scholarly journals A New Hybrid Short-Term Interval Forecasting of PV Output Power Based on EEMD-SE-RVM

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sen Wang ◽  
Yonghui Sun ◽  
Yan Zhou ◽  
Rabea Jamil Mahfoud ◽  
Dongchen Hou
Keyword(s):  
Output Power ◽  
Engineering Application ◽  
Relevance Vector Machine ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Point Forecast

The main characteristics of the photovoltaic (PV) output power are the randomness and uncertainty, such features make it not easy to establish an accurate forecasting method. The accurate short-term forecasting of PV output power has great significance for the stability, safe operation and economic dispatch of the power grid. The deterministic point forecast method ignores the randomness and volatility of PV output power. Aiming at overcoming those defects, this paper proposes a novel hybrid model for short-term PV output power interval forecasting based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) as well as relevance vector machine (RVM). Firstly, the EEMD is used to decompose the PV output power sequences into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residual (RES) components. After that, based on the decomposed components, the sample entropy (SE) algorithm is utilized to reconstruct those components where three new components with typical characteristics are obtained. Then, by implementing RVM, the forecasting model for every component is developed. Finally, the forecasting results of every new component are superimposed in order to achieve the overall forecasting results with certain confidence level. Simulation results demonstrate, by comparing them with some previous methods, that the hybrid method based on EEMD-SE-RVM has relatively higher forecasting accuracy, more reliable forecasting interval and high engineering application value.

scholarly journals The Short-Term Forecasting of Asymmetry Photovoltaic Power Based on the Feature Extraction of PV Power and SVM Algorithm

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1777
Author(s):  
Lishu Wang ◽  
Yanhui Liu ◽  
Tianshu Li ◽  
Xinze Xie ◽  
Chengming Chang
Keyword(s):  
Power Output ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Modified Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

To improve forecasting accuracy for photovoltaic (PV) power output, this paper proposes a hybrid method for forecasting the short-term PV power output. First, by introducing the noise level, an improved complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) is developed to determine the ensemble size and amplitude of the added white noise adaptively. ICEEMDAN can change PV power output with non-symmetry into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with symmetry. ICEEMDAN can enhance the forecasting accuracy for PV power by IMFs with physical meaning (not including spurious modes). Second, the selection method of relative modes (IF), which is determined by the comprehensive factor, including the shape factor, crest factor and Kurtosis, is introduced to adaptively classify the IMFs into groups including similar fluctuating components. The IF can avoid the drawbacks of threshold determination by an empirical method. Third, the modified particle swarm optimization (PSO) (MPSO) is proposed to optimize the hyper-parameters in the support vector machine (SVM) by introducing the piecewise inertial weight. MPSO can improve the global and local search ability to make the particles traverse the global space and strengthen the performance of local convergence. Finally, the proposed method (ICEEMDAN-IF-MPSO-SVM) is used to forecast the PV power output of each group individually, and then, the single forecasting result is reconstructed to obtain the desired forecasting result for PV power output. By comparison with the other typical methods, the proposed method is more suitable for forecasting PV power output.

scholarly journals Scenario-based prediction of short-term river stage–discharge process using wavelet-EEMD-based relevance vector machine

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiyoumars Roushangar ◽  
Farhad Alizadeh
Keyword(s):  
River Discharge ◽  
Relevance Vector Machine ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Discharge Process ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
River Stage ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Input Dataset ◽  
Meta Learning

Abstract In this study, daily river stage–discharge relationship was predicted using different modeling scenarios. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) algorithm and wavelet transform (WT) were used as hybrid pre-processing approach. In the WT-EEMD approach, first temporal features were decomposed using WT. Furthermore, the decomposed sub-series were further broken down into intrinsic mode functions via EEMD to obtain features with higher stationary properties. Mutual information was used to select dominant sub-series and determine efficient input dataset. Relevance vector machine (RVM) was applied to forecast river discharge. Three scenarios were developed to predict river stage–discharge process. First, a successive-station form of forecasting was proposed by incorporating geomorphological features into the modeling process. Subsequently, an integrated RVM (I-RVM) was trained based on the concept of the cascade of reservoirs and the meta-learning approach. The proposed I-RVM had the semi-distributed characteristics of the river discharge model. Finally, a multivariate RVM was trained to predict discharge for different points of the river. For this reason Westhope station's features were used as input to predict discharge at downstream of the river. Results were compared with rating curve and capability of proposed models were approved in prediction of short-term river stage–discharge.

Spatiotemporal Trend and Variability of Precipitation in Taiwan Based on Multi-dimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Hsiang Tang ◽  
Christina W. Tsai
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Spatial Locality ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Climatic Scenarios

<p>Abstract</p><p>Most of the time series in nature are nonlinear and nonstationary affected by climate change particularly. It is inevitable that Taiwan has also experienced frequent drought events in recent years. However, drought events are natural disasters with no clear warnings and their influences are cumulative. The difficulty of detecting and analyzing the drought phenomenon remains. To deal with the above-mentioned problem, Multi-dimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) is introduced to analyze the temperature and rainfall data from 1975~2018 in this study, which is a powerful method developed for the time-frequency analysis of nonlinear, nonstationary time series. This method can not only analyze the spatial locality and temporal locality of signals but also decompose the multiple-dimensional time series into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). By the set of IMFs, the meaningful instantaneous frequency and the trend of the signals can be observed. Considering stochastic and deterministic influences, to enhance the accuracy this study also reconstruct IMFs into two components, stochastic and deterministic, by the coefficient of auto-correlation.</p><p>In this study, the influences of temperature and precipitation on the drought events will be discussed. Furthermore, to decrease the significant impact of drought events, this study also attempts to forecast the occurrences of drought events in the short-term via the Artificial Neural Network technique. And, based on the CMIP5 model, this study also investigates the trend and variability of drought events and warming in different climatic scenarios.</p><p> </p><p>Keywords: Multi-dimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD), Intrinsic Mode Function(IMF), Drought</p>

Chatter Detection in Milling Process Based on Time-Frequency Analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng-Kun Liu ◽  
Quang M. Tran ◽  
Yi-Wen Qui ◽  
Chun-Hui Chung
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Milling Process ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Function ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Machined Surface ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Mode Function ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Stability

Chatter identification is necessary in order to achieve stable machining conditions. However, the linear approximation in regenerative chatter vibration is problematic because of the rich nonlinear characteristics in machining. In this study, a novel method to detect chatter is proposed. Firstly, measured cutting force signals are decomposed into a set of intrinsic mode functions by using ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Hilbert transform is following to extract the instantaneous frequency. Fast Fourier transform is also utilized for each intrinsic mode function to determine the intrinsic mode function that contains rich chatter. Finally, the standard deviation and energy ratio in frequency domain of intrinsic mode functions are found as simply dimensionless chatter indicators. The effectively proposed approach is validated by analyzing the machined surface topography and also compared to the stability lobe diagram.

scholarly journals Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting by Employing Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 460-477
Author(s):  
Sajjad Khan ◽  
Shahzad Aslam ◽  
Iqra Mustafa ◽  
Sheraz Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Electricity Price Forecasting ◽  
Learning Machine

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting plays a critical role in balancing energy consumption and generation, optimizing the decisions of electricity market participants, formulating energy trading strategies, and dispatching independent system operators. Despite the fact that much research on price forecasting has been published in recent years, it remains a difficult task because of the challenging nature of electricity prices that includes seasonality, sharp fluctuations in price, and high volatility. This study presents a three-stage short-term electricity price forecasting model by employing ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and extreme learning machine (ELM). In the proposed model, the EEMD is employed to decompose the actual price signals to overcome the non-linear and non-stationary components in the electricity price data. Then, a day-ahead forecasting is performed using the ELM model. We conduct several experiments on real-time data obtained from three different states of the electricity market in Australia, i.e., Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. We also implement various deep learning approaches as benchmark methods, i.e., recurrent neural network, multi-layer perception, support vector machine, and ELM. In order to affirm the performance of our proposed and benchmark approaches, this study performs several performance evaluation metric, including the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test. The results from the experiments show the productiveness of our developed model (in terms of higher accuracy) over its counterparts.

Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Based Deep Learning Model for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.M. González-Sopeña
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Power Forecasting

Abstract. In the last few years, wind power forecasting has established itself as an essential tool in the energy industry due to the increase of wind power penetration in the electric grid. This paper presents a wind power forecasting method based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and deep learning. EEMD is employed to decompose wind power time series data into several intrinsic mode functions and a residual component. Afterwards, every intrinsic mode function is trained by means of a CNN-LSTM architecture. Finally, wind power forecast is obtained by adding the prediction of every component. Compared to the benchmark model, the proposed approach provides more accurate predictions for several time horizons. Furthermore, prediction intervals are modelled using quantile regression.

scholarly journals Fault Diagnosis for Analog Circuits by Using EEMD, Relative Entropy, and ELM

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Xiong ◽  
Shulin Tian ◽  
Chenglin Yang
Keyword(s):  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Relative Entropy ◽  
Analog Circuits ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Diagnosis Method ◽  
Eemd Method ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Elm Classifier

This paper presents a novel fault diagnosis method for analog circuits using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), relative entropy, and extreme learning machine (ELM). First, nominal and faulty response waveforms of a circuit are measured, respectively, and then are decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with the EEMD method. Second, through comparing the nominal IMFs with the faulty IMFs, kurtosis and relative entropy are calculated for each IMF. Next, a feature vector is obtained for each faulty circuit. Finally, an ELM classifier is trained with these feature vectors for fault diagnosis. Via validating with two benchmark circuits, results show that the proposed method is applicable for analog fault diagnosis with acceptable levels of accuracy and time cost.

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