scholarly journals Thermal Time and Cardinal Temperatures for Germination of Cedrela odorata L.

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 841
Author(s):  
Salvador Sampayo-Maldonado ◽  
Cesar A. Ordoñez-Salanueva ◽  
Efisio Mattana ◽  
Tiziana Ulian ◽  
Michael Way ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Germination Rate ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Thermal Time ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Cedrela Odorata ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Cardinal Temperatures

Thermal time models are useful to determine the thermal and temporal requirements for seed germination. This information may be used as a criterion for species distribution in projected scenarios of climate change, especially in threatened species like red cedar. The objectives of this work were to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time for seeds of Cedrela odorata and to predict the effect of increasing temperature in two scenarios of climate change. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at constant temperatures ranging from 5 ± 2 to 45 ± 2 °C. Germination rate was analyzed in order to calculate cardinal temperatures and thermal time. The time required for germination of 50% of population was estimated for the current climate, as well as under the A2 and B2 scenarios for the year 2050. The results showed that base, optimal and maximal temperatures were −0.5 ± 0.09, 38 ± 1.6 and 53.3 ± 2.1 °C, respectively. Thermal time (θ1(50)) was 132.74 ± 2.60 °Cd, which in the current climate scenario accumulates after 5.5 days. Under the A2 scenario using the English model, this time is shortened to 4.5 days, while under scenario B2, the time is only 10 hours shorter than the current scenario. Under the German model, the accumulation of thermal time occurs 10 and 6.5 hours sooner than in the current climate under the A2 and B2 models, respectively. The seeds showed a wide range of temperatures for germination, and according to the climate change scenarios, the thermal time accumulates over a shorter period, accelerating the germination of seeds in the understory. This is the first report of a threshold model for C. odorata, one of the most important forest species in tropical environments.

scholarly journals Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of Swietenia macrophylla King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 2377
Author(s):  
Salvador Sampayo-Maldonado ◽  
Cesar A. Ordoñez-Salanueva ◽  
Efisio Mattana ◽  
Michael Way ◽  
Elena Castillo-Lorenzo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seed Germination ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Germination Rate ◽  
Thermal Time ◽  
Base Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Swietenia Macrophylla ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Current Scenario

Swietenia macrophylla is an economically important tree species propagated by seeds that lose their viability in a short time, making seed germination a key stage for the species recruitment. The objective of this study was to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time for seed germination of S. macrophylla; and its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at constant temperatures from 5 to 45 °C and their thermal responses modelled using a thermal time approach. In addition, the potential biogeographic distribution was projected according to the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Germination rate reached its maximum at 37.3 ± 1.3 °C (To); seed germination decreased to near zero at 52.7 ± 2.2 °C (ceiling temperature, Tc) and at 12.8 ± 2.4 °C (base temperature, Tb). The suboptimal thermal time θ150 needed for 50% germination was ca. 190 °Cd, which in the current scenario is accumulated in 20 days. The CCSM4 model estimates an increase of the potential distribution of the species of 12.3 to 18.3% compared to the current scenario. The temperature had an important effect on the physiological processes of the seeds. With the increase in temperature, the thermal needs for germination are completed in less time, so the species will not be affected in its distribution. Although the distribution of the species may not be affected, it is crucial to generate sustainable management strategies to ensure its long-term conservation.

scholarly journals Predicting the Water Requirement for Rice Production as Affected by Projected Climate Change in Bihar, India

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3312
Author(s):  
Ranjeet K. Jha ◽  
Prasanta K. Kalita ◽  
Richard A. Cooke ◽  
Praveen Kumar ◽  
Paul C. Davidson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change is a well-known phenomenon all over the globe. The influence of projected climate change on agricultural production, either positive or negative, can be assessed for various locations. The present study was conducted to investigate the impact of projected climate change on rice’s production, water demand and phenology for the state of Bihar, India. Furthermore, this study assessed the irrigation water requirement to increase the rice production by 60%, for the existing current climate scenario and all the four IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) by the 2050s (2050–2059). Various management practices were used as adaptation methods to analyze the requirement of irrigation water for a 60% increase in rice production. The climate data obtained from the four General Circulation Models (GCMs) (bcc_csm1.1, csiro_mk3_6_0, ipsl_cm5a_mr and miroc_miroc5) were used in the crop growth model, with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) used to simulate the rice yield, phenological days and water demand under all four climate change scenarios. The results obtained from the CERES-Rice model in the DSSAT, corresponding to all four GCMs, were ensembled together to obtain the overall change in yield, phenology and water demand for 10 years of interval from 2020 to 2059. We investigated several strategies: increasing the rice’s yield by 60% with current agronomic practice; increasing the yield by 60% with conservation agricultural practice; and increasing the rice yield by 30% with current agronomic practice as well as with conservation agricultural practices (assuming that the other 30% increase in yield would be achieved by reducing post-harvest losses by 30%). The average increase in precipitation between 2020 and 2059 was observed to be 5.23%, 13.96%, 9.30% and 9.29%, respectively, for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. The decrease in yield during the 2050s, from the baseline period (1980–2004), was observed to be 2.94%, 3.87%, 4.02% and 5.84% for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The irrigation requirement was predicted to increase by a range of 39% to 45% for a 60% increase in yield using the current agronomic practice in current climate scenario and by 2050s with all the four climate change scenarios from the baseline period (1980–2004). We found that if we combine both conservation agriculture and removal of 30% of the post-harvest losses, the irrigation requirement would be reduced by 26% (45 to 19%), 20% (44 to 24%), 21% (43 to 22%), 22% (39 to 17%) and 20% (41 to 21%) with current climate scenario, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 conditions, respectively. This combination of conservation practices suggests that the irrigation water requirement can be reduced by a large percentage, even if we produce 60% more food under the projected climate change conditions.

scholarly journals TEMPERATURE - GERMINATION RESPONSES OF SUNFLOWER (Helianthus annuus L.) GENOTYPES / GERMINACION COMO REACCION A LA TEMPERATURA EN LOS GENOTIPOS DEL GIRASOL (Helianthus annuus L.) / GERMINATION - RÉACTION À LA TEMPÉRATURE DANS LES GÉNOTYPES DE TOURNESOL (Helianthus annuus L.)

Helia ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 23 (33) ◽  
pp. 97-104
Author(s):  
F.M. Khalifa ◽  
A.A. Schneiter ◽  
E.I. El Tayeb
Keyword(s):  
Seed Germination ◽  
Helianthus Annuus ◽  
Maximum Rate ◽  
Germination Rate ◽  
Thermal Time ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Helianthus Annuus L ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Cardinal Temperature

SUMMARY Seed germination of six sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) hybrids was investigated across a range of eleven constant temperatures between 5°C and 45°C. Large temperature differences in germination rate 1/t (d-1), cardinal temperature (°C) and thermal time θ (°cd) were observed among hybrids. Base temperatures (Tb) varied between 3.3°C and 6.7°C whereas maximum germination temperatures (Tm) varied between 41.7°C and 48.9°C. Final germination fraction was attained at 15°C - 25°C whereas the maximum rate of germination was attained at 30.4°C - 35.6°C. The maximum germination rate of hybrid USDA 894, the cultivar with the slowest germination rate, was only 50% of that of hybrid EX 47. The low Tb and high Tm of sunflower appear to be one of the factors which explain the successful adaptation of sunflower to a wide range of temperature. These findings are discussed in relation to the origin of the crop and its wide adaptations in diverse habitats and climatic zones.

Determination of Cardinal Temperatures of Flax-leaf Alyssum (Alyssum linifolium) in Response to Salinity, pH, and Drought Stress

Weed Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 470-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmadreza Mobli ◽  
Ali Ghanbari ◽  
Mehdi Rastgoo
Keyword(s):  
Germination Rate ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Quadratic Polynomial ◽  
Polynomial Model ◽  
Weed Species ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Species Specific ◽  
Cardinal Temperatures ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractFlax-leaf alyssum (Alyssum linifoliumSteph. ex. Willd.) is a winter weed species in irrigated and dryland farming systems of Iran. Experiments were conducted to compare the cardinal temperatures ofA. linifoliumat different levels of drought, salt concentration, and pH. In all experiments, the dent-like model showed a better fit than the quadratic polynomial model.Alyssum linifoliumproduced the highest germination rates at pH 7 and a temperature of 20C in nonstress treatment. Minimum, optimum, and ceiling temperatures in the dent-like model were 4.1 (upper=26.8, lower=10.0) and 35C, and in the quadratic polynomial model were 3.3, 19.1, and 35.0C, respectively. At increased salinity and drought potential levels, the minimum temperature increased, while optimum and ceiling temperatures decreased. Seeds could germinate at up to 20 dS m−1and −1 MPa, respectively, but germination rate and percentage significantly decreased. The seeds of this weed germinated across a wide range of pH values (4≤pH≥8), but the temperature range at which seeds could germinate was reduced. These data serve as guidelines for species-specific propagation protocols and agricultural decision support systems.

scholarly journals Regional effects of alternative climate change and management scenarios on timber production, economic profitability, and carbon stocks in Norway spruce forests in Finland

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 274-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Zubizarreta-Gerendiain ◽  
J. Garcia-Gonzalo ◽  
H. Strandman ◽  
K. Jylhä ◽  
H. Peltola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Timber Production ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Regional Effects ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Management Recommendations

We studied regional effects of alternative climate change and management scenarios on timber production, its economic profitability (net present value (NPV), with 2% interest rate), and carbon stocks over a 90 year simulation period in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests located in southern, central, and northern Finland. We also compared the results of optimised management plans (maximizing incomes) and fixed management scenarios. Business as usual (BAU) management recommendations were used as the basis for alternative management scenarios. The forest ecosystem model SIMA together with a forest optimisation tool was employed. To consider the uncertainties related to climate change, we applied two climate change scenarios (SRES B1 and SRES A2) in addition to the current climate. Results showed that timber production, NPV, and carbon stocks of forests would reduce in southern Finland, opposite to northern Finland, especially under the strong climate change scenario (SRES A2) compared with the current climate. In central Finland, climate change would have little effect. The use of optimised management plans also resulted in higher timber yield, NPV, and carbon stock of forests compared with the use of a single management scenario, regardless of forest region and climate scenario applied. In the future, we may need to modify the current BAU management recommendations to properly adapt to the changing climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 6229-6245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henk-Jan van der Kolk ◽  
Monique M. P. D. Heijmans ◽  
Jacobus van Huissteden ◽  
Jeroen W. M. Pullens ◽  
Frank Berendse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Vegetation Shifts ◽  
Permafrost Thaw ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Tundra Vegetation ◽  
Tundra Ecosystem ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be responsible for local shrub decline instead of shrub expansion.

scholarly journals The role of glacier dynamics and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marit Van Tiel ◽  
Adriaan J. Teuling ◽  
Niko Wanders ◽  
Marc J. P. Vis ◽  
Kerstin Stahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Glacier Dynamics ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various time scales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, defined as below normal water availabilities. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long time scales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the HBV-light model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamical glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975–2004) and future (2071–2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed, (1) the threshold from the historical period and (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamical glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historic periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier dynamics conceptualisations. With the transient threshold causing factors of future droughts, can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short term climate variability on droughts and the dynamical glacier area to model realistic future discharges under climate change.

scholarly journals The PROFOUND Database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on European forests

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 1295-1320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher P. O. Reyer ◽  
Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez ◽  
Klara Dolos ◽  
Florian Hartig ◽  
Ylva Hauf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nitrogen Deposition ◽  
Forest Stand ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
European Forests ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Vegetation Models

Abstract. Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data on European forests to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage of this database is its wide coverage of multiple data sources at different hierarchical and temporal scales, together with environmental driving data as well as the latest climate scenarios. Specifically, the PROFOUND DB provides general site descriptions, soil, climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition, tree and forest stand level, and remote sensing data for nine contrasting forest stands distributed across Europe. Moreover, for a subset of five sites, time series of carbon fluxes, atmospheric heat conduction and soil water are also available. The climate and nitrogen deposition data contain several datasets for the historic period and a wide range of future climate change scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). We also provide pre-industrial climate simulations that allow for model runs aimed at disentangling the contribution of climate change to observed forest productivity changes. The PROFOUND DB is available freely as a “SQLite” relational database or “ASCII” flat file version (at https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2020.006/; Reyer et al., 2020). The data policies of the individual contributing datasets are provided in the metadata of each data file. The PROFOUND DB can also be accessed via the ProfoundData R package (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ProfoundData; Silveyra Gonzalez et al., 2020), which provides basic functions to explore, plot and extract the data for model set-up, calibration and evaluation.

scholarly journals Modeling the combined impact of future climate and land use changes on streamflow of Xinjiang Basin, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 356-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renhua Yan ◽  
Jiacong Huang ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Junfeng Gao ◽  
Lingyan Qi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Evolution

The response of hydrologic circulation to climate and land use changes is important in studying the historical, present, and future evolution of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 multi-model ensemble and a raster-based Xin'anjiang model were applied to simulate future streamflows under three climate change scenarios and two land use/cover change conditions in the Xinjiang Basin, China, and to investigate the combined effect of future climate and land use/cover changes on streamflow. Simulation results indicated that future climate and land use/cover changes affect not only the seasonal distributions of streamflow, but also the annual amounts of streamflow. For each climate scenario, the average monthly streamflows increase by more than 4% in autumn and early winter, while decreasing by more than −26% in spring and summer for the 21st century. The annual streamflows present a clear decreasing trend of −27%. Compared with land use/cover change, climate change affects streamflow change more. Land use/cover change can mitigate the climate change effect from January to August and enhance it in other months. These results can provide scientific information for regional water resources management and land use planning in the future.

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