scholarly journals Load Forecasting for a Campus University Using Ensemble Methods Based on Regression Trees

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2038 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Ruiz-Abellón ◽  
Antonio Gabaldón ◽  
Antonio Guillamón
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Regression Trees ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Smart Meters ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Objective Being

Load forecasting models are of great importance in Electricity Markets and a wide range of techniques have been developed according to the objective being pursued. The increase of smart meters in different sectors (residential, commercial, universities, etc.) allows accessing the electricity consumption nearly in real time and provides those customers with large datasets that contain valuable information. In this context, supervised machine learning methods play an essential role. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the effectiveness of using ensemble methods based on regression trees in short-term load forecasting. To illustrate this task, four methods (bagging, random forest, conditional forest, and boosting) are applied to historical load data of a campus university in Cartagena (Spain). In addition to temperature, calendar variables as well as different types of special days are considered as predictors to improve the predictions. Finally, a real application to the Spanish Electricity Market is developed: 48-h-ahead predictions are used to evaluate the economical savings that the consumer (the campus university) can obtain through the participation as a direct market consumer instead of purchasing the electricity from a retailer.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 7473
Author(s):  
Hakan Acaroğlu ◽  
Fausto Pedro García Márquez
Keyword(s):  
Wind Energy ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Structural Development ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Comprehensive Review ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Area Of Concern

Forecasting the electricity price and load has been a critical area of concern for researchers over the last two decades. There has been a significant economic impact on producers and consumers. Various techniques and methods of forecasting have been developed. The motivation of this paper is to present a comprehensive review on electricity market price and load forecasting, while observing the scientific approaches and techniques based on wind energy. As a methodology, this review follows the historical and structural development of electricity markets, price, and load forecasting methods, and recent trends in wind energy generation, transmission, and consumption. As wind power prediction depends on wind speed, precipitation, temperature, etc., this may have some inauspicious effects on the market operations. The improvements of the forecasting methods in this market are necessary and attract market participants as well as decision makers. To this end, this research shows the main variables of developing electricity markets through wind energy. Findings are discussed and compared with each other via quantitative and qualitative analysis. The results reveal that the complexity of forecasting electricity markets’ price and load depends on the increasing number of employed variables as input for better accuracy, and the trend in methodologies varies between the economic and engineering approach. Findings are specifically gathered and summarized based on researches in the conclusions.

scholarly journals On Distributional Effects in Local Electricity Market Designs—Evidence from a German Case Study

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1993 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Lüth ◽  
Jens Weibezahn ◽  
Jan Martin Zepter
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
User Participation ◽  
German Market ◽  
Distributional Effects ◽  
National Regulation ◽  
Economic Framework ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The One ◽  
Energy Community

The European Commission’s call for energy communities has motivated academia to focus research on design and trading concepts of local electricity markets. The literature provides a wide range of conceptual ideas and analyses on the technical and economic framework of single market features such as peer-to-peer trading. The feasible, system-wide integration of energy communities into existing market structures requires, however, a set of legal adjustments to national regulation. In this paper, we test the implications of recently proposed market designs under the current rules in the context of the German market. The analysis is facilitated by a simplistic equilibrium model representing heterogeneous market participants in an energy community with their respective objectives. We find that, on the one hand, these proposed designs are financially unattractive to prosumers and consumers under the current regulatory framework. On the other hand, they even cause distributional effects within the community when local trade and self-consumption are exempt from taxes. To this end, we introduce a novel market design—Tech4all—that counterbalances these effects. With only few legal amendments, it allows for ownership and participation of renewable technologies for all community members independent of their property structure and affluence. Our presented analysis shows that this design has the potential to mitigate both distributional effects and the avoidance of system service charges, while simultaneously increasing end-user participation.

Legal Regulation of Competition at Electricity Retail Markets

2019 ◽  
pp. 135-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexei Barkov ◽  
Eugene Vengerovskiy ◽  
Natalia Zalyubovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Electric Energy ◽  
Electric Power Industry ◽  
Legal Regulation ◽  
Social Significance ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Competitive Relations ◽  
National Competition ◽  
Business Entities

The article considers some features of the competitive relation formation in the electric power industry, a major economy sector. In particular, the paper analyzes the electricity retail market operation and the need for competition promotion, it is associated there with a wide range of consumers, which adds high social significance to the effective operation of relations emerging in this area. The author concludes that the retail electricity market needs to increase private funds and decrease state participation, which will contribute to a wider range of service consumers. The article considers some special aspects on how to ensure the dominant position of power supply companies, as well as defines main barriers for business entities to enter retail electricity markets. It also reviews the best foreign practices that regulate energy retail companies (by the example of the Nordic countries) and offers some options of legal receptions in this area. Moreover, it analyzes the Russian legislation novelties in the field of competition at the electricity markets, in particular, the tariff regulation of electricity distributors by the method of reference costs. Also, the article specifies some proposals on how to improve the legislation that regulates competitive relations at the electric energy market within the National Competition Development Plan.

scholarly journals Electricity saving in households due to the market liberalization and change in the consumer behaviour

Energetika ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gatis Bažbauers ◽  
Uldis Bariss ◽  
Lelde Timma ◽  
Dace Lauka ◽  
Andra Blumberga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Market Liberalization ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Electricity Saving

In case of opening the electricity market, various factors interact with each other. Although research has been done on various factors affecting the liberal electricity market, little attention has been paid to studying the dynamic relations between the actors involved in the liberal electricity market and projections on electricity consumption in households. The main aim of the research is to explore both short- and long-term effects on the electricity consumption at liberal market conditions by modelling various development scenarios. The electricity market in operation in Latvia was used as the case study. For the simulation of electricity market liberalization, system dynamics has been chosen. This method can determine electricity savings in case of electricity market opening, because system dynamics allows conducting simulation of complex systems and analysing the obtained data to forecast probability of the development of several scenarios. Obtained results show that cumulative electricity savings in households could reach 560 GWh by the end of 2020 due to the opening of the electricity market, implementation of energy saving measures and other reasons. In case of scenario analysis using the change of consumption behaviour, it was obtained that the cumulative electricity saving could be almost twice as big if the majority of households were guided by the environmental concerns. Although the system dynamics model was based on the Latvian case study, its general application to other countries and electricity markets is also possible.

scholarly journals On the Remuneration to Electrical Utilities and Budgetary Allocation for Substation Maintenance Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 10125
Author(s):  
Pedro J. Zarco-Periñán ◽  
José L. Martínez-Ramos ◽  
Fco. Javier Zarco-Soto
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Common Element ◽  
Similar Distribution ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Electrical Utilities ◽  
Budgetary Allocation

The liberalization of electricity markets has produced a great change in electrical utilities. One of these changes has affected the methodology for setting their remuneration. Depending on the country, these are different. Despite the wide range of remuneration methodologies for the electricity market of each country, they all feature one common element: the remuneration of operation and maintenance. One of the messages that this remuneration transmits is the need to extend the useful life of the facilities to allow sustainable development. This article focuses on the remuneration schemes of electrical utilities, the classification of substations for the definition of their maintenance programs, and the budget allocation for the execution of maintenance in these critical infrastructures. The particularity of these facilities, in which it is generally necessary to de-energize some of their parts for maintenance, has also been taken into account. To this end, a simple methodology currently used is presented based on the standardization of the bays of the substations and their classification into levels of importance. This classification into levels enables the facilities to be grouped according to similarities in their maintenance plans, although they differ from each other in terms of the periodicity of the application of maintenance procedures. This methodology guarantees a similar distribution of maintenance activities and financial needs over the years. In addition, the methodology allows one to know the importance of each substation (since the greater the equivalent weight, the greater the importance). Finally, the application of the proposed methodology in a real case is presented. It shows the simplicity, effectiveness, and lamination of the budgetary allocation of the proposed methodology, this being the main contribution of the formulation.

Designing the Electricity Market with Energy Storage Devices

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 31-43
Author(s):  
Tatiana A. VASKOVSKAYA ◽  
◽  
Boris A. KLUS ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Storage ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Power Flow ◽  
Optimal Power Flow ◽  
Storage Systems ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Energy Storage Systems ◽  
Storage Model ◽  
Optimal Power ◽  
Wide Range

The development of energy storage systems allows us to consider their usage for load profile leveling during operational planning on electricity markets. The paper proposes and analyses an application of an energy storage model to the electricity market in Russia with the focus on the day ahead market. We consider bidding, energy storage constraints for an optimal power flow problem, and locational marginal pricing. We show that the largest effect for the market and for the energy storage system would be gained by integration of the energy storage model into the market’s optimization models. The proposed theory has been tested on the optimal power flow model of the day ahead market in Russia of 10000-node Unified Energy System. It is shown that energy storage systems are in demand with a wide range of efficiencies and cycle costs.

scholarly journals Optimal Sizing and Placement of Capacitor Banks in Distribution Networks Using a Genetic Algorithm

Electricity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-204
Author(s):  
Gian Giuseppe Soma
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Distribution Systems ◽  
Reactive Power ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Distribution Networks ◽  
Optimal Placement ◽  
Capacitor Banks ◽  
Control Pattern ◽  
Definition Of

Nowadays, response to electricity consumption growth is mainly supported by efficiency; therefore, this is the new main goal in the development of electric distribution networks, which must fully comply with the system’s constraints. In recent decades, the issue of independent reactive power services, including the optimal placement of capacitors in the grid due to the restructuring of the electricity industry and the creation of a competitive electricity market, has received attention from related companies. In this context, a genetic algorithm is proposed for optimal planning of capacitor banks. A case study derived from a real network, considering the application of suitable daily profiles for loads and generators, to obtain a better representation of the electrical conditions, is discussed in the present paper. The results confirmed that some placement solutions can be obtained with a good compromise between costs and benefits; the adopted benefits are energy losses and power factor infringements, taking into account the network technical limits. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for optimal placement and sizing of capacitor banks in distribution systems, with the definition of a suitable control pattern, have been proved.

scholarly journals Prosumers’ Behavior under a Regulation That Encourages Strict Self-Sufficiency. The Case of Spanish Photovoltaic Micro-Generation

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1114
Author(s):  
Pere Mir-Artigues ◽  
Pablo del Río
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Specific Form ◽  
Economic Behavior ◽  
Distribution Grid ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Regulatory Limits ◽  
Regulatory Measures ◽  
Self Production ◽  
Municipal Level

The reduction of equipment costs encourages the diffusion of photovoltaic micro-generation, however, proper regulatory measures should be implemented to facilitate self-production dissemination and to promote the emergence of new electricity markets which integrate prosumers. The specific form of these markets will depend on the level of prosumers’ self-sufficiency and the type of grid to which they will be connected. Unfortunately, Spain has been an example of resistance to micro-generation deployment. However, some things have started to change recently, albeit only to a certain extent. This article explains the key elements of the latest regulation of photovoltaic micro-generation in Spain and, through a stylized model, describes the economic behavior of prosumers in such a regulatory framework. It is concluded that this regulation only encourages prosumer plants which are strictly focused on self-sufficiency because it discourages exports and limits capacities and this regulation discourages the smart renewal of the distribution grid because it prevents prosumers from participating in the electricity market. It is recommended that the aforementioned regulatory limits be removed and pilot experiences for the market participation of prosumers be promoted by creating the appropriate technical and regulatory conditions, for example, at the municipal level.

scholarly journals Electricity Markets during the Liberalization: The Case of a European Union Country

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4317
Author(s):  
Štefan Bojnec ◽  
Alan Križaj
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Electricity Power

This paper analyzes electricity markets in Slovenia during the specific period of market deregulation and price liberalization. The drivers of electricity prices and electricity consumption are investigated. The Slovenian electricity markets are analyzed in relation with the European Energy Exchange (EEX) market. Associations between electricity prices on the one hand, and primary energy prices, variation in air temperature, daily maximum electricity power, and cross-border grid prices on the other hand, are analyzed separately for industrial and household consumers. Monthly data are used in a regression analysis during the period of Slovenia’s electricity market deregulation and price liberalization. Empirical results show that electricity prices achieved in the EEX market were significantly associated with primary energy prices. In Slovenia, the prices for daily maximum electricity power were significantly associated with electricity prices achieved on the EEX market. The increases in electricity prices for households, however, cannot be explained with developments in electricity prices on the EEX market. As the period analyzed is the stage of market deregulation and price liberalization, this can have important policy implications for the countries that still have regulated and monopolized electricity markets. Opening the electricity markets is expected to increase competition and reduce pressures for electricity price increases. However, the experiences and lessons learned among the countries following market deregulation and price liberalization are mixed. For industry, electricity prices affect cost competitiveness, while for households, electricity prices, through expenses, affect their welfare. A competitive and efficient electricity market should balance between suppliers’ and consumers’ market interests. With greening the energy markets and the development of the CO2 emission trading market, it is also important to encourage use of renewable energy sources.

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