scholarly journals Principled Decision-Making Workflow with Hierarchical Bayesian Models of High-Throughput Dose-Response Measurements

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 727
Author(s):  
Eric J. Ma ◽  
Arkadij Kummer

We present a case study applying hierarchical Bayesian estimation on high-throughput protein melting-point data measured across the tree of life. We show that the model is able to impute reasonable melting temperatures even in the face of unreasonably noisy data. Additionally, we demonstrate how to use the variance in melting-temperature posterior-distribution estimates to enable principled decision-making in common high-throughput measurement tasks, and contrast the decision-making workflow against simple maximum-likelihood curve-fitting. We conclude with a discussion of the relative merits of each workflow.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Ma ◽  
Arkadij Kummer

We present a case study applying hierarchical Bayesian estimation on high throughput protein melting point data measured across the tree of life. We show that the model is able to impute reasonable melting temperatures even in the face of unreasonably noisy data. Additionally, we demonstrate how to use the variance in melting temperature posterior distribution estimates to enable principled decision-making in common high throughput measurement tasks, and contrast the decision-making workflow against simple maximum-likelihood curve fitting. We conclude with a discussion of the relative merits of each workflow.


2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 116-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Li ◽  
Kiwamu Ishikura ◽  
Chunying Wang ◽  
Jagadeesh Yeluripati ◽  
Ryusuke Hatano

Author(s):  
Feng Zhou ◽  
Jianxin (Roger) Jiao

Traditional user experience (UX) models are mostly qualitative in terms of its measurement and structure. This paper proposes a quantitative UX model based on cumulative prospect theory. It takes a decision making perspective between two alternative design profiles. However, affective elements are well-known to have influence on human decision making, the prevailing computational models for analyzing and simulating human perception on UX are mainly cognition-based models. In order to incorporate both affective and cognitive factors in the decision making process, we manipulate the parameters involved in the cumulative prospect model to show the affective influence. Specifically, three different affective states are induced to shape the model parameters. A hierarchical Bayesian model with a technique called Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to estimate the parameters. A case study of aircraft cabin interior design is illustrated to show the proposed methodology.


2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Amanda Wolf

Policy practitioner–students in a Master of Public Policy programme in New Zealand describe many problems and processes in their work environments as ‘complex’. Yet, they hold firmly to a belief in the merits of ‘evidence’ to guide their advice and decision making in the face of that complexity. This article examines the aims and pedagogy of a two-course sequence designed to help students replace over-reliance on analysing existing evidence with understanding of the ways complexity concepts can aid in estimating possible outcomes of policy interventions. Starting with identifying evidence challenges, students learn how to compare a status quo situation and a prospective case of that status quo in which a new policy has been implemented. This method draws on existing scholarship in lesson-drawing for policy applications. Students are eased into an appreciation of a variety of complexity frameworks and concepts by looking at a case about which there is, strictly speaking, no evidence. 


2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 025010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Calvetti ◽  
Monica Pragliola ◽  
Erkki Somersalo ◽  
Alexander Strang

1999 ◽  
Vol 38 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1117-1132
Author(s):  
Toseef Azid ◽  
Muhammad Akbar Noor

The behaviour of firms is still a little understood matter. Why one firm or industry is investing more than the other or what makes a firm enter or exit from the market, what are the psychological factors that go to make a choice of this kind are questions that have not been answered satisfactorily. Concepts like irreversibility, uncertainty, investment, and the value of waiting are very much there in the literature, e.g., McDonald and Siegel (1985, 1986); Nickell (1974); Schmalensee (1972); Hartman (1972); Henry (1974) and LAM (1989) and others. But the psychology of decision-making on the face of losses has not received much attention in the literature. That the Economic Hysteresis1 and Layers of Techniques2, developed by Professor A. Dixit and Professor P. N. Mathur respectively tackle. The former is discussed by Pindyck (1988, 1991, 1992) and Dixit (1989, 1989a, 1991, 1992); while Mathur (1977, 1989, 1990); Law and Azid (1993); Azid and Ghosh (1998) and Rashid (1989,1989a) have discussed the latter.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-48
Author(s):  
Syuhud Syuhud

Decision making is one of the leader's strategic tasks in carrying out his leadership duties. Therefore information, participation from various parties and aspects in the management system, will determine the quality of decisions made by the leadership. Kyai as the highest leader of pesantren will determine the direction of development and make quality long-term strategic decisions in the face of global change. The ability of Kyai in managing information from subordinates in society can be seen from his decision making methods, namely full power and power sharing. The focus of this research lies in how Kyai utilize and manage information to make a positive contribution to produce quality decisions in Pondok pesantren Kyai Syarifuddin, Lumajang ? This research uses a qualitative approach with case study. The results showed that Kyai as a leader in pesantren have full authority in decision making, both short and long term. However, However, the Kyai as leaders of pesantren still ask for input information from the pesantren administrators as a material consideration in making quality decisions. The quality of decisions determined by a leader is very dependent on the extent to which information material data considerations provide an influence on the outcome of the decision.


Liquidity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-109
Author(s):  
Ellya Sestri

An increasingly rapid technological progress in the era of globalization in the business world, so do not rule out the possibility that a decision-making is something that is very vital in determining the decisions to be taken in the face of competitive business world. Decision making can be influenced by several aspects, this can affect the speed of decision making by the decision maker in which decisions must be quick and accurate. Lecturer Performance Assessment Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process is a decision support system that aims to assess faculty performance according to certain criteria. This system of faculty performance appraisal criteria to map a hierarchy, where each hierarchy will be performed pairwise comparison, the pairwise comparisons between criteria, so to get a comparison of the relative importance of criteria with each other. The results of this comparison is then analyzed to obtain the priority of each criterion. Once completed and performed an assessment of alternative options to be compared and calculated to obtain the best alternatives according to established criteria.


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