scholarly journals Project Management Monitoring Based on Expected Duration Entropy

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 905
Author(s):  
Shiva Cohen Kashi ◽  
Shai Rozenes ◽  
Irad Ben-Gal
Keyword(s):  
Completion Time ◽  
Information Gain ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Actual Duration ◽  
Numerical Experimentation ◽  
Completion Date ◽  
Inaccurate Estimation ◽  
Expected Information Gain

Projects are rarely executed exactly as planned. Often, the actual duration of a project’s activities differ from the planned duration, resulting in costs stemming from the inaccurate estimation of the activity’s completion date. While monitoring a project at various inspection points is pricy, it can lead to a better estimation of the project completion time, hence saving costs. Nonetheless, identifying the optimal inspection points is a difficult task, as it requires evaluating a large number of the project’s path options, even for small-scale projects. This paper proposes an analytical method for identifying the optimal project inspection points by using information theory measures. We search for monitoring (inspection) points that can maximize the information about the project’s estimated duration or completion time. The proposed methodology is based on a simulation-optimization scheme using a Monte Carlo engine that simulates potential activities’ durations. An exhaustive search is performed of all possible monitoring points to find those with the highest expected information gain on the project duration. The proposed algorithm’s complexity is little affected by the number of activities, and the algorithm can address large projects with hundreds or thousands of activities. Numerical experimentation and an analysis of various parameters are presented.

Project buffer sizing and dynamic buffer consumption algorithm in power generation construction

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shakib Zohrehvandi ◽  
Mohammad Khalilzadeh ◽  
Maghsoud Amiri ◽  
Shahram Shadrokh
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Heuristic Algorithm ◽  
Completion Time ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
The Other ◽  
Wind Power Plant ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Buffer Sizing

PurposeThe aim of this research is to propose a buffer sizing and buffer controlling algorithm (BSCA) as a heuristic algorithm for calculating project buffer and feeding buffers as well as dynamic controlling of buffer consumption in different phases of a wind power plant project in order to achieve a more realistic project duration.Design/methodology/approachThe BSCA algorithm has two main phases of planning and buffer sizing and construction and buffer consumption. Project buffer and feeding buffers are determined in the planning and buffer sizing phase, and their consumption is controlled in the construction and buffer consumption phase. The heuristic algorithm was coded and run in MATLAB software. The sensitivity analysis was conducted to show the BSCA influence on project implementation. Then, to evaluate the BSCA algorithm, inputs from this project were run through several algorithms recently presented by researchers. Finally, the data of 20 projects previously accomplished by the company were applied to compare the proposed algorithm.FindingsThe results show that BSCA heuristic algorithm outperformed the other algorithms as it shortened the projects' durations. The average project completion time using the BSCA algorithm was reduced by about 15% compared to the previous average project completion time.Originality/valueThe proposed BSCA algorithm determines both the project buffer and feeding buffers and simultaneously controls their consumption in a dynamic way.

scholarly journals PERCEPATAN WAKTU PELAKSANAAN PEKERJAAN KONSTRUKSI DENGAN METODE CPM DAN TCTO

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-40
Author(s):  
Cut Zukhrina Oktaviani ◽  
Ibnu Abbas Majid ◽  
Risdiawati Risdiawati
Keyword(s):  
Completion Time ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Minimum Cost ◽  
Time Cost ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Project Costs ◽  
Total Project

Construction delays are a common and major concern in most construction projects. Construction project delay can indirectly affect of project performance. Delay resolve method is to schedule crashing with various methods. This crashing planning is done by combining the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Time-Cost Trade-Off (TCTO) method for the minimum cost in crash duration calculation. Project A data is used to be a case studi in crash duration calculation and costs increase. Rescheduling with CPM result project completion time 120 days and after crashing project duration becomes 94 days, there was a reduction 26 days project completion time. Crashing programme are do to 18 activities from 30 critical activies rescheduling with CPM result. Total project costs changes is Rp. 19.923.466,- due working time addition (overtime) to reduce project time with Time Cost Trade Off method. Normal condition project costs is Rp. 985,171,182.52 and after duration crash becomes Rp. 1,005,094,648, -.

Analysing causal relationships between delay factors in construction projects

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Jahangoshai Rezaee ◽  
Samuel Yousefi ◽  
Ripon K. Chakrabortty
Keyword(s):  
Completion Time ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Planning Stage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Inaccurate Estimation

Purpose Analyzing factors of delays in construction projects and determining their impact on project performance is necessary to better manage and control projects. Identification of root factors which may lead to project delay and increased cost is vital at the early or planning stage. Better identification of delay factors at the early stage can help the practitioners to reduce their impacts over the long run. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose an intelligent method to analyze causal relationships between delay factors in construction projects. The proposed approach is further validated by a real case study of the construction projects in West Azerbaijan province in Iran. Design/methodology/approach During the first phase, the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is drawn to indicate the causal relationships between the delay factors and the evaluation factors. For this purpose, the causal relationships between 20 delay factors and four evaluation factors are considered. Afterward, the effect of each factor on management goals is evaluated by using a hybrid learning algorithm. Delay factors are further prioritized by applying fuzzy data envelopment analysis (FDEA). In the second phase, an interpretive structural modeling (ISM) is employed to determine the root causes of delay factors. Findings Results of the first phase show that “supervision technical weaknesses for overcoming technical and executive workshop problems” and “Inaccurate estimation of workload, required equipment and project completion time” are the most significant delay factors. In contrary, “non-use of new engineering contracts” has the lowest impact on the management goals. Meanwhile, the results of the second phase conclude that factors like “Inaccurate estimation of workload, required equipment and project completion time” “weakness of laws and regulations related to job responsibilities” and “lack of foreseen of fines and encouragements in the contracts” are the most significant root factors of delay in construction projects. Originality/value This paper integrates three methods including FCM method, FDEA and ISM. In the first phase, FCM is drawn according to the experts’ opinions and concerning management goals and delay factors. Later, these factors are prioritized according to the results of running the algorithm and using the FDEA model. The second phase, the seven-step in the ISM methodology, is done to identify the root factors. To ensure that the root factors of the delay are at a lower level of hierarchical structure, delay factors are partitioned by drawing the ISM model.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH PEMILIHAN JENIS BEKISTING TERHADAP DURASI DAN BIAYA PELAKSANAAN PEKERJAAN STRUKTUR PROYEK X

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 887
Author(s):  
Wilsen Hartanto Lim ◽  
Arianti Sutandi
Keyword(s):  
Completion Time ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Additional Cost ◽  
Time Study ◽  
Project Implementation ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Completion Date ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Expected Duration

ABSTRACTThe planed duration of  construction Project X was 730 days with the upper structure targeted to be finished in July 2020. There was delay in the beginning of project implementation and the expected duration became 745 days,  the upper structure completion date pushed back to October 2020. In order to keep in line with target, one of the alternatives was to change the formwork material from conventional to aluminium. By applying this change, there was a need to study the effects to the project duration, the upper structure finish date, and the additional cost. To calculate the project duration, and the labour coefficient of productivity using the motion and time study method, the completion time of aluminium formwork work is required. From the calculation, it can be concluded that it was more effective to apply an 8-zone of formwork division in every storey,  which will result in 711 days of project duration and the upper structure finish date will be in August 2020. The costs for the aluminium formwork which consisted of materials and labour fees amounted to Rp 7,991,548,555 or higher by Rp 1,000,000,000 compared to conventional formwork. ABSTRAKTarget durasi pekerjaan konstruksi proyek X adalah 730 hari dengan target waktu selesai pekerjaan struktur atas pada bulan Juli 2020. Pada awal pelaksanaan proyek terjadi keterlambatan sehingga diperkirakan menghasilkan durasi proyek 745 hari dan waktu selesai pekerjaan struktur atas menjadi Oktober 2020. Untuk mengejar target proyek, salah satu alternatif yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan mengganti jenis material bekisting dari konvensional menjadi aluminium. Sehingga dengan penggantian tersebut perlu dilakukan studi pengaruh penggantian jenis bekisting terhadap durasi proyek, waktu selesai pekerjaan struktur atas, dan biaya pekerjaan bekisting. Untuk menghitung durasi proyek, dan koefisien tenaga kerja yang dilakukan dengan metode motion and time study diperlukan waktu pekerjaan bekisting aluminium. Dari perhitungan durasi proyek diperoleh waktu yang lebih efektif adalah dengan pembagian 8 zona yang menghasilkan durasi proyek 711 hari dan waktu selesai pekerjaan struktur atas adalah Agustus 2020. Untuk biaya pekerjaan bekisting aluminium yang terdiri dari biaya material dan biaya upah tenaga kerja didapatkan total biaya adalah Rp 7,991,548,555 atau lebih besar sekitar Rp 1,000,000,000 dibandingkan dengan bekisting konvensional. 

Project Completion Time and Cost Prediction Using Change Point Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 04014086 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Taha Hossein Mortaji ◽  
Rassoul Noorossana ◽  
Morteza Bagherpour
Keyword(s):  
Change Point ◽  
Completion Time ◽  
Change Point Analysis ◽  
Cost Prediction ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Point Analysis

ANALISIS PENERAPAN SISTEM PENJADWALAN DENGAN METODE PERT PADA PROYEK KONSTRUKSI (STUDI KASUS: REHABILITASI DAN PENINGKATAN INFRASTRUKSI PASAR TRADISONAL KOTA MALANG)

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Faris Rizal Andardi
Keyword(s):  
Completion Time ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Scheduling System ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Traditional Market ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Market Infrastructure

PERT is a simplified software, to produce the expected project completion probability based on the duration or duration of a particular contract. In developing the PERT method a lot of research was carried out to perfect this method. The purpose of this study is to determine the overall duration of project completion, the magnitude of the project probability that can be completed in less than 170 days and more than 170 days, and the project completion time with the highest probability. Results of Analysis of Implementation of Scheduling System with PERT Method in Rehabilitation and Improvement of Traditional Market Infrastructure Projects in Malang City is the total duration of simulation results obtained 168 days faster than the 172 day plan. The probability of completing the 168 day project is 50%, while the probability of completing the 172 day project is 85.31%. The highest chance of the project being completed is 99.97%, with a duration of 181 days.

scholarly journals Gaussian Process Based Expected Information Gain Computation for Bayesian Optimal Design

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 258
Author(s):  
Zhihang Xu ◽  
Qifeng Liao
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Optimal Design ◽  
Information Gain ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Bayesian Optimization ◽  
Likelihood Functions ◽  
Expected Information ◽  
Bayesian Optimal Design ◽  
Bayesian Monte Carlo ◽  
Expected Information Gain

Optimal experimental design (OED) is of great significance in efficient Bayesian inversion. A popular choice of OED methods is based on maximizing the expected information gain (EIG), where expensive likelihood functions are typically involved. To reduce the computational cost, in this work, a novel double-loop Bayesian Monte Carlo (DLBMC) method is developed to efficiently compute the EIG, and a Bayesian optimization (BO) strategy is proposed to obtain its maximizer only using a small number of samples. For Bayesian Monte Carlo posed on uniform and normal distributions, our analysis provides explicit expressions for the mean estimates and the bounds of their variances. The accuracy and the efficiency of our DLBMC and BO based optimal design are validated and demonstrated with numerical experiments.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document