing countries, such as China, led to a sharp decline in resin production. Despite additional human system transformations affecting forest governance (e.g., the Spanish Civil War, the transition to democracy, European integration, etc.) and changes in biophysical conditions linked to climate change (e.g., aridification, CO2 fertilization), the standing stocks of P. pinaster increased during the monitoring period due to sound technical and management planning bolstering overall resilience. These historical management decisions, we argue, successfully reconciled overall resilience goals (defined as the maintenance of forest function beyond and desertification avoidance) with three successive historical forest use challenges: intensive firewood collection by local communities in fragile sandy soils, extensive pastoralism in the forest understory and tradeoffs between resin tapping damaged trees, timber production and tree cover as well as the emerging risks of wildfire and climate change.

scholarly journals A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kleoniki Demertzi ◽  
Dimitris Papadimos ◽  
Vassilis Aschonitis ◽  
Dimitris Papamichail
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

scholarly journals Adaptive Capacities for Diversified Flood Risk Management Strategies: Learning from Pilot Projects

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2643
Author(s):  
Flavia Simona Cosoveanu ◽  
Jean-Marie Buijs ◽  
Marloes Bakker ◽  
Teun Terpstra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Pilot Projects ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Risk Management Strategies

Diversification of flood risk management strategies (FRMS) in response to climate change relies on the adaptive capacities of institutions. Although adaptive capacities enable flexibility and adjustment, more empirical research is needed to better grasp the role of adaptive capacities to accommodate expected climate change effects. This paper presents an analytical framework based on the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) and Triple-loop Learning. The framework is applied to evaluate the adaptive capacities that were missing, employed, and developed throughout the ‘Alblasserwaard-Vijfheerenlanden’ (The Netherlands) and the ‘Wesermarsch’ (Germany) pilot projects. Evaluations were performed using questionnaires, interviews, and focus groups. From the 22 capacities of ACW, three capacities were identified important for diversifying the current FRMS; the capacity to develop a greater variety of solutions, continuous access to information about diversified FRMS, and collaborative leadership. Hardly any capacities related to ‘learning’ and ‘governance’ were mentioned by the stakeholders. From a further reflection on the data, we inferred that the pilot projects performed single-loop learning (incremental learning: ‘are we doing what we do right?’), rather than double-loop learning (reframing: ‘are we doing the right things?’). As the development of the framework is part of ongoing research, some directions for improvement are highlighted.

Postharvest Management Strategies

2016 ◽  
pp. 1987-2011
Author(s):  
Rohanie Maharaj ◽  
Dimple Singh-Ackbarali ◽  
Clement K. Sankat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Food Supply Chains ◽  
Traditional Research ◽  
Postharvest Management ◽  
Food Value

Climate change will pose many challenges along the food value chain and will threaten not only food security but also poverty alleviation and economic growth in SIDS. Building resilient food systems for vulnerable farmers should focus not only on improving yields and on use of more suitable crops under changing climatic conditions but also on climate-smart postharvest adaptation strategies. In this chapter, strategies to raise awareness about climate change and its effects on postharvest losses are discussed. The authors recommend several actions: training of farmers to build functional adaptive capacity on the ground, increased investments in technological innovation, the continuous sharing of traditional/research-based knowledge with farmers and stakeholders in the food supply chains. Success will also depend on incentives, monitoring systems, appropriate application of approaches, tools and technologies, and involvement of farmers and policy makers. However, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to this issue.

scholarly journals Global variation in thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change

2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1789) ◽  
pp. 20141097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran Khaliq ◽  
Christian Hof ◽  
Roland Prinzinger ◽  
Katrin Böhning-Gaese ◽  
Markus Pfenninger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Physiological Data ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Climatic Variability Hypothesis

The relationships among species' physiological capacities and the geographical variation of ambient climate are of key importance to understanding the distribution of life on the Earth. Furthermore, predictions of how species will respond to climate change will profit from the explicit consideration of their physiological tolerances. The climatic variability hypothesis, which predicts that climatic tolerances are broader in more variable climates, provides an analytical framework for studying these relationships between physiology and biogeography. However, direct empirical support for the hypothesis is mostly lacking for endotherms, and few studies have tried to integrate physiological data into assessments of species' climatic vulnerability at the global scale. Here, we test the climatic variability hypothesis for endotherms, with a comprehensive dataset on thermal tolerances derived from physiological experiments, and use these data to assess the vulnerability of species to projected climate change. We find the expected relationship between thermal tolerance and ambient climatic variability in birds, but not in mammals—a contrast possibly resulting from different adaptation strategies to ambient climate via behaviour, morphology or physiology. We show that currently most of the species are experiencing ambient temperatures well within their tolerance limits and that in the future many species may be able to tolerate projected temperature increases across significant proportions of their distributions. However, our findings also underline the high vulnerability of tropical regions to changes in temperature and other threats of anthropogenic global changes. Our study demonstrates that a better understanding of the interplay among species' physiology and the geography of climate change will advance assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change.

scholarly journals Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (AmbrosiaL.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e3104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Rasmussen ◽  
Jakob Thyrring ◽  
Robert Muscarella ◽  
Finn Borchsenius
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Future Health ◽  
Baltic Countries

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosiaspp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

Postharvest Management Strategies

2014 ◽  
pp. 221-254
Author(s):  
Rohanie Maharaj ◽  
Dimple Singh-Ackbarali ◽  
Clement K. Sankat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Food Supply Chains ◽  
Traditional Research ◽  
Postharvest Management ◽  
Food Value

Climate change will pose many challenges along the food value chain and will threaten not only food security but also poverty alleviation and economic growth in SIDS. Building resilient food systems for vulnerable farmers should focus not only on improving yields and on use of more suitable crops under changing climatic conditions but also on climate-smart postharvest adaptation strategies. In this chapter, strategies to raise awareness about climate change and its effects on postharvest losses are discussed. The authors recommend several actions: training of farmers to build functional adaptive capacity on the ground, increased investments in technological innovation, the continuous sharing of traditional/research-based knowledge with farmers and stakeholders in the food supply chains. Success will also depend on incentives, monitoring systems, appropriate application of approaches, tools and technologies, and involvement of farmers and policy makers. However, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to this issue.

scholarly journals Predicting impact of climate change on habitat suitability of guava fruit fly, Bactrocera correcta (Bezzi) using MaxEnt modeling in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-30
Author(s):  
JAIPAL S. CHOUDHARY ◽  
MADHUMITA KUMARI ◽  
SANTOSH S. MALI ◽  
MAHESH K. DHAKAR ◽  
BIKASH DAS ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Guava Fruit ◽  
Bactrocera Correcta ◽  
Maxent Modeling

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling was used to predict impact of climate change on habitat suitability of guava fruit fly, Bactrocera correcta in India. It is a polyphagus pest on a wide variety of fruit crops. Future prediction of potential habitat of B.correcta was done for the year 2050 and 2070 with RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The model preformed better than random with an average test AUC value of 0.75 of 100 replicate tests run. Under the present and future climatic conditions, the model predicted high habitat suitable category for B. correcta in the areas of south-western coastal (Kerala, Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Maharashtra and Gujarat) part of India by 2050 and 2070. Presently absolute unsuitable areas of Indian sub-continent are projected to be slightly suitable for B. correcta by 2070 due to increase in temperature coupled with decrease in cold stress. The predictive modeling approach presented here provides an outline for future risk of B.correcta in India under climate change scenarios, which can be used for its better management strategies.

scholarly journals Climate change and deforestation boost post-fire grass invasion of Amazonian forests

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno L. De Faria ◽  
Arie Staal ◽  
Philip A. Martin ◽  
Prajjwal K. Panday ◽  
Andrea D. Castanho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tree Cover ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Degraded Ecosystem ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Amazonian Forests ◽  
Grass Invasion

ABSTRACTInteractions among climate change, deforestation and fires are changing the stability of the Amazon forest, and may promote transitions to degraded grassy ecosystem states. However, our ability to predict the locations in the Amazon that are most vulnerable to these transitions is limited. In this study we used a dynamic carbon model to evaluate how drought, climate change and deforestation could affect the probability of post-fire grass invasion across the Amazon, and identify where grass-fire feedbacks may promote the persistence of species-poor degraded forests with savanna-like structure. Our results suggest that, under current climatic conditions, post-fire grass invasion could affect 11% of the Amazon, with the south-eastern Amazon at highest risk of invasion. We forecast that under business as usual climate change, by the end of the century areas with a high probability of post-fire grass invasion will increase to 20% of the Amazon. In 10% of the Amazon fire return interval will be shorter than the time required for canopy recovery, implying high risk of irreversible shifts to a fire-maintained degraded ecosystem state. Although resilience in canopy regeneration is evident in areas with low fire frequency, increased fire frequency could inhibit regeneration even in forests where grass is currently excluded, and push the Amazon forests towards a tipping point causing large areas of forest to transition to low tree cover state.

Reforestation – climate change and water resource implications

2014 ◽  
Vol 90 (04) ◽  
pp. 516-524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Egginton ◽  
Fred Beall ◽  
Jim Buttle
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Species Selection ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Biofuels Policy ◽  
Forest Managers

In a forested catchment, river discharge in any season can be either decreased or augmented by forest management practices such as appropriate species selection, density management, and length of rotation. The efficacy of any such strategy in either new plantations or existing forests can be maximized by considering the distribution of the key hydrological functions in the catchment. With the growing awareness of climate change and its impacts, the adequacy of our water supply is becoming an issue of increasing societal importance. At the same time there is greater discussion about using our forests for carbon sequestration and biofuels. Policy-makers should be careful when introducing new programs that incentivize widespread reforestation. The implications of such planting programs on annual and seasonal river flows (under both current and future climatic conditions) need to be considered. Informed choices need to be made as to the objectives for which we manage our forests. In turn, this means that there is an urgent need for water managers and forest managers to work more closely together than in the past to optimally plan and develop forest and water management strategies.

Climate Change and Drought: Impact of Food Insecurity on Gender Based Vulnerability in District Tharparkar

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manzoor Hussain Memon ◽  
Naveed Aamir ◽  
Nadeem Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Work Load ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Arid Ecosystems ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
The People ◽  
Gender Based ◽  
Arid Desert

Climate change has now become a reality that has intensified the sufferings of people living in arid ecosystems. Decrease in rainfall, rise in temperature and increase in the frequency of extreme events are some of the changes observed in the semi-arid desert of district Tharparkar. For thousands of years, people of Tharparkar are coping with drought and aridity of the land by using indigenous knowledge. However, global changes in the climatic pattern and deterioration of social and economic conditions have pushed the inhabitants of this arid region into extreme vulnerable situation. This paper investigates the link between climate-induced natural disasters, particularly drought, from the perspective of changing climate patterns which have resulted in food insecurity and water scarcity. The paper analyses the rainfall pattern in the last 38 years—dividing it into two periods i.e. from 1975-1994 and 1995-2014. The findings of the paper have challenged the prevailing notions about aridity and rainfall patterns in Tharparkar district. The research found that there is an increase in average annual precipitation in the district with erratic patterns. Thus, the nature of drought in the district has changed from its historic pattern of less or no rainfall to more but erratic rainfall that is more threatening to livelihoods of the people that in turn have multiplier effect on water and food insecurity. In particularly, women are more vulnerable in the absence of social security and lack of basic necessities for their survival amidst drought. For instance, traditionally the burden of managing water resources falls on women, which leads to an increased work load during the time of drought and also water scarcity. JEL Classification: Q54, Q56, Q25, I30 Keywords: Climate, Environment and Development, Drought, Water, Poverty

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