scholarly journals Combining Grey Model and Self-Adapting Intelligent Grey Model with Genetic Algorithm and Annual Share Changes in Natural Gas Demand Forecasting

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-Feng Fan ◽  
An Wang ◽  
Wei-Chiang Hong
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Natural Gas Demand

scholarly journals Forecasting Natural Gas Demand, Production and Analyzing the Future of CNG & LPG As an Alternatives of Vehicles Fuel in Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-44
Author(s):  
Hasanuzzaman Showrav ◽  
Noor Ahmed Kawsar ◽  
M Farhad Howladar
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Production Forecasting ◽  
The Future ◽  
Natural Gas Demand ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Day By Day

Abstract Natural gas is one of the primary energy sources of Bangladesh. Demand of natural gas in Bangladesh increasing day by day in various sectors. But, due to limited resources, energy crisis increasing gradually. This research work deigned to find out the natural gas crisis via forecasting gas demand and production. At the end, it also analyzed the future of CNG and LPG based vehicles in Bangladesh as an alternative of natural gas dependency. The prediction of gas demand and production has been conducted based on the data from Petrobangla. And the future of CNG and LPG based vehicles were analyzed based on different CNG & LPG conversion company data. Demand forecasting presented three scenarios; “scenario A, scenario B and scenario C” and production forecasting has been displayed as three cases; “case A, case B, case C”. The Comparison of CNG and LPG has been made based on different parameters like conversion cost, calorific fuel value, fuel cost, mileage, risk of explosion of fuel cylinder, carbon emission etc.   The outcomes of gas demand forecasting represented that gas demand is growing in every scenario. The results of production forecasting denoted as existing gas fields production is decreasing gradually. It also indicated, if new reserves would be discovered, then the production will be maximized. On the other hand, CNG conversion rate will be declined due to the shortage of natural gas. In conclusion, the investigation of different parameter of CNG & LPG confirmed, LPG is suitable for cope up with the future crisis. Hence LPG based vehicles need to take place of CNG based vehicles.

Day-Ahead Natural Gas Demand Forecasting in Hourly Resolution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis P. Panapakidis ◽  
Vasileios Polychronidis ◽  
Dimitrios Bargiotas
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Natural Gas Demand

Application of Genetic Algorithm (GA) Technique on Demand Estimation of Fossil Fuels in Turkey

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Ersel Canyurt ◽  
Harun Kemal O¨ztu¨rk
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Demand Estimation ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
The Future ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Demand

The main objective of the present study is to investigate Turkey’s fossil fuels demand, projection and supplies by giving the structure of the Turkish industry and Turkish economic conditions. This present study develops several scenarios to analyze fossil fuels; such as, coal, oil and natural gas consumption and make future projections based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) notion, and examines the effect of the design parameters on the fossil fuels utilization values. The models developed in the nonlinear form are applied to the coal, oil and natural gas demand of Turkey. Several Genetic Algorithm Demand Estimation Models (GA-DEM) are developed to estimate the future coal, oil and natural gas demand values based on population, Gross National Product (GNP), import, export figures. It may be concluded that the proposed models can be used as an alternative solution and estimation techniques for the future fossil fuel utilization values of any country. Oil is the most important fuel in Turkey, contributing 43% of the Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES), followed by coal (almost 30% of TPES) and natural gas (11.8%). In the study, coil, oil and natural gas consumption of Turkey are projected. Estimation shows that the coal, oil and natural gas consumption values may increase 2.82, 1.73 and 4.83 times from 2000 to 2020.

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