scholarly journals Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Pecchi ◽  
Maurizio Marchi ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Giovanni Forzieri ◽  
Marco Ammoniaci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Forest Coverage ◽  
Potential Impact

Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for human wellbeing. In a changing climate, forest management is expected to play a fundamental role by preserving the functioning of forest ecosystems and enhancing the adaptive processes. Understanding and quantifying the future forest coverage in view of climate changes is therefore crucial in order to develop appropriate forest management strategies. However, the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems remain largely unknown due to the uncertainties lying behind the future prediction of models. To fill this knowledge gap, here we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the forest coverage in Italy using species distribution modelling technique. The spatial distribution of 19 forest tree species in the country was extracted from the last national forest inventory and modelled using nine Species Distribution Models algorithms, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). The single species predictions were then compared and used to build a future forest cover map for the country. Overall, no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area was predicted with compensatory effects in forest coverage of different tree species, whose magnitude and patters appear largely modulated by the driving climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and, therefore, a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands along the Apennines chain in central Italy (e.g., Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g., Fagus, Quercus) and generally characterized by pure and even-aged planted forests, much further away from their natural structure where admixture with other tree species is more likely. In this context a sustainable forest management strategy may reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favoring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow, and supporting (spatial) migration processes.

Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Pecchi ◽  
Maurizio Marchi ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Giovanni Forzieri ◽  
Marco Ammoniaci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Mixed Stands ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract Background: Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for the human wellbeing and their ability is influenced by climate background and further connected to forest management strategies. Italy is a well-known biodiversity hotspot but an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change is still missing in this country. The aim of this paper is model the potential impact of climate change on 19 tree species occurring across the Italian forests using a species distribution modelling approach, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). Results: While no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area has been predicted with some tree species gaining space and covering the spatial contractions of others, results showed substantial differences between each species and different climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and therefore a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands (e.g. Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g. Fagus, Quercus), probably due to their artificial origin which established pure stands with tree species generally more prone to admixture with others in (semi)-natural ecosystems.Conclusions: Forest management could play a fundamental role to reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favouring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow and supporting (spatial) migration processes.

Impact of Climate Change on Faunal and Floral Diversity in Different Geographical Regions of Punjab

2015 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 303-308
Author(s):  
Vikas Kumar ◽  
R.K. Dhaliwal ◽  
Charan Singh ◽  
Manmeet Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Diversity Index ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Forest Tree Species ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Floral Diversity ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Impact

The present study was carried in different geographical regions of Punjab with the aim to evaluate the impact of climate change on the faunal and floral diversity. A multistage random sampling design was followed to select the study area. Species richness, evenness, Simpson index, Shannon-Wiener index, Index of dominance, Similarity and dissimilarity index were calculated. Comparative performance of different species in different locations was studied in term of present and past status. The number of forest tree species in Hoshiarpur, Ludhiana and Bathinda did not show any change in forest tree species and remain same without any change in bio-diversity index. The number of fruit tree species has been increased comparatively in all three localities. The number of bird’s species has been decreased comparatively in all three localities due to change in climatic condition, whereas, incremental changes were recorded in number of individuals of animals, however number of species is remained unchanged. The number of wild species has been decreased comparatively in all three localities. Ecological indices revealed that diversity index, species richness and evenness index were increased in all three localities; however, Index of Dominance was reduced.

Wald und Klimawandel in der inneralpinen Trockenregion Visp

2012 ◽  
Vol 163 (12) ◽  
pp. 481-492
Author(s):  
Andreas Rigling ◽  
Ché Elkin ◽  
Matthias Dobbertin ◽  
Britta Eilmann ◽  
Arnaud Giuggiola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Forest Ecosystem ◽  
Bark Beetles ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Forest Monitoring ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
Forest Ecosystem Services

Forest and climate change in the inner-Alpine dry region of Visp Over the past decades, observed increases in temperature have been particularly pronounced in mountain regions. If this trend should continue in the 21st Century, frequency and intensity of droughts will increase, and will pose major challenges for forest management. Under current conditions drought-related tree mortality is already an important factor of forest ecosystems in dry inner-Alpine valleys. Here we assess the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to climate change and evaluate alternative forest management strategies in the Visp region. We integrate data from forest monitoring plots, field experiments and dynamic forests models to evaluate how the forest ecosystem services timber production, protection against natural hazards, carbon storage and biodiver-sity will be impacted. Our results suggest that at dry low elevation sites the drought tolerance of native tree species will be exceeded so that in the longer term a transition to more drought-adapted species should be considered. At medium elevations, drought and insect disturbances as by bark beetles are projected to be important for forest development, while at high elevations forests are projected to expand and grow better. All of the ecosystem services that we considered are projected to be impacted by changing forest conditions, with the specific impacts often being elevation-dependent. In the medium term, forest management that aims to increase the resilience of forests to drought can help maintain forest ecosystem services temporarily. However, our results suggest that relatively rigid management interventions are required to achieve significant effects. By using a combination of environmental monitoring, field experiments and modeling, we are able to gain insight into how forest ecosystem, and the services they provide, will respond to future changes.

scholarly journals Modeling the Optimal Mitigation of Potential Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Ecosystems

Heliyon ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. e07401
Author(s):  
Sajib Mandal ◽  
Md. Sirajul Islam ◽  
Md. Haider Ali Biswas ◽  
Sonia Akter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Ecosystems ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact

The Impact of Climate Change on States

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 115-132
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kułaga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Law ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Fundamental Change ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The increase in sea levels, as a result of climate change in territorial aspect will have a potential impact on two major issues – maritime zones and land territory. The latter goes into the heart of the theory of the state in international law as it requires us to confront the problem of complete and permanent disappearance of a State territory. When studying these processes, one should take into account the fundamental lack of appropriate precedents and analogies in international law, especially in the context of the extinction of the state, which could be used for guidance in this respect. The article analyses sea level rise impact on baselines and agreed maritime boundaries (in particular taking into account fundamental change of circumstances rule). Furthermore, the issue of submergence of the entire territory of a State is discussed taking into account the presumption of statehood, past examples of extinction of states and the importance of recognition in this respect.

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