scholarly journals Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Qinghai Spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) in Qilian Mountains

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhanlei Rong ◽  
Chuanyan Zhao ◽  
Junjie Liu ◽  
Yunfei Gao ◽  
Fei Zang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Climate Condition ◽  
Picea Crassifolia ◽  
The Real ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Real Distribution ◽  
Qinghai Spruce

Qinghai spruce forests play a key role in water conservation in the dry region of northwest China. So, it is necessary to understand the impacts of climate change on the species to implement adaptation strategies. Based on the four-emission scenario (i.e., RCP2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report, in the study, we predicted the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) under current and future scenarios using a maximum entropy (Maxent) model. Seven variables, selected from 22 variables according to correlation analysis combining with their contribution rates to the distribution, are used to simulate the potential distribution of the species under current and future scenarios. Simulated results are validated by area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results demonstrate that elevation, mean temperature of wettest quarter, annual mean temperature, and mean diurnal range are more important in dominating the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce. Ratios of the suitable area to the total study area are 34.3% in current climate condition, 34% in RCP2.6, 33.9% in RCP4.5, 33.8% in RCP6.0, and 30.5% in RCP8.5, respectively. The warmer the climate condition is, the more area of higher suitable classification is changed to that of lower suitable classification. The ratios of real distribution area in simulated unsuitable class to the real distribution area change from 4.3% (60.7 km2) in the current climate to 13% (185 km2) in RCP8.5, suggesting that the real distribution area may decrease in the future. We conclude that there is a negative effect of climate change on the distribution of Qinghai spruce forest. The result can help decision-makers to draft adaptation countermeasures based on climate change.

scholarly journals Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Vargas-Piedra ◽  
Ricardo David Valdez-Cepeda ◽  
Armando López-Santos ◽  
Arnoldo Flores-Hernández ◽  
Nathalie S. Hernández-Quiroz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a shrub species distributed throughout the Chihuahuan Desert in northern Mexico and southern of the United States of America. Candelilla has an economic importance due to natural wax it produces. The economic importance and the intense harvest of the wax from candelilla seems to gradually reduce the natural populations of this species. The essence of this research was to project the potential distribution of candelilla populations under different climate change scenarios in its natural distribution area in North America. We created a spatial database with points of candelilla presence, according to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A spatial analysis to predict the potential distribution of the species using Maxent software was performed. Thirteen of 19 variables from the WorldClim database were used for two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 as a conservative and 8.5 as extreme). We used climate projections from three global climate models (GCMs) (Max Planck institute, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley), each simulating the two scenarios. The final predicted distribution areas were classified in five on-site possible candelilla habitat suitability categories: none (< 19%), low (20–38%), medium (39–57%), high (58–76%) and very high (> 77%). According to the area under the curve (0.970), the models and scenarios used showed an adequate fit to project the current and future distribution of candelilla. The variable that contributed the most in the three GCMs and the two RCPs was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter with an influence of 45.7% (Jackknife test). The candelilla’s distribution area for North America was predicted as approximately 19.1 million hectares under the current conditions for the high habitat suitability; however, the projection for the next fifty years is not promising because the GCMs projected a reduction of more than 6.9 million hectares using either the conservative or extreme scenarios. The results are useful for conservation of the species in the area with vulnerable wild populations, as well as for the selection of new sites suitable for the species growth and cultivation while facing climate change.

scholarly journals Impact of Past and Future Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of an Endangered Montane Shrub Lonicera oblata and Its Conservation Implications

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Yuan-Mi Wu ◽  
Xue-Li Shen ◽  
Ling Tong ◽  
Feng-Wei Lei ◽  
Xian-Yun Mu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Endangered Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
North China ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Conservation Implications ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, we modeled the distributional dynamics of a critically endangered montane shrub Lonicera oblata in response to climate change under different periods by building a comprehensive habitat suitability model considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. Our results indicated that the current suitable habitats for L. oblata are located scarcely in North China. Historical modeling indicated that L. oblata achieved its maximum potential distribution in the last interglacial period which covered southwest China, while its distribution area decreased for almost 50% during the last glacial maximum. It further contracted during the middle Holocene to a distribution resembling the current pattern. Future modeling showed that the suitable habitats of L. oblata contracted dramatically, and populations were fragmentedly distributed in these areas. As a whole, the distribution of L. oblata showed significant migration northward in latitude but no altitudinal shift. Several mountains in North China may provide future stable climatic areas for L. oblata, particularly, the intersections between the Taihang and Yan mountains. Our study strongly suggested that the endangered montane shrub L. oblata are sensitive to climate change, and the results provide new insights into the conservation of it and other endangered species.

scholarly journals An Economy-Climate Model for Quantitatively Projecting the Impact of Future Climate Change and Its Application

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Wenjie Dong ◽  
Weixing Zhao ◽  
Jiangnan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Climate Condition ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Quantitatively projecting the impact of future climate change on the socio-economy and exploring its internal mechanism are of great practical significance to adapt to climate change and prevent climate risks. Based on the economy-climate (C-D-C) model, this paper introduces a yield impact of climate change (YICC) model that can quantitatively project the climate change impact. The model is based on the YICC as its core concept and uses the impact ratio of climate change (IRCC) indicator to assess the response of the economic system to climate change over a long period of time. The YICC is defined as the difference between the economic output under changing climate condition and that under assumed invariant climate condition. The IRCC not only reflects the sensitivity of economic output to climate change but also reveals the mechanism of the nonlinear interaction between climate change and non-climatic factors on the socio-economic system. Using the main grain-producing areas in China as a case study, we use the data of the ensemble average of 5 GCMs in CMIP6 to project the possible impact of climate change on grain production in the next 15–30 years under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the long-term climate change in the future will have a restraining effect on production in North region and enhance production in South region. From 2021 to 2035, climate change will reduce production by 0.60–2.09% in North region, and increase production by 1.80–9.01% in South region under three future scenarios. From 2021 to 2050, compared with the climate change impact in 2021–2035, the negative impact of climate change on production in North region will weaken, and the positive impact on production in South region will enhance with the increase in emission concentration. Among them, climate change will reduce grain output in North region by 0.52–1.99%, and increase output in South region by 1.35–9.56% under the three future scenarios. The combination of economic results and climate change research is expected to provide scientific support for further revealing the economic mechanism of climate change impacts.

scholarly journals Present and Future Climate-Related Distribution of Narrow- versus Wide-Ranged Ostrya Species in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1366
Author(s):  
Shuang-Li Tang ◽  
Yao-Bin Song ◽  
Bo Zeng ◽  
Ming Dong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Niche Breadth ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Range Size ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Risk Of Extinction ◽  
Current Scenario

The niche breadth–range size hypothesis states that geographic range size of a species is positively correlated with its environmental niche breadth. We test this hypothesis and examine whether the correlation varies with climate change and among taxa through modeling (processing Maximum entropy (Maxent)) potential distributions in present and future climate scenario of four sympatric Ostrya species in China and with different geographic range sizes, including extremely rare O. rehderiana. Potential geographical distributions of narrow- versus wide-ranged Ostrya species were predicted based on their niche breadths. Niche equivalency and similarity tests were performed to examine niche overlap between species pairs. Potential distribution areas of wide niche breadth species (O. japonica and O. trichocarpa) were significantly wider than those of narrow niche breadth species (O. multinervis and O. rehderiana) although niche divergence was hardly observed among them. In the future scenarios of global climate change, wide-ranged O. japonica would have wider potential distribution than in the current scenario, even expanding their geographic range. Conversely, suitable habitats of narrow-ranged O. multinervis and O. rehderiana would be reduced strikingly in future scenarios compared to in the current scenario, and they might be subjected to a high risk of extinction. Potential distribution range sizes of the Ostrya species would positively correlate with their niche breadths in future scenarios, and their niche breadths would determine their distribution variation with climate change. The Ostrya species having broader niche currently would be further widespread in future scenarios while narrowly distributed Ostrya species having narrower niche currently would further reduce their distribution range under changed climate and might be subjected to a high risk of extinction in future scenarios. Our results support the range size–niche breadth hypothesis both at present and future climate scenarios, and they provide useful reference for conservation of rare species like O. rehderiana.

scholarly journals Climate Change Research – What Do We Need Really?

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-121
Author(s):  
P. Rama Chandra Prasad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Research Note ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This research note focuses on the current climate change research scenario and discusses primarily what is required in the present global climate change conditions. Most of the climate change research and models predict adverse future conditions that have to be faced by humanity, with less emphasis on mitigation measures. Moreover, research ends as reports on the shelves of scientists and researchers and as publications in journals. At this juncture the major focus should be on research that helps in reducing the impact rather than on analysing future scenarios of climate change using different models. The article raises several questions and suggestions regards climate change research and lays emphasis on what we really need from climate change researchers.

Glacier response to current climate change and future scenarios in the northwestern Italian Alps

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 633-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Bonanno ◽  
Christian Ronchi ◽  
Barbara Cagnazzi ◽  
Antonello Provenzale
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Italian Alps ◽  
Current Climate

Response of Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to the current climate change and future scenarios by 2050

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei-hong Shi ◽  
Ke-qin Duan ◽  
Huan-cai Liu ◽  
Jun-hua Yang ◽  
Xiao Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Central Tibetan Plateau

scholarly journals The canopy rainfall interception in actual and potential distribution of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) forest

2013 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhonglin Xu ◽  
Zhaodong Feng ◽  
Chuanyan Zhao ◽  
Jianghua Zheng ◽  
Jianjun Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Spruce Forest ◽  
Rainfall Interception ◽  
Picea Crassifolia ◽  
Qinghai Spruce ◽  
Arid And Semiarid

Abstract Interception is one of the most underestimated processes in hydrological cycle in arid and semiarid regions. In Qilian Mountains of northwestern arid and semiarid China, the Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) forest plays an important role in the hydrological cycle of the inland Heihe River basin. The historical disturbance of Qinghai spruce forest has resulted in various ecological problems. In order to realize the sustainable development of Heihe River basin, the Chinese government implemented restoration practices for Qinghai spruce in the past three decades. In this study, we estimated the rainfall interception in the actual and potential distribution of Qinghai spruce forest. Some of the important findings include: (1) The interception ratio of rainfall events ranged from 11-51% with a mean value of 27.02%; (2) Totally, 147 Mt of rainfall is intercepted by canopy of actual Qinghai spruce forest, in the projected potential distribution of the forest, totally 407 Mt of rainfall will be intercepted.

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