scholarly journals Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Improved CEEMDAN, SCA, and RVFL: A Case Study in WTI Oil Market

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiang Wu ◽  
Feng Miu ◽  
Taiyong Li
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Functional Link ◽  
Intrinsic Factors ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Predicted Values

Crude oil is one of the strategic energies and plays an increasingly critical role effecting on the world economic development. The fluctuations of crude oil prices are caused by various extrinsic and intrinsic factors and usually demonstrate complex characteristics. Therefore, it is a great challenge for accurately forecasting crude oil prices. In this study, a self-optimizing ensemble learning model incorporating the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN), sine cosine algorithm (SCA), and random vector functional link (RVFL) neural network, namely ICEEMDAN-SCA-RVFL, is proposed to forecast crude oil prices. Firstly, we employ ICEEMDAN to decompose the raw series of crude oil prices into a group of relatively simple subseries. Secondly, RVFL is used to forecast the target values for each decomposed subseries individually. Due to the complex parameter settings of ICEEMDAN and RVFL, SCA is introduced to optimize the parameters for ICEEMDAN and RVFL in the above decomposition and prediction stages simultaneously. Finally, we assemble the predicted values of all individual subseries as the final predicted values of crude oil prices. Our proposed ICEEMDAN-SCA-RVFL significantly outperforms the single and ensemble benchmark models, as demonstrated by a case study conducted using the time series of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) daily crude oil spot prices.

scholarly journals Forecasting Crude Oil Prices Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Sparse Bayesian Learning

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taiyong Li ◽  
Zhenda Hu ◽  
Yanchi Jia ◽  
Jiang Wu ◽  
Yingrui Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Bayesian Learning ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Sparse Bayesian Learning ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Model Confidence Set

Crude oil is one of the most important types of energy and its prices have a great impact on the global economy. Therefore, forecasting crude oil prices accurately is an essential task for investors, governments, enterprises and even researchers. However, due to the extreme nonlinearity and nonstationarity of crude oil prices, it is a challenging task for the traditional methodologies of time series forecasting to handle it. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a novel approach that incorporates ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), and addition, namely EEMD-SBL-ADD, for forecasting crude oil prices, following the “decomposition and ensemble” framework that is widely used in time series analysis. Specifically, EEMD is first used to decompose the raw crude oil price data into components, including several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residue. Then, we apply SBL to build an individual forecasting model for each component. Finally, the individual forecasting results are aggregated as the final forecasting price by simple addition. To validate the performance of the proposed EEMD-SBL-ADD, we use the publicly-available West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil spot prices as experimental data. The experimental results demonstrate that the EEMD-SBL-ADD outperforms some state-of-the-art forecasting methodologies in terms of several evaluation criteria such as the mean absolute percent error (MAPE), the root mean squared error (RMSE), the directional statistic (Dstat), the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test, the model confidence set (MCS) test and running time, indicating that the proposed EEMD-SBL-ADD is promising for forecasting crude oil prices.

scholarly journals CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECASTING BY CEEMDAN BASED HYBRID MODEL OF ARIMA AND KALMAN FILTER

2018 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aamir ◽  
Ani Shabri ◽  
Muhammad Ishaq
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Original Time

This paper used complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) based hybrid model for the forecasting of world crude oil prices. For this purpose, the crude oil prices original time series are decomposed into sub small finite series called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Then ARIMA model was applied to each extracted IMF to estimate the parameters. Next, using these estimated parameters of each ARIMA model, the Kalman Filter was run for each IMF, so that these extracted IMFs can be predicted more accurately. Finally, all IMFs are combined to get the result. For testing and verification of the proposed method, two crude oil prices were used as a sample i.e. Brent and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil monthly prices series. The D-statistic values of the proposed model were 93.33% for Brent and 89.29% for WTI which reveals the importance of the CEEMDAN based hybrid model.

scholarly journals Forecasting Daily Crude Oil Prices Using Improved CEEMDAN and Ridge Regression-Based Predictors

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 3603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taiyong Li ◽  
Yingrui Zhou ◽  
Xinsheng Li ◽  
Jiang Wu ◽  
Ting He
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Ridge Regression ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

As one of the leading types of energy, crude oil plays a crucial role in the global economy. Understanding the movement of crude oil prices is very attractive for producers, consumers and even researchers. However, due to its complex features of nonlinearity and nonstationarity, it is a very challenging task to accurately forecasting crude oil prices. Inspired by the well-known framework “decomposition and ensemble” in signal processing and/or time series forecasting, we propose a new approach that integrates the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN), differential evolution (DE) and several types of ridge regression (RR), namely, ICEEMDAN-DE-RR, for more accurate crude oil price forecasting in this paper. The proposed approach consists of three steps. First, we use the ICEEMDAN to decompose the complex daily crude oil price series into several relatively simple components. Second, ridge regression or kernel ridge regression is employed to forecast each decomposed component. To enhance the accuracy of ridge regression, DE is used to jointly optimize the regularization item, the weights and parameters of each single kernel for each component. Finally, the predicted results of all components are aggregated as the final predicted results. The publicly available West Texas Intermediate (WTI) daily crude oil spot prices are used to validate the performance of the proposed approach. The experimental results indicate that the proposed approach can achieve better performance than some state-of-the-art approaches in terms of several evaluation criteria, demonstrating that the proposed ICEEMDAN-DE-RR is very promising for daily crude oil price forecasting.

scholarly journals An Adaptive Hybrid Learning Paradigm Integrating CEEMD, ARIMA and SBL for Crude Oil Price Forecasting

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiang Wu ◽  
Yu Chen ◽  
Tengfei Zhou ◽  
Taiyong Li
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Accurate Prediction ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Learning Paradigm ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Target Values

Crude oil is one of the main energy sources and its prices have gained increasing attention due to its important role in the world economy. Accurate prediction of crude oil prices is an important issue not only for ordinary investors, but also for the whole society. To achieve the accurate prediction of nonstationary and nonlinear crude oil price time series, an adaptive hybrid ensemble learning paradigm integrating complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), namely CEEMD-ARIMA&SBL-SBL (CEEMD-A&S-SBL), is developed in this study. Firstly, the decomposition method CEEMD, which can reduce the end effects and mode mixing, was employed to decompose the original crude oil price time series into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residue. Then, ARIMA and SBL with combined kernels were applied to predict target values for the residue and each single IMF independently. Finally, the predicted values of the above two models for each component were adaptively selected based on the training precision, and then aggregated as the final forecasting results using SBL without kernel-tricks. Experiments were conducted on the crude oil spot prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil to evaluate the performance of the proposed CEEMD-A&S-SBL. The experimental results demonstrated that, compared with some state-of-the-art prediction models, CEEMD-A&S-SBL can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of crude oil prices in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute percent error (MAPE), and the directional statistic (Dstat).

scholarly journals A CEEMDAN and XGBOOST-Based Approach to Forecast Crude Oil Prices

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingrui Zhou ◽  
Taiyong Li ◽  
Jiayi Shi ◽  
Zijie Qian
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Crude oil is one of the most important types of energy for the global economy, and hence it is very attractive to understand the movement of crude oil prices. However, the sequences of crude oil prices usually show some characteristics of nonstationarity and nonlinearity, making it very challenging for accurate forecasting crude oil prices. To cope with this issue, in this paper, we propose a novel approach that integrates complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST), so-called CEEMDAN-XGBOOST, for forecasting crude oil prices. Firstly, we use CEEMDAN to decompose the nonstationary and nonlinear sequences of crude oil prices into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residue. Secondly, XGBOOST is used to predict each IMF and the residue individually. Finally, the corresponding prediction results of each IMF and the residue are aggregated as the final forecasting results. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach, we conduct extensive experiments on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices. The experimental results show that the proposed CEEMDAN-XGBOOST outperforms some state-of-the-art models in terms of several evaluation metrics.

scholarly journals Crude oil price prediction using CEEMDAN and LSTM-attention with news sentiment index

2021 ◽  
Vol 76 ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Zhenda Hu
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Attention Mechanism ◽  
Scientific Model ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
News Sentiment

Crude oil is one of the most powerful types of energy and the fluctuation of its price influences the global economy. Therefore, building a scientific model to accurately predict the price of crude oil is significant for investors, governments and researchers. However, the nonlinearity and nonstationarity of crude oil prices make it a challenging task for forecasting time series accurately. To handle the issue, this paper proposed a novel forecasting approach for crude oil prices that combines Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with attention mechanism and addition, following the well-known “decomposition and ensemble” framework. In addition, a news sentiment index based on Chinese crude oil news texts was constructed and added to the prediction of crude oil prices. And we made full use of attention mechanism to better integrate price series and sentiment series according to the characteristics of each component. To validate the performance of the proposed CEEMDAN-LSTM_att-ADD, we selected the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the Diebold-Mariano (DM) statistic as evaluation criterias. Abundant experiments were conducted on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot crude oil prices. The proposed approach outperformed several state-of-the-art methods for forecasting crude oil prices, which proved the effectiveness of the CEEMDAN-LSTM_att-ADD with the news sentiment index.

An Empirical Investigation of Factors Affecting Stock Prices in Vietnam

2014 ◽  
pp. 74-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinh Vo Xuan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Before And After

This paper investigates factors affecting Vietnam’s stock prices including US stock prices, foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices. Using the daily data from 2005 to 2012, the results indicate that Vietnam’s stock prices are influenced by crude oil prices. In addition, Vietnam’s stock prices are also affected significantly by US stock prices, and foreign exchange rates over the period before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. There is evidence that Vietnam’s stock prices are highly correlated with US stock prices, foreign exchange rates and gold prices for the same period. Furthermore, Vietnam’s stock prices were cointegrated with US stock prices both before and after the crisis, and with foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices only during and after the crisis.

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil and Stock Prices in India: Before And After the Subprime Financial Crisis 2008

GIS Business ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 96-104
Author(s):  
P. Sakthivel ◽  
S. Rajaswaminathan ◽  
R. Renuka ◽  
N. R.Vembu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Energy Index ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After

This paper empirically discovered the inter-linkages between stock and crude oil prices before and after the subprime financial crisis 2008 by using Johansan co-integration and Granger causality techniques to explore both long and short- run relationships.  The whole data set of Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex, BSE energy index and oil prices are divided into two periods; before crisis (from February 15, 2005 to December31, 2007) and after crisis (from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2018) are collected and analyzed. The results discovered that there is one-way causal relationship from crude oil prices to Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex and BSE energy index but not other way around in both periods. However, a bidirectional causality relationship between BSE Energy index and crude oil prices during post subprime financial crisis 2008. The co-integration results suggested that the absence of long run relationship between crude oil prices and market indices of BSE Sensex, BSE energy index, Nifty index and Nifty energy index before and after subprime financial crisis 2008.

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