scholarly journals Study on Selecting the Optimal Algorithm and the Effective Methodology to ANN-Based Short-Term Load Forecasting Model for the Southern Power Company in Vietnam

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manh-Hai Pham ◽  
T-A-Tho Vu ◽  
Duc-Quang Nguyen ◽  
Viet-Hung Dang ◽  
Ngoc-Trung Nguyen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Algorithm ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Optimal Algorithms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Large Power ◽  
Power Company ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Daily Load

Recently, power companies apply optimal algorithms for short-term load forecasting, especially the daily load. However, in Vietnam, the load forecasting of the power system has not focused on this solution. Optimal algorithms and can help experts improve forecasting results including accuracy and the time required for forecasting. To achieve both goals, the combinations of different algorithms are still being studied. This article describes research using a new combination of two optimal algorithms: Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). This combination limits the weakness of the convergence speed of GA as well as the weakness of PSO that it easily falls into local optima (thereby reducing accuracy). This new hybrid algorithm was applied to the Southern Power Corporation’s (SPC—a large Power company in Vietnam) daily load forecasting. The results show the algorithm’s potential to provide a solution. The most accurate result was for the forecasting of a normal working day with an average error of 1.15% while the largest error was 3.74% and the smallest was 0.02%. For holidays and weekends, the average error always approximated the allowable limit of 3%. On the other hand, some poor results also provide an opportunity to re-check the real data provided by SPC.

A Method Based on Wavelet Neural Network for Power System Short Term Load Forecasting

2014 ◽  
Vol 521 ◽  
pp. 303-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Mei Zhong ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
Qi Fang Chen ◽  
Nian Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Power System ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Wavelet Neural Network ◽  
Signal Spectrum ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Load Sequence ◽  
Daily Load

The short-term load of Power System is uncertain and the daily-load signal spectrum is continuous. The approach of Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) is proposed by combing the wavelet transform (WT) and neural network. By the WT, the time-based short-term load sequence can be decomposed into different scales sequences, which is used to training the BP neural network. The short-term load is forecasted by the trained BP neural network. Select the load of a random day in Lianyungang to study, according to the numerical simulation results, the method proves to achieve good performances.

scholarly journals Analysis of Different Neural Networks and a New Architecture for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lintao Yang ◽  
Honggeng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Electric System ◽  
Power Company ◽  
Network Methods ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Electric Power Company

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) has been widely studied because it plays a very important role in improving the economy and security of electric system operations. Many types of neural networks have been successfully used for STLF. In most of these methods, common neural networks were used, but without a systematic comparative analysis. In this paper, we first compare the most frequently used neural networks’ performance on the load dataset from the State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company (China). Then, considering the current neural networks’ disadvantages, we propose a new architecture called a gate-recurrent neural network (RNN) based on an RNN for STLF. By evaluating all the methods on our dataset, the results demonstrate that the performance of different neural network methods are related to the data time scale, and our proposed method is more accurate on a much shorter time scale, particularly when the time scale is smaller than 20 min.

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Adaptive Annealing Learning Algorithm Based Reinforcement Neural Network

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng-Ming Lee ◽  
Chia-Nan Ko
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Initial Structure ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power Company ◽  
Learning Rates ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

A reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) in this article. The proposed model integrates radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector regression (SVR), and adaptive annealing learning algorithm (AALA). In the proposed methodology, firstly, the initial structure of RBFNN is determined by using SVR. Then, an AALA with time-varying learning rates is used to optimize the initial parameters of SVR-RBFNN (AALA-SVR-RBFNN). In order to overcome the stagnation for searching optimal RBFNN, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) is applied to simultaneously find promising learning rates in AALA. Finally, the short-term load demands are predicted by using the optimal RBFNN. The performance of the proposed methodology is verified on the actual load dataset from Taiwan Power Company (TPC). Simulation results reveal that the proposed AALA-SVR-RBFNN can achieve a better load forecasting precision as compared to various RBFNNs.

scholarly journals Short-term load forecasting using Theta method

2019 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 01004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Dudek
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Cycles ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Data Definition ◽  
System Data ◽  
Theta Method

The Theta method attracted the attention of researchers and practitioners in recent years due to its simplicity and superior forecasting accuracy. Its performance has been confirmed by many empirical studies as well as forecasting competitions. In this article the Theta method is tested in short-term load forecasting problem. The load time series expressing multiple seasonal cycles is decomposed in different ways to simplify the forecasting problem. Four variants of input data definition are considered. The standard Theta method is uses as well as the dynamic optimised Theta model proposed recently. The performances of the Theta models are demonstrated through an empirical application using real power system data and compared with other popular forecasting methods.

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