scholarly journals Analysis of Random Forest Modeling Strategies for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 5488
Author(s):  
Daniel Vassallo ◽  
Raghavendra Krishnamurthy ◽  
Thomas Sherman ◽  
Harindra J. S. Fernando
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement ◽  
Model Versus

Although the random forest (RF) model is a powerful machine learning tool that has been utilized in many wind speed/power forecasting studies, there has been no consensus on optimal RF modeling strategies. This study investigates three basic questions which aim to assist in the discernment and quantification of the effects of individual model properties, namely: (1) using a standalone RF model versus using RF as a correction mechanism for the persistence approach, (2) utilizing a recursive versus direct multi-step forecasting strategy, and (3) training data availability on model forecasting accuracy from one to six hours ahead. These questions are investigated utilizing data from the FINO1 offshore platform and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, and testing results are compared to the persistence method. At FINO1, due to the presence of multiple wind farms and high inter-annual variability, RF is more effective as an error-correction mechanism for the persistence approach. The direct forecasting strategy is seen to slightly outperform the recursive strategy, specifically for forecasts three or more steps ahead. Finally, increased data availability (up to ∼8 equivalent years of hourly training data) appears to continually improve forecasting accuracy, although changing environmental flow patterns have the potential to negate such improvement. We hope that the findings of this study will assist future researchers and industry professionals to construct accurate, reliable RF models for wind speed forecasting.

Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Variable Weight Combination Model of Neural Network and Grey Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 217-219 ◽  
pp. 2654-2657
Author(s):  
Jian Zhang ◽  
Lun Nong Tan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Weighting Coefficient ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Variable Weight ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

The wind speed forecasting accuracy of artificial neural network(ANN) and grey model(GM) is poorly satisfied. Thus, we proposed a new variable weight combined (VWC) model, which was based on the ANN and GM, to improve the wind speed forecasting accuracy. VWC used weighting coefficient of different time to fit the two single models. The forecasting accuracy of VWC is higher than either of the two single models, and is also higher than the unchanged weight combination(UWC) model. Our data show a new method for wind speed forecasting and the reduction of auxiliary service costs of wind farms.

scholarly journals A New Hybrid Approach for Wind Speed Forecasting Applying Support Vector Machine with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Cuckoo Search Algorithm

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 1754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tongxiang Liu ◽  
Shenzhong Liu ◽  
Jiani Heng ◽  
Yuyang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Cuckoo Search ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Cuckoo Search Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Proposed Model

Wind speed forecasting plays a crucial role in improving the efficiency of wind farms, and increases the competitive advantage of wind power in the global electricity market. Many forecasting models have been proposed, aiming to enhance the forecast performance. However, some traditional models used in our experiment have the drawback of ignoring the importance of data preprocessing and the necessity of parameter optimization, which often results in poor forecasting performance. Therefore, in order to achieve a more satisfying performance in forecasting wind speed data, a new short-term wind speed forecasting method which consists of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) for data preprocessing, and the Support Vector Machine (SVM)—whose key parameters are optimized by the Cuckoo Search Algorithm (CSO)—is developed in this paper. This method avoids the shortcomings of some traditional models and effectively enhances the forecasting ability. To test the prediction ability of the proposed model, 10 min wind speed data from wind farms in Shandong Province, China, are used for conducting experiments. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model cannot only improve the forecasting accuracy, but can also be an effective tool in assisting the management of wind power plants.

scholarly journals Doppler wind lidar activities at Cabauw

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Knoop ◽  
Fred Bosveld ◽  
Marijn de Haij ◽  
Arnoud Apituley
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Profile ◽  
Continuous Wave ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Horizontal Wind Speed ◽  
Low Clouds ◽  
Wind Measurements ◽  
Wind Lidar

<p>Atmospheric motion and turbulence are essential parameters for weather and topics related to air quality. Therefore, wind profile measurements play an important role in atmospheric research and meteorology. One source of wind profile data are Doppler wind lidars, which are laser-based remote sensing instruments that measure wind speed and wind direction up to a few hundred meters or even a few kilometers. Commercial wind lidars use the laser wavelength of 1.5 µm and therefore backscatter is mainly from aerosols while clear air backscatter is minimal, limiting the range to the boundary layer typically.</p><p>We have carried out a two-year intercomparison of the ZephIR 300M (ZX Lidars) short-range wind lidar and tall mast wind measurements at Cabauw [1]. We have focused on the (height-dependent) data availability of the wind lidar under various meteorological conditions and the data quality through a comparison with in situ wind measurements at several levels in the 213m tall meteorological mast. We have found an overall availability of quality-controlled wind lidar data of 97% to 98 %, where the missing part is mainly due to precipitation events exceeding 1 mm/h or fog or low clouds below 100 m. The mean bias in the horizontal wind speed is within 0.1 m/s with a high correlation between the mast and wind lidar measurements, although under some specific conditions (very high wind speed, fog or low clouds) larger deviations are observed. This instrument is being deployed within North Sea wind farms.</p><p>Recently, a scanning long-range wind lidar Windcube 200S (Leosphere/Vaisala) has been installed at Cabauw, as part of the Ruisdael Observatory program [2]. The scanning Doppler wind lidars will provide detailed measurements of the wind field, aerosols and clouds around the Cabauw site, in coordination with other instruments, such as the cloud radar.</p><p>[1] Knoop, S., Bosveld, F. C., de Haij, M. J., and Apituley, A.: A 2-year intercomparison of continuous-wave focusing wind lidar and tall mast wind measurements at Cabauw, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 2219–2235, 2021</p><p>[2] https://ruisdael-observatory.nl/</p>

scholarly journals A Hybrid Nonlinear Forecasting Strategy for Short-Term Wind Speed

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Haikun Wei ◽  
Chenxi Li ◽  
Kanjian Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
State Space ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Space Model ◽  
Wind Speeds

The ability to predict wind speeds is very important for the security and stability of wind farms and power system operations. Wind speeds typically vary slowly over time, which makes them difficult to forecast. In this study, a hybrid nonlinear estimation approach combining Gaussian process (GP) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to predict dynamic changes of wind speed and improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed approach can provide both point and interval predictions for wind speed. Firstly, the GP method is established as the nonlinear transition function of a state space model, and the covariance obtained from the GP predictive model is used as the process noise. Secondly, UKF is used to solve the state space model and update the initial prediction of short-term wind speed. The proposed hybrid approach can adjust dynamically in conjunction with the distribution changes. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid approach, the persistence model, GP model, autoregressive (AR) model, and AR integrated with Kalman filter (KF) model are used to predict the results for comparison. Taking two wind farms in China and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) database as the experimental data, the results show that the proposed hybrid approach is suitable for wind speed predictions, and that it can increase forecasting accuracy.

scholarly journals A New Wind Speed Forecasting Modeling Strategy Using Two-Stage Decomposition, Feature Selection and DAWNN

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sizhou Sun ◽  
Lisheng Wei ◽  
Jie Xu ◽  
Zhenni Jin
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Frequency Component ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Wind Speed Data ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Mode Decomposition

Accurate wind speed prediction plays a crucial role on the routine operational management of wind farms. However, the irregular characteristics of wind speed time series makes it hard to predict accurately. This study develops a novel forecasting strategy for multi-step wind speed forecasting (WSF) and illustrates its effectiveness. During the WSF process, a two-stage signal decomposition method combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is exploited to decompose the empirical wind speed data. The EEMD algorithm is firstly employed to disassemble wind speed data into several intrinsic mode function (IMFs) and one residual (Res). The highest frequency component, IMF1, obtained by EEMD is further disassembled into different modes by the VMD algorithm. Then, feature selection is applied to eliminate the illusive components in the input-matrix predetermined by partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and the parameters in the proposed wavelet neural network (WNN) model are optimized for improving the forecasting performance, which are realized by hybrid backtracking search optimization algorithm (HBSA) integrating binary-valued BSA (BBSA) with real-valued BSA (RBSA), simultaneously. Combinations of Morlet function and Mexican hat function by weighted coefficient are constructed as activation functions for WNN, namely DAWNN, to enhance its regression performance. In the end, the final WSF values are obtained by assembling the prediction results of each decomposed components. Two sets of actual wind speed data are applied to evaluate and analyze the proposed forecasting strategy. Forecasting results, comparisons, and analysis illustrate that the proposed EEMD/VMD-HSBA-DAWNN is an effective model when employed in multi-step WSF.

scholarly journals A Combined Model Based on Society Cognitive Optimization Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaoshuang He ◽  
Yanhua Chen ◽  
Min Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Cognitive Optimization

Abstract Wind energy, as renewable energy, has drawn the attention of society. The use of wind power generation can reduce the pollution to the environment and solve the problem of power shortage in offshore islands, grassland, pastoral areas, mountain areas, and highlands. Wind speed forecasting plays a significant role in wind farms. It can improve economic and social benefits and make an operation schedule for wind turbines in large wind farms. At present, researchers have proposed a variety of methods for wind speed forecasting; artificial neural network (ANN) is one of the most commonly used methods. This paper proposes a combined model based on the existing artificial neural network algorithms for wind speed forecasting at different heights. We first use the wavelet threshold method to the original wind speed data set for noise reduction. After that, the three artificial neural networks, extreme learning machine (ELM), Elman neural network, and Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM), are applied for wind speed forecasting. In addition, variance reciprocal method and society cognitive optimization algorithm (SCO) are used to optimize the weight coefficients of the combined model. In order to evaluate the forecasting performance of the combined model, we select wind speed data at three heights (20m, 50m, and 80m) in National Wind Technology Center M2 Tower. The experimental results show that the forecasting performance of the combined model is better than the single model, and it has a good forecasting performance for the wind speed at different heights.

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Information of Neighboring Wind Farms

IEEE Access ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 16760-16770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongju Wang ◽  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Chao Huang ◽  
Long Wang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting

scholarly journals A Novel System for Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Echo State Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianzhou Wang ◽  
Chunying Wu ◽  
Tong Niu
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Data Preprocessing ◽  
Multi Objective Optimization ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wind Power Systems

Given the rapid development and wide application of wind energy, reliable and stable wind speed forecasting is of great significance in keeping the stability and security of wind power systems. However, accurate wind speed forecasting remains a great challenge due to its inherent randomness and intermittency. Most previous researches merely devote to improving the forecasting accuracy or stability while ignoring the equal significance of improving the two aspects in application. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting system containing the modules of a modified data preprocessing, multi-objective optimization, forecasting, and evaluation to achieve the wind speed forecasting with high precision and stability. The modified data preprocessing method can obtain a smoother input by decomposing and reconstructing the original wind speed series in the module of data preprocessing. Further, echo state network optimized by a multi-objective optimization algorithm is developed as a predictor in the forecasting module. Finally, eight datasets with different features are used to validate the performance of the proposed system using the evaluation module. The mean absolute percentage errors of the proposed system are 3.1490%, 3.0051%, 3.0618%, and 2.6180% in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Moreover, the interval prediction is complemented to quantitatively characterize the uncertainty as developing intervals, and the mean average width is below 0.2 at the 95% confidence level. The results demonstrate the proposed forecasting system outperforms other comparative models considered from the forecasting accuracy and stability, which has great potential in the application of wind power systems.

The role of regimes in short-term wind speed forecasting at multiple wind farms

Stat ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 271-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Kazor ◽  
Amanda S. Hering
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document