scholarly journals The Price Elasticity of Natural Gas Demand in China: A Meta-Regression Analysis

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Chai ◽  
Huiting Shi ◽  
Xiaoyang Zhou ◽  
Shouyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Price Elasticity ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cross Price Elasticity ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Meta Regression ◽  
Meta Regression Analysis ◽  
Natural Gas Demand

Since natural gas has become a new star in China’s energy mix, a reliable estimation of the price elasticity of natural gas demand is crucial if we are to understand how energy price changes affect natural gas consumption. In this paper, we conduct a Meta-regression analysis to quantitatively synthesize empirical estimates of the price elasticity of natural gas demand reported in previous studies, provide true underlying values, and explain the heterogeneity of the aforementioned estimates. The Fixed-effects model and ordinary least squares (OLS) are applied to estimate the regression models. As a result, this paper reports a mean elasticity of −1.521 and 0.410 for the short- and long-run own-price elasticity, separately; −0.762 and 0.008 for the short- and long-run cross-price elasticity-coal to natural gas, respectively; 2.122 and 1.884 for the short- and long-run cross-price elasticity-electricity to natural gas, separately; and 2.267 and 1.275 for the short- and long-run cross-price elasticity-oil to natural gas, respectively. Our results suggest that natural gas consumption increases with the decrease of its own and coal prices in the short term and rise of electricity and oil prices. It also shows that almost all heterogeneity can be explained by the type of data, sample period, models of analysis, geographical region, and type of consumer.

Price and Income Elasticities of Natural Gas Demand in Egypt: A Bound Test Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Markos Farag ◽  
Chahir Zaki
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Income Elasticities ◽  
Price And Income Elasticities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Demand ◽  
Income And Price Elasticities

Abstract This paper provides short and long-run estimates of price and income elasticities of Egypt’s natural gas demand using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration over the period 1983–2015. The results show that the long-run income and price elasticities, in absolute values, are greater than their counterparts in the short run. This result is due to the fact that consumers can modify their consumption habits and plans in the long run as a response to changes in the income or the price. Moreover, natural gas demand is more responsive to changes in income than changes in price in both the short and long run. Finally, the study examines the causality relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth for the gas-consuming sectors in Egypt. The results indicate that there is no causal relationship between the two variables for the electricity, petroleum, and household sectors in the short-run. By contrast, there is a unidirectional causality running from natural gas consumption to the economic activity of the transportation sector and a unidirectional causality running from economic activity to natural gas consumption by the industry sector.

Information Processing for Analysis of Consumption Flexibility of Global Natural Gas Demand

2014 ◽  
Vol 707 ◽  
pp. 514-519
Author(s):  
Xin Min Zhang ◽  
Kuang Cen ◽  
Wan Li Xing
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Price Elasticity ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Demand ◽  
The Impact

Gas consumption exist great regional difference, price and income are the main factors affecting consumption .Global gas consumption has slow growth, but the price in 2008 there was a twist. We analyze the global natural gas consumption and price points using the data from the BP. The level of economic development and natural gas reserves determine the differences in the levels of consumption. In order to eliminate the impact per unit, the regression model uses the data in the log. This paper studied the influence factors of natural gas consumption in North America using of consumer income elasticity and price elasticity. The results show that the gas consumption have a low income elasticity and price elasticity is higher .Law of "S" shape can explain the income elasticity is low, the reason is that the stage of economic development. Price elasticity is higher lies in the different between Canada and the United States, the United States is a net importer of natural gas, and Canada is a net exporter. Keywords: Consumption Flexibility; Natural Gas Demand; income; price

scholarly journals Forecasting of Day-Ahead Natural Gas Consumption Demand in Greece Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Papageorgiou ◽  
Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou ◽  
Katarzyna Poczeta ◽  
Dionysis Bochtis ◽  
George Stamoulis
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Hybrid Combination ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Demand ◽  
Consumption Demand

(1) Background: Forecasting of energy consumption demand is a crucial task linked directly with the economy of every country all over the world. Accurate natural gas consumption forecasting allows policy makers to formulate natural gas supply planning and apply the right strategic policies in this direction. In order to develop a real accurate natural gas (NG) prediction model for Greece, we examine the application of neuro-fuzzy models, which have recently shown significant contribution in the energy domain. (2) Methods: The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a flexible and easy to use modeling method in the area of soft computing, integrating both neural networks and fuzzy logic principles. The present study aims to develop a proper ANFIS architecture for time series modeling and prediction of day-ahead natural gas demand. (3) Results: An efficient and fast ANFIS architecture is built based on neuro-fuzzy exploration performance for energy demand prediction using historical data of natural gas consumption, achieving a high prediction accuracy. The best performing ANFIS method is also compared with other well-known artificial neural networks (ANNs), soft computing methods such as fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and their hybrid combination architectures for natural gas prediction, reported in the literature, to further assess its prediction performance. The conducted analysis reveals that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the proposed ANFIS architecture results is less than 20% in almost all the examined Greek cities, outperforming ANNs, FCMs and their hybrid combination; and (4) Conclusions: The produced results reveal an improved prediction efficacy of the proposed ANFIS-based approach for the examined natural gas case study in Greece, thus providing a fast and efficient tool for utterly accurate predictions of future short-term natural gas demand.

Natural gas consumption and economic growth nexus: an investigation for France

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-284
Author(s):  
Sahbi Farhani ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth of France. Design/methodology/approach To analyze the relationship, an extended Cobb–Douglas production function is used. The auto-regressive distributive lag bounds testing approach is applied to test the existence of the long-run relationship between the series. The vector error correction model Granger causality approach is implemented to detect the direction of causal relation between the variables. Findings The results show that variables are cointegrated for the long-run relationship. They also indicate that natural gas consumption, exports, capital and labor are the contributing factors to economic growth in France. The causality analysis indicates that feedback hypothesis is validated between gas consumption and economic growth. The bidirectional causality is also found between exports and economic growth, gas consumption and exports and capital and gas consumption. Research limitations/implications The feedback hypothesis between gas consumption and economic growth implies that adoption of energy conservation policies should be discouraged; rather, gas consumption and economic growth policies should be jointly implemented. Originality/value This study is an original work for France and shows the results of the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth. In line with the results of this study, new direction for policy makers is opened up to formulate a comprehensive energy policy to sustain long-term economic growth in France.

Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Production Function Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahid Hassan ◽  
Muhammad Naveed Tahir ◽  
Ayesha Wajid ◽  
Haider Mahmood ◽  
Abdul Farooq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Production Function Approach ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Likelihood Approach ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption

This study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in case of Pakistan using annual data from 1977 to 2013. Using Johansen maximum likelihood approach to estimate the long-run relationship and Granger causality to check the direction of causality, the study finds that the long-run relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth is positive and statistically significant. Furthermore, the Granger causality shows that there exists energy-led growth hypothesis in Pakistan as Granger causality runs from energy to economic growth. The policy implication is that uninterrupted availability of energy is essential and conservation strategies could be harmful for the economic growth.

scholarly journals Probing the Energy-Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Oil and Natural Gas Consumption Models Considering Urbanization and Financial Development in Middle East Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3178
Author(s):  
Haider Mahmood ◽  
Nabil Maalel ◽  
Muhammad Shahid Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Positive Effect

Economic growth, urbanization, and financial market development (FMD) may increase energy demand in any economy. Non-renewable sources of energy consumption, i.e., oil consumption and natural gas consumption (NGC), could have environmental consequences. We examine the effects of economic growth, urbanization, and FMD on the oil consumption and NGC in Middle East countries using the period 1975–2019. In the panel results, we found a positive effect of income and a negative effect of income-squared on oil and natural gas consumption. Hence, we corroborate the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in oil and natural gas consumption models of the Middle East region. Urbanization has a positive effect on oil and natural gas consumption. FMD has a positive effect on oil consumption and has a negative effect on NGC. From the long-run, country-specific results, we validate the existence of the EKC hypothesis in the oil consumption models of Iran and Iraq. The EKC is also found in the natural gas consumption models of Iran, Kuwait, and the UAE. From the short-run results, the EKC hypothesis is validated in the oil consumption models of Iran, Iraq, and Israel. The EKC is also corroborated in the NGC models of Iran, Kuwait, and the UAE. In the long run, urbanization has a positive effect on oil consumption in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Further, urbanization has a positive effect on the NGC in Iraq, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Conversely, urbanization has a negative effect on oil consumption in Israel. In the short run, urbanization has a positive effect on oil consumption in Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, and Qatar. Moreover, urbanization has a positive effect on the NGC in Iraq. On the other hand, urbanization has a negative effect on oil consumption in Saudi Arabia and Iran. In the long run, FMD has a positive effect on oil consumption in Saudi Arabia and Israel. In the short run, FMD has a positive effect on oil consumption in Israel, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, FMD has a negative effect on oil consumption in the UAE. Moreover, a positive effect of FMD on NGC is found in the UAE. However, FMD has a negative effect on the NGC in Israel.

Application of Genetic Algorithm (GA) Technique on Demand Estimation of Fossil Fuels in Turkey

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Ersel Canyurt ◽  
Harun Kemal O¨ztu¨rk
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Demand Estimation ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
The Future ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Demand

The main objective of the present study is to investigate Turkey’s fossil fuels demand, projection and supplies by giving the structure of the Turkish industry and Turkish economic conditions. This present study develops several scenarios to analyze fossil fuels; such as, coal, oil and natural gas consumption and make future projections based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) notion, and examines the effect of the design parameters on the fossil fuels utilization values. The models developed in the nonlinear form are applied to the coal, oil and natural gas demand of Turkey. Several Genetic Algorithm Demand Estimation Models (GA-DEM) are developed to estimate the future coal, oil and natural gas demand values based on population, Gross National Product (GNP), import, export figures. It may be concluded that the proposed models can be used as an alternative solution and estimation techniques for the future fossil fuel utilization values of any country. Oil is the most important fuel in Turkey, contributing 43% of the Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES), followed by coal (almost 30% of TPES) and natural gas (11.8%). In the study, coil, oil and natural gas consumption of Turkey are projected. Estimation shows that the coal, oil and natural gas consumption values may increase 2.82, 1.73 and 4.83 times from 2000 to 2020.

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