scholarly journals Data Driven Natural Gas Spot Price Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Methods

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moting Su ◽  
Zongyi Zhang ◽  
Ye Zhu ◽  
Donglan Zha ◽  
Wenying Wen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Gas Price

Natural gas has been proposed as a solution to increase the security of energy supply and reduce environmental pollution around the world. Being able to forecast natural gas price benefits various stakeholders and has become a very valuable tool for all market participants in competitive natural gas markets. Machine learning algorithms have gradually become popular tools for natural gas price forecasting. In this paper, we investigate data-driven predictive models for natural gas price forecasting based on common machine learning tools, i.e., artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), gradient boosting machines (GBM), and Gaussian process regression (GPR). We harness the method of cross-validation for model training and monthly Henry Hub natural gas spot price data from January 2001 to October 2018 for evaluation. Results show that these four machine learning methods have different performance in predicting natural gas prices. However, overall ANN reveals better prediction performance compared with SVM, GBM, and GPR.

scholarly journals Forecasting Natural Gas Spot Prices with Machine Learning

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5782
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Mouchtaris ◽  
Emmanouil Sofianos ◽  
Periklis Gogas ◽  
Theophilos Papadimitriou
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

The ability to accurately forecast the spot price of natural gas benefits stakeholders and is a valuable tool for all market participants in the competitive gas market. In this paper, we attempt to forecast the natural gas spot price 1, 3, 5, and 10 days ahead using machine learning methods: support vector machines (SVM), regression trees, linear regression, Gaussian process regression (GPR), and ensemble of trees. These models are trained with a set of 21 explanatory variables in a 5-fold cross-validation scheme with 90% of the dataset used for training and the remaining 10% used for testing the out-of-sample generalization ability. The results show that these machine learning methods all have different forecasting accuracy for every time frame when it comes to forecasting natural gas spot prices. However, the bagged trees (belonging to the ensemble of trees method) and the linear SVM models have superior forecasting performance compared to the rest of the models.

scholarly journals MODIS-FIRMS and ground-truthing based wildfire likelihood mapping of Sikkim Himalaya using machine learning algorithms.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polash Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Tree Cover ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Sikkim Himalaya ◽  
Environmental Features ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

Abstract Wildfires in limited extent and intensity can be a boon for the forest ecosystem. However, recent episodes of wildfires of 2019 in Australia and Brazil are sad reminders of their heavy ecological and economical costs. Understanding the role of environmental factors in the likelihood of wildfires in a spatial context would be instrumental in mitigating it. In this study, 14 environmental features encompassing meteorological, topographical, ecological, in situ and anthropogenic factors have been considered for preparing the wildfire likelihood map of Sikkim Himalaya. A comparative study on the efficiency of machine learning methods like Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Model (GBM) has been performed to identify the best performing algorithm in wildfire prediction. The study indicates that all the machine learning methods are good at predicting wildfires. However, RF has outperformed, followed by GBM in the prediction. Also, environmental features like average temperature, average wind speed, proximity to roadways and tree cover percentage are the most important determinants of wildfires in Sikkim Himalaya. This study can be considered as a decision support tool for preparedness, efficient resource allocation and sensitization of people towards mitigation of wildfires in Sikkim.

scholarly journals Landslide susceptibility mapping using machine learning for Wenchuan County, Sichuan province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 198 ◽  
pp. 03023
Author(s):  
Xin Yang ◽  
Rui Liu ◽  
Luyao Li ◽  
Mei Yang ◽  
Yuantao Yang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Boosted Decision Tree

Landslide susceptibility mapping is a method used to assess the probability and spatial distribution of landslide occurrences. Machine learning methods have been widely used in landslide susceptibility in recent years. In this paper, six popular machine learning algorithms namely logistic regression, multi-layer perceptron, random forests, support vector machine, Adaboost, and gradient boosted decision tree were leveraged to construct landslide susceptibility models with a total of 1365 landslide points and 14 predisposing factors. Subsequently, the landslide susceptibility maps (LSM) were generated by the trained models. LSM shows the main landslide zone is concentrated in the southeastern area of Wenchuan County. The result of ROC curve analysis shows that all models fitted the training datasets and achieved satisfactory results on validation datasets. The results of this paper reveal that machine learning methods are feasible to build robust landslide susceptibility models.

scholarly journals Predicting rice blast disease: machine learning versus process-based models

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David F. Nettleton ◽  
Dimitrios Katsantonis ◽  
Argyris Kalaitzidis ◽  
Natasa Sarafijanovic-Djukic ◽  
Pau Puigdollers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Rice Blast ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Rice Blast Disease ◽  
Blast Disease ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Plant Disease Management ◽  
Process Based Models

Abstract Background In this study, we compared four models for predicting rice blast disease, two operational process-based models (Yoshino and Water Accounting Rice Model (WARM)) and two approaches based on machine learning algorithms (M5Rules and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN)), the former inducing a rule-based model and the latter building a neural network. In situ telemetry is important to obtain quality in-field data for predictive models and this was a key aspect of the RICE-GUARD project on which this study is based. According to the authors, this is the first time process-based and machine learning modelling approaches for supporting plant disease management are compared. Results Results clearly showed that the models succeeded in providing a warning of rice blast onset and presence, thus representing suitable solutions for preventive remedial actions targeting the mitigation of yield losses and the reduction of fungicide use. All methods gave significant “signals” during the “early warning” period, with a similar level of performance. M5Rules and WARM gave the maximum average normalized scores of 0.80 and 0.77, respectively, whereas Yoshino gave the best score for one site (Kalochori 2015). The best average values of r and r2 and %MAE (Mean Absolute Error) for the machine learning models were 0.70, 0.50 and 0.75, respectively and for the process-based models the corresponding values were 0.59, 0.40 and 0.82. Thus it has been found that the ML models are competitive with the process-based models. This result has relevant implications for the operational use of the models, since most of the available studies are limited to the analysis of the relationship between the model outputs and the incidence of rice blast. Results also showed that machine learning methods approximated the performances of two process-based models used for years in operational contexts. Conclusions Process-based and data-driven models can be used to provide early warnings to anticipate rice blast and detect its presence, thus supporting fungicide applications. Data-driven models derived from machine learning methods are a viable alternative to process-based approaches and – in cases when training datasets are available – offer a potentially greater adaptability to new contexts.

scholarly journals APPLICATION OF MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS FOR PROCESSING COMMENTS FROM THE YOUTUBE VIDEO HOSTING UNDER TRAINING VIDEOS

2021 ◽  
pp. 33-42
Author(s):  
L. S. Koriashkina ◽  
H. V. Symonets
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Gradient Descent ◽  
Russian Language ◽  
Stochastic Gradient ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Stochastic Gradient Descent ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Gradient Enhancement

Purpose. Detecting toxic comments on YouTube video hosting under training videos by classifying unstructured text using a combination of machine learning methods. Methodology. To work with the specified type of data, machine learning methods were used for cleaning, normalizing, and presenting textual data in a form acceptable for processing on a computer. Directly to classify comments as “toxic”, we used a logistic regression classifier, a linear support vector classification method without and with a learning method – stochastic gradient descent, a random forest classifier and a gradient enhancement classifier. In order to assess the work of the classifiers, the methods of calculating the matrix of errors, accuracy, completeness and F-measure were used. For a more generalized assessment, a cross-validation method was used. Python programming language. Findings. Based on the assessment indicators, the most optimal methods were selected – support vector machine (Linear SVM), without and with the training method using stochastic gradient descent. The described technologies can be used to analyze the textual comments under any training videos to detect toxic reviews. Also, the approach can be useful for identifying unwanted or even aggressive information on social networks or services where reviews are provided. Originality. It consists in a combination of methods for preprocessing a specific type of text, taking into account such features as the possibility of having a timecode, emoji, links, and the like, as well as in the adaptation of classification methods of machine learning for the analysis of Russian-language comments. Practical value. It is about optimizing (simplification) the comment analysis process. The need for this processing is due to the growing volumes of text data, especially in the field of education through quarantine conditions and the transition to distance learning. The volume of educational Internet content already needs to automate the processing and analysis of feedback, over time this need will only grow.

scholarly journals Hydraulic Flow Unit Classification and Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study from the Nam Con Son Basin, Offshore Vietnam

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 7714
Author(s):  
Ha Quang Man ◽  
Doan Huy Hien ◽  
Kieu Duy Thong ◽  
Bui Viet Dung ◽  
Nguyen Minh Hoa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Flow Unit ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Log Data ◽  
Hydraulic Flow ◽  
Core Data ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

The test study area is the Miocene reservoir of Nam Con Son Basin, offshore Vietnam. In the study we used unsupervised learning to automatically cluster hydraulic flow units (HU) based on flow zone indicators (FZI) in a core plug dataset. Then we applied supervised learning to predict HU by combining core and well log data. We tested several machine learning algorithms. In the first phase, we derived hydraulic flow unit clustering of porosity and permeability of core data using unsupervised machine learning methods such as Ward’s, K mean, Self-Organize Map (SOM) and Fuzzy C mean (FCM). Then we applied supervised machine learning methods including Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Boosted Tree (BT) and Random Forest (RF). We combined both core and log data to predict HU logs for the full well section of the wells without core data. We used four wells with six logs (GR, DT, NPHI, LLD, LSS and RHOB) and 578 cores from the Miocene reservoir to train, validate and test the data. Our goal was to show that the correct combination of cores and well logs data would provide reservoir engineers with a tool for HU classification and estimation of permeability in a continuous geological profile. Our research showed that machine learning effectively boosts the prediction of permeability, reduces uncertainty in reservoir modeling, and improves project economics.

Using Machine Learning Methods To Identify Coal Pay Zones from Drilling and Logging-While-Drilling (LWD) Data

SPE Journal ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (03) ◽  
pp. 1241-1258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruizhi Zhong ◽  
Raymond L. Johnson ◽  
Zhongwei Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Well Completion ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Logging While Drilling

Summary Accurate coal identification is critical in coal seam gas (CSG) (also known as coalbed methane or CBM) developments because it determines well completion design and directly affects gas production. Density logging using radioactive source tools is the primary tool for coal identification, adding well trips to condition the hole and additional well costs for logging runs. In this paper, machine learning methods are applied to identify coals from drilling and logging-while-drilling (LWD) data to reduce overall well costs. Machine learning algorithms include logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The precision, recall, and F1 score are used as evaluation metrics. Because coal identification is an imbalanced data problem, the performance on the minority class (i.e., coals) is limited. To enhance the performance on coal prediction, two data manipulation techniques [naive random oversampling (NROS) technique and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE)] are separately coupled with machine learning algorithms. Case studies are performed with data from six wells in the Surat Basin, Australia. For the first set of experiments (single-well experiments), both the training data and test data are in the same well. The machine learning methods can identify coal pay zones for sections with poor or missing logs. It is found that rate of penetration (ROP) is the most important feature. The second set of experiments (multiple-well experiments) uses the training data from multiple nearby wells, which can predict coal pay zones in a new well. The most important feature is gamma ray. After placing slotted casings, all wells have coal identification rates greater than 90%, and three wells have coal identification rates greater than 99%. This indicates that machine learning methods (either XGBoost or ANN/RF with NROS/SMOTE) can be an effective way to identify coal pay zones and reduce coring or logging costs in CSG developments.

scholarly journals Result and Performance Analysis of Rainfall Prediction System Based on Deep Neural Network

2020 ◽  
pp. 633-638
Author(s):  
Akshay Rajendra Naik ◽  
A. V. Deorankar ◽  
P. B. Ambhore
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Vector Machines ◽  
And Performance

Rainfall prediction is useful for all people for decision making in all fields, such as out door gamming, farming, traveling, and factory and for other activities. We studied various methods for rainfall prediction such as machine learning and neural networks. There is various machine learning algorithms are used in previous existing methods such as naïve byes, support vector machines, random forest, decision trees, and ensemble learning methods. We used deep neural network for rainfall prediction, and for optimization of deep neural network Adam optimizer is used for setting modal parameters, as a result our method gives better results as compare to other machine learning methods.

Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods for Prediction of Multiphase Production Rates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton Gryzlov ◽  
Liliya Mironova ◽  
Sergey Safonov ◽  
Muhammad Arsalan
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Continuous Production ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Flow Metering ◽  
Production Monitoring

Abstract Multiphase flow metering is an important tool for production monitoring and optimization. Although there are many technologies available on the market, the existing multiphase meters are only accurate to a certain extend and generally are expensive to purchase and maintain. Virtual flow metering (VFM) is a low-cost alternative to conventional production monitoring tools, which relies on mathematical modelling rather than the use of hardware instrumentation. Supported by the availability of the data from different sensors and production history, the development of different virtual flow metering systems has become a focal point for many companies. This paper discusses the importance of flow modelling for virtual flow metering. In addition, main data-driven algorithms are introduced for the analysis of several dynamic production data sets. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) together with advanced machine learning methods such as GRU and XGBoost have been considered as possible candidates for virtual flow metering. The obtained results indicate that the machine learning algorithms estimate oil, gas and water rates with acceptable accuracy. The feasibility of the data-driven virtual metering approach for continuous production monitoring purposes has been demonstrated via a series of simulation-based cases. Amongst the used algorithms the deep learning methods provided the most accurate results combined with reasonable time for model training.

A Very Large-Scale Bioactivity Comparison of Deep Learning and Multiple Machine Learning Algorithms for Drug Discovery

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas R. Lane ◽  
Daniel H. Foil ◽  
Eni Minerali ◽  
Fabio Urbina ◽  
Kimberley M. Zorn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Drug Discovery ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

<p>Machine learning methods are attracting considerable attention from the pharmaceutical industry for use in drug discovery and applications beyond. In recent studies we have applied multiple machine learning algorithms, modeling metrics and in some cases compared molecular descriptors to build models for individual targets or properties on a relatively small scale. Several research groups have used large numbers of datasets from public databases such as ChEMBL in order to evaluate machine learning methods of interest to them. The largest of these types of studies used on the order of 1400 datasets. We have now extracted well over 5000 datasets from CHEMBL for use with the ECFP6 fingerprint and comparison of our proprietary software Assay Central<sup>TM</sup> with random forest, k-Nearest Neighbors, support vector classification, naïve Bayesian, AdaBoosted decision trees, and deep neural networks (3 levels). Model performance <a>was</a> assessed using an array of five-fold cross-validation metrics including area-under-the-curve, F1 score, Cohen’s kappa and Matthews correlation coefficient. <a>Based on ranked normalized scores for the metrics or datasets all methods appeared comparable while the distance from the top indicated Assay Central<sup>TM</sup> and support vector classification were comparable. </a>Unlike prior studies which have placed considerable emphasis on deep neural networks (deep learning), no advantage was seen in this case where minimal tuning was performed of any of the methods. If anything, Assay Central<sup>TM</sup> may have been at a slight advantage as the activity cutoff for each of the over 5000 datasets representing over 570,000 unique compounds was based on Assay Central<sup>TM</sup>performance, but support vector classification seems to be a strong competitor. We also apply Assay Central<sup>TM</sup> to prospective predictions for PXR and hERG to further validate these models. This work currently appears to be the largest comparison of machine learning algorithms to date. Future studies will likely evaluate additional databases, descriptors and algorithms, as well as further refining methods for evaluating and comparing models. </p><p><b> </b></p>

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