scholarly journals Tree Ring-Based Estimation of Landslide Areal Reactivation as a Fundament of Magnitude–Frequency Assessment

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 400
Author(s):  
Karel Šilhán

Magnitude–frequency (M–F) relationships represent important information on slope deformation and are used in hazard assessment or as supporting data for urban planning. Various approaches have been used to extract such relationships in the past, but most of these methods drove at the problem of exact events´ frequency determination. Dendrogeomorphic (tree ring-based) approaches are actually thought to be the most precise method of dating past mass movement events that occurred within the last several centuries. Together with information on the spatial positions of the analysed trees, they represent a potentially very valuable tool for reconstructing M–F relationships, although their use for this purpose has been very rare in the past. In this study, M–F relationships are reconstructed using dendrogeomorphic methods for three landslides of different types (a translational slide, a flow-like slide, and a rotational slide) occurring in different geological materials (thick-bedded flysch, limestone marls, and volcanic breccia). In total, 572 disturbed trees were analysed, and chronologies of mass movement events were built. Landslide magnitudes were expressed in three ways: (i) the value of the standard It index; (ii) the area, as determined using homogenous morphological units; and (iii) the area, as determined using tree buffers. The power-law nature of M–F relationships was confirmed for all the landslides that were studied and using all the approaches that were applied. All of the combinations of results yielded high correlation values; nevertheless, differences were noted. The advantages and limitations of each approach used to reconstruct M–F relationships are also discussed.

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Stoffel ◽  
M. Bollschweiler

Abstract. The understanding of geomorphic processes and knowledge of past events are important tasks for the assessment of natural hazards. Tree rings have on varied occasions proved to be a reliable tool for the acquisition of data on past events. In this review paper, we provide an overview on the use of tree rings in natural hazards research, starting with a description of the different types of disturbances by geomorphic processes and the resulting growth reactions. Thereafter, a summary is presented on the different methods commonly used for the analysis and interpretation of reactions in affected trees. We illustrate selected results from dendrogeomorphological investigations of geomorphic processes with an emphasis on fluvial (e.g., flooding, debris flows) and mass-movement processes (e.g., landslides, snow avalanche), where lots of data have been generated over the past few decades. We also present results from rockfall and permafrost studies, where data are much scarcer, albeit data from tree-ring studies have proved to be of great value in these fields as well. Most studies using tree rings have focused on alpine environments in Europe and North America, whereas other parts of the world have been widely neglected by dendrogeomorphologists so far. We therefore challenge researchers to focus on other regions with distinct climates as well, to look on less frequently studied processes as well and to broaden and improve approaches and methods commonly used in tree-ring research so as to allow a better understanding of geomorphic processes, natural hazards and risk.


2001 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
David K. Chester

Affecting an area of ca. 800 000 km2 and killing up to 100 000 people, the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 is probably the greatest seismic disaster to have struck western Europe. The shock waves of the earthquake placed a temporary brake on the emerging rationalism of the European Enlightenment and attempts to explain the disaster in terms of human sinfulness coloured many contemporary accounts. Notwithstanding these difficulties, through careful archival research it has proved possible to obtain relatively value-free accounts of most aspects of the earthquake and to use these not only to model the physical characteristics of and damage caused by the earthquake, but also to consider the implications for present day hazard assessment and urban planning. This paper reviews the progress that has been made in: identifying source and faulting mechanisms; the processes involved in the generation and impact of tsunamis; damage caused to different types of building and the use being made of historical earthquakes of different sizes - of which the 1755 event is the largest - in defining future hazard scenarios for Lisbon and other areas of Iberia.


Author(s):  
U. Aebi ◽  
P. Rew ◽  
T.-T. Sun

Various types of intermediate-sized (10-nm) filaments have been found and described in many different cell types during the past few years. Despite the differences in the chemical composition among the different types of filaments, they all yield common structural features: they are usually up to several microns long and have a diameter of 7 to 10 nm; there is evidence that they are made of several 2 to 3.5 nm wide protofilaments which are helically wound around each other; the secondary structure of the polypeptides constituting the filaments is rich in ∞-helix. However a detailed description of their structural organization is lacking to date.


Author(s):  
П. В. Капустин ◽  
А. И. Гаврилов

Состояние проблемы. Проблематика городской среды заявила о себе в 1960-е годы как протест против модернистских методов урбанизма и других видов проектирования. Средовое движение не случайно тогда именовали «антипрофессиональным» - оно было направлено против устоявшихся и недейственных методов работы с городом - от исследования до управления. За прошедшие десятилетия в рамках самого средового движения и его идейных наследников наработано немало методов и приемов работы, однако они до сих не подвергались анализу как пребывающая в исторической динамике целостная совокупность инструментария, альтернативного традиционному градостроительству. Результаты. Рассмотрены особенности и проблемы анализа методологического «арсенала» средового движения и урбанистики. Методы работы с городской средой впервые структурированы по типам знания. Показана близость методов исследовательского и проектного подходов в отношении городской среды. Выводы. В ближайшее время можно ожидать появления новых синтетических знаний и частных методологий, связанных как с обострением средовой проблематики, с расширением круга средовых акторов, так и с процессом профессионализации урбанистики. Statement of the problem. The urban environment paradigm emerged in the 1960s as a protest against the modernist methods of urbanism and other types of design. It was no coincidence that the environmental movement was back then called "anti-professional" as it was directed against the established and ineffective methods of working with the city, i. e., from research to management. Over the past decades, within the framework of the environmental movement and its ideological heirs, a lot of methods and have been developed. However, they have not yet been analyzed as an integral set of tools in the historical dynamics which is an alternative to traditional urban planning. Results. The features and problems of the analysis of the methodological “arsenal” of environmental movement and urban studies are considered. The methods of working with the urban environment are first structured according to the types of knowledge. The proximity of research and design approaches in the case when the urban environment is dealt with is shown. Conclusions. In the nearest future, we can expect new synthetic knowledge and particular methodologies related to both the exacerbation of environmental problems to emerge as well as the expansion of the circle of environmental actors and the process of professionalization of urbanstics.


Author(s):  
Gordon Moore ◽  
John A. Quelch ◽  
Emily Boudreau

Chapter 2 asks the critical question of whether healthcare is different from other consumer-driven markets. In the past, many pushed back on the notion that healthcare could be a consumer-driven industry, arguing that it is fundamentally different from other markets. This chapter acknowledges and reviews these critiques, highlighting four areas that might present challenges to increasing consumer choice in healthcare: the special relationship between doctor and patient, ethics and morality, individual choice versus collective benefit, and the health consequences of consumer choice. In doing so, this chapter also presents a schematic for thinking about the different types of healthcare choices, arguing that not all choices are equal and consumers may be more prepared to make decisions in some areas as opposed to others. In presenting the counterargument to consumer choice, this chapter asks the reader to consider the drawbacks and potential limitations of consumer choice in healthcare.


Author(s):  
Patricia Pelley

This chapter demonstrates how the process of decolonization and the ensuing separation of Vietnam into a northern and southern state as part of the Cold War in Asia led to different types of history-writing. In both Vietnamese regimes, the writing of history had to serve the state, and in both countries historians emphasized its political function. Whereas North Vietnam located itself in an East Asian and Marxist context, historians of South Vietnam positioned it within a Southeast Asian setting and took a determinedly anti-communist position. After 1986—over a decade after reunification—with past tensions now relaxed, the past could be revaluated more openly under a reformist Vietnamese government that now also permitted much greater interaction with foreign historians.


Dermatology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Yaron Har-Shai ◽  
Lior Har-Shai ◽  
Viktor A. Zouboulis ◽  
Christos C. Zouboulis

<b><i>Background:</i></b> Auricular keloids belong to the most perplexing medical conditions, which have significant psychosocial impact on the patient’s body image and quality of life. <b><i>Summary:</i></b> The article is purposed to provide dermatologists and plastic surgeons with the best proven practice using intralesional cryosurgery for the treatment of the different auricular keloid types in order to obtain superior clinical results by minimizing the probability of recurrence. In the past 20 years, the authors have developed novel procedures in order to increase the effectiveness of intralesional cryosurgery on auricular keloids, including hydrodissection, warm gauze technique, and excision of dangling skin. Long-lasting clinical results with a low recurrence rate and a satisfactory aesthetic outcome are achieved with no deformation of the ear framework.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2139
Author(s):  
Paul H. Hutton ◽  
David M. Meko ◽  
Sujoy B. Roy

This work presents updated reconstructions of watershed runoff to San Francisco Estuary from tree-ring data to AD 903, coupled with models relating runoff to freshwater flow to the estuary and salinity intrusion. We characterize pre-development freshwater flow and salinity conditions in the estuary over the past millennium and compare this characterization with contemporary conditions to better understand the magnitude and seasonality of changes over this time. This work shows that the instrumented flow record spans the range of runoff patterns over the past millennium (averaged over 5, 10, 20 and 100 years), and thus serves as a reasonable basis for planning-level evaluations of historical hydrologic conditions in the estuary. Over annual timescales we show that, although median freshwater flow to the estuary has not changed significantly, it has been more variable over the past century compared to pre-development flow conditions. We further show that the contemporary period is generally associated with greater spring salinity intrusion and lesser summer–fall salinity intrusion relative to the pre-development period. Thus, salinity intrusion in summer and fall months was a common occurrence under pre-development conditions and has been moderated in the contemporary period due to the operations of upstream reservoirs, which were designed to hold winter and spring runoff for release in summer and fall. This work also confirms a dramatic decadal-scale hydrologic shift in the watershed from very wet to very dry conditions during the late 19th and early 20th centuries; while not unprecedented, these shifts have been seen only a few times in the past millennium. This shift resulted in an increase in salinity intrusion in the first three decades of the 20th century, as documented through early records. Population growth and extensive watershed modification during this period exacerbated this underlying hydrologic shift. Putting this shift in the context of other anthropogenic drivers is important in understanding the historical response of the estuary and in setting salinity targets for estuarine restoration. By characterizing the long-term behavior of San Francisco Estuary, this work supports decision-making in the State of California related to flow and salinity management for restoration of the estuarine ecosystem.


Author(s):  
Florence Briton ◽  
Olivier Thébaud ◽  
Claire Macher ◽  
Caleb Gardner ◽  
Lorne Richard Little

Abstract Over the past decade, efforts have been made to factor technical interactions into management recommendations for mixed fisheries. Yet, the dynamics underlying joint production in mixed fisheries are generally poorly captured in operational mixed fisheries models supporting total allowable catch advice. Using an integrated ecological–economic simulation model, we explore the extent to which fishers are likely to alter the species composition of their landings in a mixed fishery managed with individual transferable quotas, the Australian Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery. Our simulations capture three different types of joint production problems, highlighting the flexibility that exists in terms of achievable catch compositions when quota markets provide the economic incentives to adapt fishing practices to quota availability. These results highlight the importance of capturing the drivers of fishing choices when advising TAC decisions in mixed fisheries. We also identify a hierarchy of species in this fishery, with harvest targets set for primary commercial species determining most of its socio-economic performance.


Rheumatology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadezhda Tsurikova ◽  
Elena Ligostaeva ◽  
Vadim Avdeenko ◽  
Nataliya Kobzeva ◽  
Irina Tsiganok ◽  
...  

Abstract Background/Aims  During the COVID-19 pandemic, analysis of the incidence of COVID-19 among patients suffering from rheumatic diseases and receiving therapy with biological agents remains relevant. Methods  This single-center observational study included 118 children suffering from various rheumatic diseases and receiving therapy with anti-rheumatic drugs and biological agents. In this research, we analyzed the incidence of CIVID-19 and the frequency of documented contact with SARS-CoV-2 in the period from 01.03.2020 to 11.10.2020 (32 weeks). The results were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results  Among 118 children, there were 28 (24%) boys and 90 (76%) girls, average age 10.3±4.2. 104 (88.2%) patients had different types of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), 2 (1.6%) children had systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 2 (1.6%) patients had juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM), 1 (1%) child had ANCA-associated vasculitis, 6 (5%) patients had familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), 2 (1.6%) children had deficiency of adenosine deaminase 2 (DADA2), 1 (1%) child had TNF receptor-associated periodic syndrome (TRAPS). In this group of patients 94 (79%) patients were treated with methotrexate, 1 (1%) - azathioprine, 3 (2%) patients received hydroxychloroquine, 6(5%) - mycophenolate mofetil, 4 (3%) - sulfasalazine, 14(11%) children received prednisone, 6(5%) - cyclosporine A. All children included in this study received biological agents for more than 1 year, the distribution of biological agents among patients was as follows: 41(34%) - etanercept, 33(28%) - adalimumab, 24 (20%) - tocilizumab, 7 (6%) - canakinumab, 3 (2%) - abatacept, 4 (3%) - golimumab, 6 (5%) - rituximab. Out of 118 children, 4 (3%) patients had flu-like symptoms and positive results of PCR tests for COVID-19 (1 patient was treated with etanercept, 1 - adalimumab, 1 - tocilizumab, 1 - rituximab), none of the patients had signs of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. 10 (8%) patients had documented contact with COVID-19: among this patients 2 children had flu-like symptoms, positive results of PCR tests and absence of COVID-19 pneumonia (one of this patient was treated with adalimumab, another one - with rituximab), one more patient was treated with tocilizumab and had positive PCR test without any symptoms of COVID-19; other 7 children had negative PCR tests and didn’t have any signs of COVID-19. Conclusion  Among our patients with various rheumatic diseases treated with biological agents there were no registered severe cases of COVID-19. Over the past period (32 weeks of follow-up) 3% of children with COVID-19 were identified and 8% patients had documented contact with COVID-19, but we suppose it is too early to make conclusions about the degree and severity of COVID-19 among children suffering from rheumatic diseases and receiving various biological agents. Further follow-up is needed to better understand the risk and impact of COVID-19 among children with rheumatic diseases and receiving therapy with biological agents. Disclosure  N. Tsurikova: None. E. Ligostaeva: None. V. Avdeenko: None. N. Kobzeva: None. I. Tsiganok: None. K. Skorobogatova: None. A. Motkina: None.


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