scholarly journals Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shining Zhang ◽  
Fang Yang ◽  
Changyi Liu ◽  
Xing Chen ◽  
Xin Tan ◽  
...  

The industrial sector dominates the global energy consumption and carbon emissions in end use sectors, and it faces challenges in emission reductions to reach the Paris Agreement goals. This paper analyzes and quantifies the relationship between industrialization, energy systems, and carbon emissions. Firstly, it forecasts the global and regional industrialization trends under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway2 (SSP2) scenarios. Then, it projects the global and regional energy consumption that aligns with the industrialization trend, and optimizes the global energy supply system using the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) model for the industrial sector. Moreover, it develops an expanded Kaya identity to comprehensively investigate the drivers of industrial carbon emissions. In addition, it employs a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to track the historical contributions of various drivers of carbon emissions, as well as predictions into the future. This paper finds that economic development and population growth are the two largest drivers for historical industrial CO2 emissions, and that carbon intensity and industry energy intensity are the top two drivers for the decrease of future industrial CO2 emissions. Finally, it proposes three modes, i.e., clean supply, electrification, and energy efficiency for industrial emission reduction.

Author(s):  
Irina V. Provornaya ◽  

The paper analyzes the development of oil and gas supplies to the world market. The structure of oil and gas imports and exports is revealed. It is shown that taking into account the annual growth of global energy consumption, there is an increase in the supply of carbohydrates. The modern global energy supply system is highly international in nature.


2014 ◽  
Vol 675-677 ◽  
pp. 1865-1868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Li ◽  
Lin Wu

LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) was used to estimates the carbon emission of industrial energy consumption in Hunan Province with collected data on industrial energy consumption in 2000-2012. The results showed that carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption present the overall upward trend in Hubei Province, where the carbon emissions of coal consumption are the main factors, this shows that the industry of Hubei is extensive development withhigh energy consumption. In addition, industrial carbon intensity has a fluctuated downward trend in 2011-2012; this shows that Hubei province has made ​​a positive change on control carbon emissions of energy consumption.


2014 ◽  
Vol 694 ◽  
pp. 528-531
Author(s):  
Jin Gui Yue ◽  
Yuan Jun Yu ◽  
Lin Wu

Hunan province energy consumption carbon emissions based on the industrial structure was analyzed with carbon emissions factor method in 2000-2012. Results show that Hunan province’s carbon emissions have a rapid growth in 2000-2012. Since 2007 the growth of carbon intensity is slowly, and there is an emergence of signs of decline. Recently the correlation between the growth of GDP and carbon emissions in Hunan Province becomes weakening, but carbon intensity is still higher. Industry occupies a dominant position in the energy consumption carbon emissions. Since 2007 the proportion of industrial carbon emissions is decreased form 79.41% to 72.30% in 2012, there is an obvious decline. Recently, the growth rate of industrial carbon emissions is relative lower. The growth of carbon emissions from the construction industry and the tertiary industry is the most obvious. Relevant policies should be formulated as soon as possible, to promote the level of construction technology, control energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit of output.


Author(s):  
Vadym Danylets

The article attempts to analyze the American strategy for maintaining the status quo in the global energy supply system, as well as to reveal the main causes of the destruction of this system. At this stage, there is a sharp increase in the interdependence of politics and energetics as well as their merger. Therefore, one of the main messages of the article is the thesis that oil and related issues were at the center of the US Middle East foreign policy. It was determined that the main components of the US strategy were maintaining access to oil resources in the Middle East and strengthening their positions in the region, which was stipulated by the factor of intersystem confrontation. The doctrinal foundations of the American oil strategy in the region were determined. The evolution of political processes in the Middle East, which led to the destruction of the foundations of the global energy supply system, was examined. It is shown how dynamic changes in international politics and the world economy influenced the transformation of American politics in the Middle East with elements of balancing between the countries of the region, for which oil and energetics, in general, have become the main factor in foreign policy. It was the study of political and economic processes in their dynamics that allowed the author to highlight critical moments in international politics and economics. Important place in the article is devoted to the activities of American oil companies, their economic relations with the governments of the Middle East countries, which became the subject of political confrontation between these countries and the U.S. Based on the given facts, it was established that the US policy to maintain the status quo in the Middle East had been actually stopped in the early 1970s. Instead, it was not formed the clear long term course of foreign policy, which could provide the interests of the USA and its allies in the field of economics and energetics.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3165
Author(s):  
Eva Litavcová ◽  
Jana Chovancová

The aim of this study is to examine the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics and causal relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in 14 Danube region countries over the period of 1990–2019. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology was applied for each of the examined variables as a dependent variable. Limited by the length of the time series, we excluded two countries from the analysis and obtained valid results for the others for 26 of 36 ARDL models. The ARDL bounds reliably confirmed long-run cointegration between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Economic growth and energy consumption have a significant impact on carbon emissions in the long-run in all of these four countries; in the short-run, the impact of economic growth is significant in Austria. Likewise, when examining cointegration between energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in the short-run, a significant contribution of CO2 emissions on energy consumptions for seven countries was found as a result of nine valid models. The results contribute to the information base essential for making responsible and informed decisions by policymakers and other stakeholders in individual countries. Moreover, they can serve as a platform for mutual cooperation and cohesion among countries in this region.


2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiromi Yamamoto ◽  
Kenji Yamaji

The uses of fossil fuels cause not only the resources exhaustion but also the environmental problems such as global warming. The purposes of this study are to evaluate paths to ward sustainable energy systems and roles of each renewable. In order to realize the purposes, the authors developed the global land use and energy model that figured the global energy supply systems in the future considering the cost minimization. Using the model the authors conducted a simulation in C30R scenario, which is a kind of strict CO2 emission limit scenarios and reduced CO2 emissions by 30% compared with Kyoto protocol forever scenario, and obtained the following results. In C30R scenario bio energy will supply 33% of all the primary energy consumption. How ever, wind and photo voltaic will supply 1.8% and 1.4% of all the primary energy consumption, respectively, because of the limits of power grid stability. The results imply that the strict limits of CO2 emissions are not sufficient to achieve the complete renewable energy systems. In order to use wind and photo voltaic as major energy resources we need not only to reduce the plant costs but also to develop unconventional renewable technologies. .


2012 ◽  
Vol 260-261 ◽  
pp. 1052-1056
Author(s):  
Wei Yang Yu ◽  
Hui Ning Zhao

This paper calculates carbon emissions in Hebei Province based on energy consumption and carbon coefficients and adopts the index decomposition model to analyze the influence of value-added industries and carbon emissions per unit added value on carbon emissions.The results indicate that the increase of value-added industries in Hebei Province is the main factor affecting the growth of carbon emissions, but the decrease of carbon emissions per unit added value induces carbon emissions to a lesser reducing. The conclusions can offer the decision basis for reducing carbon emissions.


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