scholarly journals A Methodology for Energy Load Profile Forecasting Based on Intelligent Clustering and Smoothing Techniques

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 4040
Author(s):  
Jamer Jiménez Mares ◽  
Loraine Navarro ◽  
Christian G. Quintero M. ◽  
Mauricio Pardo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
High Level ◽  
Energy Assets ◽  
Demand Changes

The electrical sector needs to study how energy demand changes to plan the maintenance and purchase of energy assets properly. Prediction studies for energy demand require a high level of reliability since a deviation in the forecasting demand could affect operation costs. This paper proposed a short-term forecasting energy demand methodology based on hierarchical clustering using Dynamic Time Warp as a similarity measure integrated with Artificial Neural Networks. Clustering was used to build the typical curve for each type of day, while Artificial Neural Networks handled the weather sensibility to correct a preliminary forecasting curve obtained in the clustering stage. A statistical analysis was carried out to identify those significant factors in the prediction model of energy demand. The performance of this proposed model was measured through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The experimental results show that the three-stage methodology was able to improve the MAPE, reaching values as good as 2%.

One-Day Wave Forecasts Based on Artificial Neural Networks

2006 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 1593-1603 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. N. Londhe ◽  
Vijay Panchang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Wave Models ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Modeling Strategy ◽  
High Level ◽  
Real Time Simulations

Abstract Sophisticated wave models like the Wave Model (WAM) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)/WAVEWATCH are used nowadays along with atmospheric models to produce forecasts of ocean wave conditions. These models are generally run operationally on large ocean-scale domains. In many coastal areas, on the other hand, operational forecasting is not performed for a variety of reasons, yet the need for wave forecasts remains. To address such cases, the production of forecasts through the use of artificial neural networks and buoy measurements is explored. A modeling strategy that predicts wave heights up to 24 h on the basis of judiciously selected measurements over the previous 7 days was examined. A detailed investigation of this strategy using data from six National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys with diverse geographical and statistical properties demonstrates that 6-h forecasts can be obtained with a high level of fidelity, and forecasts up to 12 h showed a correlation of 67% or better relative to a full year of data. One limitation observed was the inability of the artificial neural network model to correctly predict the magnitude of the highest waves; although the occurrence of high waves was predicted, the peaks were underestimated. The inclusion of several years of data and the judicious selection of the training set, especially the inclusion of extreme events, were shown to be crucial for the model to recognize interannual variability and provide more reliable forecasts. Real-time simulations performed for April 2005 demonstrate the efficiency of this technology for operational forecasting.

Prediction of Fracture Force of Weld Line Based on Artificial Neural Networks

2011 ◽  
Vol 314-316 ◽  
pp. 547-553
Author(s):  
Peng Fei Zhu ◽  
Xiao Fang Sun ◽  
Ying Jun Lu ◽  
Hai Tian Pan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Process Parameters ◽  
Weld Line ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Maximum Relative Error ◽  
Melt Temperature ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Fracture Force ◽  
Artificial Neural

A feed-forward three-layer neural network was proposed to predict the fracture force of injection-molded parts’ weld line. Firstly, the most significant process parameters which affect the fracture force of weld line were analyzed. Secondly, melt temperature, injection pressure, holding pressure and holding time were chosen as import variables and the fracture force of weld line was chosen as output variable to construct artificial neural networks. Furthermore, the performance of ANN was evaluated and tested by its application to verification tests with process parameters randomly selected which all of them were not used in the network training. Results showed that the ANN predictions yield mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in the range of 0.86％,and maximum relative error (MRE) in the range of 1.84％ for the test data set, and which can comparatively accurately reflect the influence relation of the injection process parameters on part’s quality index under the circumstance of data deficiencies.

Deploying artificial neural networks for modeling energy demand: international evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 285-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Bannor B. ◽  
Alex O. Acheampong
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Back Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Artificial Neural

Purpose This paper aims to use artificial neural networks to develop models for forecasting energy demand for Australia, China, France, India and the USA. Design/methodology/approach The study used quarterly data that span over the period of 1980Q1-2015Q4 to develop and validate the models. Eight input parameters were used for modeling the demand for energy. Hyperparameter optimization was performed to determine the ideal parameters for configuring each country’s model. To ensure stable forecasts, a repeated evaluation approach was used. After several iterations, the optimal models for each country were selected based on predefined criteria. A multi-layer perceptron with a back-propagation algorithm was used for building each model. Findings The results suggest that the validated models have developed high generalizing capabilities with insignificant forecasting deviations. The model for Australia, China, France, India and the USA attained high coefficients of determination of 0.981, 0.9837, 0.9425, 0.9137 and 0.9756, respectively. The results from the partial rank correlation coefficient further reveal that economic growth has the highest sensitivity weight on energy demand in Australia, France and the USA while industrialization has the highest sensitivity weight on energy demand in China. Trade openness has the highest sensitivity weight on energy demand in India. Originality/value This study incorporates other variables such as financial development, foreign direct investment, trade openness, industrialization and urbanization, which are found to have an important effect on energy demand in the model to prevent underestimation of the actual energy demand. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most influential variables. The study further deploys the models for hands-on predictions of energy demand.

scholarly journals An Estimation of Transport Energy Demand in Turkey via Artificial Neural Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammed Yasin Çodur ◽  
Ahmet Ünal
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Artificial Neural

The transportation sector accounts for nearly 19% of total energy consumption in Turkey, where energy demand increases rapidly depending on the economic and human population growth and the increasing number of motor vehicles. Hence, the estimation of future energy demand is of great importance to design, plan and use the transportation systems more efficiently, for which a reliable quantitative estimation is of primary concern. However, the estimation of transport energy demand is a complex task, since various model parameters are interacting with each other. In this study, artificial neural networks were used to estimate the energy demand in transportation sector in Turkey. Gross domestic product, oil prices, population, vehicle-km, ton-km and passenger-km were selected as parameters by considering the data for the period from 1975 to 2016. Seven models in total were created and analyzed. The best yielding model with the parameters of oil price, population and motor vehicle-km was determined to have the lowest error and the highest R2 values. This model was selected to estimate transport energy demand for the years 2020, 2023, 2025 and 2030.

Use of Artificial Neural Networks and Arima to Forecasting Consumption Sawnwood of Pinus sp. in Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.A. Buratto ◽  
R. Timofeiczyk Junior ◽  
J.C.G.L. Silva ◽  
J.R. Frega ◽  
M.S.S.A. Wiecheteck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural

The objective of this study was to analyze the application of an artificial neural networks model and an ARIMA model to predict the consumption of sawnwood of pine. For this, we use real and secondary data collected and obtained from a historical data source, corresponding to the period from 1997 to 2016, which were later tested to generate the forecast models. Based on economic and statistical criteria, six explanatory variables were used to fit the best model. The choice of the model was made based on Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Theil U metric, Percentage Error of Forecast and Akaike value information criterion. The results indicated that the models generated through the ARIMA model presented better performance when compared to the artificial neural network. The best adjusted model estimated a reduction of 1.33% in consumption of sawnwood of pine in Brazil for the period between 2017 and 2020.

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