scholarly journals Comparison of Electricity Spot Price Modelling and Risk Management Applications

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 4698
Author(s):  
Ethem Çanakoğlu ◽  
Esra Adıyeke
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Regime Switching Models ◽  
Switching Models

In dealing with sharp changes in electricity prices, contract planning is considered as a vital risk management tool for stakeholders in deregulated power markets. In this paper, dynamics of spot prices in Turkish electricity market are analyzed, and predictive performance of several models are compared, i.e., time series models and regime-switching models. Different models for derivative pricing are proposed, and alternative portfolio optimization problems using mean-variance optimization and conditional value at risk (CVaR) are solved. Expected payoff and risk structure for different hedging strategies for a hypothetical electricity company with a given demand are analyzed. Experimental studies show that regime-switching models are able to capture electricity characteristics better than their standard counterparts. In addition, evaluations with various risk management models demonstrate that those models are highly competent in providing an effective risk control practice for electricity markets.

Volatility Forecast by Volatility Index and Its Use as a Risk Management Tool Under a Value-at-Risk Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (02) ◽  
pp. 1850010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yam Wing Siu
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Pricing Options ◽  
Significance Levels ◽  
Risk Approach

This paper examines the predicting power of the volatility indexes of VIX and VHSI on the future volatilities (or called realized volatility, [Formula: see text] of their respective underlying indexes of S&P500 Index, SPX and Hang Seng Index, HSI. It is found that volatilities indexes of VIX and VHSI, on average, are numerically greater than the realized volatilities of SPX and HSI, respectively. Further analysis indicates that realized volatility, if used for pricing options, would, on some occasions, result in greatest losses of 2.21% and 1.91% of the spot price of SPX and HSI, respectively while the greatest profits are 2.56% and 2.93% of the spot price of SPX and HSI, respectively, making it not an ideal benchmark for validating volatility forecasting techniques in relation to option pricing. Hence, a new benchmark (fair volatility, [Formula: see text] that considers the premium of option and the cost of dynamic hedging the position is proposed accordingly. It reveals that, on average, options priced by volatility indexes contain a risk premium demanded by the option sellers. However, the options could, on some occasions, result in greatest losses of 4.85% and 3.60% of the spot price of SPX and HSI, respectively while the greatest profits are 4.60% and 5.49% of the spot price of SPX and HSI, respectively. Nevertheless, it can still be a valuable tool for risk management. [Formula: see text]-values of various significance levels for value-at-risk and conditional value-at-value have been statistically determined for US, Hong Kong, Australia, India, Japan and Korea markets.

LOCAL HEDGING OF VARIABLE ANNUITIES IN THE PRESENCE OF BASIS RISK

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (02) ◽  
pp. 611-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denis-Alexandre Trottier ◽  
Frédéric Godin ◽  
Emmanuel Hamel
Keyword(s):  
Regime Switching ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Optimization Criterion ◽  
Local Optimization ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Variable Annuities ◽  
Basis Risk ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Risk Metric

AbstractA method to hedge variable annuities in the presence of basis risk is developed. A regime-switching model is considered for the dynamics of market assets. The approach is based on a local optimization of risk and is therefore very tractable and flexible. The local optimization criterion is itself optimized to minimize capital requirements associated with the variable annuity policy, the latter being quantified by the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) risk metric. In comparison to benchmarks, our method is successful in simultaneously reducing capital requirements and increasing profitability. Indeed the proposed local hedging scheme benefits from a higher exposure to equity risk and from time diversification of risk to earn excess return and facilitate the accumulation of capital. A robust version of the hedging strategies addressing model risk and parameter uncertainty is also provided.

OPTIMAL ASSET ALLOCATION WITH STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATES IN REGIME-SWITCHING MODELS

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (05) ◽  
pp. 1850032 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. YE ◽  
R. H. LIU ◽  
D. REN
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Stochastic Interest Rates ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Regime Switching Models ◽  
Switching Models ◽  
Stochastic Interest ◽  
The Impact

This paper focuses on optimal asset allocation with stochastic interest rates in regime-switching models. A class of stochastic optimal control problems with Markovian regime-switching is formulated for which a verification theorem is provided. The theory is applied to solve two portfolio optimization problems (a portfolio of stock and savings account and a portfolio of mixed stock, bond and savings account) while a regime-switching Vasicek model is assumed for the interest rate. Closed-form solutions are obtained for a regime-switching power utility function. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the impact of regime-switching on the optimal investment decisions.

MENGELOLA RESIKO DENGAN PRODUK DERIVATIF

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dandes Rifa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Market Risks ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Operational Hedging ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
Derivative Products

The main objective of risk management is to minimize the potential for losses (risk) arising from unexpected changes in currency rates, credit, commodities and equities. One of the risks faced by companies is market risk (value at risk). This article aims to explain that risk management can be one of them by using derivative products. Derivative transactions is very useful for business people who want to hedge (hedging) against a commodity, which always experience price changes from time to time. There are three strategies that can be used to hedge the balance sheet hedging strategy, operational hedging strategies and contractual hedging strategies. Staregi contractual hedging is a form of protection that is done by forming a contractual hedging instruments in order to provide greater flexibility to managers in managing the potential risks faced by foreign currency. Most of these contractual hedging instrument in the form of derivative products. The management can enhance shareholder value by controlling risk. -Party investors and other interested parties hope that the financial manager is able to identify and manage market risks to be faced. If the value of the firm equals the present value of future cash flows, then risk management can be justified. 

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