scholarly journals Cities on the Coast and Patterns of Movement between Population Growth and Diffusion

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1041
Author(s):  
Dmitry V. Kovalevsky ◽  
Dimitri Volchenkov ◽  
Jürgen Scheffran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Maximum Entropy Principle ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Urban Dynamics

Sea level rise and high-impact coastal hazards due to on-going and projected climate change dramatically affect many coastal urban areas worldwide, including those with the highest urbanization growth rates. To develop tailored coastal climate services that can inform decision makers on climate adaptation in coastal cities, a better understanding and modeling of multifaceted urban dynamics is important. We develop a coastal urban model family, where the population growth and urbanization rates are modeled in the framework of diffusion over the half-bounded and bounded domains, and apply the maximum entropy principle to the latter case. Population density distributions are derived analytically whenever possible. Steady-state wave solutions balancing the width of inhabited coastal zones, with the skewed distributions maximizing population entropy, might be responsible for the coastward migrations outstripping the demographic development of the hinterland. With appropriate modifications of boundary conditions, the developed family of diffusion models can describe coastal urban dynamics affected by climate change.

scholarly journals Interrogating Climate Adaptation Financing in Zimbabwe: Proposed Direction

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6517
Author(s):  
Innocent Chirisa ◽  
Trynos Gumbo ◽  
Veronica N. Gundu-Jakarasi ◽  
Washington Zhakata ◽  
Thomas Karakadzai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Resource Base

Reducing vulnerability to climate change and enhancing the long-term coping capacities of rural or urban settlements to negative climate change impacts have become urgent issues in developing countries. Developing countries do not have the means to cope with climate hazards and their economies are highly dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water, and coastal zones. Like most countries in Southern Africa, Zimbabwe suffers from climate-induced disasters. Therefore, this study maps critical aspects required for setting up a strong financial foundation for sustainable climate adaptation in Zimbabwe. It discusses the frameworks required for sustainable climate adaptation finance and suggests the direction for success in leveraging global climate financing towards building a low-carbon and climate-resilient Zimbabwe. The study involved a document review and analysis and stakeholder consultation methodological approach. The findings revealed that Zimbabwe has been significantly dependent on global finance mechanisms to mitigate the effects of climate change as its domestic finance mechanisms have not been fully explored. Results revealed the importance of partnership models between the state, individuals, civil society organisations, and agencies. Local financing institutions such as the Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe (IDBZ) have been set up. This operates a Climate Finance Facility (GFF), providing a domestic financial resource base. A climate change bill is also under formulation through government efforts. However, numerous barriers limit the adoption of adaptation practices, services, and technologies at the scale required. The absence of finance increases the vulnerability of local settlements (rural or urban) to extreme weather events leading to loss of life and property and compromised adaptive capacity. Therefore, the study recommends an adaptation financing framework aligned to different sectoral policies that can leverage diverse opportunities such as blended climate financing. The framework must foster synergies for improved impact and implementation of climate change adaptation initiatives for the country.

Can climate adaptation solutions fix the urban heat island? An assessment of the thermal conditions during heat waves in Vienna impacted by climate change and urban development scenarios for the mid-21st-century

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Hamer ◽  
Heidelinde Trimmel ◽  
Philipp Weihs ◽  
Stéphanie Faroux ◽  
Herbert Formayer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Human Thermal Comfort ◽  
Urban Heat

<p>Climate change threatens to exacerbate existing problems in urban areas arising from the urban heat island. Furthermore, expansion of urban areas and rising urban populations will increase the numbers of people exposed to hazards in these vulnerable areas. We therefore urgently need study of these environments and in-depth assessment of potential climate adaptation measures.</p><p>We present a study of heat wave impacts across the urban landscape of Vienna for different future development pathways and for both present and future climatic conditions. We have created two different urban development scenarios that estimate potential urban sprawl and optimized development concerning future building construction in Vienna and have built a digital representation of each within the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban surface model. In addition, we select two heat waves of similar frequency of return representative for present and future conditions (following the RCP8.5 scenario) of the mid 21<sup>st</sup> century and use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate both heat wave events. We then couple the two representations urban Vienna in TEB with the WRF heat wave simulations to estimate air temperature, surface temperatures and human thermal comfort during the heat waves. We then identify and apply a set of adaptation measures within TEB to try to identify potential solutions to the problems associated with the urban heat island.</p><p>Global and regional climate change under the RCP8.5 scenario causes the future heat wave to be more severe showing an increase of daily maximum air temperature in Vienna by 7 K; the daily minimum air temperature will increase by 2-4 K. We find that changes caused by urban growth or densification mainly affect air temperature and human thermal comfort local to where new urbanisation takes place and does not occur significantly in the existing central districts.</p><p>Exploring adaptation solutions, we find that a combination of near zero-energy standards and increasing albedo of building materials on the city scale accomplishes a maximum reduction of urban canyon temperature of 0.9 K for the minima and 0.2 K for the maxima. Local scale changes of different adaption measures show that insulation of buildings alone increases the maximum wall surface temperatures by more than 10 K or the maximum mean radiant temperature (MRT) in the canyon by 5 K.  Therefore, additional adaptation to reduce MRT within the urban canyons like tree shade are needed to complement the proposed measures.</p><p>This study concludes that the rising air temperatures expected by climate change puts an unprecedented heat burden on Viennese inhabitants, which cannot easily be reduced by measures concerning buildings within the city itself. Additionally, measures such as planting trees to provide shade, regional water sensitive planning and global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to reduce temperature extremes are required.</p><p>We are now actively seeking to apply this set of tools to a wider set of cases in order to try to find effective solutions to projected warming resulting from climate change in urban areas.</p>

scholarly journals A Possible Circular Approach for Social Perception of Climate Adaptation Action Planning in Metropolitan Cities

2021 ◽  
pp. 155-169
Author(s):  
Alessandro Scuderi ◽  
Luisa Sturiale ◽  
Giuseppe Timpanaro ◽  
Giovanni La Via ◽  
Biagio Pecorino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Action Planning ◽  
Urban Context ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Implementation Phase ◽  
Multi Criteria Evaluation ◽  
Set Up

AbstractOne of the factors that will affect the livability of cities and the overall citizens’ quality of life in the future is certainly climate change. Urban areas will play a fundamental role in the commitment against climate change and will have to develop appropriate adaptation actions, in accordance with the European Strategy against climate change, including the planning and implementation of Green Infrastructures (GIs). They produce various environmental and social benefits in the urban context. Various studies have shown that citizenship involvement at all levels is necessary for the evaluation of the sharing of the proposed projects. The research proposes an innovative methodological model to support administrations in the strategic planning choice of GIs according to a shared and circular approach. To perform a multi-layer assessment, the multi-criteria evaluation will be combined with the circular evaluation model called Green City Circle. The evaluation is set up as a circular process, followed by a first investigative phase, followed by a proactive phase of solutions and an implementation phase up to a final stage of evaluation of the results and strategies for long-term sustainability. The study was carried out in the city of Catania to test a planning and management tool for GIs envisaged by the administration as win–win climate adaptation measures.

LIFE URBANGREEN: Innovative technological platform to improve management of green areas for better climate adaptation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Viskanic ◽  
Alice Pasquinelli ◽  
Alessio Fini ◽  
Piotr Wezyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Urban Green ◽  
Urban Green Areas ◽  
Green Areas

<p>Climate change is a serious and cross-cutting issue: urban areas are particularly sensitive to climate impacts, especially to heatwaves, floods and droughts. Typically, urban phenomena (such as the ‘urban heat island effect’ – where the urban area is significantly warmer than the surrounding rural areas) and the impacts of extreme weather events demonstrate the high vulnerability of cities.</p><p>Specific urban adaptation strategies are therefore needed to make cities more resilient. In this context, green areas and green infrastructures are seen among the most widely applicable, economically viable and effective tools to combat the impacts of climate change and help people adapt to or mitigate adverse effects of this change.</p><p>LIFE URBANGREEN is a European Funded project dealing with climate adaptation through the maximisation of ecosystem services provided by urban green areas maintained in an innovative way. The main expected result is a smart, integrated, geospatial management system, to monitor and govern all activities related to urban green areas, maximizing ecological benefits.</p><p>Five innovative modules are being developed within the project, aimed at:</p><ul><li>providing irrigation to trees only when and where actually needed</li> <li>reducing the carbon footprint of maintenance activities through a more efficient job planning</li> <li>quantifying ecosystem services provided by green areas</li> <li>monitoring health conditions of trees using remote sensing data</li> <li>increasing citizen participation in urban green management</li> </ul><p>The project involves 5 Italian and Polish partners:</p><ul><li>R3 GIS (GIS software company and project coordinator, Bolzano, Italy)</li> <li>University of Milano (scientific coordinator, Milano, Italy)</li> <li>ProGea 4D (remote sensing company, Krakow, Poland)</li> <li>ZZM (manager of urban green areas in Krakow, Poland)</li> <li>Anthea (manager of urban green areas in Rimini, Italy)</li> </ul><p>Also, the National Central University (NCU) in Taiwan, under the coordination of Prof Yuei-An Liou, supports the project and participates as external partner and will test some innovations of the LIFE URBANGREEN Project in Taiwan.</p><p>During the EGU conference, results obtained during the first two years of the project will be presented. More information on the project is available at www.lifeurbangreen.eu</p>

scholarly journals The Influence of Gender Relations on Women’s Involvement and Experience in Climate Change Adaptation Programs in Bangladesh

SAGE Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824401881262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mumita Tanjeela ◽  
Shannon Rutherford
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Power Dynamics ◽  
Rural And Urban Areas ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
History Of ◽  
Adaptation Practices

The nexus between poverty and climate change is a major concern, especially in a country like Bangladesh where lack of resources is a significant problem in both rural and urban areas. Climate change affects a wide demographic of the population in Bangladesh, and among those affected, women are more vulnerable to climate change impacts, as is evident from the history of climate-induced disasters in the country. Climate change increases women’s socio-economic vulnerabilities by directly impacting their family’s food security, water consumption, and livelihood. Hence, their roles and contributions are critical in responding through adaptation. Nonetheless, in Bangladesh, challenges remain to incorporate women as distinct actors and active agents in climate adaptation programs considering the gender power dynamics that exist. In this context, this study focuses on women’s contributions as individuals or as a group and reveals their significant influence in climate change adaptation practices.

scholarly journals Nature-based approaches to managing climate change impacts in cities

2020 ◽  
Vol 375 (1794) ◽  
pp. 20190124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E. Hobbie ◽  
Nancy B. Grimm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Impervious Cover ◽  
Cultural Ecological ◽  
Living Organisms ◽  
Traditional Approaches

Managing and adapting to climate change in urban areas will become increasingly important as urban populations grow, especially because unique features of cities amplify climate change impacts. High impervious cover exacerbates impacts of climate warming through urban heat island effects and of heavy rainfall by magnifying runoff and flooding. Concentration of human settlements along rivers and coastal zones increases exposure of people and infrastructure to climate change hazards, often disproportionately affecting those who are least prepared. Nature-based strategies (NBS), which use living organisms, soils and sediments, and/or landscape features to reduce climate change hazards, hold promise as being more flexible, multi-functional and adaptable to an uncertain and non-stationary climate future than traditional approaches. Nevertheless, future research should address the effectiveness of NBS for reducing climate change impacts and whether they can be implemented at scales appropriate to climate change hazards and impacts. Further, there is a need for accurate and comprehensive cost–benefit analyses that consider disservices and co-benefits, relative to grey alternatives, and how costs and benefits are distributed across different communities. NBS are most likely to be effective and fair when they match the scale of the challenge, are implemented with input from diverse voices and are appropriate to specific social, cultural, ecological and technological contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

scholarly journals Monitoring of Urban Sprawl and Densification Processes in Western Germany in the Light of SDG Indicator 11.3.1 Based on an Automated Retrospective Classification Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1694
Author(s):  
Gohar Ghazaryan ◽  
Andreas Rienow ◽  
Carsten Oldenburg ◽  
Frank Thonfeld ◽  
Birte Trampnau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Urban Dynamics ◽  
Random Forest Classification ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
High Level

By 2050, two-third of the world’s population will live in cities. In this study, we develop a framework for analyzing urban growth-related imperviousness in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) from the 1980s to date using Landsat data. For the baseline 2017-time step, official geodata was extracted to generate labelled data for ten classes, including three classes representing low, middle, and high level of imperviousness. We used the output of the 2017 classification and information based on radiometric bi-temporal change detection for retrospective classification. Besides spectral bands, we calculated several indices and various temporal composites, which were used as an input for Random Forest classification. The results provide information on three imperviousness classes with accuracies exceeding 75%. According to our results, the imperviousness areas grew continuously from 1985 to 2017, with a high imperviousness area growth of more than 167,000 ha, comprising around 30% increase. The information on the expansion of urban areas was integrated with population dynamics data to estimate the progress towards SDG 11. With the intensity analysis and the integration of population data, the spatial heterogeneity of urban expansion and population growth was analysed, showing that the urban expansion rates considerably excelled population growth rates in some regions in NRW. The study highlights the applicability of earth observation data for accurately quantifying spatio-temporal urban dynamics for sustainable urbanization and targeted planning.

scholarly journals Assessing the Quality of Knowledge for Adaptation–Experiences From Co-designing Climate Services in Sweden

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin André ◽  
Linn Järnberg ◽  
Åsa Gerger Swartling ◽  
Peter Berg ◽  
David Segersson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Research Collaboration ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
Full Potential ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Climate Services

Adaptation to climate change is becoming more urgent, but the wealth of knowledge that informs adaptation planning and decision-making is not used to its full potential. Top-down approaches to knowledge production are identified as one important reason for the gap between science and practice and are criticized for not meeting the needs of intended users. In response to this challenge, there is a growing interest in the creation of user-oriented and actionable climate services to support adaptation. At the same time, recent research suggests that greater efforts are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of knowledge co-production processes and the best criteria by which to gauge the quality of knowledge outcomes, while also considering different stakeholder perspectives. This paper explores these issues through a critical assessment of the quality of knowledge for adaptation generated from a climate services co-design process in two case studies in Sweden. The study draws on experiences from a 5-year research collaboration in which natural and social science researchers, together with local stakeholders, co-designed climate services to support climate adaptation planning and decision-making. The well-established knowledge quality criteria of credibility, legitimacy, saliency, usability, and usefulness remain relevant, but are not sufficient to capture factors relating to whether and how the knowledge actually is applied by climate change adaptation planners and decision-makers. We observe that case-specific circumstances beyond the scope of the co-design process, including the decision-making context as well as non-tangible outcomes, also play crucial roles that should be accounted for in the knowledge assessment processes.

scholarly journals Climate change adaptation in conflict-affected countries: A systematic assessment of evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sitati ◽  
E. Joe ◽  
B. Pentz ◽  
C. Grayson ◽  
C. Jaime ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Systematic Assessment ◽  
The Many ◽  
Assessment Of Evidence ◽  
Climate Shocks ◽  
Climate Events

AbstractPeople affected by conflict are particularly vulnerable to climate shocks and climate change, yet little is known about climate change adaptation in fragile contexts. While climate events are one of the many contributing drivers of conflict, feedback from conflict increases vulnerability, thereby creating conditions for a vicious cycle of conflict. In this study, we carry out a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature, taking from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) dataset to documenting climate change adaptation occurring in 15 conflict-affected countries and compare the findings with records of climate adaptation finance flows and climate-related disasters in each country. Academic literature is sparse for most conflict-affected countries, and available studies tend to have a narrow focus, particularly on agriculture-related adaptation in rural contexts and adaptation by low-income actors. In contrast, multilateral and bilateral funding for climate change adaptation addresses a greater diversity of adaptation needs, including water systems, humanitarian programming, and urban areas. Even among the conflict-affected countries selected, we find disparity, with several countries being the focus of substantial research and funding, and others seeing little to none. Results indicate that people in conflict-affected contexts are adapting to climate change, but there is a pressing need for diverse scholarship across various sectors that documents a broader range of adaptation types and their results.

scholarly journals Estimating population and urban areas at risk of coastal hazards, 1990–2015: how data choices matter

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 5747-5801
Author(s):  
Kytt MacManus ◽  
Deborah Balk ◽  
Hasim Engin ◽  
Gordon McGranahan ◽  
Rya Inman
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Urban Rural

Abstract. The accurate estimation of population living in the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) – and at heightened risk from sea level rise – is critically important for policymakers and risk managers worldwide. This characterization of potential exposure depends on robust representations not only of coastal elevation and spatial population data but also of settlements along the urban–rural continuum. The empirical basis for LECZ estimation has improved considerably in the 13 years since it was first estimated that 10 % of the world's population – and an even greater share of the urban population – lived in the LECZ (McGranahan et al., 2007a). Those estimates were constrained in several ways, not only most notably by a single 10 m LECZ but also by a dichotomous urban–rural proxy and population from a single source. This paper updates those initial estimates with newer, improved inputs and provides a range of estimates, along with sensitivity analyses that reveal the importance of understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the underlying data. We estimate that between 750 million and nearly 1.1 billion persons globally, in 2015, live in the ≤ 10 m LECZ, with the variation depending on the elevation and population data sources used. The variations are considerably greater at more disaggregated levels, when finer elevation bands (e.g., the ≤ 5 m LECZ) or differing delineations between urban, quasi-urban and rural populations are considered. Despite these variations, there is general agreement that the LECZ is disproportionately home to urban dwellers and that the urban population in the LECZ has grown more than urban areas outside the LECZ since 1990. We describe the main results across these new elevation, population and urban-proxy data sources in order to guide future research and improvements to characterizing risk in low-elevation coastal zones (https://doi.org/10.7927/d1x1-d702, CIESIN and CIDR, 2021).

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