scholarly journals Past and Future of Temperate Forests State under Climate Change Effects in the Romanian Southern Carpathians

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 885
Author(s):  
Serban Chivulescu ◽  
Juan García-Duro ◽  
Diana Pitar ◽  
Ștefan Leca ◽  
Ovidiu Badea
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Forest Change ◽  
Mixed Forests ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Growth Change ◽  
Different Response

Research Highlights: Carpathian forests hold high ecological and economic value while generating conservation concerns, with some of these forests being among the few remaining temperate virgin forests in Europe. Carpathian forests partially lost their original integrity due to their management. Climate change has also gradually contributed to forest changes due to its modification of the environmental conditions. Background and Objectives: Understanding trees’ responses to past climates and forms of management is critical in foreseeing the responses of forests to future conditions. This study aims (1) to determine the sensitivity of Carpathian forests to past climates using dendrochronological records and (2) to describe the effects that climate change and management will have on the attributes of Carpathian forests, with a particular focus on the different response of pure and mixed forests. Materials and Methods: To this end, we first analysed the past climate-induced growth change in a dendrochronological reference series generated for virgin forests in the Romanian Curvature Carpathians and then used the obtained information to calibrate spatially explicit forest Landis-II models for the same region. The model was used to project forest change under four climate change scenarios, from mild to extreme. Results: The dendrochronological analysis revealed a climate-driven increase in forest growth over time. Landis-II model simulations also indicate that the amount of aboveground forest biomass will tend to increase with climate change. Conclusions: There are differences in the response of pure and mixed forests. Therefore, suitable forest management is required when forests change with the climate.

Mitigating climate change effects on forest growth using planting stock with high adaptive genetic capacity: results from Abies alba (Mill.) provenance trials at the southeastern distribution limit

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgeta Mihai ◽  
Alin-Madalin Alexandru ◽  
Marius-Victor Birsan ◽  
Ionel Mirancea ◽  
Paula Garbacea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Planting Stock ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Romanian Carpathians

<p>European silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) is among the most important forestry species in Europe. In Romanian Carpathians, it covers about 5% of the forests area and almost two-thirds of its distribution is located in Eastern Carpathians, which is the southeastern edge of its distribution in Europe.<br>The most recent climate change scenarios for Europe suggest increases in mean annual temperature of 1-4 °C by the end of this century (Meinshausen et al. 2011). In the context of global warming, the populations living at the edge of the species distribution will be the first facing the climate change effects. In these regions, as the southeastern Europe, the main constrains are increasing the temperature, extended drought events and water availability. Forest species are particularly sensitive to climate change because the long life-span of trees does not allow for rapid adaptation to environmental changes (Lindner et al. 2010). <br>In this context, the aim of this study was to analyze the drought response of 51 European silver fir populations from: Romanian Carpathians (26), Austria (4), Germany (3), France (3), Italy (4), Slovakia (3), Czech Republic (3), Poland (1) and Bulgaria (4)  to strong drought events which have occurred in this region, in the last 30 years. The populations are tested in three provenances trials established in Romania, in 1980; two of them being located outside and one within the optimum climatic of species. The most drought years, with severe or extreme drought periods, have been identified based on the standardized precipitation index (McKee et al. 1993). The growth response of the silver fir populations to the drought events was evaluated by calculating four parameters, namely: resistance, recovery, resilience, relative resilience (Lloret et al. 2011). Results reveled that the general trend was towards decrease the stem radial growth of silver fir during the last 30 years. The provenance x year interaction was not significant which means high provenances stability over time. Significant differences were found among silver fir provenances in terms of ring width, latewood proportion, resistance, recovery and resilience in drought years. There are provenances which have highlighted high productivity and high tolerance to drought, which could be used in reforestation work, breeding and conservation programs. The radial growth of silver fir provenances was negative affected by the temperature increase during vegetation period and positive by previous autumn-spring precipitations. Therefore, the forest management strategy to mitigate negative impacts of climate change should be based on the knowledge of the intraspecific genetic variation and selection of the best performing and adapted planting stock for each region.</p>

scholarly journals Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gintautas Mozgeris ◽  
Vilis Brukas ◽  
Nerijus Pivoriūnas ◽  
Gintautas Činga ◽  
Ekaterina Makrickienė ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Effects

Research Highlights: Validating modelling approach which combines global framework conditions in the form of climate and policy scenarios with the use of forest decision support system to assess climate change impacts on the sustainability of forest management. Background and Objectives: Forests and forestry have been confirmed to be sensitive to climate. On the other hand, human efforts to mitigate climate change influence forests and forest management. To facilitate the evaluation of future sustainability of forest management, decision support systems are applied. Our aims are to: (1) Adopt and validate decision support tool to incorporate climate change and its mitigation impacts on forest growth, global timber demands and prices for simulating future trends of forest ecosystem services in Lithuania, (2) determine the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change effects on Lithuanian forests and forest management in the future, supposing that current forestry practices are continued. Materials and Methods: Upgraded version of Lithuanian forestry simulator Kupolis was used to model the development of all forests in the country until 2120 under management conditions of three climate change scenarios. Selected stand-level forest and forest management characteristics were aggregated to the level of regional branches of the State Forest Enterprise and analyzed for the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change effects. Results: Increased forest growth under a warmer future climate resulted in larger tree dimensions, volumes of growing stock, naturally dying trees, harvested assortments, and also higher profits from forestry activities. Negative impacts were detected for the share of broadleaved tree species in the standing volume and the tree species diversity. Climate change effects resulted in spatially clustered patterns—increasing stand productivity, and amounts of harvested timber were concentrated in the regions with dominating coniferous species, while the same areas were exposed to negative dynamics of biodiversity-related forest attributes. Current forest characteristics explained 70% or more of the variance of climate change effects on key forest and forest management attributes. Conclusions: Using forest decision support systems, climate change scenarios and considering the balance of delivered ecosystem services is suggested as a methodological framework for validating forest management alternatives aiming for more adaptiveness in Lithuanian forestry.

scholarly journals Climate change effects on the hydrology of the headwaters of the Tagus River: implications for the management of the Tagus–Segura transfer

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 6473-6491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Pellicer-Martínez ◽  
José Miguel Martínez-Paz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Resource Exploitation ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Tagus River

Abstract. Currently, climate change is a major concern around the world, especially because of the uncertainty associated with its possible consequences for society. Among them, fluvial alterations can be highlighted in basins whose flows depend on groundwater discharges and snowmelt. This is the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River basin, whose water resources, besides being essential for water uses within this basin, are susceptible to being transferred to the Segura River basin (both basins are in the Iberian Peninsula). This work studies the possible effects that the latest climate change scenarios may have on this transfer, one of the most important ones in southern Europe. In the first place, the possible alterations of the water cycle of the donor basin were estimated. To do this, a hydrological model was calibrated. Then, with this model, three climatic scenarios were simulated, one without climate change and two projections under climate change (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5)). The results of these three hydrological modelling scenarios were used to determine the possible flows that could be transferred from the Tagus River basin to the Segura River basin, by simulating the water resource exploitation system of the Tagus headwaters. The calibrated hydrological model predicts, for the simulated climate change scenarios, important reductions in the snowfalls and snow covers, the recharge of aquifers, and the available water resources. So, the headwaters of the Tagus River basin would lose part of its natural capacity for regulation. These changes in the water cycle for the climate change scenarios used would imply a reduction of around 70 %–79 % in the possible flows that could be transferred to the Segura basin, with respect to a scenario without climate change. The loss of water resources for the Segura River basin would mean, if no alternative measures were taken, an economic loss of EUR 380–425 million per year, due principally to decreased agricultural production.

Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation under the Climate Change Scenarios

2016 ◽  
pp. 465-491
Author(s):  
Umut Okkan ◽  
Gul Inan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Relevance Vector Machine ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

This study aims to discuss the potentials of machine learning methods such as artificial neural network (ANN), least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), and relevance vector machine (RVM) in downscaling of simulations of a general circulation model (GCM) for monthly temperature and precipitation of the Demirkopru Dam located in the Aegean region of Turkey. The predictors are obtained from ERA-Interim re-analysis data. The best performed downscaling model is integrated into European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) with A2 future scenario. The results are then discussed to assess the probable climate change effects on temperature and precipitation.

Climate change effects on forest floor interception in woody Cerrado ecosystem

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Livia Rosalem ◽  
Miriam Gerrits-Coenders ◽  
Jamil A. A. Anache ◽  
Julian S. Sone ◽  
Dimaghi Schwamback ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Floor ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Fluxes ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Water Partitioning ◽  
Evaporative Flux

<p>The interception process is an important redistributor of water fluxes, which can considerably affect terrestrial evaporation. Not only the canopy intercepts water, but also from the forest floor significant amounts of water vapor return to the atmosphere. Remaining forests are important areas to evaluate the possible effects of climate change on the water partitioning process. Despite the hydrologic and ecosystem services offered by Cerrado forests, the interception process, as well as climate change threats on the evaporative flux of such forests, are still unknown. This study attempts to anticipate the possible impacts on the forest floor interception process in Cerrado stricto sensu considering future scenarios of climate change. To accomplish this, we used data of field monitoring from June 2017 to February 2020 in an undisturbed Cerrado s.s. forest in São Paulo State, Brazil. We calibrated and validated an improved version of the Rutter interception model (Rutter et al., 1971), which includes interception from the forest floor. Projected climate change scenarios were obtained from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE, Brazil) from 2006 to 2099 with 5km spatial resolution generated by Eta-HadGEM2-ES regional climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. The results indicate increased rainfall and decreased potential evaporation in the decade 2041-2060. By the Rutter model, the total interception increased for this period (2041-2060) associated with decreased forest floor evaporation. During the first (2006-2020) and the last (2081-2099) decades, the predictions suggest an increase of 2.4% on the average annual percentage of forest floor evaporation, also an increase of minimum annual interception percentages (from 17.1% to 18.7%). Thus, our results demonstrate the relevance of forest floor to the interception process and suggest that it can be even more relevant in the future due to the climate changes.</p>

A Study of the Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on the Plant Hardiness Zones of Albania

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 615-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zydi Teqja ◽  
Albert Kopali ◽  
Zamir Libohova ◽  
Phillip R. Owens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
New Species ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Plant Hardiness ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractMaps of plant hardiness zones are useful tools for determining the extreme limits for the survival of plants. Exploration of projected climate change effects on hardiness zones can help identify areas most affected by climate change. Such studies are important in areas with high risks related to climate change, such as the Mediterranean Sea region. The objectives of this study were to (i) map plant hardiness zones for Albania and (ii) assess the projected effects of climate scenarios on the distribution of hardiness zones. Hardiness zones were affected by IPCC AR5 climate scenarios. The most extreme hardiness zone (6a) disappeared while a new, warmer zone (10b) appeared, reflecting rising temperature trends during the cold season. The shifts in spatial distribution of hardiness zones may represent opportunities for introducing new species to Albanian agriculture and forestry; however, the introduction of new species would require further studies on the variability of plant hardiness zones at local scales.

Managing burned landscapes: evaluating future management strategies for resilient forests under a warming climate

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 915 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. L. Shive ◽  
P. Z. Fulé ◽  
C. H. Sieg ◽  
B. A. Strom ◽  
M. E. Hunter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Ponderosa Pine Forests ◽  
And Shifts

Climate change effects on forested ecosystems worldwide include increases in drought-related mortality, changes to disturbance regimes and shifts in species distributions. Such climate-induced changes will alter the outcomes of current management strategies, complicating the selection of appropriate strategies to promote forest resilience. We modelled forest growth in ponderosa pine forests that burned in Arizona’s 2002 Rodeo–Chediski Fire using the Forest Vegetation Simulator Climate Extension, where initial stand structures were defined by pre-fire treatment and fire severity. Under extreme climate change, existing forests persisted for several decades, but shifted towards pinyon–juniper woodlands by 2104. Under milder scenarios, pine persisted with reduced growth. Prescribed burning at 10- and 20-year intervals resulted in basal areas within the historical range of variability (HRV) in low-severity sites that were initially dominated by smaller diameter trees; but in sites initially dominated by larger trees, the range was consistently exceeded. For high-severity sites, prescribed fire was too frequent to reach the HRV’s minimum basal area. Alternatively, for all stands under milder scenarios, uneven-aged management resulted in basal areas within the HRV because of its inherent flexibility to manipulate forest structures. These results emphasise the importance of flexible approaches to management in a changing climate.

scholarly journals Assessment of Carbon Stock in Forest Biomass and Emission Reduction Potential in Malaysia

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1294
Author(s):  
Asif Raihan ◽  
Rawshan Ara Begum ◽  
Mohd Nizam Mohd Said ◽  
Joy Jacqueline Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Carbon Stock ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Forest Carbon ◽  
Change Mitigation

Malaysia has a large extent of forest cover that plays a crucial role in storing biomass carbon and enhancing carbon sink (carbon sequestration) and reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions, which helps to reduce the negative impacts of global climate change. This article estimates the economic value of forest carbon stock and carbon value per hectare of forested area based on the price of removing per ton CO2eq in USD from 1990 to 2050. The economic value of biomass carbon stored in the forests is estimated at nearly USD 51 billion in 2020 and approximately USD 41 billion in 2050, whereas carbon value per hectare forest area is estimated at USD 2885 in 2020 and USD 2388 in 2050. If the BAU scenario of forest loss (converting forests to other land use) continues, the projected estimation of carbon stock and its economic value might fall until 2050 unless further initiatives on proper planning of forest management and ambitious policy implementation are taken. Instead, Malaysia’s CO2 emission growth started to fall after 2010 due to rising forest carbon sink of 282 million tons between 2011 and 2016, indicating a huge potential of Malaysian forests for future climate change mitigation. The estimated and projected value of carbon stock in Malaysian forest biomass, annual growth of forest carbon, forest carbon density and carbon sink would be useful for the better understanding of enhancing carbon sink by avoiding deforestation, sustainable forest management, forest conservation and protection, accurate reporting of national carbon inventories and policy-making decisions. The findings of this study could also be useful in meeting emission reduction targets and policy implementation related to climate change mitigation in Malaysia.

scholarly journals Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Forests: A Literature Review

2021 ◽  
pp. 453-476
Author(s):  
Giorgia Bottaro ◽  
Paola Gatto ◽  
Davide Pettenella
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Economic Valuation ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Mountain Forest ◽  
Mountain Forests ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Change Effects

AbstractThe effects of climate change are increasingly more visible on natural ecosystems. Being mountain forest ecosystems among the most vulnerable and the most affected, they appear to be, at the same time, the most suitable for the assessment of climate change effects on ecosystem services. Assuming this, we review the literature on the economic assessment of climate change impacts on European mountain forests. Initially, the trends in the provision of mountain forest ecosystem services are discussed. We, then, considered the effects on forest structure and tree physiology, these two being strictly associated with the capability of the ecosystem to provide ecosystem services. The results have been grouped into a table that displays the trend, the quality and the quantity of the information found. Subsequently, the main methods that can be employed to assess the economic value of the different ecosystem services have been described. For each method, some implementation examples have been introduced to better understand its functioning. Concluding, the main gaps still existing in literature concerning the effects of climate change on ecosystem services provided by mountain forests have been highlighted. Finally, some more considerations about the existing methods for the economic valuation of ecosystem services have been done.

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