scholarly journals A Spatial Statistic Based Risk Assessment Approach to Prioritize the Pipeline Inspection of the Pipeline Network

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Hou ◽  
Xiaojian Yi ◽  
Haiping Dong

The identification of high risk regions is an important aim of risk-based inspections (RBIs) in pipeline networks. As the most vital part of risk-based inspections, risk assessment makes a significant contribution to achieving this aim. Accurate assessment can target high risk inspected regions so that limited resources can mitigate considerable risks in the face of increased spatial distribution of a pipeline network. However, the existing approaches for risk assessment face grave challenges due to a lack of sufficient data and an assessment’s vulnerability to human biases and errors. This paper attempts to tackle those challenges through spatial statistics, which is used to estimate the uncertainty of risk based on a dataset of locations of pipeline network failure events without having to acquire additional data. The consequence of risk in each inspected region is measured by the total cost caused by the failure events that have occurred in the region, which is also calculated in the assessment. Then, the risks of the different inspected regions are obtained by integrating the uncertainty and consequences. Finally, the feasibility of our approach is validated in a case study. Our results in the case study demonstrate that uncertainty is less instructive for prioritizing pipeline inspections than the consequences of risk due to the low significant difference in risk uncertainty in different regions. Our results also have implications for understanding the correlation between the spatial location and consequences of risk.

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1512
Author(s):  
Xiaojian Yi ◽  
Peng Hou ◽  
Haiping Dong

In the face of increased spatial distribution and a limited budget, monitoring critical regions of pipeline network is looked upon as an important part of condition monitoring through wireless sensor networks. To achieve this aim, it is necessary to target critical deployed regions rather than the available deployed ones. Unfortunately, the existing approaches face grave challenges due to the vulnerability of identification to human biases and errors. Here, we have proposed a novel approach to determine the criticality of different deployed regions by ranking them based on risk. The probability of occurrence of the failure event in each deployed region is estimated by spatial statistics to measure the uncertainty of risk. The severity of risk consequence is measured for each deployed region based on the total cost caused by failure events. At the same time, hypothesis testing is used before the application of the proposed approach. By validating the availability of the proposed approach, it provides a strong credible basis and the falsifiability for the analytical conclusion. Finally, a case study is used to validate the feasibility of our approach to identify the critical regions. The results of the case study have implications for understanding the spatial heterogeneity of the occurrence of failure in a pipeline network. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of risk uncertainty is a useful priori knowledge on how to guide the random deployment of wireless sensors, rather than adopting the simple assumption that each sensor has an equal likelihood of being deployed at any location.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
David G. Dodge ◽  
Anna M. Engel ◽  
Robyn L. Prueitt ◽  
Michael K. Peterson ◽  
Julie E. Goodman

Author(s):  
Gencer Erdogan ◽  
Phu H. Nguyen ◽  
Fredrik Seehusen ◽  
Ketil Stølen ◽  
Jon Hofstad ◽  
...  

Risk-driven testing and test-driven risk assessment are two strongly related approaches, though the latter is less explored. This chapter presents an evaluation of a test-driven security risk assessment approach to assess how useful testing is for validating and correcting security risk models. Based on the guidelines for case study research, two industrial case studies were analyzed: a multilingual financial web application and a mobile financial application. In both case studies, the testing yielded new information, which was not found in the risk assessment phase. In the first case study, new vulnerabilities were found that resulted in an update of the likelihood values of threat scenarios and risks in the risk model. New vulnerabilities were also identified and added to the risk model in the second case study. These updates led to more accurate risk models, which indicate that the testing was indeed useful for validating and correcting the risk models.


Author(s):  
Emad Mohamed ◽  
Nima Gerami Seresht ◽  
Stephen Hague ◽  
Adam Chehouri ◽  
Simaan M. AbouRizk

Although many quantitative risk assessment models have been proposed in literature, their use in construction practice remain limited due to a lack of domain-specific models, tools, and application examples. This is especially true in wind farm construction, where the state-of-the-art integrated Monte Carlo simulation and critical path method (MCS-CPM) risk assessment approach has yet to be demonstrated. The present case study is the first reported application of the MCS-CPM method for risk assessment in wind farm construction and is the first case study to consider correlations between cost and schedule impacts of risk factors using copulas. MCS-CPM provided reasonable risk assessment results for a wind farm project, and its use in practice is recommended. Aimed at facilitating the practical application of quantitative risk assessment methods, this case study provides a much-needed analytical generalization of MCS-CPM, offering application examples, discussion of expected results, and recommendations to wind farm construction practitioners.


2014 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 261-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Béchaux ◽  
Marco Zeilmaker ◽  
Mathilde Merlo ◽  
Bas Bokkers ◽  
Amélie Crépet

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilead Shenhar ◽  
Irina Radomislensky ◽  
Michael Rosenfeld ◽  
Kobi Peleg

AbstractBackgroundAn earthquake of 9.0 magnitude, followed by a tsunami, hit Japan in 2011 causing widespread destruction. Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant had been damaged, causing a spread of radioactive materials.ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to assess personal willingness to respond to a disaster as a part of an international delegation, to an area with unknown and unclear risk of radioactive materials. The Israeli delegation to the Japan 2011 earthquake had been chosen as a case study.MethodThe survey was conducted during the first two weeks after the tsunami in Japan. The population was selected randomly. After distributing the survey form, 94 anonymous answers were received, which give a 69% participation rate. The sample was divided into two groups (participated or didn't participate in an international delegation in the past).ResultsIt was found that as the situation on the ground became worse, the willingness to be deployed dropped dramatically, although no significant difference was found in willingness between the two study groups. When both groups were combined into one group, significant differences were found in their willingness to be deployed in a delegation between the three levels (no radioactive leak, possible radioactive leak, and uncontrolled leak).ConclusionsThe willingness to serve on a delegation that responds to a scene with a potential radioactive leak will be dramatically influenced by the risk at the site.ShenharG, RadomislenskyI, RosenfeldM, PelegK. Willingness of international delegations to be deployed to areas with high risk of radiation. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2014;29(4):1-5.


2005 ◽  
Vol 168 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 187-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Saponaro ◽  
Elena Sezenna ◽  
Luca Bonomo

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