scholarly journals Identification of Weather Influences on Flight Punctuality Using Machine Learning Approach

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Sakdirat Kaewunruen ◽  
Jessada Sresakoolchai ◽  
Yue Xiang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climate Resilience

One of the top long-term threats to airport resilience is extreme climate-induced conditions, which negatively affect the airport and flight operations. Recent examples, including hurricanes, storms, extreme temperatures (cold/hot), and heavy rains, have damaged airport facilities, interrupted air traffic, and caused higher operational costs. With the development of civil aviation and the pre-COVID-19 surging demand for flights, the passengers’ complaints of flight delay increased, according to FoxBusiness. This study aims to discover the weather factors affecting flight punctuality and determine a high-dimensional scale of consequences stemming from weather conditions and flight operational aspects. Machine learning has been developed in correlation with the weather and statistical data for operations at Birmingham Airport as a case study. The cross-correlated datasets have been kindly provided by Birmingham Airport and the Meteorological Office. The scope and emphasis of this study is placed on the machine learning application to practical flight punctuality prediction in relation to climate conditions. Random forest, artificial neural network, support vector machine, and linear regression are used to develop predictive models. Grid-search and cross-validation are used to select the best parameters. The model can grasp the trend of flight punctuality rates well where R2 is 0.80 and the root mean square error (RMSE) is less than 15% using the model developed by random forest technique. The insights derived from this study will help Airport Authorities and the Insurance industry in predicting the scale of consequences in order to promptly enact and enable adaptative airport climate resilience plans, including air traffic rescheduling, financial resilience to climate variances and extreme weather conditions.

scholarly journals Risk Prediction for Winter Road Accidents on Expressways

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 9534
Author(s):  
Daeseong Kim ◽  
Sangyun Jung ◽  
Sanghoo Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Road Accidents ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Geometry

Road accidents caused by weather conditions in winter lead to higher mortality rates than in other seasons. The main causes of road accidents include human carelessness, vehicle defects, road conditions, and weather factors. If the risk of road accidents with changes in road weather conditions can be quantitatively evaluated, it will contribute to reducing the road accident fatalities. The road accident data used in this study were obtained for the period 2017 to 2019. Spatial interpolation estimated the weather information; geographic information system (GIS) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data identified road geometry and accident area altitude; synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) addressed the data imbalance problem between road accidents due to weather conditions and from other causes, and finally, machine learning was performed on the data using various models such as random forest, XGBoost, neural network, and logistic regression. The training- to test data ratio was 7:3. Random forest model exhibited the best classification performance for road accident status according to weather risks. Thus, by applying weather data and road geometry to machine learning models, the risk of road accidents due to weather conditions in the winter season can be predicted and provided as a service.

scholarly journals Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Air Quality

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (24) ◽  
pp. 9151
Author(s):  
Yun-Chia Liang ◽  
Yona Maimury ◽  
Angela Hsiang-Ling Chen ◽  
Josue Rodolfo Cuevas Juarez
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Adaptive Boosting ◽  
Series Of Experiments ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Air, an essential natural resource, has been compromised in terms of quality by economic activities. Considerable research has been devoted to predicting instances of poor air quality, but most studies are limited by insufficient longitudinal data, making it difficult to account for seasonal and other factors. Several prediction models have been developed using an 11-year dataset collected by Taiwan’s Environmental Protection Administration (EPA). Machine learning methods, including adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest, stacking ensemble, and support vector machine (SVM), produce promising results for air quality index (AQI) level predictions. A series of experiments, using datasets for three different regions to obtain the best prediction performance from the stacking ensemble, AdaBoost, and random forest, found the stacking ensemble delivers consistently superior performance for R2 and RMSE, while AdaBoost provides best results for MAE.

BioSignal modelling for prediction of cardiac diseases using intra group selection method

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-160
Author(s):  
Hemant P. Kasturiwale ◽  
Sujata N. Kale
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Nervous System ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Normal Sinus Rhythm ◽  
Heart Defects ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Autonomous Nervous System ◽  
Cardiac Diseases ◽  
Vast Number ◽  
Proposed Model

The Autonomous Nervous System (ANS) controls the nervous system and Heart Rate Variability (HRV) can be used as a diagnostic tool to diagnose heart defects. HRV can be classified into linear and nonlinear HRV indices which are used mostly to measure the efficiency of the model. For prediction of cardiac diseases, the selection and extraction features of machine learning model are effective. The available model used till date is based on HRV indices to predict the cardiac diseases accurately. The model could hardly throw light on specifics of indices, selection process and stability of the model. The proposed model is developed considering all facet electrocardiogram amplitude (ECG), frequency components, sampling frequency, extraction methods and acquisition techniques. The machine learning based model and its performance shall be tested using the standard BioSignal method, both on the data available and on the data obtained by the author. This is unique model developed by considering the vast number of mixtures sets and more than four complex cardiac classes. The statistical analysis is performed on a variety of databases such as MIT/BIH Normal Sinus Rhythm (NSR), MIT/BIH Arrhythmia (AR) and MIT/BIH Atrial Fibrillation (AF) and Peripheral Pule Analyser using feature compatibility techniques. The classifiers are trained for prediction with approximately 40000 sets of parameters. The proposed model reaches an average accuracy of 97.87 percent and is sensitive and précised. The best features are chosen from the different HRV features that will be used for classification. The present model was checked under all possible subject scenarios, such as the raw database and the non-ECG signal. In this sense, robustness is defined not only by the specificity parameter, but also by other measuring output parameters. Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-nearest Neighbour (KNN), Ensemble Adaboost (EAB) with Random Forest (RF) are tested in a 5% higher precision band and a lower band configuration. The Random Forest has produced better results, and its robustness has been established.

scholarly journals Prediction of Healing Performance of Autogenous Healing Concrete Using Machine Learning

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 4068
Author(s):  
Xu Huang ◽  
Mirna Wasouf ◽  
Jessada Sresakoolchai ◽  
Sakdirat Kaewunruen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Self Healing ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Cracks typically develop in concrete due to shrinkage, loading actions, and weather conditions; and may occur anytime in its life span. Autogenous healing concrete is a type of self-healing concrete that can automatically heal cracks based on physical or chemical reactions in concrete matrix. It is imperative to investigate the healing performance that autogenous healing concrete possesses, to assess the extent of the cracking and to predict the extent of healing. In the research of self-healing concrete, testing the healing performance of concrete in a laboratory is costly, and a mass of instances may be needed to explore reliable concrete design. This study is thus the world’s first to establish six types of machine learning algorithms, which are capable of predicting the healing performance (HP) of self-healing concrete. These algorithms involve an artificial neural network (ANN), a k-nearest neighbours (kNN), a gradient boosting regression (GBR), a decision tree regression (DTR), a support vector regression (SVR) and a random forest (RF). Parameters of these algorithms are tuned utilising grid search algorithm (GSA) and genetic algorithm (GA). The prediction performance indicated by coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) measures of these algorithms are evaluated on the basis of 1417 data sets from the open literature. The results show that GSA-GBR performs higher prediction performance (R2GSA-GBR = 0.958) and stronger robustness (RMSEGSA-GBR = 0.202) than the other five types of algorithms employed to predict the healing performance of autogenous healing concrete. Therefore, reliable prediction accuracy of the healing performance and efficient assistance on the design of autogenous healing concrete can be achieved.

scholarly journals Possibility of Autonomous Estimation of Shiba Goat’s Estrus and Non-Estrus Behavior by Machine Learning Methods

Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 771
Author(s):  
Toshiya Arakawa
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Markov Models ◽  
Tracking System ◽  
Video Tracking ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

Mammalian behavior is typically monitored by observation. However, direct observation requires a substantial amount of effort and time, if the number of mammals to be observed is sufficiently large or if the observation is conducted for a prolonged period. In this study, machine learning methods as hidden Markov models (HMMs), random forests, support vector machines (SVMs), and neural networks, were applied to detect and estimate whether a goat is in estrus based on the goat’s behavior; thus, the adequacy of the method was verified. Goat’s tracking data was obtained using a video tracking system and used to estimate whether they, which are in “estrus” or “non-estrus”, were in either states: “approaching the male”, or “standing near the male”. Totally, the PC of random forest seems to be the highest. However, The percentage concordance (PC) value besides the goats whose data were used for training data sets is relatively low. It is suggested that random forest tend to over-fit to training data. Besides random forest, the PC of HMMs and SVMs is high. However, considering the calculation time and HMM’s advantage in that it is a time series model, HMM is better method. The PC of neural network is totally low, however, if the more goat’s data were acquired, neural network would be an adequate method for estimation.

Utilizing Data-Driven Models to Predict Brittleness in Tuscaloosa Marine Shale: A Machine Learning Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamal Ahmadov
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Brittleness Index ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Marine Shale ◽  
Effective Manner ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract The Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) formation is a clay- and liquid-rich emerging shale play across central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi with recoverable resources of 1.5 billion barrels of oil and 4.6 trillion cubic feet of gas. The formation poses numerous challenges due to its high average clay content (50 wt%) and rapidly changing mineralogy, making the selection of fracturing candidates a difficult task. While brittleness plays an important role in screening potential intervals for hydraulic fracturing, typical brittleness estimation methods require the use of geomechanical and mineralogical properties from costly laboratory tests. Machine Learning (ML) can be employed to generate synthetic brittleness logs and therefore, may serve as an inexpensive and fast alternative to the current techniques. In this paper, we propose the use of machine learning to predict the brittleness index of Tuscaloosa Marine Shale from conventional well logs. We trained ML models on a dataset containing conventional and brittleness index logs from 8 wells. The latter were estimated either from geomechanical logs or log-derived mineralogy. Moreover, to ensure mechanical data reliability, dynamic-to-static conversion ratios were applied to Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. The predictor features included neutron porosity, density and compressional slowness logs to account for the petrophysical and mineralogical character of TMS. The brittleness index was predicted using algorithms such as Linear, Ridge and Lasso Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Random Forest, AdaBoost and Gradient Boosting. Models were shortlisted based on the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value and fine-tuned using the Grid Search method with a specific set of hyperparameters for each model. Overall, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest outperformed other algorithms and showed an average error reduction of 5 %, a normalized RMSE of 0.06 and a R-squared value of 0.89. The Gradient Boosting was chosen to evaluate the test set and successfully predicted the brittleness index with a normalized RMSE of 0.07 and R-squared value of 0.83. This paper presents the practical use of machine learning to evaluate brittleness in a cost and time effective manner and can further provide valuable insights into the optimization of completion in TMS. The proposed ML model can be used as a tool for initial screening of fracturing candidates and selection of fracturing intervals in other clay-rich and heterogeneous shale formations.

scholarly journals Machine learning for identification of surgeries with high risks of cancellation

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Luo ◽  
Fengyi Zhang ◽  
Yao Yao ◽  
RenRong Gong ◽  
Martina Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Sampling Methods ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Stable Performance ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Surgery cancellations waste scarce operative resources and hinder patients’ access to operative services. In this study, the Wilcoxon and chi-square tests were used for predictor selection, and three machine learning models – random forest, support vector machine, and XGBoost – were used for the identification of surgeries with high risks of cancellation. The optimal performances of the identification models were as follows: sensitivity − 0.615; specificity − 0.957; positive predictive value − 0.454; negative predictive value − 0.904; accuracy − 0.647; and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve − 0.682. Of the three models, the random forest model achieved the best performance. Thus, the effective identification of surgeries with high risks of cancellation is feasible with stable performance. Models and sampling methods significantly affect the performance of identification. This study is a new application of machine learning for the identification of surgeries with high risks of cancellation and facilitation of surgery resource management.

scholarly journals Feature Selection and Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms in Classification of Grazing and Rumination Behaviour in Sheep

Sensors ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 3532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Mansbridge ◽  
Jurgen Mitsch ◽  
Nicola Bollard ◽  
Keith Ellis ◽  
Giuliana Miguel-Pacheco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Time Budget ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Eating Behaviour ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Optimum Number ◽  
Eating Behaviours ◽  
Adaptive Boosting

Grazing and ruminating are the most important behaviours for ruminants, as they spend most of their daily time budget performing these. Continuous surveillance of eating behaviour is an important means for monitoring ruminant health, productivity and welfare. However, surveillance performed by human operators is prone to human variance, time-consuming and costly, especially on animals kept at pasture or free-ranging. The use of sensors to automatically acquire data, and software to classify and identify behaviours, offers significant potential in addressing such issues. In this work, data collected from sheep by means of an accelerometer/gyroscope sensor attached to the ear and collar, sampled at 16 Hz, were used to develop classifiers for grazing and ruminating behaviour using various machine learning algorithms: random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), k nearest neighbour (kNN) and adaptive boosting (Adaboost). Multiple features extracted from the signals were ranked on their importance for classification. Several performance indicators were considered when comparing classifiers as a function of algorithm used, sensor localisation and number of used features. Random forest yielded the highest overall accuracies: 92% for collar and 91% for ear. Gyroscope-based features were shown to have the greatest relative importance for eating behaviours. The optimum number of feature characteristics to be incorporated into the model was 39, from both ear and collar data. The findings suggest that one can successfully classify eating behaviours in sheep with very high accuracy; this could be used to develop a device for automatic monitoring of feed intake in the sheep sector to monitor health and welfare.

scholarly journals Phybrata Sensors and Machine Learning for Enhanced Neurophysiological Diagnosis and Treatment

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (21) ◽  
pp. 7417
Author(s):  
Alex J. Hope ◽  
Utkarsh Vashisth ◽  
Matthew J. Parker ◽  
Andreas B. Ralston ◽  
Joshua M. Roper ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Binary Classification ◽  
Classification Performance ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Use Case ◽  
Signal Features ◽  
Test Population

Concussion injuries remain a significant public health challenge. A significant unmet clinical need remains for tools that allow related physiological impairments and longer-term health risks to be identified earlier, better quantified, and more easily monitored over time. We address this challenge by combining a head-mounted wearable inertial motion unit (IMU)-based physiological vibration acceleration (“phybrata”) sensor and several candidate machine learning (ML) models. The performance of this solution is assessed for both binary classification of concussion patients and multiclass predictions of specific concussion-related neurophysiological impairments. Results are compared with previously reported approaches to ML-based concussion diagnostics. Using phybrata data from a previously reported concussion study population, four different machine learning models (Support Vector Machine, Random Forest Classifier, Extreme Gradient Boost, and Convolutional Neural Network) are first investigated for binary classification of the test population as healthy vs. concussion (Use Case 1). Results are compared for two different data preprocessing pipelines, Time-Series Averaging (TSA) and Non-Time-Series Feature Extraction (NTS). Next, the three best-performing NTS models are compared in terms of their multiclass prediction performance for specific concussion-related impairments: vestibular, neurological, both (Use Case 2). For Use Case 1, the NTS model approach outperformed the TSA approach, with the two best algorithms achieving an F1 score of 0.94. For Use Case 2, the NTS Random Forest model achieved the best performance in the testing set, with an F1 score of 0.90, and identified a wider range of relevant phybrata signal features that contributed to impairment classification compared with manual feature inspection and statistical data analysis. The overall classification performance achieved in the present work exceeds previously reported approaches to ML-based concussion diagnostics using other data sources and ML models. This study also demonstrates the first combination of a wearable IMU-based sensor and ML model that enables both binary classification of concussion patients and multiclass predictions of specific concussion-related neurophysiological impairments.

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