scholarly journals How Strategic Behavior of Natural Gas Exporters Can Affect the Sectors of Electricity, Heating, and Emission Trading during the European Energy Transition

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 5040
Author(s):  
Sina Heidari

The European demand for natural gas imports may change through the energy transition, which may affect natural gas exporters’ strategic behavior and consequently the natural gas prices. Changes in natural gas prices in turn influence the European energy sector in terms of gas consumption in the short-term and investments in the long-term. The present paper develops a large-scale partial equilibrium market model formulated as a mixed complementarity model (MCP) with conjectural variations. This model considers the global natural gas market and the European markets of electricity, heating, and emission trading in one equilibrium. We apply this model to investigate the long-term impact of market power by gas exporters on the mentioned energy-related markets on the horizon of 2050. The results of the study show that a decrease in the market power by gas exporters decreases natural gas prices, leading to cheaper electricity and CO2 prices in the mid-term. However, a very tight emission cap in 2050 can result in the reverse phenomenon.

Author(s):  
David Chiaramonti ◽  
Anja Oasmaa ◽  
Yrjo¨ Solantausta

Biomass fast-pyrolysis oil (PO) is a liquid biofuel derived from lignocellulosic biomass: it offers several advantages compared to the direct us of solid bio fuels, such as high energy density, storability and transportability typical of liquid fuels, possibility to use the fuel in engines and turbines, easier downscaling of plants (which is a very important aspect for decentralized energy generation schemes). In addition, PO is the lowest cost biofuel, thus offering the possibility to penetrate also the large scale power generation market. Biomass POs have been studied and applications tested for many years, either for heat generation in medium-scale boilers or power generation. The present works reviews and analyses the most relevant experiences carried out so far and published results in power production from biomass PO. Power generation systems (PGS) which are here examined are gas turbines, diesel engines, stirling engines, as well as co-firing applications in large scale power plants (coal or natural gas plants). The main techniques for upgrading this biofuel and their impact on technologies are also shortly introduced and considered. The current status of development for each PO-based power generation option is discussed. This review work showed that long term demonstration (either technical or economical) is however still needed, even for the most developed technologies (use of PO in modified gas turbines and cofiring in natural gas stations): projects are on going to achieve long term demonstration.


Subject Shortages in Turkmenistan despite gas wealth. Significance Despite predictions of more than 6% growth, the Turkmen economy has been hard hit by the decline in natural gas prices since 2014. News of food running out in the shops and cash becoming less available suggests the government is not coping well. Turkmenistan only has one gas customer, China, and the revenues are going partly to offset debt. Impacts The government may have to solicit IMF advice and Russian assistance but will be reluctant to accept their terms. Turkey, a long-term commercial and political friend, may be the most appealing foreign partner. Any upsurge in conflict along the border with Afghanistan will alarm the government and prompt higher defence spending.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-65
Author(s):  
Muhammad Anas Pradipta

For so many times, Far East Asian liquid natural gas (LNG) buyers have been using price linked to crude oil-indexed, now they need to find another alternative pricing formula for their crucial energy supply as a better price structure that could reflect the market is needed. LNG spot price is expected to be the pillar for the future LNG trading, especially for Far East Asia Market. As less and less long-term contracts are signed in the Far East Asia Market, this creates an additional demand for the LNG in the spot market, while it raises some issues about the presence of different LNG pricing mechanisms. Most of the LNG spot prices in Asia are indexed to the relatively low natural gas prices in Atlantic Basin. Furthermore, the advancement of drilling technology in the US drives down its natural gas prices, resulting in price discrepancies between Asian LNG spot and East Asian LNG prices. This study investigates whether there is a price linkage between Asian LNG spot and East Asian LNG prices. This study comprehends 91 observations collected from January 2010 to July 2017. Johansen co-integration tests were carried out to examine the existence of long-run relationship on the spot, Japanese and South Korean LNG prices. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillip-Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) unit root tests were conducted first before proceeding to the co-integration tests. The results showed that Asian LNG spot prices did not have price linkage for monthly averages of Japanese and South Korean LNG prices. The analyses also indicated that Taiwan LNG markets move together with Asian LNG spot markets. As a conclusion, the results inferred that supply dependency on LNG spot cargoes governed the price linkage among these Asian LNG markets. The use of gas indexed LNG price mechanism did not reflect the economic fundamentals in Asia-Pacific Basin. JEL Classification: Q41Keywords: Price linkage, Johansen co-integration, augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillip-Perron, and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin, unit root tests, Far East Asian LNG spot prices, LNG spot and short-term cargoes, long-term contracts, spot prices, energy: demand and supply, prices


2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 494-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAYSON BECKMAN ◽  
STEPHANIE RICHE

AbstractThe biofuels era brought about changes to the energy and agricultural sectors. For example, the decrease in natural gas prices has led to a weakening of the relationship between fertilizer and gas prices. The other change has been an increase in the demand for fertilizers, which has strengthened the price relationship between these two products. Econometric evidence from this work indicates that after 2008 the relationship between fertilizers and corn prices increased. In addition, results from our work indicate the presence of market power in the ammonia fertilizer sector.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 390-405
Author(s):  
Jonathan Stern

The role of gases in the energy transition is a different, and much more immediate, issue in the EU, compared with other global regions. Net zero targets for 2050 mean that in order to retain the gas market and the extensive network infrastructure which has been developed, zero carbon gases will need to be developed, and natural gas (methane) will need to be decarbonized. Maximum availability of biomethane and hydrogen from power to gas is estimated at 100–150 billion cubic meters by 2050 (or around 25–30% of gas demand in the late 2010s. Therefore, large scale hydrogen production from reforming methane with carbon capture and storage (CCS), or pyrolysis, will be needed to maintain anything close to current demand levels. Costs of biomethane and hydrogen options are several times higher than prices of natural gas in 2019–2020. Significant financial support for decarbonization technologies — from governments and regulators — will therefore be needed in the 2020s, if they are to be available on a large scale in the 2030s and 2040s. If the EU gas community fails to advance convincing decarbonized narratives backed by investments which allow for commercialization of renewable gas and methane decarbonization technologies; and/or governments fail to create the necessary legal/fiscal and regulatory frameworks to support these technologies, then energy markets will progressively move away from gases and towards electrification.


Author(s):  
Jon C. Wilda ◽  
Mark C. Elizer

Despite recent experience in petroleum markets, future oil prices and availability are still major uncertainties that can have significant impact on energy users. Natural gas prices have also seen continual escalation. In COMCO’s coal-based alternative fuel development work, we have taken a long-term outlook, namely that the only sensible fuel strategy for utility and industrial users continues to be the increased utilization of coal. Coal slurry fuels, such as coal-oil mixtures and coal-water mixtures, represent a way for energy users with existing conventional fuel-fired equipment to increase coal utilization without replacing those facilities with costly new coal-fired systems. Paper published with permission.


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