scholarly journals Improving Mountain Pine Beetle Survival Predictions Using Multi-Year Temperatures Across the Western USA

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bone ◽  
Nelson

Global climate change has led to an increase in large-scale bark beetle outbreaks in forests around the world, resulting in significant impacts to forest ecosystems, timber economies, and forest-dependent communities. As such, prediction models that utilize temperature for estimating future bark beetle locations and consequential tree mortality are critical for informing forest management decision-making in an attempt to mitigate and adapt to pending and current outbreaks. This is especially true for physiological models that account for the effects of overwinter temperatures on bark beetle survival, as seasonal temperatures, specifically during winter months, exert the greatest impact on bark beetle mortality during various stages of life cycle development. Yet, how temperature observations are used to predict bark beetle survival can significantly under- or over-estimate the role that temperature variability plays in annual tree mortality, especially under current climate change trajectories. This study evaluates how representations of winter temperature influence bark beetle survival estimates. Using the recent outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) across the western USA as a case study, single-year to decade-long winter temperature averages were used as inputs into a physiological beetle survival prediction model, the results of which were compared against beetle-induced tree mortality observations using temporal autoregressive models. Results show that using longer-term survival averages of seven to ten years significantly increases the likelihood that temperature alone can predict general levels of beetle survival and hence beetle-induced mortality. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the role of long-term temperature observations when forecasting bark beetle outbreaks, and that year-to-year temperature variability may be constrained in predicting beetle survival during outbreak periods.

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 811 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spruce ◽  
Hicke ◽  
Hargrove ◽  
Grulke ◽  
Meddens

Extensive bark beetle outbreaks have recently occurred in western North American forests, resulting in overstory tree mortality across millions of hectares. Annual aerial surveys are currently used to operationally monitor bark beetle induced tree mortality, though this method is subjective and can exclude some forest areas. Daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data offer a potential alternative means to develop regional tree mortality maps. Accurate methods using such data could aid natural resource managers in surveys of forests with frequent overstory mortality, helping to prioritize forest treatment and restoration activities. This paper discusses a study to test the potential of using MODIS data to detect tree mortality. We developed and tested an approach to use 250-m resolution MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data products collected during a mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak and related tree mortality event in the northern Rocky Mountains of Colorado, USA. The 94 km2 study area is predominantly lodgepole pine forest with most of the MPB-caused mortality occurring between 2003 and 2008. We used a 2.4-m forest conditions map from 2008 aerial multispectral imagery to calculate percentage of mortality within 240-m pixels for use as reference data. Using either daily or 16-day products, MODIS NDVI change products were calculated for 2008 versus either 2000 or 2003 baselines. MODIS change products were used as predictors in linear regression analysis to assess correlation between MODIS data and the aerial percent forest mortality map. Depending on the MODIS product, linear regression analyses yielded r2 values ranging from 0.362 to 0.544 without outliers removed and from 0.406 to 0.570 with extreme outliers removed. Daily MODIS NDVI products from 2003 and 2008 were used with exponential regression to improve the r2 to 0.593. The project showed some MODIS NDVI data potential for mapping percent tree mortality in forests subjected to regional bark beetle outbreaks and severe drought.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Mullen ◽  
Fei Yuan ◽  
Martin Mitchell

The recent and intense outbreak (first decade of 2000s) of the mountain pine beetle in the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming, which impacted over 33% of the 1.2 million acre (486,000 ha) Black Hills National Forest, illustrates what can occur when forest management practices intersect with natural climatic oscillations and climate change to create the “perfect storm” in a region where the physical environment sets the stage for a plethora of economic activities ranging from extractive industries to tourism. This study evaluates the potential of WorldView-2 satellite imagery for green-attacked tree detection in the ponderosa pine forest of the Black Hills, USA. It also discusses the consequences of long term fire policy and climate change, and the use of remote sensing technology to enhance mitigation. It was found that the near-infrared one (band 7) of WorldView-2 imagery had the highest influence on the green-attack classification. The Random Forest classification produced the best results when transferred to the independent dataset, whereas the Logistic Regression models consistently yielded the highest accuracies when cross-validated with the training data. Lessons learned include: (1) utilizing recent advances in remote sensing technologies, most notably the use of WorldView-2 data, to assist in more effectively implementing mitigation measures during an epidemic, and (2) implementing pre-emptive thinning strategies; both of which can be applied elsewhere in the American West to more effectively blunt or preclude the consequences of a mountain pine beetle outbreak on an existing ponderosa pine forest. 


Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Cartwright

Droughts and insect outbreaks are primary disturbance processes linking climate change to tree mortality in western North America. Refugia from these disturbances—locations where impacts are less severe relative to the surrounding landscape—may be priorities for conservation, restoration, and monitoring. In this study, hypotheses concerning physical and biological processes supporting refugia were investigated by modelling the landscape controls on disturbance refugia that were identified using remotely sensed vegetation indicators. Refugia were identified at 30-m resolution using anomalies of Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Moisture Index in lodgepole and whitebark pine forests in southern Oregon, USA, in 2001 (a single-year drought with no insect outbreak) and 2009 (during a multi-year drought and severe outbreak of mountain pine beetle). Landscape controls on refugia (topographic, soil, and forest characteristics) were modeled using boosted regression trees. Landscape characteristics better explained and predicted refugia locations in 2009, when forest impacts were greater, than in 2001. Refugia in lodgepole and whitebark pine forests were generally associated with topographically shaded slopes, convergent environments such as valleys, areas of relatively low soil bulk density, and in thinner forest stands. In whitebark pine forest, refugia were associated with riparian areas along headwater streams. Spatial patterns in evapotranspiration, snowmelt dynamics, soil water storage, and drought-tolerance and insect-resistance abilities may help create refugia from drought and mountain pine beetle. Identification of the landscape characteristics supporting refugia can help forest managers target conservation resources in an era of climate-change exacerbation of droughts and insect outbreaks.


2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 4681-4699
Author(s):  
Jianning Ren ◽  
Jennifer C. Adam ◽  
Jeffrey A. Hicke ◽  
Erin J. Hanan ◽  
Christina L. Tague ◽  
...  

Abstract. Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks in the western United States result in widespread tree mortality, transforming forest structure within watersheds. While there is evidence that these changes can alter the timing and quantity of streamflow, there is substantial variation in both the magnitude and direction of hydrologic responses, and the climatic and environmental mechanisms driving this variation are not well understood. Herein, we coupled an eco-hydrologic model (RHESSys) with a beetle effects model and applied it to a semiarid watershed, Trail Creek, in the Bigwood River basin in central Idaho, USA, to examine how varying degrees of beetle-caused tree mortality influence water yield. Simulation results show that water yield during the first 15 years after beetle outbreak is controlled by interactions between interannual climate variability, the extent of vegetation mortality, and long-term aridity. During wet years, water yield after a beetle outbreak increased with greater tree mortality; this was driven by mortality-caused decreases in evapotranspiration. During dry years, water yield decreased at low-to-medium mortality but increased at high mortality. The mortality threshold for the direction of change was location specific. The change in water yield also varied spatially along aridity gradients during dry years. In wetter areas of the Trail Creek basin, post-outbreak water yield decreased at low mortality (driven by an increase in ground evaporation) and increased when vegetation mortality was greater than 40 % (driven by a decrease in canopy evaporation and transpiration). In contrast, in more water-limited areas, water yield typically decreased after beetle outbreaks, regardless of mortality level (although the driving mechanisms varied). Our findings highlight the complexity and variability of hydrologic responses and suggest that long-term (i.e., multi-decadal mean) aridity can be a useful indicator for the direction of water yield changes after a disturbance.


2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 101-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer G. Klutsch ◽  
Mike A. Battaglia ◽  
Daniel R. West ◽  
Sheryl L. Costello ◽  
José F. Negrón

Abstract A mountain pine beetle outbreak in Colorado lodgepole pine forests has altered stand and fuel characteristics that affect potential fire behavior. Using the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator, potential fire behavior was modeled for uninfested and mountain pine beetle-affected plots 7 years after outbreak initiation and 10 and 80% projected tree fall using measured and projected fuel and stand characteristics. Under 90th percentile weather conditions, uninfested plots exhibited proportionally more crown fire than infested plots. Plots predicted to have crown fire were composed mainly of nonhost conifer species and had a lower and more continuous canopy than infested plots. Where surface fire was predicted to occur, live lodgepole pine was the only conifer present, and plots had significantly lower tree mortality from fire than plots predicted to have crown fire. Mountain pine beetle-induced changes in stand and fuel characteristics resulted in increased intensity of surface fire behavior. Furthermore, with 80% infested tree fall, potential smoke production was predicted to be higher. Tree species composition of stands pre and postbark beetle outbreak is important when identifying mountain pine beetle-caused changes to potential fire behavior.


2000 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 183-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.C. Vandygriff ◽  
L.A. Rasmussen ◽  
J.F. Rineholt

Abstract A multiyear study of synthesized mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) pheromones was conducted within lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) stands on the Sawtooth National Recreation Area to demonstrate their potential use as a management tool for fuelwood harvest. The use of mountain pine beetle aggregant baits was shown to be highly effective in relocating beetles into designated bait blocks, dramatically increasing the amount of beetle-related tree mortality. Treatment of blocks with antiaggregant verbenone capsules appeared to provide little or no additional protection when compared with associated control blocks. Given defined objectives and appropriate stand and insect population conditions, pheromone baits can be used to improve management of fuelwood harvest and potentially improve stand health. West. J. Appl. For. 15(4):183–188.


1987 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. S. Whitney ◽  
R. J. Bandoni ◽  
F. Oberwinkler

A new basidiomycete, Entomocorticium dendroctoni Whitn., Band. & Oberw., gen. et sp. nov., is described and illustrated. This cryptic fungus intermingles with blue stain fungi and produces abundant essentially sessile basidiospores in the galleries and pupal chambers of the mountain pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins Coleoptera: Scolytidae) in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. var. latifolia Engelm.). The insect apparently disseminates the fungus. Experimentally, young partially insectary reared adult beetles fed E. dendroctoni produced 19% more eggs than beetles fed the blue stain fungi.


2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 333-346
Author(s):  
Joseph Doccola ◽  
Sheri Smith ◽  
Joseph Fischer ◽  
Brian Strom

The protection of high-value trees against bark beetles and the development of alternatives to bole sprays is a priority for the tree manager. The objective of this study was to evaluate stem-injected TREE-äge® (emamectin benzoate [EB]) as a protective treatment for western white pines (Pinus monticola Dougl. ex D. Don) against mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). Treatment efficacy was based solely on tree mortality as per Shea protocols (i.e., ≥ 60% check vs. ≤ 20% treated tree mortality). Our first experiment was installed in 2007 and included trees stem-injected with TREE-äge and untreated controls. Bole application of S-(-)-verbenone and green leaf volatile (GLV) blend was included for observational comparison. Pressure from MPB was heavy, as indicated by the number and timing of control tree mortality (90%). Strip attacks by MPB in TREE-äge trees indicated that the impacts of EB, and by inference its distribution, were inconsistent. In 2009, the injection protocol was revised to improve EB distribution in the phloem via closer injection points. In the 2009 TREE-äge-treated trees, adult beetle mining stopped when they contacted phloem and was insufficient to cause tree death by girdling. Blue-stain fungi colonized the sapwood of trees in both studies. Isolates from autopsied trees treated with TREE-äge alone were subsequently identified as Grosmannia clavigera and Leptographium longiclavatum (Ophiostomatales: Ascomycota), species that can incite tree mortality. In 2013, we revised our protocol to include GLV plus verbenone or propiconazole with TREE-äge, wherein these treatments proved effective in protecting trees against MPB and their associated pathogenic fungi.


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