scholarly journals Short-Term Forecasting of Total Energy Consumption for India-A Black Box Based Approach

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Habeebur Rahman ◽  
Iniyan Selvarasan ◽  
Jahitha Begum A
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Energy Planning ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Expert Model ◽  
Per Capita

Continual energy availability is one of the prime inputs requisite for the persistent growth of any country. This becomes even more important for a country like India, which is one of the rapidly developing economies. Therefore electrical energy’s short-term demand forecasting is an essential step in the process of energy planning. The intent of this article is to predict the Total Electricity Consumption (TEC) in industry, agriculture, domestic, commercial, traction railways and other sectors of India for 2030. The methodology includes the familiar black-box approaches for forecasting namely multiple linear regression (MLR), simple regression model (SRM) along with correlation, exponential smoothing, Holt’s, Brown’s and expert model with the input variables population, GDP and GDP per capita using the software used are IBM SPSS Statistics 20 and Microsoft Excel 1997–2003 Worksheet. The input factors namely GDP, population and GDP per capita were taken into consideration. Analyses were also carried out to find the important variables influencing the energy consumption pattern. Several models such as Brown’s model, Holt’s model, Expert model and damped trend model were analysed. The TEC for the years 2019, 2024 and 2030 were forecasted to be 1,162,453 MW, 1,442,410 MW and 1,778,358 MW respectively. When compared with Population, GDP per capita, it is concluded that GDP foresees TEC better. The forecasting of total electricity consumption for the year 2030–2031 for India is found to be 1834349 MW. Therefore energy planning of a country relies heavily upon precise proper demand forecasting. Precise forecasting is one of the major challenges to manage in the energy sector of any nation. Moreover forecasts are important for the effective formulation of energy laws and policies in order to conserve the natural resources, protect the ecosystem, promote the nation’s economy and protect the health and safety of the society.

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth: New evidence from Greece

2021 ◽  
pp. 131-153
Author(s):  
Antonia Gkergki
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Research ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth from 1968 to 2019 in Greece, by employing the vector error-correction model estimation. A series of econometric tests are employed concerning the stationary of the data, and the co-integration and the relationship among the variables during the long- and short-term. The em-pirical results suggest that there is no bidirectional relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. More specifically, GDP per capita does not affect the energy consump-tion of the three primary sources either in the long-term or the short-term. In other words, the economic crisis and its implications for GDP do not affect energy consumption, and they are not responsible for the considerable decrease in energy sources' consumption. On the other hand, the energy consumption of oil and coal negatively affect the GDP per capita. These re-sults are different from previous studies' conclusions for Greece; this is because the never been experienced before. These findings raise new research questions and also show the limi-tations of the Greek market, as it is regulated and controlled by the government.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Dependence of GHG Emissions on the Support and Taxes in the EU Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7650
Author(s):  
Astrida Miceikienė ◽  
Kristina Gesevičienė ◽  
Daiva Rimkuvienė
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Support ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Support Measures ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Eu

The reduction of GHG emissions is one of the priorities of the EU countries. The majority of studies show that financial support and environmental taxes are one of the most effective measures for the mitigation of the negative consequences of climate change. The EU countries employ different environmental support measures and environmental taxes to reduce GHG emissions. There is a shortage of new studies on these measures. The aim of the present study is to compare the effectiveness of the environmental support measures of the EU countries with the effectiveness of environmental taxes in relation to the reduction of GHG emissions. This study is characterized by the broad scope of its data analysis and its systematic approach to the EU’s environmental policy measures. An empirical study was performed for the EU countries with the aim of addressing this research problem and substantiating theoretical insights. A total of 27 EU member states from 2009 to 2018 were selected as research samples. The research is based on a cause-and-effect relationship, where the factors affecting environmental pollution (environmental taxes and subsidies) are the cause, and GHG emissions are the effect. Statistical research methods were used in the empirical study: descriptive statistics, the Shapiro–Wilk test, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), simple regression and cluster analysis. The results show that the older member countries of the EU, which had directed the financial measures of environmental policy towards a reduction in energy consumption, managed to achieve a greater reduction in GHG emissions compared to the countries which had not applied those measures. The Central and Eastern European countries are characterized by lower environmental taxes and lower expenditure allocated to environmental protection. The countries with a higher GDP per capita have greater GHG emissions that the countries with lower GDP per capita. This is associated with greater consumption, waste, and energy consumption. The study conducted gives rise to a discussion regarding data sufficiency in the assessment and forecasting of GHG emissions and their environmental consequences.

scholarly journals Causality and Stationarity with Structural Break in Electricity Consumption and GDP per capita in Mexico

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 725-744
Author(s):  
Vicente German-Soto
Keyword(s):  
Structural Break ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

La electricidad es clave en la mayoría de los procesos de producción, por tanto, entender causalidad, cointegración y estacionariedad entre consumo de electricidad y producción es un punto de partida en el debate de sus efectos económicos. Modelos de corrección de errores (VECM) y cointegración, junto a pruebas de estacionariedad, examinan esta relación en México durante 1940-2018. Los resultados apoyan esta hipótesis, pero después de considerar el cambio estructural subrayado por la apertura comercial, ya que causalidad, estacionariedad y cointegración solo pueden demostrarse dividiendo el periodo en 1985, fecha de quiebre estimada para producto per cápita. En la primera etapa, la causalidad corrió de electricidad a producto, mientras que en la segunda fue bidireccional. Se recomienda adaptar los programas de electricidad a cambios en la esfera política. La originalidad de esta contribución descansa en el análisis de largo plazo del sector de energía enfatizando la importancia de quiebres estructurales. A pesar de alguna sensibilidad al ejecutar las regresiones, las conclusiones recomiendan fortalecer el sector de energía como medio factible de recuperar el crecimiento sostenido que México alcanzó en otros tiempos.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Investment Efficiency of China’s Provincial Power Grid Enterprises under New Electricity Market Reform: Empirical Evidence Based on Three-Stage DEA Model

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 3524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingqi Sun ◽  
Nuermaimaiti Ruze ◽  
Jianjun Zhang ◽  
Haoran Zhao ◽  
Boyang Shen
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Power Grid ◽  
External Environment ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Market Reform ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Scale Efficiency ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Environment Variables ◽  
Per Capita

The new round of electricity market reform in 2015 completely changed the profit pattern of power grid enterprises (PGEs) in China, and directly affected their investment plans. Under the new electricity market reform (NEMR), the government regulatory authority made higher requirements for the investment efficiency of PGEs, and the investment effectiveness hence became the core criterion for investment plans. Therefore, the PGEs are now attaching great importance to the investment efficiency. According to their geographical differences, this paper divides the Chinese provincial PGEs into three groups, namely eastern, central and western region enterprises. Based on the NEMR, we developed an evaluation system of investment efficiency for the above-mentioned enterprises. Moreover, this paper selects GDP per capita, electricity consumption in industry, and electrification rate as external environment variables, and conducts an empirical research on the investment efficiency of 31 provincial PGEs in China in 2017. The analysis reveals that three external environment variables have considerable impacts on the investment efficiency. Though the increase of GDP per capita and electricity consumption in industry are not conducive to improving investment efficiency, the advancement of electrification plays a positive role in its improvement. And from the real efficiency results, Tianjin, Liaoning, Jiangsu, and Fujian have relatively higher investment efficiency, while Henan, Shandong, and Shanghai exhibit lower investment efficiency. By comparing the investment efficiency of PGEs in the first and third stage, conclusions can be drawn that in the first stage the investment efficiency of PGEs was overestimated, and the inefficient investments prevailed some provincial PGEs, which caused by low scale efficiency.

Energy consumption flow and regional economic development: evidence from 25 economies

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bao-jun Tang ◽  
Pi-qin Gong ◽  
Yu-chong Xiao ◽  
Huai-yu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Regional Economic Development ◽  
Embodied Energy ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose This paper aims to figure out the relationship between energy consumption flow from a new perspective of embodied energy inventory index (EEII) and regional economic growth. Design/methodology/approach The input-output approach has been applied to calculate embodied energy inventory (EEI) and EEII using the data of 25 economies. Meanwhile, cluster analysis and panel data modeling were applied to carry out detailed research. Findings The results of cluster analysis show that there is a roughly negative relationship between EEII and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, although there are some exceptions, such as Russia and Taiwan (Province of China). Panel data model results provide further evidence that there is a negative relationship between EEII and GDP per capita. Population is an important productive factor in the regional economic development. The study showed a positive relationship between EEII and population. Therefore, energy consumption flow is closely related to regional economic development. Originality/value The value of this paper is to use EEI and EEII to comprehensively clarify the energy consumption flow. The advantage of EEII is that it can reflect the energy embodied in fixed assets and infrastructure.

scholarly journals Dynamic linkages between renewable energy, carbon emissions and economic growth through nonlinear ARDL approach: Evidence from Iran

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0253464
Author(s):  
M. S. Karimi ◽  
S. Ahmad ◽  
H. Karamelikli ◽  
D. T. Dinç ◽  
Y. A. Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita

This study examines the relationship between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Iran between 1975–2017, and the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the asymmetric method was used in this study. The results reveal that in the long run increase in renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions causes an increase in real GDP per capita. Meanwhile, the decrease in renewable energy has the same effect, but GDP per capita reacts more strongly to the rise in renewable energy than the decline. Besides, in the long run, a reduction of CO2 emissions has an insignificant impact on GDP per capita. Furthermore, the results from asymmetric tests suggest that reducing CO2 emissions and renewable energy consumption do not have an essential role in decreasing growth in the short run. In contrast, an increase in renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions do contribute to boosting the growth. These results may be attributable to the less renewable energy in the energy portfolio of Iran. Additionally, the coefficients on capital and labor are statistically significant, and we discuss the economic implications of the results and propose specific policy recommendations.

scholarly journals A Review of Economic and Environment Indicators and Energy Efficiency: Evidence from the EU and Serbia

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 459-477
Author(s):  
Sandra Jednak ◽  
Jelena Minović ◽  
Dragana Kragulj
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Efficiency Increase ◽  
Reduce Energy Consumption ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Energy is a globally important factor of production - the growth of population and income increase energy consumption, so there is an urge to decrease it. However, there are different ways to reduce energy consumption, and one of them is energy efficiency. The aim of the paper is to give a theoretical review of energy efficiency and its benefits. The purpose of the paper is the analysis of economic and environmental indicators and energy efficiency in EU27 (after 2020) and Serbia. The trends of energy efficiency, GDP per capita and GHG emission are shown for the observed countries. The European and Serbian policies and targets for energy efficiency are presented and also the level these countries have reached the set targets. In order to see the relationship between energy efficiency, GDP per capita and GHG emission, the correlation among all variables is applied. The results show that energy efficiency is higher in EU27 than in Serbia. Even though Serbia had energy efficiency increase during the observed period (1995-2018), it lags behind the EU27. However, there is a positive correlation between energy efficiency and GDP and GHG emission in both EU27 and Serbia.

Energy consumption and economic development in Guangdong, China: Distribution, relationship and causes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengmeng Hu ◽  
Yafei Wang ◽  
Beicheng Xia ◽  
Guohe Huang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Intensity ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Pearl River ◽  
Panel Vector Autoregression

Abstract Analysing the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is essential to achieve the goal of sustainable development. We employ hot spot analysis to discover the spatial agglomeration of GDP per capita and energy intensity in Guangdong, China, from 2005–2018. Furthermore, panel vector autoregression coupled with a system generalized method of moments is performed to examine the dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth under the framework of the Cobb-Douglas production function. Using a multivariate model and grouped studies based on the differences in regional economic development, we show that the GDP per capita of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) is significantly higher than that of the peripheral municipalities. However, energy intensity shows an entirely different spatial distribution. The development of the regional economy depends on its own “assembling effect”. GDP explains approximately 68.3% of the total variation in energy consumption in the PRD and only approximately 34.5% of that in the peripheral municipalities. We do not confirm Granger causality between energy consumption and economic development. Guangdong can decrease its energy consumption growth without substantially sacrificing its economic growth. The analysis framework of this paper has significant implications for regions in balancing economic development and energy consumption.

Carbon footprint of the University of Cape Town

2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 2-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thapelo C.M. Letete ◽  
Nothando Wandile Mungwe ◽  
Mondli Guma ◽  
Andrew Marquard
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Carbon Footprint ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Cape Town ◽  
Emission Mitigation ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
University Of Cape Town ◽  
The University

Since signing the Talloires Declaration in 1990, the University of Cape Town (UCT) has been striving to set an example of environmental responsibility by establishing environmentally sound policies and practices, and by developing curricula and research initiatives to support an environmentally sustainable future. One of the most recent efforts in this quest was the release of a Green Campus Action Plan for the University of Cape Town by the Properties and Services Department in 2008. While the Plan proposed a number of carbon emission mitigation interventions for the University, it also stressed the need to conduct a detailed and comprehensive carbon footprint analysis for the whole University. The aim of this analysis was to determine the carbon footprint of UCT, not only to give a tangible number with which the University’s carbon sustainability level can be compared with other academic institutions, but also to provide the much needed baseline against which future mitigation efforts on the university campus can be measured. UCT’s carbon footprint for the year 2007 was found to be about 83 400 tons CO2-eq, with campus energy consumption, Transportation and Goods and Services contributing about 81%, 18% and 1% the footprint respectively. Electricity consumption alone contributes about 80% of all the emissions associated with university activities. UCT’s per-capita emissions for 2007 amount to about 4.0 tons CO2-eq emissions per student. For comparison only, South Africa’s 2007 per capita emissions were estimated at 10.4 tons CO2-eq. In terms of energy consumption only, UCT’s footprint is about 3.2 tons CO2-eq per student, higher than the National University of Lesotho’s value of 0.1 and much lower than Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s value of 33.1.

Energy Consumption - Economic Growth Relationship and Carbon Emissions in Twelve Provinces of West of China

2012 ◽  
Vol 178-181 ◽  
pp. 885-892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Ping Bai ◽  
Jing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Great Effort ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Level Group

This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based dynamic OLS to re-investigate the co-movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 12 provinces(autonomous regions, municipalities) in West of China from 1989 to 2009. The empirical results show that there is a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption variables. Furthermore, we investigate three cross-regional groups, namely the stronger-level, medium-level and weaker-level groups, and get more important results and implications. In the long-term, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita increases the consumption of energy by different rates for three groups respectively, and subsequently it increases at different rates in three groups of the carbon emissions in West of China. The economic growth in stronger-level group is energy-dependent to a great extent, and the income elasticity of energy consumption in stronger-level group is over several times than that of the weaker-level groups. At present, West of China are subject to tremendous pressures formitigating climate change issues. It is possible that the GDP per capita elasticity of carbon emissions would be controlled in a range that orients sustainable development by the great effort.

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