scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (Valsa mali) in China under Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1126
Author(s):  
Wei Xu ◽  
Hongyun Sun ◽  
Jingwei Jin ◽  
Jimin Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Soil Factors ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Topographic Factors ◽  
Valsa Canker ◽  
Valsa Mali

Apple valsa canker (AVC), caused by Valsa mali, is a serious wood disease of apple trees. The pathogen decays the barks and branches of trees and ruins entire orchards under severe conditions. However, studies have rarely focused on the suitable habitat of the pathogen, especially on a relatively large scale. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt 3.4.1, Princeton, NJ, USA) to predict the distribution of V. mali using climate factors, topographic factors, and soil factors under current and future climate scenarios. We measured the area of suitable habitat, change ratio of the suitable habitat area, increase and decrease maps under climate change, direction and distance of range shifts from the present to the end of the 21st century, and the contribution of environmental variables. The results showed that the area of suitable habitat is currently 183.46 × 104 km2 in China, among which 27.54% is moderately suitable habitat (MSH) and 13.13% is highly suitable habitat (HSH). Compared with current distribution, the area of MSH and HSH increases in future and the change ratio are positive. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3–70 is considered the optimum climate scenario for V. mali. The suitability of V. mali increased mainly in Northwest, North, and Northeast China. V. mali will shift to the northwest with climate change. The shift distance optimistically increased from the SSP1–26 to the SSP5–85, with the biggest shift distance of 758.44 km in the 2090s under the SSP5–85 scenario. Minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) was the most critical climate factor affecting the distribution of the pathogen, and topographic factors played a more important role than soil factors. This study demonstrates that the potential distribution of V. mali is vitally affected by climate change and provides a method for large–scale research on the distribution of pathogens.

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11253
Author(s):  
Zhen Cao ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Xinxin Zhang ◽  
Zengjun Guo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Maxent Model

Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1491
Author(s):  
Xuhui Zhang ◽  
Haiyan Wei ◽  
Zefang Zhao ◽  
Jing Liu ◽  
Quanzhong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
Forest Models ◽  
Random Forest Models

The potential distribution of the invasive plant Anredera cordifolia (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of A. cordifolia. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 °C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 °C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 °C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 °C), temperature annual range (10.7 °C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 °C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 °C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 °C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 °C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 °C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of A. cordifolia will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of A. cordifolia.

scholarly journals The Potential Global Distribution of the White Peach Scale Pseudaulacaspis pentagona (Targioni Tozzetti) under Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 192
Author(s):  
Yunyun Lu ◽  
Qing Zhao ◽  
Lifang Cheng ◽  
Ling Zhao ◽  
Hufang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Map ◽  
Water Transportation ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Pseudaulacaspis Pentagona ◽  
White Peach Scale ◽  
Suitable Area

The white peach scale Pseudaulacaspis pentagona (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) is a pest that causes significant damage to more than 221 genera of host plants in more than 112 countries. P. pentagona primarily feeds on mulberry, peach, and tea, and this leads to the loosening of the epidermis of trees, which damages nutrient and water transportation in the branches, leading to branch death. P. pentagona is native to China and Japan, and has become an invasive species all over the world. However, the potential distribution of P. pentagona remains unclear. In this study, a potential distribution map of P. pentagona was developed using current and future climate information using MaxEnt. The model indicates that Asia, Europe, South America and North America are a highly suitable habitat range for this species. The MaxEnt models for the potential distribution of P. pentagona for the 2050s and 2070s suggest that in the case of no significant increase or even decrease in the highly suitable area, the suitable area increased significantly on any future climatic scenarios. The predicted area gain in the suitable habitat is 2.82 × 107 km2, including more of Asia, such as China, Japan, and Mongolia, and also including India, Vietnam, Romania, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Austria, The Czech Republic, Italy, and Germany in Europe, which shows an increase of 24.5% over the current habitat on RCP8.5 emission scenarios for the 2070s. With the warming of the climate, significant expansions are predicted in the suitable area, especially in Europe and East Asia. Under RCP8.5 for the 2050s, the model-predicted that the area of suitable habitat in China and the Korean Peninsula gains an increase of 18.8% over the current suitable habitat area. Under other climate scenarios, RCP8.5-2070s, the suitable areas were the largest, compared to projection for the current climate scenario (ca. 24.1% increase) which increased to 7.89 × 106 km2. In Europe, under RCP8.5 for the 2070s, the highly suitable areas were the largest, compared to the projection for the current climate scenario (ca. 46.2% increase), which increased to 8.64 × 105 km2, the area of suitable habitat suitability increased to 4.99 × 106 km2 (29.2% increase of the current condition). Potential increases or decreases in distribution ranges were modeled under future climatic scenarios. This study suggests that the most important factor that influenced current distribution of this pest was temperature, and BIO3 (isothermality) was the most important factor that contributed to 48.6% of the potential distribution map. Given the rapid spread of P. pentagona and the serious risk this species poses to local ecosystems, warning modelling and practical strategies to prevent the establishment and expansion of this species should be sought. This distribution map will help governments to identify areas that are suitable for current and future infestations, and to optimize pest management strategies.

Effects on hydrodynamics and ecological costs of climate change and tidal stream energy extraction in a shelf sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michela De Dominicis ◽  
Judith Wolf ◽  
Dina Sadykova ◽  
Beth Scott ◽  
Alexander Sadykov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Tidal Energy ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Energy Extraction ◽  
Shelf Sea ◽  
Tidal Stream

<p>The aim of this work is to analyse the potential impacts of tidal energy extraction on the marine environment. We wanted to put them in the broader context of the possibly greater and global ecological threat of climate change. Here, we present how very large (hypothetical) tidal stream arrays and a ''business as usual'' future climate scenario can change the hydrodynamics of a seasonally stratified shelf sea, and consequently modify ecosystem habitats and animals’ behaviour.</p><p>The Scottish Shelf Model, an unstructured grid three-dimensional ocean model, has been used to reproduce the present and the future state of the NW European continental shelf. While the marine biogeochemical model ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model) has been used to describe the corresponding biogeochemical conditions. Four scenarios have been modelled: present conditions and projected future climate in 2050, each with and without very large scale tidal stream arrays in Scottish Waters (UK). This allows us to evaluate the potential effect of climate change and large scale energy extraction on the hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry. We found that climate change and tidal energy extraction both act in the same direction, in terms of increasing stratification due to warming and reduced mixing, however, the effect of climate change is ten times larger. Additionally, the ecological costs and benefits of these contrasting pressures on mobile predator and prey marine species are evaluated using ecological statistical models.</p>

scholarly journals Habitat Suitability Study of Hylomecon Japonica Based on Maxent Model in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cao Zhen ◽  
Zhang Xiaoyan ◽  
Xue Xuanji ◽  
Zhang Lei ◽  
Zhan Guanqun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Growth Area ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Background: To understand the potential distribution and habitat suitability of H. japonica in China. And to provide guidance for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. Methods: The maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the potential suitable habitat of H. japonica species, and the contribution of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. Results: The AUC value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 101 occurrence records. The potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi and other provinces (adaptability index>0.6). Jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (35.6%), precipitation of wettest quarter (13.4%), the mean annual temperature (7.8%) and the subclass of soil (7.8%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. Conclusion: The niche parameters of the most suitable growth area (adaptability index>0.8) for H. japonica were precipitation of driest month (5 mm), precipitation of wettest quarter (400-490 mm), the mean annual temperature (-2-4 °C) and the subclass of soil (Glossy Chernozem, Gleyic Lime, Haplic Gypsisols).

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins with species distribution model

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12001
Author(s):  
Jinbo Fu ◽  
Linlin Zhao ◽  
Changdong Liu ◽  
Bin Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Sousa Chinensis ◽  
The Impact

As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.

Potential Distributions of the Invasive Barnacle Scale Ceroplastes cirripediformis (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Under Climate Change and Implications for Its Management

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Duo Wang ◽  
Ge Guo ◽  
Meixia Zhang ◽  
Jiayi Lang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Insect Pest ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Mean Temperature

Abstract Ceroplastes cirripediformis Comstock is one of the most destructive invasive pests that have caused various negative impacts to agricultural, ornamental, and greenhouse plants. Since it is time- and labor-consuming to control C. cirripediformis, habitat evaluation of this pest may be the most cost-effective method for predicting its dispersal and avoiding its outbreaks. Here, we evaluated the effects of climatic variables on distribution patterns of C. cirripediformis and produced a global risk map for its outbreak under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio 9), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio 8) were the main factors influencing the current modeled distribution of C. cirripediformis, respectively, contributing 41.9, 29.4, 18.8, and 7.9%. The models predicted that, globally, potential distribution of C. cirripediformis would be across most zoogeographical regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, in the future, both the total potential distribution region and its area of highly suitable habitat are expected to expand slightly in all representative concentration pathway scenarios. The information generated from this study will contribute to better identify the impacts of climate change upon C. cirripediformis’s potential distribution while also providing a scientific basis for forecasting insect pest spread and outbreaks. Furthermore, this study serves an early warning for the regions of potential distribution, predicted as highly suitable habitats for this pest, which could promote its prevention and control.

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Distribution of Three Taxa of Akebia Decne. under Climate Change Scenarios in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1710
Author(s):  
Xiuting Wang ◽  
Wenwen Zhang ◽  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Huiqin Zhu ◽  
Limiao Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sustainable Utilization ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
The Impact

Akebia trifoliata (Thunb.) Koidz., Akebia trifoliata subsp. australis (Diels) T. Shimizu and Akebia quinata (Houtt.) Decne. are the source plants of the traditional Chinese medicines AKEBIAE CAULIS and AKEBIAE FRUCTUS, and have high pharmaceutical value. However, the resource reserve of these plants has dramatically declined due to habitat destruction, which has seriously affected their adequate supply and sustainable utilization. A poor knowledge of the potential distribution of these medicinal materials would seriously constrain the protective exploitation of wild resources and the establishment of new cultivations. In this study, based on the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, the maximum entropy model was used to predict the potential distribution of these three Akebia taxa under current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s) climate conditions. Our findings showed that the potentially suitable areas of these three Akebia taxa were mainly distributed in China at 101.8–121.9° E and 23.5–34.6° N. Temperature played a more significant role than precipitation in affecting the distribution. The dominant bioclimatic variable that affected the distribution of A. trifoliata and A. quinata in China was the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO06). For A. trifoliata subsp. australis, the mean diurnal range (BIO02) was the dominant variable influencing its distribution. Compared with current conditions, the moderate- and high-suitability areas of these three Akebia taxa were predicted to shrink towards the core areas, while the low-suitability areas were all observed to increase from the 2030s to the 2090s. With the increase in radiative forcing of SSP, the low-impact areas of these three Akebia taxa showed a decreasing trend as a whole. Our results illustrate the impact of climate change on the distribution of Akebia, and would provide references for the sustainable utilization of Akebia’s resources.

scholarly journals Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1541
Author(s):  
Tongxia Wang ◽  
Zhengyong Zhang ◽  
Lin Liu ◽  
Zhongqin Li ◽  
Puyu Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Tianshan Mountains ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Maximum Entropy Model ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
High Emission ◽  
High Emission Scenario

Under the background of global climate change, the variation in the spatial distribution and ice volume of mountain glaciers have a profound influence on regional economic development and ecological security. The development of glaciers is like biological succession; when climate change approaches or exceeds the threshold of suitable conditions for glacier development, it will lead to changes in potential distribution pattern. Therefore, from the perspective of the "biological" characteristics of glaciers, it is a beneficial exploration and attempt in the field of glaciology to explore its potential distribution law with the help of the niche model. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) can explain the environmental conditions suitable for the survival of things by analyzing the mathematical characteristics and distribution laws of samples in space. According to glacier samples and the geographical environment data screened by correlation analysis and iterative calculation, the potential distribution pattern of Tianshan glaciers in China in reference years (1970–2000) was simulated by MaxEnt. This paper describes the contribution of geographical environmental factors to distribution of glaciers in Tianshan Mountains, quantifies the threshold range of factors affecting the suitable habitat of glaciers, and predicts the area variation and distribution pattern of glaciers under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) in the future (2040–2060, 2080–2100). The results show that the MaxEnt model has good adaptability to simulate the distribution of glaciers. The spatial heterogeneity of potential distribution of glaciers is caused by the spatio-temporal differences of hydrothermal combination and topographic conditions. Among the environmental variables, precipitation during the wettest month, altitude, annual mean temperature, and temperature seasonality have more significant effects on the potential distribution of glaciers. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of glaciers in different watersheds, altitudes, and aspects. From the forecast results of glacier in various climatic scenarios in the future, about 18.16–27.62% of the total reference year glacier area are in an alternating change of melting and accumulation, among which few glaciers are increasing, but this has not changed the overall retreat trend of glaciers in the study area. Under the low emission scenario, the glacier area of the Tianshan Mountains in China decreased by 18.18% and 23.73% respectively in the middle and end of the 21st century compared with the reference years and decreased by 20.04% and 27.63%, respectively, under the high emission scenario, which showed that the extent of glacier retreat is more intense under the high emission scenario. Our study offers momentous theoretical value and practical significance for enriching and expanding the theories and analytical methods of the glacier change.

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