scholarly journals On the Introduction of Diffusion Uncertainty in Telecommunications’ Market Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Kanellos ◽  
Dimitrios Katsianis ◽  
Dimitrios Varoutas
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Technology ◽  
Telecommunication Services ◽  
Technology Markets ◽  
Portfolio Decisions ◽  
Probabilistic Distribution ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Telecommunications Market

Long-run forecasts of telecommunication services’ diffusion play an important role in policy, regulation, planning and portfolio decisions. Forecasting diffusion of telecommunication technologies is usually based on S-shaped models, mainly due to their accurate long-term predictions. Yet, the use of these models does not allow the introduction of risk in the forecast. In this paper, a methodology for the introduction of uncertainty in the underlying calculations is presented. It is based on the calibration of an Ito stochastic process and the generation of possible forecast paths via Monte Carlo Simulation. Results consist of a probabilistic distribution of future demand, which constitutes a risk assessment of the diffusion process under study. The proposed methodology can find applications in all high-technology markets, where a diffusion model is usually applied for obtaining future forecasts.

Infrastructure mortgage in Russia: Opportunities and prospects

2019 ◽  
pp. 114-133
Author(s):  
G. I. Idrisov ◽  
Y. Yu. Ponomarev
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Negative Effect

The article shows that depending on the goals pursued by the federal government and the available interbudgetary tools a different design of infrastructure mortgage is preferable. Three variants of such mortgage in Russia are proposed, each of which is better suited for certain types of projects and uses different forms of subsidies. According to our expert assessment the active use of infrastructure mortgage in Russia can increase the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 p. p. on the horizon of 5—7 years. In the long run the growth of infrastructure financing through the use of infrastructure mortgage could increase long-term economic growth by 0.9 p. p., which in 20—30 years can add 20—30% of GDP to the economy. However, the change in the structure of budget expenditures in the absence of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt will cause no direct impact on monetary policy. The increase in the deficit and the build-up of public debt will have a negative effect on inflation expectations, which will require monetary tightening for a longer time to stabilize them.

PENGARUH INFRASTRUKTUR SECARA SPASIAL TERHADAP KONVERGENSI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

INFO ARTHA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 17-28
Author(s):  
Anisa Fahmi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Economics ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Theory

Motivated by inter-regional disparities condition that occurs persistently, this study examines the Indonesian economy in the long run in order to know whether it tends to converge or diverge. This convergence is based on the Solow Neoclassical growth theory assuming the existence of diminishing returns to capital so that when the developed countries reach steady state conditions, developing countries will continuously grow up to 'catch-up' with developed countries. Based on regional economics perspective, each region can not be treated as a stand-alone unit,therefore, this study also focuses on the influence of spatial dependency and infrastructure. Economical and political situations of a region will influence policy in that region which will also have an impact to the neighboring regions. The estimation results of spatial cross-regressive model using fixed effect method consistently confirmed that the Indonesian economy in the long term will likely converge with a speed of 8.08 percent per year. Other findings are road infrastructure has a positive effect on economic growth and investment and road infrastructure are spatially showed a positive effect on economic growth. In other words, the investment and infrastructure of a region does not only affect the economic growth of that region but also to the economy of the contiguous regions. 

From Help Giving to Helping Relations

2018 ◽  
pp. 464-488
Author(s):  
Arie Nadler
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Psychological Needs ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Help Giving ◽  
Social Psychological Research ◽  
Practical Implications

This chapter reviews social psychological research on help giving and helping relations from the 1950s until today. The first section considers the conditions under which people are likely to help others, personality dispositions that characterize helpful individuals, and motivational and attributional antecedents of helpfulness. The second section looks at long-term consequences of help and examines help in the context of enduring and emotionally significant relationships. Research has shown that in the long run help can increase psychological and physical well-being for helpers but discourage self-reliance for recipients. The third section analyzes helping from intra- and intergroup perspectives, considering how its provision can contribute to helpers’ reputations within a group or promote the positive social identity of in-groups relative to out-groups. Help is thus conceptualized as a negotiation between the fundamental psychological needs for belongingness and independence. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

Lethal and long-term effects of landfill leachate on Eisenia andrei earthworms: Behavior, reproduction and risk assessment

2021 ◽  
Vol 285 ◽  
pp. 112029
Author(s):  
Sidney Fernandes Sales Junior ◽  
Camille Ferreira Mannarino ◽  
Daniele Maia Bila ◽  
Cláudio Ernesto Taveira Parente ◽  
Fábio Veríssimo Correia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Landfill Leachate ◽  
Eisenia Andrei ◽  
Long Term Effects

scholarly journals Sector Volatility Spillover and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China’s Stock Market

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1411
Author(s):  
Xiaqing Su ◽  
Zhe Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Transmission Structure ◽  
Long Term Impact

Following generalized variance decomposition, we identify the transmission structure of financial shock among ten sectors in China. Then, we examine whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects it through GARCH-MIDAS regression. We find that consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials sectors are systemically important industries during the sample period. Further research of dynamic analysis shows that each sector acts in a time-varying role in this structure. The results of the GARCH-MIDAS regression indicate that none of the selected EPU indexes has a significant long-term impact on the total volatility spillover of the inter-sector stock market in China. However, the EPUs do affect some sectors’ spillover indexes in the long run, and they are significantly heterogeneous. This paper can provide regulatory suggestions for policymakers and reasonable asset allocation and risk avoidance methods for investors.

scholarly journals Peripheral atherosclerosis and abdominal aortic aneurysm as a new risk factors of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with stable CAD receiving long-term antithrombotic therapy

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
V Korobkova ◽  
AL Komarov ◽  
OO Shakhmatova ◽  
MV Andreevskaya ◽  
EB Yarovaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Antithrombotic Therapy ◽  
Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding ◽  
Atherosclerotic Burden ◽  
Abdominal Aortic ◽  
Stable Cad ◽  
Upper Gastrointestinal

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is the most common hemorrhagic complication in stable CAD patients receiving antithrombotic therapy. It seems that atherosclerotic burden may increase the overall bleeding frequency. However, this factor has never been taken into account with UGIB risk assessment. We aimed to assess the predictive value of atherosclerotic burden (peripheral atherosclerosis – PAD and abdominal aortic aneurysm - AAA) for UGIB in patients with stable CAD receiving long-term antithrombotic therapy. Patients and Methods. A single center prospective Registry of Long-term AnTithrombotic TherApy (REGATTA-1 NCT04347200) included 934 pts with stable CAD (78.6% males, median age 61 [IQR 53-68] yrs). 77,3 %  of patients received dual antiplatelet therapy due to recent PCI with a switch to aspirin monotherapy after 6 months. 17,6% of patients received aspirin only, 5,1 % of patients received oral anticoagulants because of concomitant atrial fibrillation. Risk assessment of UGIB was performed according to the 2015 European Society of Cardiology guidelines (we were not able to identify only Helicobacter pylori infection). Additional ultrasound screening for PAD (lower limbs and cerebrovascular beds) and AAA was applied. The primary outcome was any overt UGIB (BARC ≥2). Results  The frequency of PAD was 18,8%, AAA – 2,4%, PAD and/or AAA -  20,5%. In a total 2335 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up - 2,5 yrs, IQR 1,1 – 5.1), UGIB occurred in 51 patients (incidence at 1 year 1,9 per 100 patients).  The median time to first occurrence of UGIB was 72 [IQR 13-214] days. Comparing the Kaplan-Meyer curves, the UGIB developed three times more often in patients with coexisted PAD and/or AAA vs isolated CAD (19.8% vs 6.5%, Log-Rank p = 0.00006). The difference remains consisted in regression model taking in account 2015 ESC panel of UGIB risk factors (OR 3.4; CI 1.7–6.9, p = 0,0005). Conclusions Atherosclerotic burden (concomitant PAD and/or AAA) is an independent predictor of UGIB in patients with stable CAD receiving long-term antithrombotic therapy.

Where Did All the Dollars Go? The Effect of Cash Flows on Capital and Asset Structure

2011 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1259-1294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudipto Dasgupta ◽  
Thomas H. Noe ◽  
Zhen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Short And Long Term

AbstractThis paper documents the short- and long-term balance sheet effect of cash flows. We show that cash savings in the short run and debt reduction in both the short and the long run account for a substantial fraction of cash flow use. Although, in the long run, investment exhibits substantial sensitivity to cash flows, investment does not absorb the entire cash flow shock. In fact, the tighter the financial constraints, the smaller the fraction of cash flow absorbed by investment and the more by leverage reduction. Firms stage their response to increases in cash flow, delaying investment while building up cash stocks and reducing leverage. These results suggest that much of the short-run economic effect of cash flow shocks to the corporate sector may be channeled into the corporate debt market rather than the capital goods market, especially when financing constraints tighten.

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