scholarly journals The WRF Model Forecast-Derived Low-Level Wind Shear Climatology over the United States Great Plains

Energies ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon Storm ◽  
Sukanta Basu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Forecast ◽  
Low Level

scholarly journals Climatology of Severe Local Storm Environments and Synoptic-Scale Features over North America in ERA5 Reanalysis and CAM6 Simulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8339-8365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Funing Li ◽  
Daniel R. Chavas ◽  
Kevin A. Reed ◽  
Daniel T. Dawson II
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
High Bias

AbstractSevere local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features—including southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones—that link the large-scale climate to SLS environments. This work analyzes spatiotemporal distributions of both extreme values of SLS environmental parameters and synoptic-scale features in the ERA5 reanalysis and in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), historical simulation during 1980–2014 over North America. Compared to radiosondes, ERA5 successfully reproduces SLS environments, with strong spatiotemporal correlations and low biases, especially over the Great Plains. Both ERA5 and CAM6 reproduce the climatology of SLS environments over the central United States as well as its strong seasonal and diurnal cycles. ERA5 and CAM6 also reproduce the climatological occurrence of the synoptic-scale features, with the distribution pattern similar to that of SLS environments. Compared to ERA5, CAM6 exhibits a high bias in convective available potential energy over the eastern United States primarily due to a high bias in surface moisture and, to a lesser extent, storm-relative helicity due to enhanced low-level winds. Composite analysis indicates consistent synoptic anomaly patterns favorable for significant SLS environments over much of the eastern half of the United States in both ERA5 and CAM6, though the pattern differs for the southeastern United States. Overall, our results indicate that both ERA5 and CAM6 are capable of reproducing SLS environments as well as the synoptic-scale features and transient events that generate them.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Moisture Transport over the United States and Mexico as Evaluated in the NCEP Regional Reanalysis

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 710-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kingtse C. Mo ◽  
Muthuvel Chelliah ◽  
Marco L. Carrera ◽  
R. Wayne Higgins ◽  
Wesley Ebisuzaki
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Regional Reanalysis

Abstract The large-scale atmospheric hydrologic cycle over the United States and Mexico derived from the 23-yr NCEP regional reanalysis (RR) was evaluated by comparing the RR products with satellite estimates, independent sounding data, and the operational Eta Model three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system (EDAS). In general, the winter atmospheric transport and precipitation are realistic. The climatology and interannual variability of the Pacific, subtropical jet streams, and low-tropospheric moisture transport are well captured. During the summer season, the basic features and the evolution of the North American monsoon (NAM) revealed by the RR compare favorably with observations. The RR also captures the out-of-phase relationship of precipitation as well as the moisture flux convergence between the central United States and the Southwest. The RR is able to capture the zonal easterly Caribbean low-level jet (CALLJ) and the meridional southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Together, they transport copious moisture from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico and from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Plains, respectively. The RR systematically overestimates the meridional southerly Gulf of California low-level jet (GCLLJ). A comparison with observations suggests that the meridional winds from the RR are too strong, with the largest differences centered over the northern Gulf of California. The strongest winds over the Gulf in the RR extend above 700 hPa, while the operational EDAS and station soundings indicate that the GCLLJ is confined to the boundary layer.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Moisture Transport by the Low-Level Jet during the IHOP Field Experiment

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (10) ◽  
pp. 3781-3795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward I. Tollerud ◽  
Fernando Caracena ◽  
Steven E. Koch ◽  
Brian D. Jamison ◽  
R. Michael Hardesty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Low Level Jet

Previous studies of the low-level jet (LLJ) over the central Great Plains of the United States have been unable to determine the role that mesoscale and smaller circulations play in the transport of moisture. To address this issue, two aircraft missions during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) were designed to observe closely a well-developed LLJ over the Great Plains (primarily Oklahoma and Kansas) with multiple observation platforms. In addition to standard operational platforms (most important, radiosondes and profilers) to provide the large-scale setting, dropsondes released from the aircraft at 55-km intervals and a pair of onboard lidar instruments—High Resolution Doppler Lidar (HRDL) for wind and differential absorption lidar (DIAL) for moisture—observed the moisture transport in the LLJ at greater resolution. Using these observations, the authors describe the multiscalar structure of the LLJ and then focus attention on the bulk properties and effects of scales of motion by computing moisture fluxes through cross sections that bracket the LLJ. From these computations, the Reynolds averages within the cross sections can be computed. This allow an estimate to be made of the bulk effect of integrated estimates of the contribution of small-scale (mesoscale to convective scale) circulations to the overall transport. The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in forecasting the intensity and evolution of the LLJ for this case is briefly examined.

scholarly journals Tornado Damage Rating Probabilities Derived from WSR-88D Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1509-1528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Bryan T. Smith ◽  
Jeremy S. Grams ◽  
Andrew R. Dean ◽  
Joseph C. Picca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Damage Indicators ◽  
Tornado Damage

Abstract Previous work with observations from the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) network in the United States has shown that the probability of damage from a tornado, as represented by EF-scale ratings, increases as low-level rotational velocity increases. This work expands on previous studies by including reported tornadoes from 2014 to 2015, as well as a robust sample of nontornadic severe thunderstorms [≥1-in.- (2.54 cm) diameter hail, thunderstorm wind gusts ≥ 50 kt (25 m s−1), or reported wind damage] with low-level cyclonic rotation. The addition of the nontornadic sample allows the computation of tornado damage rating probabilities across a spectrum of organized severe thunderstorms represented by right-moving supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. Dual-polarization variables are used to ensure proper use of velocity data in the identification of tornadic and nontornadic cases. Tornado damage rating probabilities increase as low-level rotational velocity Vrot increases and circulation diameter decreases. The influence of height above radar level (or range from radar) is less obvious, with a muted tendency for tornado damage rating probabilities to increase as rotation (of the same Vrot magnitude) is observed closer to the ground. Consistent with previous work on gate-to-gate shear signatures such as the tornadic vortex signature, easily identifiable rotation poses a greater tornado risk compared to more nebulous areas of cyclonic azimuthal shear. Additionally, tornado probability distributions vary substantially (for similar sample sizes) when comparing the southeast United States, which has a high density of damage indicators, to the Great Plains, where damage indicators are more sparse.

scholarly journals Observational Analysis of the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 813-838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Israel L. Jirak ◽  
William R. Cotton
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have a large influence on the weather over the central United States during the warm season by generating essential rainfall and severe weather. To gain insight into the predictability of these systems, the precursor environments of several hundred MCSs across the United States were reviewed during the warm seasons of 1996–98. Surface analyses were used to identify initiating mechanisms for each system, and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to examine the environment prior to MCS development. Similarly, environments unable to support organized convective systems were also investigated for comparison with MCS precursor environments. Significant differences were found between environments that support MCS development and those that do not support convective organization. MCSs were most commonly initiated by frontal boundaries; however, features that enhance convective initiation are often not sufficient for MCS development, as the environment needs also to be supportive for the development and organization of long-lived convective systems. Low-level warm air advection, low-level vertical wind shear, and convective instability were found to be the most important parameters in determining whether concentrated convection would undergo upscale growth into an MCS. Based on these results, an index was developed for use in forecasting MCSs. The MCS index assigns a likelihood of MCS development based on three terms: 700-hPa temperature advection, 0–3-km vertical wind shear, and the lifted index. An evaluation of the MCS index revealed that it exhibits features consistent with common MCS characteristics and is reasonably accurate in forecasting MCSs, especially given that convective initiation has occurred, offering the possibility of usefulness in operational forecasting.

The Temporal Evolution of Convective Indices in Storm-Producing Environments

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 786-794 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J. Wagner ◽  
Wayne F. Feltz ◽  
Steven A. Ackerman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Wind Profiler ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Tornadic Storms

Abstract Temporal changes in stability and shear associated with the development of thunderstorms are quantified using the enhanced temporal resolution of combined Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) thermodynamic profile retrievals and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 404-MHz wind profiler observations. From 1999 to 2003, AERI systems were collocated with NOAA wind profilers at five sites in the southern Great Plains of the United States, creating a near-continuous dataset of atmospheric soundings in both the prestorm and poststorm environments with a temporal resolution of up to 10 min between observations. Median values for several standard severe weather indices were calculated for tornadic storms and nontornadic supercells. It was found that instability generally increases throughout the preconvective period, reaching a peak roughly 1 h before a tornado forms or a nontornadic supercell forms large hail. Wind shear for both tornadic and nontornadic storms starts to increase roughly 3 h before storm time. However, indices are highly variable between time and space and may not be representative of the environment at large.

scholarly journals Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part II: ERA5 Environments Associated with Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (23) ◽  
pp. 10263-10286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Tomáš Púčik ◽  
Kimberly A. Hoogewind ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Local Maxima ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Lapse Rates

AbstractIn this study we investigate convective environments and their corresponding climatological features over Europe and the United States. For this purpose, National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Arrival Time Difference long-range lightning detection network (ATDnet) data, ERA5 hybrid-sigma levels, and severe weather reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Data were combined on a common grid of 0.25° and 1-h steps over the period 1979–2018. The severity of convective hazards increases with increasing instability and wind shear (WMAXSHEAR), but climatological aspects of these features differ over both domains. Environments over the United States are characterized by higher moisture, CAPE, CIN, wind shear, and midtropospheric lapse rates. Conversely, 0–3-km CAPE and low-level lapse rates are higher over Europe. From the climatological perspective severe thunderstorm environments (hours) are around 3–4 times more frequent over the United States with peaks across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. Over Europe severe environments are the most common over the south with local maxima in northern Italy. Despite having lower CAPE (tail distribution of 3000–4000 J kg−1 compared to 6000–8000 J kg−1 over the United States), thunderstorms over Europe have a higher probability for convective initiation given a favorable environment. Conversely, the lowest probability for initiation is observed over the Great Plains, but, once a thunderstorm develops, the probability that it will become severe is much higher compared to Europe. Prime conditions for severe thunderstorms over the United States are between April and June, typically from 1200 to 2200 central standard time (CST), while across Europe favorable environments are observed from June to August, usually between 1400 and 2100 UTC.

scholarly journals Climatic Role of North American Low-Level Jets on U.S. Regional Tornado Activity

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (19) ◽  
pp. 6666-6683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott J. Weaver ◽  
Stephen Baxter ◽  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
North American ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
The United States ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Trend Pattern

Abstract Variability of springtime tornadic activity over the United States is assessed through the connectivity of preferred modes of North American low-level jet (NALLJ) variability to the local thermodynamic environment and remote SST variations. The link between regional tornado activity and NALLJ variability as diagnosed from a consistent reanalysis system (i.e., NCEP–NCAR) serves as dynamical corroboration in light of the inhomogeneous tornado database. The analysis reveals a multidecadal variation in the strength of the NALLJ–tornado connection, highlighted by tornado activity in the southern Great Plains region nearly doubling its correlation with NALLJ principal component 1 (PC 1) in recent decades. Locally, this is a result of a southward shift of NALLJ variability modes during the recent period. Motivated by these epochal shifts in NALLJ activity, a comparison of the early (1950–78) and late (1979–2010) tornado and NALLJ SST linkages indicates an Atlantic decadal SST variability influence during the early epoch, with Pacific decadal variability thereafter, highlighting the remote SST influence on the shifts in geographic placement and strength of NALLJ variability. The remote SST variability linkages further reveal that the observed global-scale SST trend pattern over the last 61 years may be contributing to a shift toward weaker tornadoes during spring in the northern Great Plains region. Tornado activity over the southeast region of the United States shows no such relationship to the SST trend pattern during spring, an immunity that is unexpected if spurious trends in the tornado database were influencing the SST linkage.

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