scholarly journals Linking Synthetic Populations to Household Geolocations: A Demonstration in Namibia

Data ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dana Thomson ◽  
Lieke Kools ◽  
Warren Jochem

Whether evaluating gridded population dataset estimates (e.g., WorldPop, LandScan) or household survey sample designs, a population census linked to residential locations are needed. Geolocated census microdata data, however, are almost never available and are thus best simulated. In this paper, we simulate a close-to-reality population of individuals nested in households geolocated to realistic building locations. Using the R simPop package and ArcGIS, multiple realizations of a geolocated synthetic population are derived from the Namibia 2011 census 20% microdata sample, Namibia census enumeration area boundaries, Namibia 2013 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and dozens of spatial covariates derived from publicly available datasets. Realistic household latitude-longitude coordinates are manually generated based on public satellite imagery. Simulated households are linked to latitude-longitude coordinates by identifying distinct household types with multivariate k-means analysis and modelling a probability surface for each household type using Random Forest machine learning methods. We simulate five realizations of a synthetic population in Namibia’s Oshikoto region, including demographic, socioeconomic, and outcome characteristics at the level of household, woman, and child. Comparison of variables in the synthetic population were made with 2011 census 20% sample and 2013 DHS data by primary sampling unit/enumeration area. We found that synthetic population variable distributions matched observed observations and followed expected spatial patterns. We outline a novel process to simulate a close-to-reality microdata census geolocated to realistic building locations in a low- or middle-income country setting to support spatial demographic research and survey methodological development while avoiding disclosure risk of individuals.

Author(s):  
Dana R. Thomson ◽  
Lieke Kools ◽  
Warren C. Jochem

Whether evaluating gridded population dataset estimates (e.g. WorldPop, LandScan) or household survey sample designs, a population census linked to residential locations are needed. Geolocated census microdata data, however, are almost never available and are thus best simulated. In this paper, we simulate a close-to-reality population of individuals nested in households geolocated to realistic building locations. Using the R simPop package and ArcGIS, multiple realizations of a geolocated synthetic population are derived from the Namibia 2011 census 20% microdata sample, Namibia census enumeration area boundaries, Namibia 2013 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and dozens of publicly available spatial datasets. Realistic household latitude-longitude coordinates are manually generated based on public satellite imagery. Simulated households are linked to latitude-longitude coordinates by identifying distinct household types with multivariate kmeans analysis, and modelling a probability surface for each household type using Random Forest machine learning methods. We simulate five realizations of a synthetic population in Namibia's Oshikoto region, including demographic, socioeconomic and outcome characteristics at the level of household, woman, and child. Comparison of variables in the synthetic population were made with 2011 census 20% sample and 2013 DHS data by primary sampling unit/enumeration area. We found that synthetic population variable distributions matched observed observations and followed expected spatial patterns. We outline a novel process to simulate a close-to-reality microdata census geolocated to realistic building locations in a low- or middle-income country setting to support spatial demographic research and survey methodological development while avoiding disclosure risk of individuals.


Author(s):  
Hoang-Anh Ho ◽  
Peter Martinsson ◽  
Ola Olsson

AbstractCultural norms diverge substantially across societies, often within the same country. We propose and investigate a self-domestication/selective migration hypothesis, proposing that cultural differences along the individualism–collectivism dimension are driven by the out-migration of individualistic people from collectivist core regions of states to peripheral frontier areas, and that such patterns of historical migration are reflected even in the current distribution of cultural norms. Gaining independence in 939 CE after about a thousand years of Chinese colonization, historical Vietnam emerged in the region that is now north Vietnam with a collectivist social organization. From the eleventh to the eighteenth centuries, historical Vietnam gradually expanded its territory southward to the Mekong River Delta through repeated waves of conquest and migration. Using a nationwide household survey, a population census, and a lab-in-the-field experiment, we demonstrate that areas annexed earlier to historical Vietnam are currently more prone to collectivist norms, and that these cultural norms are embodied in individual beliefs. Relying on many historical accounts, together with various robustness checks, we argue that the southward out-migration of individualistic people during the eight centuries of the territorial expansion is an important driver, among many others, of these cultural differences.


2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (110) ◽  
pp. 48-57
Author(s):  
Freddy Carrasco Choque ◽  
Rudy Francheska Castillo Araujo

Education promotes progress and economic and social growth, improves the quality of life of the population. The first objective of the study was to identify people's income according to the years of schooling, the second was to estimate the income gap according to gender, residence and working conditions, the third was to identify the return of education, work experience towards the income of the Peruvian inhabitants. Parametric tests and the two-stage Heckman model were used to obtain the results. The data come from the National Household Survey. Income differs according to schooling. There are gaps in earned income. For one more year of education, the monetary return amounts to 12,46%, if it is a woman, it is 13,23%, if it is a man, it is 11,51%, if it resides in an urban area it amounts to 10,62%, if it is a resident in rural areas it amounts to 9,83%. Keywords: Labor income, returns to education, Mincer equation, Heckman methodology. References [1]J. Mincer, “Schooling, Experience, and Earnings,” Natl. Bur. Econ. Res., 1974, [Online]. Available: https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/schooling-experience-and-earnings. [2]T. W. Schultz, “Investment in Human capital,” Am. Econ. Rev., vol. Vil. (1)2, 1961. [3]J. Freire and M. Teijeiro, “Las ecuaciones de Mincer y las tasas de rendimiento de la educación en Galicia,” Investig. Econ. la Educ. 5 - Univ. A Coruña, 2010. [4]K. Ogundari and A. Abdulai, “Determinants of Household’s Education and Healthcare Spending in Nigeria: Evidence from Survey Data,” African Dev. Rev., vol. Vol. 26, N, pp. 1–14, 2014. [5]C. Montenegro and H. Patrinos, “Comparable estimates of returns to schooling around the world,” Policy Res. Work. Pap. Ser. 7020, World Bank., 2014. [6]G. Fink and E. Peet, “Returns to Education in Low and Middle-Income Countries: Evidence from the Living Standards and Measurement Surveys,” Progr. Glob. Demogr. Aging Harvard Univ., vol. PGDA Worki, 2014, [Online]. Available: https://cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1288/2015/06/PGDA_WP_120_Fink.pdf. [7]L. Godínez, E. Figueroa, and F. Pérez, “Rentabilidad privada de la educación en el Estado de México,” Papeles Poblac. - Univ. Auton. Mex., vol. Vol. 22 N°, 2016. [8]M. Diaz, “Brecha Salarial por Género en Colombia.,” Econ. y Finanz. Int. - Univ. la Sabana - Colomb., 2014. [9]M. Urroz and M. Salgado, “La relación entre educación e ingresos: estimación de las diferencias salariales por nivel educativo alcanzado,” Fund. Zamora Terán, 2014. [10]E. Tarupi, “El capital humano y los retornos a la educación en Ecuador,” Gest. - Rev. Int. Adm., 2015, [Online]. Available: https://revistas.uasb.edu.ec/index.php/eg/article/view/571. [11]R. Arpi and L. Arpi, “Retornos Heterogeneos a La Educación En el Mercado Laboral Peruano, 2015,” Rev. Investig. Altoandina, vol. Vol. 18, 2016. [12]R. Paz and J. C. Quilla, “Retornos a la Educación de los Jefes de Hogar en la Región de Puno, 2011 – 2015,” Rev. Investig. Altoandina, vol. V. 18, 2016. [13]INEI, “Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica - Evolucion de la Pobreza Monetaria 2008 - 2019,” 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/cifras_de_pobreza/informe_pobreza2019.pdf. [14]A. Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Londres: Londres - Reino Unido, 1776. [15]G. Becker, “A Theory of the Allocation of Time,” Econ. J., vol. Vol. 75 N°, p. pp.493-517, 1964. [16]R. Hernández, C. Fernández, and M. del P. Baptista, Metodologia de la Investigación, vol. 6ta Ed. 2014. [17]W. Mendoza, Cómo Investigan los Economistas, 1ra Ed. Lima - Perú, 2014. [18]D. Alfaro and E. Guerrero, “Brechas de genero en el ingreso: Una mirada mas alla de la media en el sector agropecuario,” Consorc. Investig. Econ. y Soc. - CIES, 2013, [Online]. Available: http://cies.org.pe/sites/default/files/investigaciones/1_informe_final_pb19_-_alfaro_y_guerrero_final.pdf. [19]J. Wooldridge, Introduccion a la Econometria. Un enfoque moderno, 4ta Ed. Mexico, D.F., 2009. [20]D. Gujarati and D. Porter, Econometría. 2010.


Author(s):  
Erhan Artuc ◽  
Guido Porto ◽  
Bob Rijkers

Abstract How do trade reforms impact households in different parts of the income distribution? This paper presents a new database, the Household Impacts of Tariffs data set, which contains harmonized household survey and tariff data for 54 low- and middle-income countries. The data cover highly disaggregated information on household budget and income shares for 53 agricultural products, wage labor income, non-farm enterprise sales and transfers, as well as spending on manufacturing and services. Using a stylized model of the first-order impacts of import tariffs on household real income, this paper quantifies the welfare implications of agricultural trade protection. On average, unilateral elimination of agricultural tariffs would increase household incomes by 2.50 percentage points. Import tariffs have highly heterogeneous effects across countries and within countries across households, consumers, and income earners; the average standard deviation of the gains from trade within a country is 1.01 percentage points.


2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Cherif ◽  
H Khiari ◽  
R Mallekh ◽  
M Hsairi

Abstract Background Tobacco smoking is a major risk factor for several debilitating health conditions, causing thus premature deaths and disability. Globally, 8 million deaths, mainly occurring in low and middle income countries, are attributable to tobacco use each year. We aimed in this study to estimate the premature mortality attributable to current cigarettes smoking among Tunisian adults aged 35-69 years. Methods The population attributable fraction (PAF) method was used to estimate the number of premature deaths attributable to smoking. The estimates for the total number of deaths in Tunisia in 2016 by causes were obtained from the health metrics database. The current cigarettes smoking prevalence was taken from a nationally representative household survey conducted in 2016 and the used relative risks were obtained from the cancer prevention study II of the American Cancer Society. Results A total of 3219 premature deaths were attributable to current cigarettes smoking accounting for 23.1% (34.2% in men and 2.1% in women) of the total number of deaths. The leading causes of premature mortality attributable to smoking were lung cancers (PAF= 79.6%), chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (PAF= 54.5%) and upper aerodigestive tract cancers (PAF= 54.3%). Conclusions Nearly a quarter of premature deaths in Tunisia in 2016 were attributable to tobacco smoking. This underscores the need to enhance the MPOWER measures application mainly through the promotion of anti-tobacco awareness campaigns and the reimbursement of smoking cessation treatments. Key messages Tobacco smoking were responsible for a significant percentage of premature deaths mainly among Tunisian men in 2016. Our results highlight the urge to enhance the MPOWER measures application in Tunisia.


2022 ◽  
Vol 119 (3) ◽  
pp. e2113658119
Author(s):  
Guanghua Chi ◽  
Han Fang ◽  
Sourav Chatterjee ◽  
Joshua E. Blumenstock

Many critical policy decisions, from strategic investments to the allocation of humanitarian aid, rely on data about the geographic distribution of wealth and poverty. Yet many poverty maps are out of date or exist only at very coarse levels of granularity. Here we develop microestimates of the relative wealth and poverty of the populated surface of all 135 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) at 2.4 km resolution. The estimates are built by applying machine-learning algorithms to vast and heterogeneous data from satellites, mobile phone networks, and topographic maps, as well as aggregated and deidentified connectivity data from Facebook. We train and calibrate the estimates using nationally representative household survey data from 56 LMICs and then validate their accuracy using four independent sources of household survey data from 18 countries. We also provide confidence intervals for each microestimate to facilitate responsible downstream use. These estimates are provided free for public use in the hope that they enable targeted policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, provide the foundation for insights into the causes and consequences of economic development and growth, and promote responsible policymaking in support of sustainable development.


Author(s):  
Dana R. Thomson ◽  
Dale A. Rhoda ◽  
Andrew J. Tatem ◽  
Marcia C. Castro

Objective: In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), household survey data are a main source of information for planning, evaluation, and decision-making. Standard surveys are based on censuses, however, for many LMICs it has been more than ten years since their last census and they face high urban growth rates. Over the last decade, survey designers have begun to use modelled gridded population estimates as sample frames. We summarize the state of the emerging field of gridded population survey sampling, focussing on LMICs. Methods: We performed a systematic review and identified 43 national and sub-national gridded population-based household surveys implemented across 29 LMICs. Findings: Gridded population surveys used automated and manual approaches to derive clusters from WorldPop and LandScan gridded population estimates. After sampling, many surveys interviewed all households in each cluster or segment, though some sampled households from larger clusters. Tools to select gridded population survey clusters include the GridSample R package, Geo-sampling tool, and GridSample.org. In the field, gridded population surveys generally relied on geographically accurate maps based on satellite imagery or OpenStreetMap, and a tablet or GPS technology for navigation. Conclusions: For gridded population survey sampling to be adopted more widely, several strategic questions need answering regarding cell-level accuracy and uncertainty of gridded population estimates, the methods used to group/split cells into sample frame units, design effects of new sample designs, and feasibility of tools and methods to implement surveys across diverse settings.


2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-81
Author(s):  
Carlos Varela ◽  
Asgaut Viste ◽  
Sven Young ◽  
Reinou S. Groen ◽  
Leonard Banza ◽  
...  

BackgroundUntreated surgical conditions may lead to lifelong disability in children. Treating children with surgical conditions may reduce long-term effects of morbidity and disability. Unfortunately, low- and middle-income countries have limited resources for paediatric surgical care. Malawi, for example, has very few paediatric surgeons. There are also significantly inadequate infrastructures and personnel to treat these children. In order to strengthen resources that could provide such services, we need to begin by quantifying the need.AimTo estimate the approximate prevalence of surgical conditions among children in Malawi, to describe the anatomical locations and diagnoses of the conditions and the presence of injuries.MethodsA cross-sectional, nationwide survey of surgical needs was performed in 28 of 29 districts of Malawi. Villages, households and household members were randomly selected. A total of 1487 households were visited and 2960 persons were interviewed. This paper is a sub analysis of the children in the dataset. Information was obtained from 255 living children and inquiry from household respondents for the 255 children who had died in the past year. The interviews were conducted by medical students over a 60-day period, and the validated SOSAS tool was used for data collection. ResultsThere were 67 out of 255 (26.3%) total children living with a surgical condition at the time of the study, with most of the conditions located in the extremities. Half of the children lived with problems due to injuries. Traffic accidents were the most common cause. Two-thirds of the children living with a surgical condition had some kind of disability, and one-third of them were grossly disabled. There were 255 total deceased children, with 34 who died from a surgical condition. The most prevalent causes of death were congenital anomalies of the abdomen, groin and genital region. ConclusionAn extrapolation of the 26% of children found to be living with a surgical condition indicates that there could be 2 million children living with a condition that needs surgical consultation or treatment in Malawi. Congenital anomalies cause significant numbers of deaths among Malawian children. Children living with surgical conditions had disorders in their extremities, causing severe disability. Many of these disorders could have been corrected by surgical care.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Connor Orrico ◽  
Jon Zelasko ◽  
Vinny Polsinelli ◽  
Vijay Aswani

Abstract Objectives Both chronic and acute malnutrition in children under 5 remain a persistent problem in low and low-middle income countries. Haiti faces the highest burden of childhood malnutrition in the Western Hemisphere. We attempted to describe the prevalence of malnutrition in children in a farming community in Haiti and record characteristics of the those experiencing the disease. Methods A household survey was conducted within the town of Fontaine in the Nord department of Haiti on all children under the age of 5. A total of 535 children were assessed. Anthropometric data was taken on the children and household information was assessed via a population-based survey. Results Of the children assessed, 28% (149/535) were either chronically or acutely malnourished. Of the children who were malnourished: 36.4% (43/118) had 3 or more bouts of diarrhea in the past 3 months and only 5.3% (7/132) had stopped breastfeeding before 1 year of age. On average, the mothers of these children had completed 6.2 years of formal schooling. A slight majority of mothers, 54.7% (81/148), either “never” or “rarely” were concerned their child was malnourished. Of the households with malnourished children 88.4% (130/147) had reported running out of food in the last month. When asked what caused children in Fontaine to be malnourished, mothers of malnourished children cited a lack of food, 56.2% (82/146), and a lack of access to employment, 25.3% (37/146), most frequently. Conclusions Malnutrition commonly affects children in Fontaine. Efficacious prevention interventions could possibly include decreasing food insecurity, or increasing girls’ education level. Funding Sources None.


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